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Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Oregon population growth slows to 1.14% per year

The new federal census data shows that Oregon's population grew at the annual rate of 1.14% over the last 10 years. In the previous decade (the 1990s), the growth rate was 1.87% per year. The decade before that (the 1980s), the annual growth rate was a mere 0.77%. In the 1970's, it was 2.33%. Over the last 40 years, the rate was 1.52%.

For 2010, the federal census showed 3,831,074 Oregonians, and we believe that's as of April 1. The Portland State University population experts put the number at 3,844,195 as of July 1 -- or 13,121 more than the feds. Adjusting for a quarter's growth, the two estimates are only about 2,000 people apart.

Comments (10)

Any projections on when we can expect the 1M new people in the Portland-are who'll be riding all those MAX/streetcar lines?

Interesting to compare population growth with housing over the same decade. Nationwide, housing unit growth (extrapolating from 2009 data) was about 2.5 percentage points higher than population growth over the decade 2000 to 2010.

It will probably take 3 to 4 years total to work the resulting excess housing inventory out of the system. Since the cleansing process started in earnest two years ago, that means it will be probably be another one to two years before the housing start economic engine revs up to offer significant support for economic recovery. The home purchase tax credits were a gigantic waste -- only time heals this wound.

But . . . but . . . but . . . 1 million people are gonna come, right? Metro said so! We still gotta build streetcars and condos!

Shush up all of you...Metro will come in and shut down this website because it is not in line with their population growth forecasts that dictate "smart growth" and light rail and streetcars everywhere...

Oregon growing? What a laugh now that Washington gained another seat in Congress, doubling our robust population growth projections.

New rule:

From now on any politician that wants to gamble public funds for a new project based on theoretical population growth needs to post their PERS retirement as collateral for the project.

You guys aren't keeping up with the meme. It's time for Metro to debate whether or not to expand the UGB. So during these times, the planners emphasize that there will be next to no growth, and we won't need any land.

Once Metro has officially declined to expand the UGB, THEN we start talking about the one million again.

...annual rate of 1.14% over the last 10 years

Interesting. And the birth rate for the US in 2009 was 1.38%.

There is also statistical analysis of household formation growth, which I believe has averaged between 1.5 and 2.5 percent a year, but actually shrank the past year or two. Given that, and all the mortgage issues still being digested in the banking/financial system, I would be surprised if the excess housing would be absorbed within the next two years. Also hard to be purchasing a house (and even keeping the one nominally owned) when unemployment continues around the 10% mark.

Annual rate of growing of Oregon 1.14% over the last 10 years! Does this surprise anyone of you?

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