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Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Weekend with Clifford

We can't remember ever having a 20-point underdog in our charity pro football prognostication game. If we did have one, it was long, long ago. But that's what we've got as the headliner of this week's contests:

20 INDIANAPOLIS at New England
13 ST. LOUIS at San Francisco
8.5 DETROIT at New Orleans
7.5 KANSAS CITY at Chicago
7 NEW YORK GIANTS vs. Green Bay
6.5 CLEVELAND vs. Baltimore
6.5 CINCINNATI at Pittsburgh
4.5 ARIZONA vs. Dallas
3.5 CAROLINA at Tampa Bay
3 WASHINGTON vs. New York Jets
3 OAKLAND at Miami
2.5 JACKSONVILLE vs. San Diego
2.5 HOUSTON vs. Atlanta
2.5 SEATTLE vs. Philadelphia (Thursday, 5:20 p.m.)
1.5 TENNESSEE at Buffalo

As the season slips into December, our players who are far behind may need to throw deep. But Indy over New England? Jeepers.

Contestants picking Seattle need to have their pick in by kickoff on Thursday afternoon Pacific time. For all other games, the deadline is Sunday morning at 10 Pacific. Good luck with the choices, folks.

UPDATE, 8:49 p.m.: We checked -- there has never been a 20-point 'dog since we started playing the game on this blog in 2009. The previous big dog was 17 OAKLAND at San Diego, Week 8, Nov. 1, 2009. Nobody took the Raiders, who lost, 24-16.

UPDATE, 11/30, 9:06 p.m.: More on big 'dog history here. And the final line for the week:

2 DENVER at Minneota

Comments (6)

Do you hear what I hear from the bottom of the pile-- "Hail Mary"!

Are we waiting on the Broncos at Vikings?I'm curious what the oddsmakers are going to say about Tebow this week...

We are still waiting for official odds on that game. If it's a "pick-'em," then of course, it's off our board.

"Mojo's Best Bets"
Knick-Knack Patswhack Edition (GO, INDY!)

"Best Bets"
(Last week: 0-1; overall 12-15)

JACKSONVILLE (+2.5) vs San Diego -- An angry cat is very dangerous, especially for a dazed prey that staggers right into the cat's lair. The Jacksonville Jaguars have had a very disappointing season and caused their beloved coach, Jack Del Rio, to get fired earlier this week. They will be motivated by professional pride to vindicate their season, starting with a win at home against the hard-luck San Diego team that's coming in on a horrid 6-game losing streak. The Chargers' coach, Norv Turner, might as well start bouncing up & down on that plank he's been standing on the past three weeks -- and get ready to take his swan dive -- because another loss to an inferior opponent should get him the heave-ho!

OAKLAND (+3) at Miami -- Miami will not be able to stop Oakland's running game and reanimated passing attack now that QB Carson Palmer's getting comfortable in his third week there. Oakland's defense will be inspired to win this one on the road and be the difference-makers in memory of Raiders retired great DT Chester McGlockton, who died suddenly Wednesday at the age of 42.

"Upset Special"
(Last week 0-1; overall 2-10)

U-Pick:

NY GIANTS (+7) vs Green Bay -- Hey, the Giants could actually pull off an upset of the undefeated (11-0) Packers, if the Giants defense rises to the occasion in this home game. Green Bay's got a slew of injuries to key defensive players, so if the Giants can get back to their power running game, control the ball and the clock, minimize Packers QB Aaron Rodgers opportunities to score, and have their defense give the boisterous home crowd splash plays and key moments to roar for, some lucky dogs could pick up a 7. The Packers' injury list combined with the Giants' collective talent coming off bumped this game up from the "Gamblers Corner" to be an "Upset Special." The Giants' loss this week of starting LT Will Beatty for the season is a cause for pause here, though.

KANSAS CITY (+7.5) at Chicago -- The Bears are banged up at QB and especially in the secondary, while the Chiefs come into this game with only two players listed with any injury issues. Perhaps surprising to some in the metropolitan Chicago area, the KC defense should have the edge in this game over the Bears defense, when it comes to stopping the opponent. This game will likely come down to a battle of the back-up QBs between Chicago's Caleb Hanie & KC's Tyler Palko, with perhaps a special teams play, fumble or pass-interference penalty determining the outcome. Former Bears castoff QB Kyle Orton, acquired by KC last week off waivers from Denver, may be called on to face his former team if Palko doesn't get clicking by halftime. This is a must-win game for the Chiefs to continue to hope to have any chance at getting into the playoffs buy winning their very weak AFC West Division.

"Gamblers Corner"

CLEVELAND (6.5) at Baltimore -- I can't believe this spread isn't 10 or more. If the Browns win this game against the hated Art Model's Ravens team, they'll be burning couches in the streets all the way from Lorain to Mentor.

Baltimore ~ Randy Newman, live
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rcSb8LgPQc


CINCINNATI (+6.5) at Pittsburgh -- Pittsburgh's poor offensive performance against a good Kansas City defense last week, coupled with the Steelers close-shave win over Cinci just two weeks before that, should embolden the brash Bengals who could come to "The Forks of the Ohio" and upset the Steelers yet again, as they have numerous times in the history between these two division rivals. Pittsburgh all-pro safety, and Oregon's Polynesian homeboy Troy Polamalu, is expected to start, and QB Ben Roethlisberger, his running backs and receivers, and their skilled offensive coordinator, Bruce Arians, will be determined to unleash their full array of weaponry and firepower on Sunday.

Note: So far, I have Bengals QB Andy Dalton as my NFL Rookie of the Year over Carolina Panthers Cam Newton. This will be a good pro football game to watch this weekend for pure football pleasure, maybe even better than NY-GB. Not including the potential joy of watching the taboo pick of a Colts' win over the Patriots come to pass.

DETROIT (+8) at New Orleans -- Do you really believe that the Lions can come into Saints' star QB Drew Brees' home stadium without their top defensive player (the thuggish & now-suspended maniac, Ndamukong Suh), coupled with this news? --

The injury problems in the Detroit Lions' secondary aren't getting any better.

Starters Louis Delmas and Chris Houston missed practice for a second straight day today, with knee injuries sustained in last week's Thanksgiving loss to the Green Bay Packers. Backup cornerback Brandon McDonald, who suffered a quadriceps injury in the same game, returned to practice briefly but left during individual drills to work on the side with trainers.

The Lions play a New Orleans Saints team on Sunday that leads the NFL in passing and total offense. (excerpt from Detroit Free Press Nov. 30 article, "Injured Lions defensive backs miss another practice today")

....Well, if you do, good luck. It's probably going to be over before halftime. Detroit has an established pattern this season of falling way behind in the first half of games to average teams, when the Lions are healthy. They've made several dramatic comebacks earlier this season. BUT, they're ravaged now, and missing some key defenders and offensive players. This weekend the hyenas will be laughing at the Lions: "Who dat?"

ST. LOUIS (+13) at San Francisco -- A great running back carrying the Rams on his back can't come close to being enough for a severely depleted St. Louis team to come onto the 9-2 49ers home field and steal a win -- especially after San Francisco is coming off such a tough prime-time Thanksgiving night loss to Baltimore.

INDIANAPOLIS (+20) at New England -- With an eye-popping 20 pt. spread, this game was the topic of its own blog post here yesterday. Meanwhile, in the end, New England and their Mad Scientist/Coach Bill Belichik may well rue this day. Sic 'em!

A preview:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7XRil07h5uE

Lions' Suh adopts coaches' phony persona
"Jim Schwartz and Bo Pelini enabled Ndamukong Suh to become the overagressive player that he is." By Jen Floyd Engle
http://www.foxsportsdetroit.com/11/30/11/Suh-adopts-coachs-phony-persona/landing_lions.html?blockID=615548&feedID=3706

Typo on NY-GB explanation -- should've read instead as:

The Packers' injury list combined with the Giants' collective talent coming off a stinging 3-game losing streak, bumped this game up from the "Gamblers Corner" to be an "Upset Special."




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