More on that giant 'dog
There's a 20-point underdog in the NFL this week -- Indianapolis at New England -- and players in our charity pro football prediction game have got to consider whether there's any chance that that particular Hail Mary could be answered. In this regard, a knowledgable reader writes:
I do gaming research for clients and I asked who was the biggest NFL underdog to win. Still no answer, but since 2000 the biggest were two teams at 14½ points. Nothing higher -- and there was one 24-point underdog that lost, which was the highest spread in 12 years. In college football (more games, less parity), the biggest outright winning underdog was Stanford (2007) vs USC. They were 42-point dogs, but won outright, 24 to 23. Oregon State beat Washington in 1985 as a 36-point dog -- the third-highest spread of a winning dog.
There is, of course, always a first time, which is why they play the games.
| Posted at 11:45 AM | Permalink |
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Comments (9)
And, we're talking professionals playing for the Colts in that game (their defensive coordinator just got fired yesterday, and their head coach is under a lot of heat). The Colts have also switched quarterbacks, to their veteran back-up.
That Indy dog is gonna attract a bunch of hitchhikers. I think that in this contest, anyone with less than 20 pts. should seriously consider it. Certainly, anyone with less than 15 pts has little to lose in taking a flyer on it.
My goodness, just think: if you pick this one and it hits, wowie zowie, ya got a piece of some real historical action there, baby! Plus, you're back in contention here.
New England is getting nervous about this game and Coach Belichik is definitely over-preparing so as to avoid another life embarrassment. He might even be tempted to resume his cheating ways as insurance this week.
New Claim of Taping Emerges Against Patriots
February 22, 2008
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/22/sports/football/22patriots.html
Colts Daily Links: Singling out Coyer, line down to 20, no empathy from Belichick
http://www.indystar.com/article/20111130/SPORTS/111130004/Colts-Daily-Links-Singling-out-Coyer-line-down-20-no-empathy-from-Belichick
Since 1978, NFL teams favored by 20 or more points are 9-0 straight up. But they are only 2-7 against the point spread. The biggest favorites ever to lose a game straight up were the 1995 Cowboys, who fell to the Redskins despite being 17 1/2-point favorites.
New England Has No Shot Against Indianapolis
The Wall Street Journal
November 29, 2011
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203802204577066290969703220.html
Posted by Mojo | November 30, 2011 12:20 PM
P.S. -- In 1995, the Cowboys won the Super Bowl, even though they got whacked by Washington in a regular season game where the Cowboys were favored by 17.5 pts. Washington actually swept that season's division series against the Cowboys that year.
1995 Dallas Cowboys Statistics & Players
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/dal/1995.htm
Some people consider the Patriots to be this year's 1995 Cowboys: destined for the Super Bowl. Maybe, maybe not -- and maybe they'll have a stumble to Indy just as Dallas did to Washington in '95....
Posted by Mojo | November 30, 2011 12:39 PM
20 points is a lot of spread to cover. If you're a betting person, might be worth a shot. My prediction, Patriots will win, but not by 20.
Posted by Andy | November 30, 2011 1:11 PM
It's a sucker bet and Indy has no chance. Unless of course you are getting the points and for the underdog tourney you're not. Don't be lured in by the spread. Best bet of the week - Oakland
Posted by Gibby | November 30, 2011 1:14 PM
I agree that Oakland is a best bet, with Jacksonville a second choice there. I'll have KC as the "Upset Special" and keep Indy with Cinci and the NYGiants in the "Gamblers Corner."
Posted by Mojo | November 30, 2011 2:24 PM
I seem to remember Tampa in its winless expansion season was a 28-point underdog to then-Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh.
Posted by Pete Rozelle | November 30, 2011 8:07 PM
Was the biggest this season the the Rams beating the Saints as 14 pt underdogs?
Posted by NorthwestT | November 30, 2011 10:02 PM
Yes, 14.5 points.
Posted by Jack Bog | November 30, 2011 10:09 PM
Pete Rozelle--The Google Machine tells me that the winless Bucs were a mere 24-point underdog to the two-time-defending-champion Steelers in December 1976. The Steelers covered, winning 42-0.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3120882
Posted by Paul Hamann | November 30, 2011 10:54 PM