Measure 64 is close, and going to get closer
Oregon Measure 64, restricting payroll deduction of union dues from government employees, was named this blog's Most Misleading Campaign of the election, on both sides. And it's going to go right down to the bitter end of the vote count. Right now, the measure is passing statewide by around 15,000 votes. In Multnomah County, where there are still more than 100,000 votes to count, it's being rejected by a margin of 62 percent to 38 percent. Unlike Merkley-Smith, where the Multnomah vote should bring it home for the lefties, on this measure it's going to be a real squeaker.
| Posted at 8:02 PM | Permalink |
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Comments (10)
It's going to fail, down to 13k ahead and with so many votes left in MultCo Sizemore bowls another 0fer....
Posted by Don | November 5, 2008 9:42 PM
Not really. Measure 57 is a big win for Sizemore.
As for 64, it's ahead by 13,000. The no's should pick up around 30,000 in Multnomah County, but lose around 12,000 around the rest of the state. It will be quite close -- less than 10,000 difference out of more than a million and a half votes.
Posted by Jack Bog | November 5, 2008 9:48 PM
Actually it could be closer than that. If you assume your 62-38 percentage continues that would only be 24,000 more votes in multnomah county. But that number doesn't include the down ticket undervote which I would expect to drop the multnomah pickup to the 18 K range.
Posted by Dylan | November 5, 2008 10:38 PM
The last numbers I ran, there were 408,589 ballots that hadn't been counted statewide. Of these, 147,575 were in Multnomah. I would project that as 90,773 no to 56,802 yes -- a 33,971 pickup, not counting the undervote. The down-ticket undervote so far is 7.45 percent compared to the Presidential election, and so call it 31,000.
Outside Multnomah, there were 261,014 ballots uncounted. I'm projecting 137,580 yes to 123,433 there, only a 14,146-vote difference, not counting the undervote. Factor in the undervote, and yes comes out at around 13,000.
That's an 18,000-vote swing, and 64 was ahead at that point by around 13,000.
Posted by Jack Bog | November 5, 2008 10:45 PM
Unfortunately, the latest county results are not coordinated with the "latest" statewide results shown by the Secretary of State. As a result, my math shows that M 64 will lose, just barely.
Posted by Dan Meek | November 6, 2008 1:18 AM
The state and the county aren't that far out of sync. But I agree with you -- if I had to call it, I'd say 64 is going to go down, but by only the slightest of margins.
Posted by Jack Bog | November 6, 2008 1:26 AM
We were right. It lost, currently by about 1% of the vote (16,000 votes). Mult Co. still has about 25,000 more votes to count, so the "no" margin will increase.
Posted by Dan Meek | November 6, 2008 1:56 PM
Hey at least now we know where most of the public employee union types live.
Posted by Steve | November 6, 2008 2:13 PM
Quick Point:
"Not really. Measure 57 is a big win for Sizemore."
Jack,
Measure 57 is a legislative referral meant to give Oregonians an option to 61. It is not a Sizemore measure...
Posted by Christa | November 6, 2008 3:36 PM
Duh! I know that. My point is that if it weren't for Sizemore/Mannix 61, there would have been no 57. The Legislature played defense, but we still passed what is essentially a major extension of Measure 11. That's a big win for the tough-on-crime crowd.
Posted by Jack Bog | November 6, 2008 4:36 PM