V, U, or L?
At this point the recession train has left the station; the financial and banking crisis train has left the station. The delusion that the US and advanced economies contraction would be short and shallow – a V-shaped six month recession – has been replaced by the certainty that this will be a long and protracted U-shaped recession that may last at least two years in the US and close to two years in most of the rest of the world. And given the rising risk of a global systemic financial meltdown the probability that the outcome could become a decade long L-shaped recession – like the one experienced by Japan after the bursting of its real estate and equity bubble – cannot be ruled out.
| Posted at 9:55 PM | Permalink |
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Comments (3)
Here is some more good news from George Soros, interviewed on Bill Moyers Journal.
http://masterpeace.wordpress.com/2008/10/10/george-soros-on-bill-moyers-journal/
Posted by none | October 10, 2008 10:32 PM
Roubini is known as "Dr. Doom" and for good reason.
Nevertheless, both Paul Krugman and George Soros believe that Treasury (Paulson) has acted too slowly and that whatever actions he takes may come too late.
Rumor(Bloomberg.com)has it that Treasury (Paulson) may pour cash into Goldman Sachs (suprised! surprise!) and Morgan Stanley. Why? Maybe he wants to bail out Goldman Sachs' Chief Operating Officer, John Winkelried, who has put his Nantucket estate on the market for $55 million.
The bailout/rescue is designed to benefit the profligate (grasshoppers) not the industrious (ants); it's just another of W's let-our-rich-friends-run-amok policies.
I wish I could say something positive, but I can't find a silver lining in this.
Posted by Grumpy | October 10, 2008 10:37 PM
V or U or L= heckuvajob W
Posted by genop | October 11, 2008 3:52 PM