Here's a new poll showing a seven-point spread. We'll bet the final results will be more like 10 or 12 points apart. The number of undecideds that Smith picks up now will be close to zero.

This is Ted lining up his ducks for 2014, I think. If he sees Jefferson as radioactive enough that he needs to get out in front of it, it doesn't speak well to Jefferson's chances this year. (Or any year, for that matter.)

I've wondered for a while whether Smith had his eyes on a bigger fish. Earl has to be retiring in the next few years, doesn't he? I mean he's got his city and congressional pensions locked-up by now. What's left to do?

Given two years to get his act together, could Smith make a run at Earl's seat? Who could challenge him in that time?

I'm sure Smith wants Blumenauer's gig, then Wyden's. If his father is still around, he'll try to rehabilitate Nutsy and get him into Congress. The problem is, there's probably more dirt out there on the guy, and not all of it is going to come out now. He's toast in this race, and so Wiener and Hales don't need to feed any more tidbits to Nigel. Those will be waiting for Nutsy's next try.

And you know there'll be another run for office, because he's unemployable otherwise.

I think it's time for Nutsy to seriously consider his Plan B option to a serious political career. He'll probably just keep milking the Bus Project cow is my bet. If he was serious about this entire run at a major office he should have made repair efforts with the assault victim before he entered the race. It's called hiring a lawyer who would contact her lawyer to explore the possibility of a confidentiality agreement or whatnot. Instead, he showed up at her house in violation of the no contact order, like a major creep, and then lied to the press about what actually happened. The victim was outraged by his lies and odd behavior, and authorized her attorney to turn the police report, etc. over to the press. The whole thing was a known embarrassment that they should gotten in front of over a year ago. The fact that Nutsy handled it all like a amateur is no surprise given his totally abysmal history of tracking details in his personal and professional life.

He'll spend the next year writing a screenplay: "Mr. Smith vs. Goldzilla and the Zombie Media." It'll go straight to NoTube, then after the divorce, he'll go to rehab.

Here's the latest dense spin from Blue Oregon:

"By announcing in advance that he would not engage in opposition research or negative campaigning, Jefferson Smith created a precious opportunity for the citizens of Portland. We were on the cusp of having a thoughtful, issue-driven campaign that could have been decided by an electorate that was steeped in substantive information about the candidates' views and philosophies. The people of Portland deserve such a campaign, and would have welcomed it.

But we didn't get it. Because the other candidate, for his own reasons, has been unwilling to go there."

Gee, maybe Smith wanted a campaign that didn't look at the candidates, but focused on the issues, because he knew he had a giant problem with who he really is. He wasn't being noble. He was being evasive - trying to hide his true identity. This was a race against the calendar - not against Hales. Smith needed to win before the voters had enough time to figure out what a cosmic jerk he really is.

He came close, too. He almost kept the lid on into October. One more month and he could have gotten away with it.

Close call, Portland.

The KATU poll still shows 33% undecided - I wonder if Wiener's next "surprise" has something to do with the BUS Project. There have been rumblings about misuse of funds, sex, drugs, and a lot more surrounding that entity for years. After seeing how Wiener has done business in prior campaigns, my guess is he has at least a couple more cards in the deck if the election could go either way.

I'll bet there's no more dirt slung. It's totally unnecessary. Smith is done.

Feeling contrary today, so I'll share the one instance I've ever seen where hitting a woman was appropriate: outside a bar I used to work at in college, pretty close to closing time. 2 guys are fighting (mostly grappling) with the usual amount of onlookers. Both were on their feet and I don't recall that one was winning more than the other. A young lady, presumably a girlfriend, comes out of the crowd, takes a big swing with her metal lunchbox-style purse, and hits one of the guys in the back of the head. Really connected, I was surprised the purse didn't break open. The guy turned around and dropped her with a single punch to the face. To me, that's the sort of extremem situation that might justify hitting a woman. Smith's case wasn't even close.

Jack, cudos galore on this one. You were way out in front, and still batting 1.000. I'd double down on your prediction.

Btw: "Elvis has left the building."

NEPguy -

Hey, whats wrong with consensual sex between human adults? (VBG).

One thing that I've realized during the Jefferson Smith trainwreck: it must be incredibly easy to win a state rep race in East Portland. There's plenty of people outside of Mark Weiner who know Jeffy is the kind of guy who has a past full of easy to find transgressions.

Smith probably didn't have the option to keep the lid on anything. It was just kept under wraps by the other side until it was needed. There may be more there, but I would not expect to see it till his next race.

Stanton...No you are wrong. The woman in your scenario should go to jail, but it is still no justifcation for the guy to punch her out.

He came close, too. He almost kept the lid on into October. One more month and he could have gotten away with it.

Bill, are you saying that the timing of the release was accidental? Come on. It was going to happen whenever Mark Wiener decided it was going to happen.

The tipping point wasn't the orchestrated leaks. The tipping point was Jefferson Smith going over to the woman's house at 8 a.m. on the same day he was about to shovel another load of BS to the Portland media and then returning to her house again to leave a note.

That was when this incident became something - not from 19 years ago - but from 2 weeks ago. That's where Jefferson Smith revealed himself and if he hadn't done that, the chain of events afterwards would be completely different.

That's when this went from the tipping point of a sofa, to the tipping point of a campaign.

"Tip-a-couch, and Smith, too!"

Bill is completely right about that one. I don't think Wiener had a copy of the police report when this got leaked. From what I understand, the police report came from the victim's lawyer...not Wiener. Also, I think it was a combination of Nutsy going over to the victim's home and the lies about what happened 20 years ago that pissed her off.

I hope the victim filed for a TRO since Smith's visit(s).
I certainly would have.

If I have to hear him whine one more time about how this was the worst day in HIS life, I think I'll vomit.

If you don't think Wiener is behind this story, you haven't been paying attention.

His unconvincing explanation was the real issue here. It was painfully obvious to everyone that he was keeping certain facts hidden. I don't mean the part about hitting on her earlier that day, I mean the part about full on hitting her in the face. He could have addressed that in a more forthcoming way. There's a definite pattern here, both with this incident, and with his traffic tickets. He tries to pre-empt the story and be forthcoming, but each time he leaves necessary details out. And each time the media (and public) sees right through it, and keeps digging.

Dittos to what Bill said.

Wiener may have had the police report in his hip pocket the whole time. It came from the victim's attorney according to the O articles. I have no doubt that Wiener or one of his minions leaked the basics of the story to the Willy Week and started the well timed media barrage. It could be that the victim tipped the Hales campaign and was laying in wait to let Nutsy hang himself before turning over the report. As they say in Sicily "revenge is a dish best served cold".

Look at it this way: Mark Wiener's modus operandi isn't a secret. It doesn't take much connecting the dots to see the planted nature of several stories in this thing. So if Jefferson Smith is such a brilliant person, how come he didn't know this was coming? Then once it came out, why would he go over in person to the woman's house at 8 a.m. in the morning the day of his press conference?

Doesn't that support my claims all along that he's an unbelievably shaky individual with little in the way of common sense? Isn't there something sinister about physically showing up at the house? He wasn't there to talk about the incident and listen. He had 19 years to find a way to do that.

Oh, and Mark Wiener didn't call him up at 7:30 a.m. and order him to do it, either. This is on Jefferson. If he's a victim at all, he's just a victim of being Jefferson Smith.

Agreed. Portland is dodging a bullet here. But it's about to get hit with another bullet -- and financially, it's a hollow-point.

Ya, while your waiting for the hollow point, you're gonna get hit with a ton of buck shot from the next mayor, the soon to be Honorable Charlie Hales, Mayor of Portland. read it and weep. :(

I agree with the financially hollow-point. I think the Dames, Williams, Edlens of the world slightly know times running short for the trough. But they each think my modest $million dollar cut on each project is small potatoes and won't be noticed. Hales won't say no.

I got questions without comment.
* How'd Wiener know? When did he know it?
* Is this the only police report the young lady ever filed? If she filed complaints other times, did she keep copies?
* Has she ever been the object of a complaint filed or incident investigation reported?
(Full disclosure somewhat: My questioning sense came in mind while looking at the plaintiff's astrology charts for June 12, 1975, as I recall the date from the police report. I luuuv that police work always notes d.o.b.)

I find it hard to believe that Smith's campaign did no opposition research.

Recently read the book "We're With Nobody" about opposition research----very interesting book, and lays bare the fact that anything in the public record can, and will, be used in a political fight. Makes one think that Smith must be a complete idiot, or outrageously arrogant, not to think this event wouldn't be called into play. Dirty as it may seem, it's not a smear----it's public record, and the fact that it's now come to light, along with everything else, makes the pattern clear.

Sad that Portland has to choose between this guy and Hales.

Sad indeed. Write in LaVonne Griffin-Valade.

Fiscal responsibility and independence in the Portland Mayor's office?