Why Brady failed
There'll be a lot of Monday morning quarterbacking today about the Portland mayoral election. How could a smart, accomplished woman like Eileen Brady, with literally a million dollars to spend, lose an election to a scatterbrained, unemployable community organizer like Jefferson Smith? There'll be all sorts of criticisms of the way she campaigned, where she spent her money, what she said, how she looked.
But the real reason Brady lost is that this is Portland, and in Portland, it's all about connections. Not what you know, but who you know. And Brady simply got out-connectioned by Charlie Hales and Smith.
Hales is a long-time shill for the real estate developer cabal. That's what he did on the City Council, and that's what he did for a living after he left. As we noted last night, this photo says it all -- that's Homer Williams, whose serial rape of the Portland city treasury knows no bounds, on the platform behind smiling, victorious Charlie. Regardless of what he might say to get elected, Hales will be all about slipping money, a lot of money, behind him to his right, to Williams and guys like him.
And it's not just the developers. Most of the West Hills money was behind Hales. Vera Katz sent up the endorsement smoke signal, Mike Lindberg was campaign treasurer -- it might as well have been Neil Goldschmidt himself patting Hales on the back. The people who own Portland need somebody they can trust to keep funneling the tax dough their way, and Hales is their man. Portland's tired mainstream media -- including Willamette Week, which is no longer an alternative publication, if it ever was one -- couldn't contain their enthusiasm for him.
Smith is just the old guard of the Democratic Party machine in a 30-something-year-old's clothing. His parents run that machine, and he has developed a little auxiliary of his own among the younger set. The soccer fops and the bike clowns love his affected weirdness. Then, importantly, he got the police and firefighters' unions to support him, and then the City Hall AFSCME local, and some teacher union types as well. Fireman Randy weighed in, signalling that Lil Jeffy would protect the PERS. Smith picked up some additional votes by opposing the Interstate 5 bridge, and he managed to deflect the many questions about his personal track record, which is spotty, to say the least.
So there Brady was, with the real estate sharpies and the Goldschmidtters behind Hales, and the party machine and government employees' unions behind Smith. What did she have to overcome that?
Well, she is a strong woman, which counts for something. She had run successful businesses, and she had lots of of rich backers -- including some real estate tycoons that would doubtlessly have moved in as most favored developer-welfare recipients had she prevailed. She said a lot of smart things. But the business on which she hung her star is not a union shop, and that cost her.
And when she tried to straddle jobs and "green," it didn't exactly work. We decided not to vote for Brady when we learned she supported (a) building the insane "sustainability center," (b) forcing light rail on Vancouver, and (c) paving over bald eagle habitat for a pointless Port of Portland shipping terminal on West Hayden Island.
But it wasn't the issues that killed Brady's candidacy. In the end, her initial traction simply wasn't enough to counter her fundamental lack of connections.
This is Portland. You either play along with the unions and the real estate dudes and the Goldschmidt people, or you stay on the outside of City Hall, looking in.
Comments (37)
Failed is understatement - She's almost up to a Scone levels of fail.
$1M for 17,000 votes = $58.82/vote
Unfortunately, she took the middle road.
Charlie had all the Neil-acolytes (plus the new gravy money like Homer BTW - Nice picture on the cover of the O) and Smith had the typical over-wrought Portland liberal vote.
If Brady had somehow nailed a couple of issues and just gotten an emotional connection (a la Smith), she might have had a chance. She just kept drifting.
Instead, she's a 2012 version of Sho Dozono.
I weep for Portland.
Posted by Steve | May 16, 2012 8:01 AM
She supported (a) building the insane "sustainability center," (b) forcing light rail on Vancouver, and (c) paving over bald eagle habitat for a pointless Port of Portland shipping terminal on West Hayden Island.
Sounds like Sam Adams' second term ...
Posted by Garage Wine | May 16, 2012 8:18 AM
So it's going to be one of these guys working with Steve Novick and probably Mary Nolan. We'll watch them come up with all sorts of big vanity projects to "fix" Portland. Trains, buildings, bikes, urban renewal from here to Gresham. Novick's local "health care solution" (heaven help us). And planning. Lots and lots of planning. Armies of planners.
Anything but actually improve the deteriorating core services that are the purpose of organizing a city government in the first place.
Posted by Snards | May 16, 2012 8:19 AM
Well I guess we can predict the future for the next 4 years.
Posted by Portland Native | May 16, 2012 8:20 AM
Don't blame me. The Mrs. and I voted for Scott Fernandez and Max Brumm.
Posted by Jack Bog | May 16, 2012 8:30 AM
I'm a great believer in Occam's Razor. While Jack's theory is as involved as it is inventive, Brady failed because she ran an uninspired campaign, proved to have little understanding of City government and its role, and persisted in flogging her "I founded New Seasons" campaign theme rather than honing down to specifics.
I've got teeth-rattling potholes on the main road to my house, we have an understaffed police department confronting a resurgent gang problem, and the City faces mass debt issues that will only grow in the future. "I founded New Seasons" was cute for a while, but it doesn't address any of these problems.
Posted by William Thompson | May 16, 2012 8:32 AM
"I founded New Seasons" was cute for a while, but it doesn't address any of these problems.
Saying "I'll fix your potholes" doesn't actually fix them. Hales is lying through his sneering upper lip when he tells you about his dedication to basic services. But you're right, Brady should have lied more.
proved to have little understanding of City government and its role
Guess I missed that one. She talked a lot about jobs. That's what every politician, at every level of government, is babbling about these days.
Posted by Jack Bog | May 16, 2012 8:36 AM
You mention Steve Novick, and it reminds me of the first "Uh-oh" moment of Eileen Brady's campaign. Early when Steve was contemplating a run for mayor he fired off a line about New Seasons, and it was funny:
"The salmon patties used to be crisp and tasty. But now they're soggy and bland. Is that the type of future we want for our city?"
I enjoyed that. I actually got my hopes up that this would be an entertaining campaign full of great exchanges. Steve had scored big, but he had definitely given Eileen Brady a chance to fire back. She could have gone right after the Old Boys Network that runs Portland, and played off the subtle sexism of wanting a woman to go cook something better.
She could have said that the only reason Steve Novick doesn't like salmon cakes is that he can't figure out a way to tax Hollandaise sauce. It wouldn't have been that hard. Show some fight for Christ sake.
Instead, Eileen Brady stepped forward and boldly agreed with Steve and said she had communicated his concerns to the chef there, or something lame like that.
She then proceeded to enter the fluff zone where she remained even through last night.
One other obvious example. When she was being challenged on her co-founder status, she did cartwheels trying to talk her way out of it.
Why not just say, "Hey, Jeffy's daddy bought the first bus for the Bus Project. Doesn't that make him the founder?"
It is tough to run while ahead, but Eileen Brady never got it - the Old Boys Network of Portland, and their screw-up sons we're going to come after.
She could afford to be nice, but not fluffy and nice.
Posted by Bill McDonald | May 16, 2012 8:45 AM
Yeah, Jack, but jobs for whom? The message imparted by the election seems to be "We plan to encourage job growth, alot of growth, by hiring all of our friends and supporters as soon as we can."
Not that it's particularly new, or unique to Portland. For instance, we just got the news out here about how the new Dallas Independent School District superintendant just fired 80 administrators:
http://www.wfaa.com/news/local/New-DISD-chief-cuts-dozens-of-executive-jobs-151646855.html
Considering that most of Texas's independent school districts are nothing but excuses for newly hired superintendants to bring on another four or five levels of administration to pile on the rest, hearing about anybody being given the axe is reason for shock. (We're notorious for beating on teacher's unions as a cause of school cost overruns, but the administrators and high school football are perpetual sacred cows.) However, what's barely noted in all of the hype is that the new DISD superintendant is opening up 50 new positions, and offering those laid-off administrators the opportunity to compete for them. Oh, I'll bet that he's looking for the brightest and the best...or the ones that have enough archived dirty secrets about the district that it's cheaper to keep them on board than to pay them off in legal action afterwards.
That's about what's going to happen here, no matter who wins. Big noises about jobs and about getting Portland working again, but it's not even about rearranging the Titanic's deck chairs. Instead, it's going to be about which otherwise unemployable hipster graphic designer is going to spend the next four years grunting out new propaganda videos.
Posted by Texas Triffid Ranch | May 16, 2012 8:57 AM
"Novick's local "health care solution" (heaven help us). And planning. Lots and lots of planning. Armies of planners."
Don't forget, Novick will go out of his way to tell you what a genius he is (I really wish he'd overcome his insecurity issues.)
So far, his economic plan is asking Kitz for health care money, asking Kitz for money to let people out of jail and parking meters - Lots of parking meters.
Posted by Steve | May 16, 2012 8:58 AM
Say what you will about connections, network etc, it still comes down to the voter. So long as the average voter does all that rationalization for backing up their weak arguments (vote for a winner, it doesn't matter, they are all crooks etc ad nauseam), so long as the voter refuses to look past commercials, newspaper editorials and the need for hand-holding, so long as the majority don't even vote, where do we stand?
Most of the time, nay, all the time, it takes only a few critical, attentive moments in the election cycle to spot the realities, as in the moment in the 2008 campaign when Obama actually voted for the extension of the wiretap provisions that convinced me we are in deep doo-doo. A person who cannot even vote his stated position while actually running is nothing less than prima facie evidence of his total cynicism of the average voter. And this carries into the just past primary. Buffoonery held the day. Two encounters with Smith was all I needed. And he beat Brady.
But I called it among my friends weeks ago. I said it would be the Hales-Smith runoff, despite the hope I had for Fernandez. Hales, because his name, Smith because he made people chuckle.
Well, if Smith actually does pull it off, we might as well change the name Portland to Bedrock. Then we can make money manufacturing stone wheels for our wooden convertibles.
Posted by Starbuck | May 16, 2012 9:04 AM
It is unlikely I would have ever voted for her(I support Hales by default) but the crystalline moment on Brady for me was one morning on Kremer and Abrams when she was confronted with the monumental waste associated with the CRC Project and she said, "Yes, its troubling, but we have to keep our place in line(for the kind of federal handouts that are bankrupting the country)."
Posted by Mark Ellis | May 16, 2012 9:11 AM
"They're gonna love it." Buh bye.
(I support Hales by default)
"Default" is a good word to keep in mind when considering where Char-Lie will lead Portland.
Posted by Jack Bog | May 16, 2012 9:19 AM
28% voter turnout - what does that tell you about people in this town? Most of them do not give a rat's a$$ about politics. They care so little, that they can't even be bothered to pencil-in a few ovals and slap a postage stamp on the envelope. Pitiful. God help us.
Posted by Frank | May 16, 2012 9:33 AM
My wife and I were for Brady prior to the debate, but she came off as an airhead and she lost us both. By airhead I mean she talked with no specifics compared to the others. She lost us then and we switched to Smith.
Posted by Mike Landfair | May 16, 2012 9:34 AM
You fell for a smoothie. Ask his old law firm about his work ethic. Check out his record for blowing off court dates and driving while suspended. Try to figure out the finances of his Super PAC and other crazy organizations. The guy's got problems. Now so do we.
Posted by Jack Bog | May 16, 2012 9:37 AM
Do sheep ever realize they are being led to slaughter?
Most people can't spend five minutes getting their head out of their posterior these days, so why would you expect the results to be any different?
Old money and greased-up machines continue to crank out the same ole, same ole and nobody really gives a care.
It's only when the blade starts slicing across the throat does the sheep pause to wonder, "will I go to heaven by streetcar?"
Posted by Tim | May 16, 2012 9:40 AM
28% voter turnout - what does that tell you about people in this town? Most of them do not give a rat's a$$ about politics
Or, that the City's residents have been screwed over so many times that they've given up caring - no matter what promises are made, no matter who is elected - the citizens get screwed.
Just as Hales cited how he did more with less...if you live in East Portland, you might as well buy a car and drive because with him, he's going to build a lot of Streetcars to the desirable neighborhoods and make TriMet pay for it - by cutting bus service to the eastern part of the city (and the S.W., and the North). Jefferson Smith will have to prove himself that he really is for the citizens, but as the Democratic Party has proven time and time again - the Republican Party isn't the only party for big business. The only difference is which businesses each party supports.
Posted by Erik H. | May 16, 2012 9:44 AM
I was an early supporter for Brady, but she lost me when:
* She continually supported the Sustainability Center, even after the legislature got smart and said "no money"
* She continually supported the new URA at PSU
* She bombed at both debates I watched
* She didn't stridently nail Hales to the wall with something along the lines of "Hey, Charlie... you either committed tax fraud or voter fraud... which is it?"
Posted by Larry Legend | May 16, 2012 9:50 AM
You're right to a certain point, Jack, but I think you're down-playing the fact that Brady was a plain dud. It only took seeing her in one debate performance for me to realize that there's not a whole lot of "there" there when it comes to Brady. All she did is repeat slogans, buzzwords, and catchprhases... it was pretty pathetic, really.
But all of that was hidden by her glossy campaign advertisements. You actually had to see her talk, which is why she started off so well but lost steam at the end.
Furthermore... unlike Hales and Smith, Brady was forceful in her support of the Portland State Urban Renewal Zone, the Sustainability Center, Tom Miller's "multi-modal" paradise of no paved roads, etc. Maybe it was just lip service, but at least Hales and Smith sounded reasonable on those issues. Brady just wanted to do it all... for green jobs or whatever.
Brady was a lightweight, through and through.
Posted by Strunk & White | May 16, 2012 9:52 AM
I kept meaning to vote...and the ballot kept sitting there, and it is still there. I think I used all my political mojo up with the charter school founding and the Adams recall. Demoralized isn't the word for it. More like deracinated, denervated, derailed, depressed, degraded, about our abysmal choices.
I saw a funny bumper sticker yesterday. "Defend freedom, defeat Obama". I thought about putting it on the bumper of my car, then parking the car someplace vulnerable, with the plan to take before and after pictures to submit to the Oregonian staff, not that they would publish them in a million years.
Posted by Gaye Harris | May 16, 2012 10:04 AM
At least Hales said he'll fire Tom Miller. That's about the only thing keeping me from sitting out the general.
Posted by Chuck | May 16, 2012 10:42 AM
Hales will fire Miller, but there is no guarantee that he'll replace him with anything better. Miller is just a silly idiot, Hales pick will most likely be a crook.
Posted by Andy | May 16, 2012 12:02 PM
For the politically engaged, hope springs eternal. I guess I'm hoping that Mr. Hales will get in touch with his inner fiscal conservative, perhaps read the Tea leaves at the bottom of the Clackamas cup, and govern more like a Mayor Giuliani. As I said, eternal...
Posted by Mark Ellis | May 16, 2012 12:07 PM
One should not forget, Brady like Sam Chase wants to add congestion pricing by tolling all the freeways in Portland. When will these people realize these types of moves take aim at eliminating family wage private sector self-sustainable jobs thereby killing the economy. It is no wonder why the Portland area has a track record of lost jobs and high unemplotment.
Posted by TR | May 16, 2012 12:52 PM
Jack,
Your second paragraph covers most of it. The rest gets filled in by the snake oil salesman. Smith did a better job with his adds than the competition. I'd never vote for him. But, I wouldn't bet against him and paraphrasing a line from "Chinatown". "Forget it, Jake. It's Portland".
Posted by David E Gilmore | May 16, 2012 1:02 PM
The truth about Eileen Brady is that she had nothing to offer the PEOPLE of Portland. Her claims to "co-founder" status, on examination, were exaggerated to the point of lost credibility. Her "feel-good" rhetoric never made me feel like she was in touch with the very cool but deeply suffering city I live in. Having bucketsful of unearned income also makes me skeptical how "real" her rhetoric was. Hales appears to be a tax cheat and liar who will stop at nothing to protect his "friends." The only choice for the totally powerless ordinary class is Smith. He surrounds himself with great people. He's in charge of his team and has their unwavering devotion. That speaks volumes. Mr. Bog, your perception needs an upgrade.
Posted by Kathleen O'Brien | May 16, 2012 1:26 PM
Bill's "fluff" piece on Brady says it all. I had hopes for a better campaign on the issues from her and the rest.
Her debates and radio interviews were fluff when she kept saying, "Jefferson is my friend", "he's a good guy", "I respect him". Gosh, Brady, it's a debate, separate yourself, I don't want to here how you love him, and once she used those exact words. The debate isn't about how you love someone.
And now that goes to Charlie and Jefferson. Get to the issues and stop saying "we'll need to consider the issue you have asked about, I'm concerned too". Tell us what you really think and what you will DO to enact your thinking so we can hold you accountable after you are elected. I don't want another study, commission, or blaming the state or feds why we have potholes.
Don't put too much credence in Hales saying he is concerned about pothole issues. If you like debt created by streetcars/lightrail vote for Hales. But then that applies to Smith too. Not good either way.
Posted by Lee | May 16, 2012 1:42 PM
"Don't forget, Novick will go out of his way to tell you what a genius he is (I really wish he'd overcome his insecurity issues.)"
Oh, come on now. It's time for us all to just relax and give Novick a hand. He won the election.
Posted by PD | May 16, 2012 2:10 PM
Weep, for we just went further down the road to the demise of our community.
We had an adult, one with integrity, Scott Fernandez willing to step up to deal with the mess, he has fought for years to save our water from being trashed by local ones who apparently are just fine with losing healthy drinking water and our water rights
to regional and/or global control. The water rate increases for businesses and citizens were a great concern. We were fortunate to have one who also understood the debt and financial problems of our city.
I was proud to support Fernandez.
Those of us who did, were out there but were excluded by the media. Press releases were sent about the urgency of our water and legal actions. Not a word. What does that tell you?
Four big pages of Hales brochure, not one whisper of the word water,
what does that tell you?
Jefferson who wouldn't even put water on his list of concerns at a town hall,
what does that tell you?
Brady from what I heard brought up some on the issue, but apparently had backed down,
what does that tell you?
What it tells me is that the two factions Jack mentioned and that I consider "insiders/apparently owners" of decisions made for we the people and our community have sold the commons out!
What it tells me is that the career politicians have sold us out.
What it tells me is that even the environmental groups do not get it or are going along for whatever reason, maybe getting grant money from certain places may have something to do with it.
What it tells me is that we have been sold!!!
Weep, some of us do know,
and as Tim mentioned:
It's only when the blade starts slicing across the throat does the sheep pause to wonder,.....
Weep, for it will have been too late.
Posted by clinamen | May 16, 2012 2:48 PM
give Novick a hand
Really?
Posted by Allan L. | May 16, 2012 2:50 PM
Kathleen O'Brien,
"Unwavering devotion"? Your description of Jefferson Smith's people is chilling. Unwavering devotion to somebody like this is a huge mistake. In fact unwavering devotion to any politician is a disaster.
You remind me of the many comments where a Jefferson Smith follower talks glowingly about how the young lawyer turned his back on his career so he could promote democracy. They sound like he's a saint, and I bet these are the some young people who will be writing comments down the road about how they were hook-winked.
Jefferson Smith is interested in power. He built a machine, ostensibly to help others, but as it has happened throughout history, the captivating leader slowly decides that the best way to use the machine is to help himself, and I say "himself" because it's usually a guy.
Unwavering devotion? That's the most dangerous phrase connected to this guy yet. It's right up there with a slogan on one of his many websites giving young people a place to feel like they're part of something. It said something like, "Once you're on the bus, you'll never want to get off."
You're a part of something all right. You're part of Jefferson Smith's power trip. Step back from the unwavering devotion, and the feel-good policies and ask yourself, "Who is this dude?" Remember that first person you really fell for who turned out to be a complete jerk later. This is that guy - only you'll have to wait four years to break up.
Posted by Bill McDonald | May 16, 2012 4:26 PM
This is disheartening. May have to change the name to "WestLinnGuy" or something similar. The choice to me appears to be between a bought and paid for surrogate of Williams Dame Development and an immature, irresponsible aspiring governor/senator who will use 75% of his time as mayor to set up the campaign for his next office. However, this is what the electorate wants - at a certain point it may be better for my mental health/stress level/ to just leave this city to those who want it to be run in this manner.
Posted by NEPguy | May 16, 2012 4:38 PM
Like in Chicago, this is more of the up and coming Portland Political Machine at work – a machine the less than objective media supports. Coverage of the full range of candidates is non-existent. Just look at who won. Hales is the darling of the fat cat developers. Smith is the Dem’s darling as is Nolin. Novick was a shoe in touting his attacks on Bill Sizemore with insider info from Fireman Randy. He once said he never saw a tax he didn’t like. Stacey is the darling of the environmentalists and Chase having been the Chief of Staff for City Commissioner Nick Fish is the insider darling for affordable housing advocates. All are part of the insider machine. All have insider contacts to raise large sums of money compared to many of their opponents. All have the potential and especially together have the ability to use their elite power to wreck the quality of life in neighborhoods with over densification and with their anti-car attitude. The likelihood is that most of them live in single family homes while telling others to live with more density in bunkers, themselves doing do their share of driving – especially while campaigning - while telling others to cut driving. All are likely to increase the cost of living for the working class with increased taxes and fees, no matter what they say or have said while on the campaign trail.
Brady is an outsider. Fritz even though she is an incumbent is also viewed as an outsider. The rest of the challengers were also outsiders. The government in Portland and at Metro is authoritarian controlled by the insiders. This includes the so-called citizen participation process which is broken and where vetting eliminates all but insiders including the usual subjects that always partiocipate.. Public open houses are just window dressing designed to support a preconceived conclusion. The numbers of usually one-sided attendees are touted as public support for any given project. Any dissenter comments are lost in the details. The City that is supposed to work only works to dictate to the public.
Posted by TR | May 16, 2012 6:01 PM
Overall - anyone in PDX who works for a living (without a trust fund) is basically screwed. Property taxes, fees and cost of any and all services will continue to climb. Basically, you are being robbed to make a few people rich, (to have a failing public school system) and to pay for insane salaries and benefits for public employees.
You have to get out of Multnomah County. And - if you're gonna bother to move you may as well leave Oregon or wait till you are pushed out.
Brady lost because she is unappealing, self-important, elitist and ran a crummy campaign. No experience but entitled to the top job. Three jokers ran and one of them will be mayor. Maybe he'll only show up 75% of the time like he did as a commissioner. We'd be better off.
Posted by links | May 16, 2012 8:54 PM
The two choices left are stark.
Posted by Jim Evans | May 17, 2012 2:11 AM
Jefferson Smith WAS president of the Beta fraternity when he was at UO. I guess that qualifies you to run this city as well as any other prior experience.
Posted by Chuck | May 17, 2012 7:28 AM