Smith will get all the labor support and most of the Obama voters (manly will simply leave the rest of their ballots blank after voting for Barack). This will be enough to put him over the top, much to the chagrin of willy week and the merc.

And by "manly" I meant "many"

It will be interesting to see if money trumps populism. I assume Hales will be the better funded candidate, but in Portland, who knows which way the wind will blow. I thought that with Brady both sides would be happy (ier), but the vote was split and now the centrists (such as they are in Pdx) need to choose.

Creepier - The Sequel

There's a reason Jefferson Smith starts out depicting Charlie Hales in, as you describe it, "a classic Portland bully move."
Jefferson Smith is the classic bully and the key move is to deflect from that. It's why George W. named his message "compassionate conservatism" - because he was missing the part of his soul where compassion lies.

Hopefully we'll all get a glimpse of the real Jefferson Smith, but people like this are very good at hiding. He's spent years using his smarts to cover his weirdness. And now the first takeaway from the new campaign is what a bully Hales is. That's classic all right.

For a second there, Jack, you really had me worried. Jefferson Smith, the next mayor? I had to calm my nerves by reviewing some of your posts about John Edwards. I think my favorite was one called, "Edwards: too nice a guy."

Smith's biggest asset in the general will be a likely high young/liberal turnout due to the close national presidential race. Hales has a more "solid" base in terms of turnout, but Smith has exponentially more upside in that department. Plus, my guess is Brady throws her support behind Smith.

I like to refer to this sort of poll as "taste-testing dog crap". Now if you'll excuse me, I'm buying a 55-gallon drum of Listerine and a belt sander. Don't wait up.

Hales Crowd-Status quo, light rail, Portland business, Goldy, CRC, Old money, 45+.

Smith Crowd-Keep it weird, labor, bicycle, green, 420, Occupy, anything-for-nothing, Sam II.

I think that covers the majority of the Portland electorate. Based on that, it is still a dead heat.

So, I've done a little bit of scientific doodling. Answer this question and vote for the other guy: Which one will bankrupt Portland first?

It's obvious, you have got to vote for......(hey, that's not right!,why the hell does this thing not work!?) ah, just a minute, I have to do some more tinkering.

Jack, sorry for my previous comment. I was not "too nice a guy" to go with that.

However, I've been a little bit freaked out ever since the comment from Katherine O'Brien yesterday about the "unwavering devotion" Jefferson's people have for him.

Fortunately I do write comedy for a living so I deal with stress through humor. I also know that Waco is a bit of a dated reference but these "unwavering devotion" things only crop up so often....thank goodness.

Anyway, I think we should refer to Jefferson's followers as the Bus Davidians.

The Bus Davidians. Funny, no?

Bill: That reference is perhaps too tragic.

But maybe this works: Buswan Shree Rashneesh.

"Bus Davidians" I like it! Of course most of the majority of the Bus Davidians are too young to get the joke, but it's on them so who cares?

Good stuff there Bill McDonald... very good stuff..

I may end up just writing in someone since voting for either of these choices feels much to much like throwing my vote away anywa...

Jefferson's groupies remind me more of the Heaven's Gate cult.

Jefferson Smith is the classic bully and the key move is to deflect from that.

I heard Max Brumm talk @ the Smith bully moves during an interview on KPOJ with Carl Wolfson last week. Something about phone harassment if I recall?? Nice....

Either way the citizens of Portland are screwed!

Maybe Max Brumm is the key to this. If Jefferson Smith was a bully to this great young person, it will show what I'm talking about. It will also confirm my analysis of Jeffy's shaky "personality."

I drove through the upscale Eastmoreland neighborhood a few days before the primary, and the rows of lawn signs for Hales, house after house after house, was breathtaking if not a bit weird.

How could I vote (if I could)for someone who is either a tax cheat or fraudulent voter? Write in anybody.

Bill McDonald, "However, I've been a little bit freaked out ever since the comment from Katherine [it's Kathleen] O'Brien yesterday about the "unwavering devotion" Jefferson's people have for him." Thanks for the mention. It's Kathleen. I've been a lawyer here in town for 29 years. First time I've ever heard I freaked anybody out. Good luck to you, Mr. McDonald.

These polls need an option to write someone in. I can't, in all good conscience, stomach voting for either of them.

I sort of favor, "Smithdronians" for the followers of Mr. Smith.

Kathleen,
I wasn't freaked out by you. It was the idea that Jefferson Smith has got followers with "unwavering devotion." I think you're right about that by the way.
Best wishes to you.

Mr. McDonald, I don't think Charlie's phone call/lunch advice was meant as fatherly.

Maybe I am somewhat insensitive, but we really shouldn't step in until it gets physical - like a forced haircut or a noogie..

Though turnout will be much hirer, and maybe a bit younger (Obama isn't going to get the same youth support this time around), I have a hard time believing Smith can make up 10 points considering there's no real substantive difference between the two.

Seems to me Hales and Smith probably split Brady's votes, with a slight nod going to Hales, as Brady was, oddly enough, the most conservative of the three. Given that, I think more conservative democratic voters will probably go with the older fellow.

Bill McD -- the tragedy of the Branch Davidians wasn't so much of what they did, as it was of what was done to them and how many US Agencies did it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sBzs3ZBihk

Nevertheless, "Bus Davidians" is VERY catchy way to describe the Smith followers.

Best!

Concordbridge,
It's not meant as a comment about the actual events of that day, as much as the whole cult-like mentality in general. The "charismatic" leader who wants power. The young people who think he's just neat.

By the way, one young person who's not on the bus is Max Brumm. Max is convinced that Jefferson Smith should never hold any kind of office in Portland ever. He has a long list of Jefferson Smith bullying incidents during the campaign that should be enough to expose Jefferson for what he really is. Max calls him a hypocrite.

This isn't about policy - Max actually agrees with the progressive stuff. It's more about a mask that Jefferson uses to hide his true bullying self.

Portland's going to realize where Jefferson Smith is coming from before this is over, and it's not pretty.

Chuck: The final vote spread between Hales and Smith was 4.5 not 10 points. That's a much easier chasm to span.

Leonard is a bully. Smith is a bully. Leonard supported Smith. Anybody surprised?

Mike

I remember the WACO tragedy Bill McD. I was in 6th grade and came back from gym class to my teacher playing the live feed on the classroom radio. Too this day, it's nothing I ever joke about. Didn't the OK bombing and Columbine shooting happen on the anniversaries of the initial tragedy?

Stick to comedy my friend, mixing tragedy with light heartedness isn't funny.

Tragedy and comedy are 2 sides of the same coin.
Oh and by the way, although the Branch Davidians are tied to Waco, they are a Protestant sect going back to 1955.
That being said, I'm sorry if this was not funny for you.
I believe comedy can express truth. Wars are tragic things and yet Bob Hope went to several wars and told jokes about the wars to the soldiers fighting them.
If we cross off everything that is tragic to someone, we won't have much left to talk about.
I'm guessing that you didn't like the message about Jefferson so you're trying to apply a head trip as a counter. If so, that's fair. But if not, I'm sorry.

6 grade must have been tough enough for you without me dragging back any memories.

I call them Smithophants.