Odds and ends
Here's a place where, apparently, one can wager on whether Sarah Palin will withdraw from the GOP vice presidential nomination between now and the election. At this hour, the gamblers participating in the pool set the chances of her withdrawal at 9.5 percent.
Elsewhere, some reflections on whether, and how, it could happen.
Of course, for Palin to go away, McCain would have to have a replacement lined up. Who would be willing to take the second spot on the ticket at this point?
Comments (27)
Does the name Joe Lieberman Sound like a possibility if she does resign. Switch hitter Joe, would sell his mother if he thought it would get him a big time slot in the administration, any administration.
Posted by phil | September 3, 2008 5:44 AM
Mike Huckabee comes to mind as someone he should have picked if he wanted a pro-lifer so badly and I'm sure he'd be all over it if offered. I'm not going to speculate too deeply who would replace her because it's not going to happen unless something really, really huge comes up about her that we don't know about yet. There is a very vocal and influential base within the Republican party that is fully willing to put their blinders on to Mrs. Palin's numerous faults because she is absolutely 100% anti-abortion and that's all they need to know. Many of them are drawn to their romanticized image of her as a gun toting, moose eating, child raising Christian crusader who "was tough enough to stand up to the corrupt Good 'ol Boys" that they are willing to ignore the fact that she is "uniquely and supremely unqualified" for the office she seeks.
They write off all of us educated progressive types as a bunch of elitist sexist snobs who are quick to denigrate and belittle her numerous non-traditional qualifications such as being a mother of five and Governor of a state that is close to Russia. (Also don't forget that she is "smart and a quick learner" and has experience as "Commander in Chief of the Alaska National Guard".)
Every time they open their mouths to explain her qualifications to be one heart beat away from the presidency they look stupid. The more the media talks about her 17 year old kid's pregnancy, the less time they will focus on her lack of qualifications and good judgment. It's like she's getting a free pass on the heavy duty discussion about her qualifications and ethics issues because they are so focused on the juicy dirty stuff. In the long haul the teen pregnancy doesn't matter very much or might turn her into a sympathetic character in the long run. Many of the Republican's are all buying into this and are going on and on about how all of this drama with the daughter, etc. just shows that "she's a real person".
My hope is that the undecided voters will perceive her as religious extremist with numerous skeletons in her closet who is unqualified to become Vice President of the United States of America.
Posted by Usual Kevin | September 3, 2008 5:58 AM
Is Tom Eagleton still available?
Posted by PMG | September 3, 2008 7:43 AM
A sane whisper among the ravings of the fatuous.
Posted by David E Gilmore | September 3, 2008 7:47 AM
She won't resign and McCain doesn't like to change his mind. The fact she's making the Left all Michael Moorish is just gravy for the Right. They love her, pregant teen daughter and all.
Posted by Mister Tee | September 3, 2008 7:55 AM
There's still stuff to come out or be covered up, and a large team of handlers up in AK working on that, so we'll see. Best case, she is nominated, campaigns and then crumbles, so that she has to be replaced closer to the election.
Posted by Allan L. | September 3, 2008 8:33 AM
Allen you are right, does October surprise sound familiar
Posted by phil | September 3, 2008 9:39 AM
RE: October Surprise
Yes, there will be more info that comes out, but be careful what you wish for. Perhaps there will be revelations about the Obama-Biden side of the campaign.
If the media swarm were as interested, just think what will turn up from Obama's Chicago days.
Posted by Mike | September 3, 2008 10:07 AM
Barring an earth-shattering revelation of some kind, Palin is going to remain on the ticket. I would add that she has a very good chance of becoming the vice president!
Posted by none | September 3, 2008 10:11 AM
I'm worried more about this kind of "October Surprise":
http://tinyurl.com/6jpbxy
Posted by PMG | September 3, 2008 10:33 AM
Man, the unhinged left is in full-force over Palin. Amazing the hypocrisy found amongst the Dems. I guess an independent, hard-working mother is to be celebrated when she's a leftist, but taboo when she's a conservative.
Obama gets his political career started by an admitted terrorist and his million dollar house from a convicted felon, but VP nominee Palin is the one being ostracized.
Wow. Just wow.
Posted by Chris McMullen | September 3, 2008 10:51 AM
***Amazing the hypocrisy found amongst the Dems. I guess an independent, hard-working mother is to be celebrated when she's a leftist, but taboo when she's a conservative.***
The issue would be the same if a Democratic soccer mom were being nominated as Vice President whose greatest political accomplishment was to once get 114,697.
She effectively has the same political base and experience as the mayor of Washington DC, including the absence of any meaningful normal tax base and a huge per-capita Federal subsidy. You can add-in that her fiscal experience as Alaska governor makes her better suited to preside over OPEC-member Qatar than anything resembling an urbanized, industrial USA.
Posted by PdxMark | September 3, 2008 11:34 AM
oops... 114,697 VOTES.
Posted by PdxMark | September 3, 2008 11:35 AM
So we're supposed to believe that the media (and all of us?) should leave the children alone -- leave them out of it, right?
So why are the Palins and the McCains parading around their children (and their unwed fathers of the yet to be born children) -- with front and center photo ops, and public public public displays plus statements about who is going to Iraq etc.
What happened to "leave them out of it?" They're trying to get every inch of mileage out of the kids, and the Republicans know it sells so they're going to milk it for all it's worth. Forget about ignoring, they're HIGHLIGHTING the kids. So why are they "offended" when others have things to say (or ask) about the kids?
Posted by db | September 3, 2008 11:58 AM
Kevin,
You can't bitch about the MSM putting all their attention on the "scandals" and her personal life and ignoring the substance when a large segment of the Democrat support is in fact hammering on the same scandals. Like you, I'd welcome an examination of her credentials - let her go through the same scrutiny on POLICY and JUDGMENT issues that McCain, Obama, and Biden have been through, then make up your mind whether she is fit or unfit.
If you think those in the middle will write her off because of these personal attacks, credible or not, you discount the fact that Americans sometimes have this knack for supporting the little guy or the underdog. Hell, that is at least part of the appeal of Obama (versus the big bad Clinton machine).
Posted by Mike (the other one) | September 3, 2008 11:59 AM
Here si the new scenario:
Reporter: WHat is the status of the Troopergate investigation in Alaske, why won't Gov Pallin testify as reuired by law?
McCain Campaign: How dare you attack the governor's teenage daughter.
Reporter: Please explain the fact that the Governor repeatedly supported earmarks which John McCain opposed and has made a cnetral issue of his campaign?
McCain Camppaign: Will you stop these sexist attacks on the governor. And how dare you attack her teenage daughter.
Reporter: Please explain how the governor's experience in a state where they have no industrial economy, no sales, income or property taxes and fund everything through Oil revenue is qualified to become president?
McCain Campaign: Again with the sexist attacks, we will not stand here and let you belittle women in America!
and so on and so on.
Posted by Eric k | September 3, 2008 12:44 PM
I agree that there is potential for a sympathy backlash reaction if the MSM continues to pick on her for poor decision making by her daughter. I have my own personal opinion about the situation, but that doesn't mean it's relevant to whether she is fit to be V.P. Obama came out very early and said the exact same thing do I don't see how the Democrats are at fault for this.
Posted by Usual Kevin | September 3, 2008 12:57 PM
Forget about her daughter. Let's talk about poor decisionmaking by her!
Posted by Jack Bog | September 3, 2008 1:29 PM
The GOP convention last night was high comedy. First they trotted out Fred Thompson, who so electrified the nation during the primary campaign that he garnered -- what was it? 2 or 3 percent of the vote? And his main contribution last night was to lambaste the Dems for fiscal irresponsibility. It doesn't get any funnier than that -- coming from the party that piled up twice as much debt during the Reagan/Bush/Bush years than under every other president combined. They made earmarks into a high art during the first 6 years of Bush II, when they were in control of Congress. Then when the Dems took control in 2006, the GOP professed to be shocked -- shocked! -- that earmark spending had gotten out of control. You gotta love it.
Then they brought out Lieberman, who extolled McCain primarily for his independence, which Joe illustrated by pointing to two main topics: campaign finance reform and immigration -- and on both issues the GOP base despises McCain for his positions!
If you saw all this in a Hollywood movie, you would dismiss it as wholly unbelievable. The GOP seems to live in an alternate universe.
Posted by Charlie | September 3, 2008 2:01 PM
I still can't believe that hockey boy/prospective papa Levi is flying to the convention. Bad judgment aside, didn't the school year just begin? What are his parents thinking?
Then again, judging by how the Palins pulled Track and Bristol out of school for months at a time, perhaps Alaskans are a bit more laisse faire in their devotion to secondary education.
Posted by NW Portlander | September 3, 2008 4:03 PM
I think Chris Matthews on MSNBC hit the right note for the GOP strategy - McCain and Palin are the "new GOP" made up of mavericks and reformers ... they are just as "outside" and against the Bush policies as Obama and the Democrats. "We're like you, tired of this administration and politics as usual." The danger to the Left is that if Obama doesn't tamp down on the non-issue criticisms by his surrogates, he begins to sound like the party machine he just defeated and suddenly the new brand-McCain sounds appealing.
It'll be a hell of a success, with no small contribution from the other side, * IF * they can pull that off in this election.
Posted by Mike (the other one) | September 3, 2008 4:22 PM
So, the Republicans at the national level have become just like the Oregon Republicans - hostage to a small group that is totally wedded to core, extreme fundamentalist social beliefs, and in Oregon, unable to find/nominate any moderate candidates who could win a state-wide office. If they want to play that game at the national level, fine with me.
Posted by umpire | September 3, 2008 5:51 PM
Just listened to Romney's very angry, scary speech. This is a job application. He and Huckabee are no dummies. They know there could be an opening soon...
Posted by DE | September 3, 2008 6:25 PM
Watching her speak right now, she's not leaving.
Posted by Canucken | September 3, 2008 8:05 PM
Hey DE, let me clue you in ... even a moderate Republican couldn't win around here ("here" = west of the Cascades). Hell, they don't even bother nominating any candidates in my district.
Posted by Mike (the first one) | September 3, 2008 8:50 PM
Mike,
Negative attack ads work, remember? 4 years ago? 8 years ago? I'm sure McCain remembers.
Posted by MJ | September 3, 2008 9:31 PM
Can we also place a bet on the likelihood that an Orange Alert will be announced on November 1?
Posted by MJ | September 3, 2008 9:34 PM