For some reason, Portlanders will glady spend this much money on a handful of folks, yet they'll totally freak out about the I-5 bridge which will benefit hundreds of thousands of locals as well as the regional (shipping) economy.

"Portlanders will glady spend this much money"

No they won't. If Portlanders were being charged the actual cost of light rail, tram, street car and buses, they would revolt. It's all funny money, invisible federal and state dollars.

The only times Portlanders have been asked to support these projects, they've answered with a resounding "no." That's why it all has to be done on the hush-hush.

It's all funny money, invisible federal and state dollars.

The sad part is, that's not true. There's lots of local money in the pot, especially for operations but even for aspects of construction.

"The sad part is, that's not true. There's lots of local money in the pot . . ."

Why is that sad, given the significant local benefit light rail provides? This Portland resident is glad light rail is being expanded, and I don't object to helping to pay for it.

Anybody remember what the original estimate was?

For perspective, the bridge might ammortize itself somewhat by hosting additional line expansions in the future, for example an extension of the Milwaukee line to Oregon City. Bridges are long term assets and generally good investments for public infrastructure.

That said. Wow. $1.4 billion. Compare that to Interstate that ran similar mileage but for $250 million. To me, this seems an obscene amount of money for this line. I somehow doubt that it will pass FTA scrutiny at that cost.

There are other options of course. One could route MAX over the Hawthorne and cut the spendy bride from the budget. There would be some work required, but its hardly impossible and nowheree near as expensive as the new bridge.

Why not do it? Here, let me point to "SoWhat". Using a new bridge allows TriMet to route the MAX line via the South Waterfront district. So the question is, is serving the South Waterfront area worth the extra $1 billion for a new Willamette bridge?

Anyone?

"Liar's" ... ?? The notion that projected construction costs increase, without any intentional misprepresentation going on, should surprise no one. That's true in public and private sector side.

It's sad because Portland can't even cover transportation basics like fixing potholes, paving city streets, and building sidewalks. We're not talking about building new roads, just barely maintaining the ones we have.

Beyond transportation basics, our K-8 schools alone need $1.5 billion in deferred maintenance like fixing leaky roofs. Never mind fixing up high schools, or building new schools to reduce overcrowding. (Though Jon R. may point out that the city has no responsibility to fix the schools).

We also owe police and firefighters hundreds of millions more than we can afford pay in retirement benefits.

Despite these gaping lapses in governance, we have high property taxes, fees for everything, and even then the city spends hundreds of millions more than it takes in annually. City officials smugly call borrowing obscene amounts of money "creative financing" as though they are proud of digging us into a big hole of debt.

Light rail is great. It's actually a transportation solution, not a development tool like streetcars. But we really don't have even matching money to pay for it right now.

On December 30th it was $1 billion so we have a 40% increase from then.
http://www.oregonlive.com/editorials/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/editorial/119889511559810.xml&coll=7
Sunday, December 30, 2007
*"First a tram, then a bridge"

*"Development of the South Waterfront may take longer than hoped, but the aerial tram is already a big success"

*"our city has been hard at work planning a light-rail-and-pedestrian bridge over the Willamette, an iconic span that would cost northwards of $100 million.
It would be part of a $1 billion-plus light-rail alignment to Milwaukie"

*"With state lottery-backed bonds furnishing $250 million, the hope is that Oregon's transportation clout in Congress can secure yet another huge pot of federal funds."

Yeah Richard, and you don't mind disallowing any public vote on it either.
I'd like to see Portland vote to pay for it. I doubt they would and the region would never vote for it.

"Significant benefit"?
Like 10,000 biotech jobs from the Tram?

I support light rail to Milwaukie. I think we ought to start working on it the day after the new Sellwood Bridge opens.

The notion that projected construction costs increase, without any intentional misprepresentation going on, should surprise no one.

No, actually, it's more than that. They deliberately lie to understate costs.

"Why is that sad, given the significant local benefit light rail provides?"

Are you kidding me? MAX hasn't reduced freeway congestion nor air pollution one iota since it has gone in. TriMet leaders have even admitted to this. Some benefit.

Given the astronomical cost associated with it and the fact it moves only a tiny percentage of commuters, Milwaulkie light rail is very, very sad.

"They deliberately lie to understate costs"

Absolutely and they did so with every single public improvement and infrastructure for SoWa. Just like the Tram only worse.
And they inflated the revenue projections as well.
All so PDC staff could deem the plan "feasible" and "recommend approval".
And here we go on another $1.4 Billion boondoggle when there's been NO report on the real SoWa costs.
The records show that these officials have been so emboldened from years of facing no consequences for their Goldschmidt stunts and schemes they feel they can pull anything.
The scheming really took off when Goldschmidt finagled (with his friends at Bechtel and on Port & PDC commissions) the no bid contract to Bechtel for Airport MAX and the wild scheme for Cascade Station.
Metro and TriMet, eager to see more light rail built after voters turned them down were willing and irresponsible particiants.
Having suceeded beyond expectations Goldschmidt turned next to spearhead the Tram and SoWa further enriching he and his friends. All on the backs of taxpayers and using those enamored with our planners and rail transit.
Now the wild spending is is a free for all frenzy blind to everything but fantasies about more rail and the subsidized development it brings.

They deliberately lie to understate costs??

I know that NYT v. Sullivan gives lots of 1st amendment protection, but, well, it would be interesting to see evidence that "they" deliberately lied.

Hay can we bring this idea to Portland? Thats got to be worth 10 to 15 million more, right?

Chris McMullen Are you kidding me? MAX hasn't reduced freeway congestion nor air pollution one iota since it has gone in. TriMet leaders have even admitted to this. Some benefit.
JK: That is true, but I’m surprised that Trimet admits it - can you supply a reference or details?

Richard Why is that sad, given the significant local benefit light rail provides? This Portland resident is glad light rail is being expanded, and I don't object to helping to pay for it.
JK: Helping - when you ride transit, other people are paying 80% of your cost.

Thanks
JK

it would be interesting to see evidence that "they" deliberately lied.

There have been scientific studies done of this. Transportation infrastructure costs are always, always, always deliberately understated by the bureaucrats who are pushing them. Stop arguing with me and use your Google.

"when you ride transit, other people are paying 80% of your cost"

Good. That's as it should be, as mass transit provides a broad-based societal benefit, to mass-transit users and non-users alike.

By the way, I'm also willing to help pay for a new Sellwood bridge, even though I haven't driven over the old one for years and may never use the new one. I'm also willing to pay for public schools, even though my children are out of high school. I know this way of thinking is anathema to the Karlock's and McMullens of the world. I'm just glad that Karlocks and McMullens are not yet in the majority in this town.

It's nice to see you so sanguine with chucking tax dollars down a rat hole, Richard. However, it must be difficult coping with reality sans fiscal responsibility.

BTW, we voted down funding light rail twice already. Your proclamation that this town's majority doesn't feel the same way I do is incorrect.

It would be truly frightening if no one in this town questioned spending $215,384,615 per mile on Milwaukie MAX.

And Jim, I misspoke. It was a Metro Councilor (I can't find out who, exactly), not a Tri-Met head who admitted MAX is more of a development tool than a transportation device.

Richard, what are your thoughts about how the basics aren't getting done, but the Max line is? Not trying to argue - genuinely interested in your thoughts on this.

Richard "when you ride transit, other people are paying 80% of your cost"

Good. That's as it should be, as mass transit provides a broad-based societal benefit, to mass-transit users and non-users alike.
JK: Care to name, even ONE, “broad-based societal benefit”, of light rail?

Mass transit costs 3 time what driving costs.
Mass transit DOES NOT use less energy than small efficient cars.
Light rail kills people at over twice the rate of cars.
Mass transit DOES NOT REDUCE congestion, except, perhaps in Portland’s central core, which is mostly irrelevant to the rest of the region.
See: DebunkingPortland.com/Transit/Cost-Cars-Transit(2005).htm

Light rail costs too much and does too little.

However, light rail is very good at attracting massive campaign donations from those who make money off of its construction.

Thanks
JK

Chris, I thought that the Max was a little better at actually moving people than the streetcar, so I gave it the benefit of the doubt. I think we get to the same conclusion anyway.

Hey Richard: I'm one of those business owners that pay the other 80% of your TriMet costs every year. My small business usually pays between $750-800.00 every year so people like you can pay a pittance at the fare box. (That is if anyone is even paying at all.)
And those "benefits" I get are so small as to be laughable. Of the five bus lines that pass in front on my office every day - I'm lucky to have one client use the bus to come to my office in an entire MONTH. Some benefit.
One last thing, anyone that says they are happpy to pay taxes is either a politician or not telling the truth.

"what are your thoughts about how the basics aren't getting done, but the Max line is?"

Jim, I think an effective mass transit system is essential to a large city. I think it's one of the basics--right after public safety, health and education. I think we've under-invested in mass transit for years. I think we should have a rail and bus system so efficient and extensive that most people in Portland would find it more attractive (and not just for altruistic reasons) to use mass transit rather than drive.

I don't agree with all of COP's financial priorities, but spending a relatively small amount of local money in order to get a large amount of state and federal money for MAX seems like a good investment to me.

I must admit public transit is an excellent idea whose time has come. Just one problem. The government, which is famous for screwing things up is the only entity allowed to run it in most American cities. Now if we opened the market up to all forms of competitive transit we might see some real progress.

We might start by contracting out what we already have. Stockholm, Helsinki, Copenhagen and London, just to name a few cities, all have contracted out their transit systems and seen significant savings of any where's from 25% to 50%, or so I understand. At the same time some of the systems have actually increased rideship thank to improvements made by the private companies running them.

BTw I have a strong belief in public transit because I think we can actually solve some of our social problems by improving our present system. A number of these probelms have been spelled out by the government in one of its many publications put out by the National Academies. I seem to recall the TCRP 49 being the specific publication, but will have to look it up.

Unfortunately as Jim suggest light rail is a welfare project designed to circulate money from the tax payers to contractors and back to the politicians who then spend more tax dollars on more projects that produce more contributions for politicians and around it goes. Wheels within wheels.

MHW

WOW!

$1.4 Billion with a "B"...

I'd bet you could pave every sand and gravel street in Portland for $1.4 billion, and still have money left over for new sidewalks.

About that new transportation tax...

Richard: I think it's one of the basics--right after public safety, health and education. I think we've under-invested in mass transit for years.
JK: That is because mass transit was superceded by something better, faster, more convenient and cheaper: the private car. That battle occurred almost a century ago and lasted about 20 years (~1910-1930). Cars won, transit lost - quit trying to re-run the past, hoping for a different outcome.

Richard: I think we should have a rail and bus system so efficient and extensive that most people in Portland would find it more attractive (and not just for altruistic reasons) to use mass transit rather than drive.
JK: That is simple not acheivable at any reasonable cost. To be more attractive than driving it would have to be ALL of these:
1. Faster
2. Cheaper.
3. Available within 50 feet of most front doors.
4. Be instantly available.
5. Be free of criminals, panhandlers and drug dealers.
The reality is:
1. Transit is slower than driving, frequently by hours.
2. Transit’s actual cost is 3 or more times that of driving.
3. Transit cannot stop within a few feet of every front door - Buses would run empty on most of the side streets. And they would be slow. See #1.
4. Buses would have to run every minute or so. Too expensive.
5. We can’t even keep our little MAX system safe.

Richard: I don't agree with all of COP's financial priorities, but spending a relatively small amount of local money in order to get a large amount of state and federal money for MAX seems like a good investment to me.
JK: Not really. We are spending local money to get a system that will be a financial burden on the whole region for many decades.

Thanks
JK

"it would be interesting to see evidence that "they" deliberately lied."

Yes there has been regular does of evidence.
Matt Brown deliberately withheld the rising Tram costs.
The PDC was found to be using staff estimates in accounting for costs.
Internal influence peddling led to some firings.

If one looks at the 1999 SoWa plan budget the intentional low-balling and inflating is obvious.

What we need is a FBI investigation like is happening at the Port of Seattle.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/346394_port08.html
"Feds open criminal inquiry into port
Audit alleging waste, fraud catches U.S. attorney's eye"

But the PDC must be fully audited.

.
LIARS in the headline instantly suggested some hatetalk radio bigot wrote a budget, and here would show some greater things he thinks of lesser Portland.

A glance a second at the link, showed of course that LIARS was no part of this at all.

But wait, what comments through yon thread do break? Why, here is everything that LIARS says, signed by surrogates and sympathetic parrots, and his lips don't have to move a muscle.

Seriously, Jack, the word-for-word verbatim nay-say here, from "it's all funny money" on down lower, is exactly what came out the radio. As if LIARS audience is tape recorders.

Businesses on light rail lines can plan on having customers, at least, when gasoline tops five bucks and keeps climbing. Businesses beyond the customer conveyance network could end up as boarded storefronts.

---
It's uncertain what a billion here or there does to "your share"-o-meter in the Long Term Debt of the City of Portland, however let's say it goes redline at ten thousand ($10,000). That debt's confined to Oregon's urbanites alone. Whereas every woman, child, and man from Portland, Maine, to PDX, is thirty thousand ($30,000) in the red, on the federal share-o-meter of nine trillion ($9,000,000,000,000) and climbing -- so far worsening a trillion every Bushyear. That's with a 'T.' As Oregon can claim 1 percent of federal action, our share just of last month's hundred billion bump-up in Iraq, would buy the bridge, the rails and railcars, and a year's free ridership for everyone.

Tell you what, Portlanders, put the hatetalk radio on burning Bush and bringing every troop home, make the Pentagon a triangle -- or best of all, a distant point receding into history, and I promise every Oregonian can cover your share on the meter and you can keep the change, from only half of everyone's Peace Dividend. And a Chimpcam on the prison cells of all the neo-cons, and LIARS, could entertain at least the next three generations -- kinda give new meaning to 'American Idolatry.'

Tens,
That was classic.
Only Lars and Bush lie? Not any of our local electeds and officials.
Is that about it?

Amazing lie detecting machine you operate. It picks up all things as lies from those you hate and none from the local cabal. Perfect.

I'd say you better try and get a grip. Whatever you perceive as coming from Lars and talk radio is actually going to Lars/radio. Bouncing back out material from 1000s and sounding boards such as this.
What you don't understand you believe to be naysaying hate. That's real convenient for the local lying pigs wasting our money.

Tenskwat is Nineskwats short of a bushel of brainsquawkatania, but only cause his bds affliction skewers his burned out brain flicking it into psycho mode whenever he sees the word liars, much like Pavlov's dog dripping with drool, only to never realize that bds is not involved here at all, only leaving tenskwat chasing his tail looking for the lost nineskwats scampering away into the desert.

Richard, there is some discussion occurring in this city about the "stretching of the truth" in regard to the tram. I wouldn't be surprised that legal action occurs in the near future. The tram advisory committee with OHSU, PDOT, City Council, and other representatives knew about the budget shortfalls. Matt Brown (PDOT) and Commissioner Jim who served on the committee knew of the shortfalls and did not properly inform the city. Others are involved too. And all of this is in emails and city documents. There were deliberate misrepresentations of the budget shortfalls.

Also include Commissioner Sam in the above misrepresentations, from the time he was Vera's chief of staff and commissioner in charge of the tram.

The Milwaukie Light Rail was initially presented to the public as a $500M project about 3 years ago.

Quote: "...but spending a relatively small amount of local money in order to get a large amount of state and federal money for MAX seems like a good investment to me."

Obviously some of our bloggers don't think that anyone in Portland and Oregon pay any State or Federal taxes...

Tenskwatawa Businesses on light rail lines can plan on having customers, at least, when gasoline tops five bucks and keeps climbing. Businesses beyond the customer conveyance network could end up as boarded storefronts.
JK: Guess no one told you gasolene topped five bucks long ago in Europe and they still drive. 80% of their passenger-miles are by AUTO. In the last 20 years, bus & coach, tram & metro and rail have all lost market share by around 20% EACH. Of the major modes, only aircraft and automobiles have gained market share in the last 20 years.
see: DebunkingPortland.com/Transit/EuroTranistShareLoss.htm

If you look at the components of the cost of driving, you will see that gasolene is not the biggest cost. When gas doubles, the total cost of driving only goes by 20-35%. Get the data and do the math.
You can start at: DebunkingPortland.com/Transit/AAA_method.htm

(Sorry to puncture you dream of us going back to a 1890 lifestyle.)

Thanks
JK

there is some discussion occurring in this city about the "stretching of the truth" in regard to the tram. I wouldn't be surprised that legal action occurs in the near future.

Will. Never. Happen.

JK: Guess no one told you gasolene topped five bucks long ago in Europe and they still drive. 80% of their passenger-miles are by AUTO. In the last 20 years, bus & coach, tram & metro and rail have all lost market share by around 20% EACH. Of the major modes, only aircraft and automobiles have gained market share in the last 20 years.

Cabbie: Very true, but you left out the most important fact. Diesels account for 50 percent and growing of personal automobiles in Europe. Very high taxes on fuel, resulting in that 5 dollar per gallon plus figure, were the driving force behind this. Now that European-style clean-burning ULSD fuel is mandated by law in America, we are going to see more and more highly-fuel efficient Diesel cars that require it. This, of course, will make the various stats people use currently to compute the cost of driving outdated in short order.

Also, don't forget the leaps and bounds being made with Algae biodiesel, such as the large-scale commercial refineries being built in Puget Sound and elsewhere, as well as current research on clean Fischer-Tropsch fuel from coal, which we have literally centuries worth of left in the ground. Americans, and Europeans, for that matter, will be happily motoring along for decades. One day, the works of poorly informed hacks like Y2Kunstler and his fellow Peak Oil chicken littles will make for high comedy.

Cabbie: Very true, but you left out the most important fact.
JK: I seem to always do that about diesel. As to calculating the cost of driving, fuel is only 1/5 - 1/3 of the total cost, so the overall cost of driving is not terribly dependent on the cost of fuel.

Cabbie:... current research on clean Fischer-Tropsch fuel from coal, which we have literally centuries worth of left in the ground.
JK: What do you do about the CO or CO2 leftover from extracting the H2? The warmers will have a fit.

Cabbie: Americans, and Europeans, for that matter, will be happily motoring along for decades.
JK: I’m thinking that the plug in hybrid will have a big effect in just a few years as a start of a gradual transition to full electric cars powered by nuclear plants. I speculate that year by year the electric range will increase to the point that fossil fuel is only needed for occasional trips to the beach or to mountains. (The fossil fuel motor will be around for decades to come, just get used less and less as the electric range increases.)

Cabbie: One day, the works of poorly informed hacks like Y2Kunstler and his fellow Peak Oil chicken littles will make for high comedy.
JK: Agreed, same for the warmers. But hacks like Y2Kunstler appear to be making a good living scaring little children, so their types will probably always be around.

Thanks
JK

"it would be interesting to see evidence that "they" deliberately lied."

OK

JK, I don't see any Nuclear plants being built in America soon, but that could change. We are a remarkably adaptable culture, and, to a lesser extent, species, after all.

The renewed interest in F-T synthesis is just getting rolling. A quick Google search turned up a ton of current-day papers on emission reductions, more than I have time to sift through. It looks like a lot of money is interested in the problem, that much is sure. Personally, I think a combination of that and biodiesel from algae and/or F-T processed waste will power large diesel trucks for the foreseeable future, even if small hybrids become affordable and popular. It takes a lot of energy to move large objects long distance.

All this may be moot if the Global Cooling crowd is correct, and the various solar cycles of that huge magical disc in the sky have an enormous overall impact on the Earth's climate. According to them, buy 30 years worth of long underwear and parkas.

The $500 million estimate for Milwaukie MAX was used to stop any talk of a BRT system in the HWY 99 corridor. If a train was about the same price as a BRT system (loaded on with expensive stations and dedicated new lanes to boost its estimated costs) why not get the rail line? Right?

HOT lanes that busses and toll paying cars could share would move WAY more people and have a real impact on congestion and allow transit a lot more flexibility (busses can leave the "tracks") for a lot less money than either BRT or MAX but no one seems to be talking about it.

But John, you KNOW that the trainspotters run the transit agenda here in Portland.
So, just forget about HOT lanes (which I happen to like).

Public construction projects overwhelmingly suffer from what is called “optimism bias.” The summary of perhaps the best academic study of this phenomenon states in part “statistical significance that the cost estimates used to decide whether such projects should be built are highly and systematically misleading. Underestimation cannot be explained by error and is best explained by strategic misrepresentation, that is, lying.”

Source: Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects, Error or Lie, in the APA Journal in 2002. by Professor Bent Flyvbjerg of Denmark, et. al.

For $1.4 billion you could buy a brand new Jetta TDI for 55,000 Portlanders.

Just think of the multiplier wealth effect:

Canola farmers in Easter Oregon plant 100,000 new acres of rapeseed...

Politically connected biodiesel refiners can barely keep up with demand.

VW would toss in 55,000 R/T airline vouchers to tour the factory in Germany.

Which helps to sustain the last "International Flight" out of PDX.

Which supports the Port of Portland's expansion plan, providing more union construction job (and union endorsements).

And all because we have 55,000 shiny new biodiesel air fresheners tooling around Portland. You think they won't remember their sugar daddy when it's time to run for reelection {Shudder}...The Fireman just had a Bio-orgasm.

Trains are so old fashioned.

You know, kidding aside, one honestly has to wonder which option would burn more fuel annually.

The 55,000 Jettas burning up some type of diesel or other at 45+ miles per gallon, or those huge shiny trains running night and day, powered by coal belching power plants far, far away from the rarefied air of Portland ?