Halftime
On the national scene, where will be two years from now? For the life of me, I couldn't predict. The Chimp will be finished, and although his numbers won't be as deep in the tank as they are now, they'll be low. Which means that his party will need a new look, as they acknowledge that Dumb and Mean has played itself out. And who would that new face be? Giuliani? Jeb? Given the troubles at the White House, they wouldn't dare bring out a face without instant recognition, would they?
On the other side of the aisle, it's looking bleak. Hillary? Dean? Neither could be elected POTUS, and Obama wouldn't help. My man Johnny Edwards will be in the mix, I'm sure, and I'd love to see the country behind him, but he couldn't get it done last time. And if Kerry or Gore dare act like candidates, they ought to be floated out to sea on a barge with Fat Teddy and Al Sharpton, and sunk.
One thing seems certain. Rove will orchestrate or permit one or more major international crises so that the GOP can play the "war on terr" card. (He'll work from jail if necessary.) Which means that many people will live in pain and fear while the big power forces use them as bait. That's a real tragedy, but I can't see '08 going down any other way.
Comments (33)
I agree with most of your assessment, but as a supporter of Edwards in the primaries in 04, I came away unimpressed during the general. I think his time is already past.
I think Kerry would be a disaster, but I am intrigued by the return of Gore. Jack, if Gore was the only candidate who could stop Hillary, would you change your tune about his candidacy?
Posted by TimC | May 17, 2006 9:09 PM
No. They're both losers.
Posted by Jack Bog | May 17, 2006 9:29 PM
Have you read Frank Luntz's focus group assessments of the D candidates?
Posted by ellie | May 17, 2006 9:33 PM
John McCain vs. Mark Warner.
Posted by Hinckley | May 17, 2006 10:05 PM
Joe Biden will secure the nomination
Posted by eric | May 17, 2006 10:20 PM
Gore, as a person AND as a politician, has impressed me since 2000. He got a raw deal from the media during the campaign, and also suffered from some self-inflicted wounds. I don't know if he can pull of another nomination, but I'd probably vote for him. Not so for Kerry--he lost a race he should have won. I think the media is thirsty for a Hillary-McCain race in 08, so I worry that she'll coast to the nomination without anyone bothering to ask some basic questions--like "what do you believe?" and stuff like that.
Posted by Dave J. | May 17, 2006 10:24 PM
Schweitzer!
Let's start the groundswell here.
Posted by Libertas | May 17, 2006 10:36 PM
It's McCain for the GOP, by a longshot IMO. He's got the name recognition, enough perceived distance from Dumb'n'Mean, and tons of moderates still think he's... well, moderate. Take a look at what he's been doing lately. It's the beginning of a series of negotiations with the christian right.
I still have some hope for JohnJohn Edwards. He's got tricks in him I don't think we got to see last time in the shadow of Herman Munster.
Posted by Sebastian | May 17, 2006 10:37 PM
Feingold in '08... I think a Gore/Feingold ticket is do-able too.
Posted by TK | May 17, 2006 10:56 PM
McCain won't make it past the first primary. The GOP base hates him. Expect George Allen to emerge as the front runner after his Senate re-election this November. He will run with Condi Rice as his VP.
On the democrat side, Hillary-Richardson will be the ticket, unless the whole amnesty for illegals thing blows over, in which case it will be Hillary-Obama. Gotta have the minority du jour on the ticket.
Posted by Gullyborg | May 17, 2006 11:29 PM
If Obama is on any ticket (which I don't think he will), he'd get out the Dem's base more than Hillary would. If anyone thinks McCain will be the GOP's dude, do the following:
Go to Google.com and type in the following, "McCain 2000 South Carolina black baby". That's why he won't win.
No way Condi does anything beyond '08. She will go back to Stanford and not be liked before she left in '02. I know some Stanford folk who just couldn't stand her and they are the most calm and rational folks I know.
Posted by Geoff | May 17, 2006 11:52 PM
My fello Dems... Please, PLEASE say no to Hillary. We don't need GOP-lite. We don't need consultant-suppressed version that doesn't speak truth to power, even when the elephant is in the room. God forbid she choose another milktoast Dem like Lieberman for a running mate. Choose Dean, Gore, Feingold, Clark, Warner, whatever, fine. Can you hear Rove salivating? Hillary is revered just slightly more than Clarence Darrow and Charles Darwin in the South.
Posted by TK | May 17, 2006 11:55 PM
Schweitzer! Let's start the groundswell here.
Groundswell has been underway for over a year.
Posted by Kari Chisholm | May 18, 2006 12:53 AM
since the govenator can't do it, what about Bruce Willis?
maybe, just maybe, they can modify the constitution to make it a shared office and Brangelina could do double duty with their 19 adopted kids (watch out, they want to adopt your child next.)
bud clark anyone?
Posted by dieselboi | May 18, 2006 6:43 AM
Maybe it's just me, but I am counting more and more liberal smart friends who are packing it in, picking up their young families and moving overseas to live elsewhere, giving up their citizenship even in some cases, because they don't feel this country is a place to teach their family the values they remember growing up with. The latest couple I know, he was the mayor of a city for last decade or so and decided this country isn't worth paying taxes to.
I still love my country; I willingly and happily pay taxes here; but it's getting harder to justify this love daily.
Whoever decides to run for President or any other office would behoove themselves by first acknowledging that this country has run off many a-track; I, for one American, don't recognize the place where I grew up. The greed, the religious extremism, the fashionista, the warring; I look around Portland on a daily basis and think "where the hell do I live?" and lately that thought has been seconded by "...and why do I live here?"
Posted by Liz | May 18, 2006 6:56 AM
I am counting more and more liberal smart friends who are packing it in
Great. That makes more opportunities for those who are willing to give up everything to come here.
Posted by Garage Wine | May 18, 2006 8:15 AM
Hillary vs. McCain. What McCain will lose in R support he will gain in D crossover.
Posted by geno | May 18, 2006 9:01 AM
When was the last time either party put "the minority du jour" on the ticket? Are you counting Ferraro? Okay, so that's one. Kennedy? Two. Oh, Lieberman, you say?
Please. Unless Lloyd Bentsen was secretly half Chicano? I supposed you could say Dick Cheney is emotionally handicapped?
Posted by Libertas | May 18, 2006 9:21 AM
You want to know why everyone posits that Hillary is the Dem candidate to beat? Name recognition. Yikes.
Hillary is the candidate for the lazy, casual voter. Any Dem who bothers to read or pay attention to federal politics knows she has triangulated and played it safe to gain favor with Republicans. Amercia is so sick of the GOP, she doesn't even need their blessing anymore. The country will vote in a dyed in blue Dem without their help, but she doesn't see it.
Posted by TK | May 18, 2006 10:03 AM
All these comments and no one says anything about Kitzhaber. The Archimedes project, which he's billing as a state-by-state way to get national health care reform, provides a perfect launching pad for a presidential bid. Sure he's a long shot, but given the dissatisfaction with current choices (Hilary? Please.), it's not an impossibility and wouldn't be the first time a small state governor catches fire. Kitz has a folksy charm that would play well to middle America, and he's a middle-of-the-road Democrat.
Keep your eyes on his travel schedule -- I won't be surprised to see some "health care reform" speeches in Iowa and New Hampshire. If nothing else, strategically Kitz may use a bid to get publicity for the Archimedes movement.
Posted by Miles | May 18, 2006 10:31 AM
Well, on the one hand, with Hillary, you get Bill. Then again, on the other hand, with Hillary, you get Bill.
What the heck, maybe they deserve another chance to get it right on health care, gays in the military, global warming, etc.
On triangulation: we take it for granted that the R's lie to broaden their appeal and get elected. Why should we accept it from them, and not from the D's?
Posted by Allan L. | May 18, 2006 4:08 PM
Allan,
Most of us who object to it from Hillary hardly accept it from Republicans.
You know we are considered the lonny left and so on:-)
Posted by Eric | May 18, 2006 4:37 PM
If the Clinton's idea of getting it 'right' on Healthcare includes socialized medicine ala Canada, then they're irrefutably wrong.
I love this quote I saw on the NW republican blog:
"There are three key components to health care: Affordability, Ease of Access, and Quality of Care. As a consumer, you can only have two."
Posted by Chris McMullen | May 18, 2006 4:59 PM
Eric,
But we've accepted it -- these liars are running our government! I'm desperate to the point of being willing to take different liars. Chris,
"Irrefutably wrong"? I don't think so. Cheaper, with better outcomes up there. All you need is a neighboring country to the south with a crazy system like ours and, suddenly, you've got a threefer.
Posted by Allan L. | May 18, 2006 5:19 PM
Guilliani for the Republicans. Campaign theme:
" He stood tall on 9/11" and before that he cleaned up crime in New York, or so they say.
Anyhow that be were my money goes.
Didn't say I approve of him though.
M.
Posted by Michael | May 18, 2006 5:58 PM
Yep, I'll also put money on Giuliani.
And I wouildn't be so quick to dismiss Gore, either. He's unthawed a lot, learned from his mistakes, and gotten out from the shadow of Clinton. What, you don't believe in second chances, Jack?
Posted by Betsy | May 18, 2006 8:01 PM
The simple fact that Hillary supposedly hates Gore makes me love him that much more...
Posted by TK | May 18, 2006 8:31 PM
Ah, the old "Canada's Health Care...long waits..." chesnut. The thing is, there are many ways to implement universal health care, and every country presents a different set of factors and complexities. The U.S. would have to figure out a way to deal with the countless strata of middlemen and their countless layers of profit built into health care costs.
As taxpayers and voters, if we really WANT universal health care, it can be done. If we want it without having to pay more in taxes, it can be done (hint: Once we have a prez who understands that terrorists can't be fought with expensive Defense pork projects, we can eliminate just a slice of that pie and pay for many necessary programs).
My insurance from my last employer cost $450 per pay period, we each shared half the cost. Our pay periods were two weeks long... so, $900 per month? It was a company with over 60 employees. I know everyone pays different amounts, but are you happy with the status quo? I think it's sh*t, and I hope most Americans are fed up too.
Maybe we can't wrap our minds around the perfect solution now, but we can at least agree something needs to be done. We're being nickel and dimed and our incomes aren't rising fast enough to keep up.
Posted by TK | May 18, 2006 9:05 PM
Health care is my number one issue in '08. We CAN do something about our own failing healthcare system.
Maybe that's why I'd totally vote for Kitzhaber.
Posted by The Silver Fox | May 18, 2006 10:46 PM
Except for the opportunity to do something about health care, I'd think the Dems might prefer to take a pass in 2008: Iraq, deficits, expiring tax cuts, oil prices and supplies -- it's all toxic.
Posted by Allan L. | May 19, 2006 2:08 PM
My prediction: Clinton beats Allen (proving the backers of the Republican politicians are not done with "Dumb'n'Mean") despite the massive vote fraud in Allen's favor. Republican voters will begin to jump on the Verifiable Elections bandwagon much to the dismay of certain Republican politicians. Clinton's presidency will begin rocky but will gain support by stopping the financial hemorrhaging of the country and withdrawing some soldiers from Iraq.
Of course, I will refuse to vote for candidates of either of these corrupt parties and will support another candidate.
Posted by tc | May 20, 2006 2:05 PM
Paul Allen's running next time?
Posted by Allan L. | May 20, 2006 2:11 PM
I'm sorry, but John Edwards is a joke. While arguing a case in court, he actually claimed to be channeling the spirit of a girl with cerebral palsy named Jennifer Campbell.
Source: CNS news
We should be looking to him to try and fix our high health care costs? Lawyers like him are part of the problem, not the solution.
The man is nothing more than an ethically challenged lawyer (pardon the redundancy), and I still cannot believe that he was a serious presidential candidate for the Democratic Party. He belongs on Coast-to-Coast AM, not in the White House.
Posted by Anonymous | May 22, 2006 6:01 PM