Election year politics are fun to watch and guess about. Now it looks as though Portland City Commissioner Dan Saltzman has given up trying to get police and fire pension reform on the May primary ballot. Reports have it that he'll settle for a charter amendment measure in the November general election. As noted here last week, he pretty much had to, since three of his colleagues were stacked up against him.

In May, of course, Saltzman himself will be on the ballot, running for re-election against formidable challenger Amanda Fritz and some lesser-knowns. Depending on the outcome of that election, Saltzman may or may not also be up for a vote again in a November runoff against Fritz.

It's entirely possible, though, that by May 17, Saltzman will be either conclusively in for another four years, or out entirely. Any candidate who gets a majority vote in the primary is the winner -- there will be no runoff if either he or Fritz draws more than 50 percent of votes cast.

And if Saltzman's a lame duck come May 17, well, he won't be ramming too many reforms through thereafter. Meanwhile, Fritz, even if she wins hands down in the primary, wouldn't be sworn in (or paid as a commissioner) until January, by which time the shouting could all be over. At best, those with vested interests in the current system would be playing the "You're the new kid, let us show you what you have to do" card on her as forcefully as possible.

In any event, it's clear that the bluecoat retirement gumbo will get to stew in the City Hall crockpot for at least another 10 months before the voters get to do anything about it. Given that the most serious questions about the system made a big splash in the media way back last summer, that's an awfully long time to talk and study.

And didn't I read somewhere that the entire police union contract is back on the table this month? Is it realistic to expect that any sort of "consensus" among "stakeholders" on pension and disability is going to emerge while those negotiations are ongoing (no doubt mostly in secret)? And won't the union be pushing to head off serious reforms by insisting on a renewal of the existing system as part of the contract?

To me, it looks like a major confrontation is in the offing, and it's just a question of when. Our city fathers have decided that the answer to the question is, not any time soon.

There may be some big changes in November, and there may not. Meanwhile, the financial bomb keeps a-ticking. Nearly 24 cents of every dollar the city collects in property taxes continues to go to pay for safety officer pension and disability benefits.