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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on May 17, 2012 7:49 AM. The previous post in this blog was From Matt Wuerker. The next post in this blog is Mayor Creepy: Portland State will be better than NYU. Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.



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Thursday, May 17, 2012

Reader poll: Who will be next Portland mayor?

Here's a wild one: Last fall, Char-Lie Hales tried to talk Jeffer-Sam Smith out of running for mayor. What a classic Portland bully move. Remember when the Scone took Fireman Randy to Morton's and told him he'd better endorse quick for mayor or suffer the consequences? That didn't turn out well.

If we had to predict the winner right now, we'd have to bet on Smith. What do you think? Your prediction, please -- not your preference:

Who will be the next mayor of Portland? free polls 

Last September, a plurality of readers here predicted that Eileen Brady would win in a runoff. Four out of five of our 450 or so respondents called the primary wrong.

Comments (31)

Smith will get all the labor support and most of the Obama voters (manly will simply leave the rest of their ballots blank after voting for Barack). This will be enough to put him over the top, much to the chagrin of willy week and the merc.

And by "manly" I meant "many"

It will be interesting to see if money trumps populism. I assume Hales will be the better funded candidate, but in Portland, who knows which way the wind will blow. I thought that with Brady both sides would be happy (ier), but the vote was split and now the centrists (such as they are in Pdx) need to choose.

Creepier - The Sequel

There's a reason Jefferson Smith starts out depicting Charlie Hales in, as you describe it, "a classic Portland bully move."
Jefferson Smith is the classic bully and the key move is to deflect from that. It's why George W. named his message "compassionate conservatism" - because he was missing the part of his soul where compassion lies.

Hopefully we'll all get a glimpse of the real Jefferson Smith, but people like this are very good at hiding. He's spent years using his smarts to cover his weirdness. And now the first takeaway from the new campaign is what a bully Hales is. That's classic all right.

For a second there, Jack, you really had me worried. Jefferson Smith, the next mayor? I had to calm my nerves by reviewing some of your posts about John Edwards. I think my favorite was one called, "Edwards: too nice a guy."

Smith's biggest asset in the general will be a likely high young/liberal turnout due to the close national presidential race. Hales has a more "solid" base in terms of turnout, but Smith has exponentially more upside in that department. Plus, my guess is Brady throws her support behind Smith.

I like to refer to this sort of poll as "taste-testing dog crap". Now if you'll excuse me, I'm buying a 55-gallon drum of Listerine and a belt sander. Don't wait up.

Hales Crowd-Status quo, light rail, Portland business, Goldy, CRC, Old money, 45+.

Smith Crowd-Keep it weird, labor, bicycle, green, 420, Occupy, anything-for-nothing, Sam II.

I think that covers the majority of the Portland electorate. Based on that, it is still a dead heat.

So, I've done a little bit of scientific doodling. Answer this question and vote for the other guy: Which one will bankrupt Portland first?

It's obvious, you have got to vote for......(hey, that's not right!,why the hell does this thing not work!?) ah, just a minute, I have to do some more tinkering.

Jack, sorry for my previous comment. I was not "too nice a guy" to go with that.

However, I've been a little bit freaked out ever since the comment from Katherine O'Brien yesterday about the "unwavering devotion" Jefferson's people have for him.

Fortunately I do write comedy for a living so I deal with stress through humor. I also know that Waco is a bit of a dated reference but these "unwavering devotion" things only crop up so often....thank goodness.

Anyway, I think we should refer to Jefferson's followers as the Bus Davidians.

The Bus Davidians. Funny, no?

Bill: That reference is perhaps too tragic.

But maybe this works: Buswan Shree Rashneesh.

"Bus Davidians" I like it! Of course most of the majority of the Bus Davidians are too young to get the joke, but it's on them so who cares?

Good stuff there Bill McDonald... very good stuff..

I may end up just writing in someone since voting for either of these choices feels much to much like throwing my vote away anywa...

Jefferson's groupies remind me more of the Heaven's Gate cult.

Jefferson Smith is the classic bully and the key move is to deflect from that.

I heard Max Brumm talk @ the Smith bully moves during an interview on KPOJ with Carl Wolfson last week. Something about phone harassment if I recall?? Nice....

Either way the citizens of Portland are screwed!

Maybe Max Brumm is the key to this. If Jefferson Smith was a bully to this great young person, it will show what I'm talking about. It will also confirm my analysis of Jeffy's shaky "personality."

I drove through the upscale Eastmoreland neighborhood a few days before the primary, and the rows of lawn signs for Hales, house after house after house, was breathtaking if not a bit weird.

How could I vote (if I could)for someone who is either a tax cheat or fraudulent voter? Write in anybody.

Bill McDonald, "However, I've been a little bit freaked out ever since the comment from Katherine [it's Kathleen] O'Brien yesterday about the "unwavering devotion" Jefferson's people have for him." Thanks for the mention. It's Kathleen. I've been a lawyer here in town for 29 years. First time I've ever heard I freaked anybody out. Good luck to you, Mr. McDonald.

These polls need an option to write someone in. I can't, in all good conscience, stomach voting for either of them.

I sort of favor, "Smithdronians" for the followers of Mr. Smith.

I wasn't freaked out by you. It was the idea that Jefferson Smith has got followers with "unwavering devotion." I think you're right about that by the way.
Best wishes to you.

Mr. McDonald, I don't think Charlie's phone call/lunch advice was meant as fatherly.

Maybe I am somewhat insensitive, but we really shouldn't step in until it gets physical - like a forced haircut or a noogie..

Though turnout will be much hirer, and maybe a bit younger (Obama isn't going to get the same youth support this time around), I have a hard time believing Smith can make up 10 points considering there's no real substantive difference between the two.

Seems to me Hales and Smith probably split Brady's votes, with a slight nod going to Hales, as Brady was, oddly enough, the most conservative of the three. Given that, I think more conservative democratic voters will probably go with the older fellow.

Bill McD -- the tragedy of the Branch Davidians wasn't so much of what they did, as it was of what was done to them and how many US Agencies did it.

Nevertheless, "Bus Davidians" is VERY catchy way to describe the Smith followers.


It's not meant as a comment about the actual events of that day, as much as the whole cult-like mentality in general. The "charismatic" leader who wants power. The young people who think he's just neat.

By the way, one young person who's not on the bus is Max Brumm. Max is convinced that Jefferson Smith should never hold any kind of office in Portland ever. He has a long list of Jefferson Smith bullying incidents during the campaign that should be enough to expose Jefferson for what he really is. Max calls him a hypocrite.

This isn't about policy - Max actually agrees with the progressive stuff. It's more about a mask that Jefferson uses to hide his true bullying self.

Portland's going to realize where Jefferson Smith is coming from before this is over, and it's not pretty.

Chuck: The final vote spread between Hales and Smith was 4.5 not 10 points. That's a much easier chasm to span.

Leonard is a bully. Smith is a bully. Leonard supported Smith. Anybody surprised?


I remember the WACO tragedy Bill McD. I was in 6th grade and came back from gym class to my teacher playing the live feed on the classroom radio. Too this day, it's nothing I ever joke about. Didn't the OK bombing and Columbine shooting happen on the anniversaries of the initial tragedy?

Stick to comedy my friend, mixing tragedy with light heartedness isn't funny.

Tragedy and comedy are 2 sides of the same coin.
Oh and by the way, although the Branch Davidians are tied to Waco, they are a Protestant sect going back to 1955.
That being said, I'm sorry if this was not funny for you.
I believe comedy can express truth. Wars are tragic things and yet Bob Hope went to several wars and told jokes about the wars to the soldiers fighting them.
If we cross off everything that is tragic to someone, we won't have much left to talk about.
I'm guessing that you didn't like the message about Jefferson so you're trying to apply a head trip as a counter. If so, that's fair. But if not, I'm sorry.

6 grade must have been tough enough for you without me dragging back any memories.

I call them Smithophants.


As a lawyer/blogger, I get
to be a member of:

In Vino Veritas

Lange, Pinot Gris 2015
Kiona, Lemberger 2014
Willamette Valley, Pinot Gris 2015
Aix, Rosé de Provence 2016
Marchigüe, Cabernet 2013
Inazío Irruzola, Getariako Txakolina Rosé 2015
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Campo Viejo, Rioja Reserva 2011
Kirkland, Côtes de Provence Rosé 2016
Cantele, Salice Salentino Reserva 2013
Whispering Angel, Côtes de Provence Rosé 2013
Avissi, Prosecco
Cleto Charli, Lambrusco di Sorbara Secco, Vecchia Modena
Pique Poul, Rosé 2016
Edmunds St. John, Bone-Jolly Rosé 2016
Stoller, Pinot Noir Rosé 2016
Chehalem, Inox Chardonnay 2015
The Four Graces, Pinot Gris 2015
Gascón, Colosal Red 2013
Cardwell Hill, Pinot Gris 2015
L'Ecole No. 41, Merlot 2013
Della Terra, Anonymus
Willamette Valley, Dijon Clone Chardonnay 2013
Wraith, Cabernet, Eidolon Estate 2012
Januik, Red 2015
Tomassi, Valpolicella, Rafaél, 2014
Sharecropper's Pinot Noir 2013
Helix, Pomatia Red Blend 2013
La Espera, Cabernet 2011
Campo Viejo, Rioja Reserva 2011
Villa Antinori, Toscana 2013
Locations, Spanish Red Wine
Locations, Argentinian Red Wine
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Abacela, Vintner's Blend #16 Abacela, Fiesta Tempranillo 2014
Benton Hill, Pinot Gris 2015
Primarius, Pinot Gris 2015
Januik, Merlot 2013
Napa Cellars, Cabernet 2013
J. Bookwalter, Protagonist 2012
LAN, Rioja Edicion Limitada 2011
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 2009
Denada Cellars, Cabernet, Maipo Valley 2014
Marchigüe, Cabernet, Colchagua Valley 2013
Oberon, Cabernet 2014
Hedges, Red Mountain 2012
Balboa, Rose of Grenache 2015
Ontañón, Rioja Reserva 2015
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Archery Summit, Vireton Pinot Gris 2014
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Chateau Ste. Michelle, Pinot Gris 2014
Conn Creek, Cabernet, Napa 2012
Conn Creek, Cabernet, Napa 2013
Villa Maria, Sauvignon Blanc 2015
G3, Cabernet 2013
Chateau Smith, Cabernet, Washington State 2014
Abacela, Vintner's Blend #16
Willamette Valley, Rose of Pinot Noir, Whole Clusters 2015
Albero, Bobal Rose 2015
Ca' del Baio Barbaresco Valgrande 2012
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Lugana, San Benedetto 2014
Wente, Cabernet, Charles Wetmore 2011
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King Estate, Pinot Gris 2015
Adelsheim, Pinot Gris 2015
Trader Joe's, Pinot Gris, Willamette Valley 2015
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The Occasional Book

Marc Maron - Waiting for the Punch
Phil Stanford - Rose City Vice
Kenneth R. Feinberg - What is Life Worth?
Kent Haruf - Our Souls at Night
Peter Carey - True History of the Kelly Gang
Suzanne Collins - The Hunger Games
Amy Stewart - Girl Waits With Gun
Philip Roth - The Plot Against America
Norm Macdonald - Based on a True Story
Christopher Buckley - Boomsday
Ryan Holiday - The Obstacle is the Way
Ruth Sepetys - Between Shades of Gray
Richard Adams - Watership Down
Claire Vaye Watkins - Gold Fame Citrus
Markus Zusak - I am the Messenger
Anthony Doerr - All the Light We Cannot See
James Joyce - Dubliners
Cheryl Strayed - Torch
William Golding - Lord of the Flies
Saul Bellow - Mister Sammler's Planet
Phil Stanford - White House Call Girl
John Kaplan & Jon R. Waltz - The Trial of Jack Ruby
Kent Haruf - Eventide
David Halberstam - Summer of '49
Norman Mailer - The Naked and the Dead
Maria Dermoȗt - The Ten Thousand Things
William Faulkner - As I Lay Dying
Markus Zusak - The Book Thief
Christopher Buckley - Thank You for Smoking
William Shakespeare - Othello
Joseph Conrad - Heart of Darkness
Bill Bryson - A Short History of Nearly Everything
Cheryl Strayed - Tiny Beautiful Things
Sara Varon - Bake Sale
Stephen King - 11/22/63
Paul Goldstein - Errors and Omissions
Mark Twain - A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur's Court
Steve Martin - Born Standing Up: A Comic's Life
Beverly Cleary - A Girl from Yamhill, a Memoir
Kent Haruf - Plainsong
Hope Larson - A Wrinkle in Time, the Graphic Novel
Rudyard Kipling - Kim
Peter Ames Carlin - Bruce
Fran Cannon Slayton - When the Whistle Blows
Neil Young - Waging Heavy Peace
Mark Bego - Aretha Franklin, the Queen of Soul (2012 ed.)
Jenny Lawson - Let's Pretend This Never Happened
J.D. Salinger - Franny and Zooey
Charles Dickens - A Christmas Carol
Timothy Egan - The Big Burn
Deborah Eisenberg - Transactions in a Foreign Currency
Kurt Vonnegut Jr. - Slaughterhouse Five
Kathryn Lance - Pandora's Genes
Cheryl Strayed - Wild
Fyodor Dostoyevsky - The Brothers Karamazov
Jack London - The House of Pride, and Other Tales of Hawaii
Jack Walker - The Extraordinary Rendition of Vincent Dellamaria
Colum McCann - Let the Great World Spin
Niccolò Machiavelli - The Prince
Harper Lee - To Kill a Mockingbird
Emma McLaughlin & Nicola Kraus - The Nanny Diaries
Brian Selznick - The Invention of Hugo Cabret
Sharon Creech - Walk Two Moons
Keith Richards - Life
F. Sionil Jose - Dusk
Natalie Babbitt - Tuck Everlasting
Justin Halpern - S#*t My Dad Says
Mark Herrmann - The Curmudgeon's Guide to Practicing Law
Barry Glassner - The Gospel of Food
Phil Stanford - The Peyton-Allan Files
Jesse Katz - The Opposite Field
Evelyn Waugh - Brideshead Revisited
J.K. Rowling - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
David Sedaris - Holidays on Ice
Donald Miller - A Million Miles in a Thousand Years
Mitch Albom - Have a Little Faith
C.S. Lewis - The Magician's Nephew
F. Scott Fitzgerald - The Great Gatsby
William Shakespeare - A Midsummer Night's Dream
Ivan Doig - Bucking the Sun
Penda Diakité - I Lost My Tooth in Africa
Grace Lin - The Year of the Rat
Oscar Hijuelos - Mr. Ives' Christmas
Madeline L'Engle - A Wrinkle in Time
Steven Hart - The Last Three Miles
David Sedaris - Me Talk Pretty One Day
Karen Armstrong - The Spiral Staircase
Charles Larson - The Portland Murders
Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
Steven D. Stark - Meet the Beatles
Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
Rick Moody - Garden State
Jonathan Schwartz - All in Good Time
David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim
Anthony Holden - Big Deal
Robert J. Spitzer - The Spirit of Leadership
James McManus - Positively Fifth Street
Jeff Noon - Vurt

Road Work

Miles run year to date: 5
At this date last year: 3
Total run in 2017: 113
In 2016: 155
In 2015: 271
In 2014: 401
In 2013: 257
In 2012: 129
In 2011: 113
In 2010: 125
In 2009: 67
In 2008: 28
In 2007: 113
In 2006: 100
In 2005: 149
In 2004: 204
In 2003: 269

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