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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on January 17, 2012 6:53 AM. The previous post in this blog was Mayor advises caution, blows town. The next post in this blog is More attitude from O reporters. Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

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Tuesday, January 17, 2012

This is it! The final underdogs.

Players in our charity underdog game, here ye be:

7.5 BALTIMORE at New England
2.5 NEW YORK GIANTS at San Francisco

A reminder of our prize structure:

First prize - $510 to player's favorite charity
Second prize - $165 to player's favorite charity
Third prize - $105 to player's favorite charity
Fourth prize - $75 to player's favorite charity
Fifth prize - $55 to player's favorite charity

We still have 10 players with a shot at the five prizes. In fact, all 10 have at least a mathematical possibility of getting a piece of the first prize. But everybody else in the contest, don't give up -- make that last pick just for pride. Folks at the top, good luck with the chess game.

In case of ties, the prizes will be split. For example, if two players are tied for second, we'll combine second ($165) and third ($105) and give their charities each half ($135 each). There are no tiebreakers in the underdog contest.

Picks are due by noon Pacific Time on Sunday.

Comments (7)

Sweet, we can have a NY Giants Super Bowl Rematch regardless of who wins the AFC...

Go G-men!

Fly Ravens Fly...

Mojo's Best Bets
Bad Luck Shadow Edition

Mojo's Best Bet & Upset Special
(Last week 2-1; overall 21-38)

NY GIANTS (+2.5) at San Francisco -- This game is probably going to be decided by the comparative play of the QBs, and I just don't know how anyone would sensibly bet against Eli Manning this week. I don't care how rah-rah Coach, and former NFL QB, Jim Harbaugh is, or how well SF QB Alex Smith played last week. And while it was so heart warming to see SF TE Vernon Davis have that game performance for the ages last week, Manning is every bit as hot as Brady right now, if not more -- and he's the difference-maker in this game.

We can call the rushing attacks of these two teams basically even, with perhaps a slight edge to the Giants only because they've got two good ones and SF has but the one excellent one. Their defenses are both performing at high levels, with the 49ers especially tough against the run, but the Giants pass rush is by far the best one left in the playoffs. The Giants came out of the chute hitting the Packers so hard (on special teams as well), it had an immediate and reverberating effect in last week's game.

As much as the 49ers respond to Jim Harbaugh's inspirational coaching, the Giants are playing that much harder for Tom Coughlin, who has years of big game playoff experience.

Coney Island Baby ~ Lou Reed
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPHbbvQEA1E

The Niners have the all-around offensive edge in special teams (even though NY has the sensational Victor Cruz as a return man), with punter Andy Lee averaging over 50 yards a punt and with the NFL's best kicker, David Akers, likely to be their hero if SF is going to survive this formidable challenge from the G-Men. Ted Ginn, Jr. better make sure he hangs onto the football in kick returns, or the Giants are going to eat him alive. And if you believe the NFL games are fixed -- especially after last week's "outer limits" refereeing in Green Bay -- with the spread here at 2.5 you might want to lay off this one and go for the big upset with Baltimore. Just sayin'.

Me? After what has gone on so far this season, I think the Giants are going to win it all now.

Gambler's Corner

BALTIMORE (+7.5) at New England -- While the Ravens defense and special teams might save them, their struggles with offensive consistency and scoring, and the unpredictability of QB Joe Flacco makes this underdog pick a bona fide gamble. Keep your eyes on Baltimore's blazing WR Torrey Smith, tough. And Anquan Boldin is a very tough match-up for the Patriots to counter, and look for Flacco to go to him early on 3rd downs, alternating with throws to RB Ray Rice out of the backfield at times. The Ravens need to be up at halftime by at least 10 to have an honest chance at pulling off this very possible upset.

Belichick and JoePa replacement-to-be, Patriots offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien, have crafted an near-unstoppable pinchers blitzkrieg maneuver using their beastly tight end combo of Gronkowski and Hernandez -- aka "The Boston TE Party." Meanwhile, Wes Welker is a buzz bomb underneath, especially if he's slipping behind the TEs in the midfield. Don't forget about him. He's a game-breaker. The pressure is on Ravens defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano to transfer pressure directly onto Tom Brady through Ravens monster linebacker Terrell Suggs -- with strategic blitzes from the CB and S positions. Look for that in key 1st and 3rd down situations, especially in the 2nd half.

You should be able to gauge the Ravens' chances of success based on the condition of Patriots' QB Tom Brady's uniform. For the Ravens to win, Brady's uni has to be smudged up good before halftime, and on throughout the second half, most of all.

Going into this game the shadow of doubt has been lurking in the Ravens camp (S Ed Reed dissing QB Flacco; Ed Reed knee injury; Flacco in a flak about skateboarding at home, etc.), while the Patriots quietly and intently prepare in their usual championship mode to do what it takes to defeat them. Not a good sign for Baltimore.

Tough to bet against the Pats this weekend to pick up underdog points -- though I expect the Ravens will cover the spread by the 0.5 offset. And for you long-shotters, don't expect any help from Mother Nature, because the weather isn't expected to be a factor this week or weekend. It's straight-up, hand-to-hand combat. The best team performance on Sunday will win it.

Johnny Otis ~ Bad Luck Shadow
feat. Shuggie Otis (1975)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RidQIFVLoAc


Hey, it's been a fun, kids. I hope you've gotten a kick of it too. And thanks again, Jack, for running this charity game. "Wintry mix" to you!

Here's an insightful statistical analysis of Sunday's NY-SF game by Doug Farrar @Shutdown Corner --

Smarter Stats: New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/smarter-stats-york-giants-san-francisco-49ers-003708255.html

And this weekend's game reminds me of this all-time great who played for both the 49ers & the Giants, and is still with us at the age of 85. Surely, he'll be watching! --

Fallen Giant
By Michael Shapiro
Smithsonian magazine, February 2007
http://www.smithsonianmag.com/people-places/fallen_giant.html

Joe Namath’s Playoff Blog: Conference Championship Edition
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/joe-namath-playoff-blog-conference-championship-edition-024919034.html

Excerpt:

There has been some crazy weather this week that will affect Sunday's playoff games. San Francisco? Well, let's just say that city looks like the animals are lining up two by two, waiting to get on the ark. Noah himself might need to get the two teams to the stadium with all the rain they're having. I know the 49ers and New York Giants have been talking about it and are aware that this could be a Mud Bowl.

And Chad Ochocinco tweeted this morning that he had to shovel out his driveway, which means that the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens will have to cope with cold and possibly snow, always a threat in the Northeast.

Weight of future championship falls on Flacco's shoulders
http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/ravens/bs-sp-cowherd-column-0122-20120121,0,1311884,full.column

Scouting report: Ravens at Patriots (AFC championship)
"Jeff Zrebiec breaks down each facet of the AFC championship game between the Ravens and Patriots at Gillette Stadium, and he offers his prediction."
http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/ravens/bal-scouting-report-ravens-at-patriots-20120120,0,5236013.photogallery

Excerpt:

The Ravens finished the regular season 4-4 on the road. However, they have gone 7-0 against teams that made the playoffs this season, and 7-1 versus teams that finished the regular season with winning record. The Patriots have not beaten a team that finished with a winning record all season.

****

The Ravens have a star running back, one of the game's best defenses, and more than enough veteran leadership to win on this stage. The Patriots have a Hall of Fame quarterback and coach, an embarrassment of riches on offense, and home-field advantage. In other words, this could be a classic AFC championship game that isn't decided until deep in the final quarter. And if that is the case, it's nearly impossible to bet against Brady, who is seemingly on a mission to get the Patriots back to the Super Bowl....


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In Vino Veritas

Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2009
Mauro Molino, Barbera d'Alba 2009
Garda Chiaretto Rose
Columbia Crest, Two Vines Vineyard 10 White
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Pinot Gris, Columbia Valley 2009
L'Hortus, Rose de Saignee 2010
Maculan, Pino & Toi 2008
McKinley Springs, Bombing Range Red 2008
Trader Joe's Pinot Gris 2009
Montes Alpha, Cabernet 2007
Gran Sasso, Sangiovese, Terre di Chieti 2009
Garda, Classico Chiaretto Rose
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 1999
Picos del Montgo, Tempranillo 2008
Chateau de Montmirail, Vacqueyras 2008
La Granja 360, Syrah 2009
Montgras, Carmenere Reserva 2009
Lange, Pinot Gris 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Cabernet 2008
Kirkland, Pinot Grigio 2010
Trader Joe's Coastal Syrah 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Merlot 2008
Trader Joe's Coastal Chardonnay 2009
Vieux Papes Red
Domaine de l'Aujardiere, Chardonnay 2009
Santa Rita, Cabernet, Medalla Real 2007
Penfold's, Koonunga Hill Shiraz Cabernet 2008
Guild, Red, Lot #02 2008
Dievole, Dievolino Sangiovese 2008
Laforet, Burgogne Chardonnay 2009
Columbia Winery, Merlot 2007
Bonterra, Cabernet 2008
Elk Cove, Pinot Gris 2009
Maquis Lien 2006
Scott Paul, Pinot Noir, Le Paulee 2007
Cameron, Chardonnay
B.R. Cohn, Cabernet, Silver Label 2006
Graffigna, Cabernet 2005
Palo Alto, Reserve Red 2008
Menguante, Garnacha 2008
Lange, Pinot Gris 2009
Felsina Berardenga, Vin Santo 1997
Anne Amie, Pinot Gris 2009
McKinley Springs, Bombing Ramge Red 2007
Vieux Papes Red
Dionysius Chardonnay 2009
Haden Fig, Pinot Noir 2009
Vega Montan, Mencia 2008
Chateau la Vernede, Coteaux du Languedoc 2007
Mount Defiance, Hellfire (White) 2008
Root: 1, Cabernet 2008
Columbia Crest, Two Vines Pinot Grigio 2009
Columbia Crest, Two Vines, Vineyard 10 White, 2008
Columbia Crest, Two Vines, Vineyard 10 Rose, 2007
Abacela, Grenache Rose 2009
Avia Cabernet 2004
Lemelson Pinot Noir, Thea's Selection 2007
Chateau de la Roulerie, Rose d'Anjou 2009
Casal Garcia, Vinho Verde Rose
La Ferme Julien, Rose 2008
Cana's Feast, Bricco Red, 2006
Hogue, Genesis Merlot, 2008
Owen Roe, Sharecropper's Cabernet, 2008
Kim Crawford, Unoaked Chardonnay 2008
J. Scott, Pinot Noir 2008
Edmunds St. John, White, Heart of Gold 2008
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2006
Stevenot, Cabernet, Sierra Foothills, "Stanford" 2000
Portuga, Vinho Rose 2009
Taylor Fladgate, First Estate Reserve Porto
Franciscan, Cabernet, Napa 2006
Chaparral de Vega Sindoa, Garnacha 2008
Quinta da Aveleda, Vinho Verde 2008
St. Francis, Chardonnay Sonoma 2008
E. Guigal, Cotes du Rhone Blanc, 2007
Edmunds St. John, Bone-Jolly, Gamay Noir 2008
St. Innocent, Pinot Noir 2006
Jigsaw, Pinot Noir 2007
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Merlot, Indian Wells 2007
Charles Shaw, Chardonnay 2008
Edmunds St. John, Bone-Jolly, Gamay Rosé 2009
Cameron, Willamette Valley Chardonnay
Il Valore, Sangiovese, Giovane, Puglia 2008
Duck Pond, Chardonnay, Wahluke Slope 2007
Kim Crawford, Marlborough Pinot Noir 2008
Domaine du Pesquier, Cotes du Rhone 2005
Cantina Zaccagnini, Montepulciano d'Abruzzo 2006
Domaine Matrot, Chardonnay, Bourgogne 2007
David Hill, Oregon Sparkling Wine, Brut
Chandler Reach, Monte Regalo 2006
Elk Cove, Pinot Gris 2008
Kirkland, Columbia Valley Merlot 2008
D'Aragon, Old Vine Garnacha 2008
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2005
Pavin & Riley, Merlot 2006
David Hill, Estate Pinot Noir, Barrel Select 2006
Castle Rock, Paso Robles Cabernet 2006
Magnificent, Cabernet, Steak House 2008
Conundrum 2008
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 1998
Saint Cosme, Cotes-du-Rhone 2007
La Granja, Tempranillo 360, 2008
Santa Rita, Mendalla Real Cabernet 2006
Columbia Crest, Grand Estates Merlot 2006
Andezon, Cotes-du-Rhone 2007
Collegiata, Montepulciano d'Abruzzo
Troon, Druid's Fluid 2008
La Granja, Tempranillo 2008
Monte Antico, Toscana 2006
Vieux Papes, Blanc de Blancs

The Occasional Book

Jack London - The House of Pride, and Other Tales of Hawaii
Jack Walker - The Extraordinary Rendition of Vincent Dellamaria
Colum McCann - Let the Great World Spin
Niccolò Machiavelli - The Prince
Harper Lee - To Kill a Mockingbird
Emma McLaughlin & Nicola Kraus - The Nanny Diaries
Brian Selznick - The Invention of Hugo Cabret
Sharon Creech - Walk Two Moons
Keith Richards - Life
F. Sionil Jose - Dusk
Natalie Babbitt - Tuck Everlasting
Justin Halpern - S#*t My Dad Says
Mark Herrmann - The Curmudgeon's Guide to Practicing Law
Barry Glassner - The Gospel of Food
Phil Stanford - The Peyton-Allan Files
Jesse Katz - The Opposite Field
Evelyn Waugh - Brideshead Revisited
J.K. Rowling - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
David Sedaris - Holidays on Ice
Donald Miller - A Million Miles in a Thousand Years
Mitch Albom - Have a Little Faith
C.S. Lewis - The Magician's Nephew
F. Scott Fitzgerald - The Great Gatsby
William Shakespeare - A Midsummer Night's Dream
Ivan Doig - Bucking the Sun
Penda Diakité - I Lost My Tooth in Africa
Grace Lin - The Year of the Rat
Oscar Hijuelos - Mr. Ives' Christmas
Madeline L'Engle - A Wrinkle in Time
Steven Hart - The Last Three Miles
David Sedaris - Me Talk Pretty One Day
Karen Armstrong - The Spiral Staircase
Charles Larson - The Portland Murders
Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
Steven D. Stark - Meet the Beatles
Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
Rick Moody - Garden State
Jonathan Schwartz - All in Good Time
David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim
Anthony Holden - Big Deal
Robert J. Spitzer - The Spirit of Leadership
James McManus - Positively Fifth Street
Jeff Noon - Vurt

Road Work

Miles run year to date: 54
At this date last year: 50
Total run in 2011: 113
In 2010: 125
In 2009: 67
In 2008: 28
In 2007: 113
In 2006: 100
In 2005: 149
In 2004: 204
In 2003: 269


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