This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on September 12, 2009 2:08 PM.
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Corus Bank, the party largely responsible for a lot of the bunkers around town, has been seized by the FDIC. I wonder if the pennies on the dollar crowd are going to be excited about "waiting for prices to return back to normal" instead of liquidating these overpriced bunkers?
I think things are about to get very real for Homer and the boys.
Comments (4)
I am thinking we'll probably have a double dip recession over the next two years. The cause will be another spike in oil prices like last year's. So, maybe your right about local commercial real estate. It's too bad because if it weren't for oil I think we'd be starting a new secular bull market. The primary reason is the rest of the world seems to have an insatiable appetite for buying up U.S debt at very low interest rates. If the U.S were to invest these cheap dollars half way wisely, the U.S economy could be strong for a decade or more similar to the 80s and 90s.
I too believer we are in for a second leg of a recession, but it wont be as bad as the first. But I think you are overstating the importance of oil. At the current price of $70 a Bbl., the value of all the imported petroleum and petroleum products to the US is 2% of the economy. I think we will see a second downturn next year because too many households will be so deep in financial trouble that consumer spending wont recover like it normally does. It also does not help that there is far too much commercial space that will be foreclosed on (mixed-use development was foolish because it forced people to build unwanted retail space).
I too think there will be a double dip on the recession and I agree that some of it will be due to consumers NOT jumping in as they have in the past (and I think that's a good thing). I don't think it will be oil driven due to the latest oil find. I do think that commercial real estate will play a big part.
Question to Bob Clark - what is a 'secular' bull market?
A double dip is certainly possible. It is unlikely, however, without Fed tightening. But even without a double dip, prospects for a strong and sustained recovery are dim. The forces at work are more gradual and ominous.
Here's the rub. Interest rates are low not only because of what the Fed has done.
Personal savings is up close to $300 billion from its nadir during the credit bubble, while business investment is down close to $700 billion from its peak. Together these shifts close demand/supply imbalances for capital by a trillion dollars, and largely explain why interest interest rates have remained low along the entire yield curve.
Increased savings and reduced demand for private investment have been a big help in financing the federal deficit even as the demand for the US dollar has weakened.
If consumer spending picks up (i.e., savings decrease) and/or business investment builds (one or both of which are necessary predicates for a strong economy) the available capital will be squeezed, driving up the cost of capital (think higher mortgage interest rates, higher APR's for car financing, higher corporate borrowing costs etc.) and constraining growth.
At the same time debt service for the federal deficit (which is primarily financed with short term securities) will grow merely to pay off creditors.
Charamba, Douro 2008
Horse Heaven Hills, Cabernet 2010
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills Pinot Grigio 2011
Avignonesi, Montepulciano 2004
Lorelle, Willamette Valley Pinot Noir 2011
Villa Antinori, Toscana 2007
Mercedes Eguren, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
Lorelle, Columbia Valley Cabernet 2011
Purple Moon, Merlot 2011
Purple Moon, Chardonnnay 2011
Abacela, Vintner's Blend No. 12
Opula Red Blend 2010
Liberte, Pinot Noir 2010
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Indian Wells Red Blend 2010
Woodbridge, Chardonnay 2011
King Estate, Pinot Noir 2011
Famille Perrin, Cotes du Rhone Villages 2010
Columbia Crest, Les Chevaux Red 2010
14 Hands, Hot to Trot White Blend
Familia Bianchi, Malbec 2009
Terrapin Cellars, Pinot Gris 2011
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2009
Campo Viejo, Rioja, Termpranillo 2010
Ravenswood, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2010
Waterbrook, Reserve Merlot 2009
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills, Pinot Grigio 2011
Tarantas, Rose
Chateau Lajarre, Bordeaux 2009
La Vielle Ferme, Rose 2011
Benvolio, Pinot Grigio 2011
Nobilo Icon, Pinot Noir 2009
Lello, Douro Tinto 2009
Quinson Fils, Cotes de Provence Rose 2011
Anindor, Pinot Gris 2010
Buenas Ondas, Syrah Rose 2010
Les Fiefs d'Anglars, Malbec 2009
14 Hands, Pinot Gris 2011
Conundrum 2012
Condes de Albarei, Albariño 2011
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2007
Penelope Sanchez, Garnacha Syrah 2010
Canoe Ridge, Merlot 2007
Atalaya do Mar, Godello 2010
Vega Montan, Mencia
Benvolio, Pinot Grigio
Nobilo Icon, Pinot Noir, Marlborough 2009
Portuga, Rose 2011
Revelation, Chardonnay, Pays d'Oc 2010
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 2005
Monte Alto, Tinto Reserva 2005
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Cabernet, Indian Wells 2009
Espiral, Vinho Rose
Vin-Koru, Pinot Gris 2011
14 Hands, Hot to Trot Red 2009
Rodney Strong, Cabernet, Sonoma 2009
Abacela, Vintner's Blend #11
Portuga, White 2010
La Bourgeoisie, Red 2009
Januik, Red 2009
Three Rivers, River's Red 2008
Kirkland, Alexander Valley Merlot 2008
Muga, Rioja Rose 2010
Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2009
Mauro Molino, Barbera d'Alba 2009
Garda Chiaretto Rose
Columbia Crest, Two Vines Vineyard 10 White
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Pinot Gris, Columbia Valley 2009
L'Hortus, Rose de Saignee 2010
Maculan, Pino & Toi 2008
McKinley Springs, Bombing Range Red 2008
Trader Joe's Pinot Gris 2009
Montes Alpha, Cabernet 2007
Gran Sasso, Sangiovese, Terre di Chieti 2009
Garda, Classico Chiaretto Rose
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 1999
Picos del Montgo, Tempranillo 2008
Chateau de Montmirail, Vacqueyras 2008
La Granja 360, Syrah 2009
Montgras, Carmenere Reserva 2009
Lange, Pinot Gris 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Cabernet 2008
Kirkland, Pinot Grigio 2010
Trader Joe's Coastal Syrah 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Merlot 2008
Trader Joe's Coastal Chardonnay 2009
Vieux Papes Red
Domaine de l'Aujardiere, Chardonnay 2009
Santa Rita, Cabernet, Medalla Real 2007
Penfold's, Koonunga Hill Shiraz Cabernet 2008
Guild, Red, Lot #02 2008
Dievole, Dievolino Sangiovese 2008
Laforet, Burgogne Chardonnay 2009
Columbia Winery, Merlot 2007
Bonterra, Cabernet 2008
Elk Cove, Pinot Gris 2009
Maquis Lien 2006
Scott Paul, Pinot Noir, Le Paulee 2007
The Occasional Book
Neil Young - Waging Heavy Peace
Mark Bego - Aretha Franklin, the Queen of Soul (2012 ed.)
Jenny Lawson - Let's Pretend This Never Happened
J.D. Salinger - Franny and Zooey
Charles Dickens - A Christmas Carol
Timothy Egan - The Big Burn
Deborah Eisenberg - Transactions in a Foreign Currency
Kurt Vonnegut Jr. - Slaughterhouse Five
Kathryn Lance - Pandora's Genes
Cheryl Strayed - Wild
Fyodor Dostoyevsky - The Brothers Karamazov
Jack London - The House of Pride, and Other Tales of Hawaii
Jack Walker - The Extraordinary Rendition of Vincent Dellamaria
Colum McCann - Let the Great World Spin
Niccolò Machiavelli - The Prince
Harper Lee - To Kill a Mockingbird
Emma McLaughlin & Nicola Kraus - The Nanny Diaries
Brian Selznick - The Invention of Hugo Cabret
Sharon Creech - Walk Two Moons
Keith Richards - Life
F. Sionil Jose - Dusk
Natalie Babbitt - Tuck Everlasting
Justin Halpern - S#*t My Dad Says
Mark Herrmann - The Curmudgeon's Guide to Practicing Law
Barry Glassner - The Gospel of Food
Phil Stanford - The Peyton-Allan Files
Jesse Katz - The Opposite Field
Evelyn Waugh - Brideshead Revisited
J.K. Rowling - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
David Sedaris - Holidays on Ice
Donald Miller - A Million Miles in a Thousand Years
Mitch Albom - Have a Little Faith
C.S. Lewis - The Magician's Nephew
F. Scott Fitzgerald - The Great Gatsby
William Shakespeare - A Midsummer Night's Dream
Ivan Doig - Bucking the Sun
Penda Diakité - I Lost My Tooth in Africa
Grace Lin - The Year of the Rat
Oscar Hijuelos - Mr. Ives' Christmas
Madeline L'Engle - A Wrinkle in Time
Steven Hart - The Last Three Miles
David Sedaris - Me Talk Pretty One Day
Karen Armstrong - The Spiral Staircase
Charles Larson - The Portland Murders
Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
Steven D. Stark - Meet the Beatles
Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
Rick Moody - Garden State
Jonathan Schwartz - All in Good Time
David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim
Anthony Holden - Big Deal
Robert J. Spitzer - The Spirit of Leadership
James McManus - Positively Fifth Street
Jeff Noon - Vurt
Road Work
Miles run year to date: 21
At this date last year: 52
Total run in 2012: 129
In 2011: 113
In 2010: 125
In 2009: 67
In 2008: 28
In 2007: 113
In 2006: 100
In 2005: 149
In 2004: 204
In 2003: 269
Comments (4)
I am thinking we'll probably have a double dip recession over the next two years. The cause will be another spike in oil prices like last year's. So, maybe your right about local commercial real estate. It's too bad because if it weren't for oil I think we'd be starting a new secular bull market. The primary reason is the rest of the world seems to have an insatiable appetite for buying up U.S debt at very low interest rates. If the U.S were to invest these cheap dollars half way wisely, the U.S economy could be strong for a decade or more similar to the 80s and 90s.
Posted by Bob Clark | September 12, 2009 8:23 PM
I too believer we are in for a second leg of a recession, but it wont be as bad as the first. But I think you are overstating the importance of oil. At the current price of $70 a Bbl., the value of all the imported petroleum and petroleum products to the US is 2% of the economy. I think we will see a second downturn next year because too many households will be so deep in financial trouble that consumer spending wont recover like it normally does. It also does not help that there is far too much commercial space that will be foreclosed on (mixed-use development was foolish because it forced people to build unwanted retail space).
Posted by B W | September 12, 2009 9:12 PM
I too think there will be a double dip on the recession and I agree that some of it will be due to consumers NOT jumping in as they have in the past (and I think that's a good thing). I don't think it will be oil driven due to the latest oil find. I do think that commercial real estate will play a big part.
Question to Bob Clark - what is a 'secular' bull market?
Posted by native oregonian | September 13, 2009 6:01 AM
A double dip is certainly possible. It is unlikely, however, without Fed tightening. But even without a double dip, prospects for a strong and sustained recovery are dim. The forces at work are more gradual and ominous.
Here's the rub. Interest rates are low not only because of what the Fed has done.
Personal savings is up close to $300 billion from its nadir during the credit bubble, while business investment is down close to $700 billion from its peak. Together these shifts close demand/supply imbalances for capital by a trillion dollars, and largely explain why interest interest rates have remained low along the entire yield curve.
Increased savings and reduced demand for private investment have been a big help in financing the federal deficit even as the demand for the US dollar has weakened.
If consumer spending picks up (i.e., savings decrease) and/or business investment builds (one or both of which are necessary predicates for a strong economy) the available capital will be squeezed, driving up the cost of capital (think higher mortgage interest rates, higher APR's for car financing, higher corporate borrowing costs etc.) and constraining growth.
At the same time debt service for the federal deficit (which is primarily financed with short term securities) will grow merely to pay off creditors.
Thus are the seeds of stagflation sown.
Posted by Grady Foster | September 13, 2009 9:09 AM