This morning has not been kind to Jeff Merkley in his race against Gordon Smith for the U.S. Senate. Smith has increased his score in Multnomah County to 29.3 percent, and if he gets more than 30 there, it was said to be a bad sign for Merkley. New numbers from Clackamas and Washington Counties show Merkley ahead, but only by a hair, in each of those places.
While we wait for further results -- now in the afternoon of the day after the election -- maybe the ardent supporters of Oregon's vote-by-mail system can tell me why, if it's so wonderful, vote-by-mail is taking so awfully long to process. It is not inspiring confidence.
UPDATE, 1:10 p.m.: I still project Merkley to win. There are still around 160,000 votes to be counted in Multnomah County, and Merkley should win those by at least a 50,000-vote margin. Outside of Multnomah County, there are around 330,000 votes left to count, and Smith should win those by around 23,000. Merkley should squeak out a win by about 15,000 votes.
UPDATE, 7:51 p.m.: It now looks as though Merkley could win by as many as 35,000 votes.
Maybe this could be an area for Sizemore to address. He could try and pass an initiative to "incentivize" elections officials to get their act together. If they fail to complete the count by midnight, they lose 50% of their budget for the next 2 years.
Just as soon as election days are made holidays, and polling stations are set up so that nobody has to wait more than, oh, 15 minutes to vote, then I'll withdraw my support for vote by mail.
There are a number of House/Senate races still outstanding, and the lion's share of them are not in vote-by-mail states so let's not get too snarky, eh?
I've also heard that the Multnomah Elections office was flooded last night.
Here's a question for Merkley and the Democrats that paid out *$10 million* to get him elected to Smith's position: Wouldn't that much money have been better spent on say, helping people without health care? Isn't THAT one of the issues the Democrats are so concerned with? HOW MANY PEOPLE COULD BE HELPED WITH $10 million????!!!!
The Secretary of State unofficial results page is maddening. It refers to the ballots counted so far as the "ballots cast" so that the "ballots cast" number changes each hour or two. The county statistics age maintains the misrepresentation.
Hey BillB, "ballots cast" is not the same thing as ballots counted. It would be much more meaningful to have a real, fixed "ballots cast" number and the current "ballots counted" number, both overall and on the county statistics page.
At 3:05 pm, Multnomah County had counted 61% of the total ballots cast with approximately 138,911 left to be counted. If Smith (23%) and Merkeley (75%) continue at the same individual rates, then Merkeley will get another 103,000 with Smith adding 31,000.
The SOS has Smith ahead statewide by 5,000 but when you consider the additional still to come from Multnomah County alone, Merkeley wins by 67,000. However, you need to do the same calculations for Lane and the other counties which still have a lot to count.
If you do the same calculations for Measure 64, it looks like it will fail.
These numbers aren't making much sense. Merkley is going backwards. CNN must not be using the SoS site, but the big jump in Smiths numbers from the Sos site seems disproportionate.
As of 5:00, there are another 125,000 ballots to count in Multnomah County, where Merkley leads Smith 151,036 to 65,848.
The SOS has Smith up 686,681 to 685,408 statewide. Krazy close!
Anybody else find it idiotic that you click on the drop-down on the SOS website and it calls up nothing. I see the orange bar for unofficial results, but frustrating that the other ain't working...
mp97303, I don't see why it's so horrible we have to wait a day or two to find out who won. I'd rather they count the ballots correctly and verify the signatures properly than hastily.
I fail to get why some folks fail to get that citing information that was said or shown on TV is not only NOT news, but worse, it is false information.
Suppose you knew someone who lied all the time. Prex Chimp, let's say. Or a gossip-monger at the workplace. And suppose that person came to you and told you some information. And you knew he lied all the time. Then are you going to run out and repeat it to all your friends? try to impress them that you are 'in the know'?
Okay, then, same thing: by the time information appears on TV, it not only is NOT news, but furthermore it has been falsified ... why? to protect the jobs and reputation of the persons on TV since working in commercial addiction-TV is the same job and reputation as a drug pusher.
"... stay tuned ... don't touch that dial ... don't you dare go away ... we'll be right back with more hits of amygdala-stimulating sexuality and violence and conflict scenes, right after these commercials containing amygdala-stimulating sexual sales-pitches so you can attract unlimited uninhibited sexual partners by buying these products ..."
Here's a question for Merkley and the Democrats that paid out *$10 million* to get him elected to Smith's position: Wouldn't that much money have been better spent on say, helping people without health care? Isn't THAT one of the issues the Democrats are so concerned with? HOW MANY PEOPLE COULD BE HELPED WITH $10 million????!!!!
I donno.
How many people could have been helped with the 568 billion we've spent on the Iraq War so far?
Fair question.
And we'll donate our cash to who we want, thank you.
Charamba, Douro 2008
Horse Heaven Hills, Cabernet 2010
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills Pinot Grigio 2011
Avignonesi, Montepulciano 2004
Lorelle, Willamette Valley Pinot Noir 2011
Villa Antinori, Toscana 2007
Mercedes Eguren, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
Lorelle, Columbia Valley Cabernet 2011
Purple Moon, Merlot 2011
Purple Moon, Chardonnnay 2011
Abacela, Vintner's Blend No. 12
Opula Red Blend 2010
Liberte, Pinot Noir 2010
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Indian Wells Red Blend 2010
Woodbridge, Chardonnay 2011
King Estate, Pinot Noir 2011
Famille Perrin, Cotes du Rhone Villages 2010
Columbia Crest, Les Chevaux Red 2010
14 Hands, Hot to Trot White Blend
Familia Bianchi, Malbec 2009
Terrapin Cellars, Pinot Gris 2011
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2009
Campo Viejo, Rioja, Termpranillo 2010
Ravenswood, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2010
Waterbrook, Reserve Merlot 2009
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills, Pinot Grigio 2011
Tarantas, Rose
Chateau Lajarre, Bordeaux 2009
La Vielle Ferme, Rose 2011
Benvolio, Pinot Grigio 2011
Nobilo Icon, Pinot Noir 2009
Lello, Douro Tinto 2009
Quinson Fils, Cotes de Provence Rose 2011
Anindor, Pinot Gris 2010
Buenas Ondas, Syrah Rose 2010
Les Fiefs d'Anglars, Malbec 2009
14 Hands, Pinot Gris 2011
Conundrum 2012
Condes de Albarei, Albariño 2011
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2007
Penelope Sanchez, Garnacha Syrah 2010
Canoe Ridge, Merlot 2007
Atalaya do Mar, Godello 2010
Vega Montan, Mencia
Benvolio, Pinot Grigio
Nobilo Icon, Pinot Noir, Marlborough 2009
Portuga, Rose 2011
Revelation, Chardonnay, Pays d'Oc 2010
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 2005
Monte Alto, Tinto Reserva 2005
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Cabernet, Indian Wells 2009
Espiral, Vinho Rose
Vin-Koru, Pinot Gris 2011
14 Hands, Hot to Trot Red 2009
Rodney Strong, Cabernet, Sonoma 2009
Abacela, Vintner's Blend #11
Portuga, White 2010
La Bourgeoisie, Red 2009
Januik, Red 2009
Three Rivers, River's Red 2008
Kirkland, Alexander Valley Merlot 2008
Muga, Rioja Rose 2010
Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2009
Mauro Molino, Barbera d'Alba 2009
Garda Chiaretto Rose
Columbia Crest, Two Vines Vineyard 10 White
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Pinot Gris, Columbia Valley 2009
L'Hortus, Rose de Saignee 2010
Maculan, Pino & Toi 2008
McKinley Springs, Bombing Range Red 2008
Trader Joe's Pinot Gris 2009
Montes Alpha, Cabernet 2007
Gran Sasso, Sangiovese, Terre di Chieti 2009
Garda, Classico Chiaretto Rose
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 1999
Picos del Montgo, Tempranillo 2008
Chateau de Montmirail, Vacqueyras 2008
La Granja 360, Syrah 2009
Montgras, Carmenere Reserva 2009
Lange, Pinot Gris 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Cabernet 2008
Kirkland, Pinot Grigio 2010
Trader Joe's Coastal Syrah 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Merlot 2008
Trader Joe's Coastal Chardonnay 2009
Vieux Papes Red
Domaine de l'Aujardiere, Chardonnay 2009
Santa Rita, Cabernet, Medalla Real 2007
Penfold's, Koonunga Hill Shiraz Cabernet 2008
Guild, Red, Lot #02 2008
Dievole, Dievolino Sangiovese 2008
Laforet, Burgogne Chardonnay 2009
Columbia Winery, Merlot 2007
Bonterra, Cabernet 2008
Elk Cove, Pinot Gris 2009
Maquis Lien 2006
Scott Paul, Pinot Noir, Le Paulee 2007
The Occasional Book
Neil Young - Waging Heavy Peace
Mark Bego - Aretha Franklin, the Queen of Soul (2012 ed.)
Jenny Lawson - Let's Pretend This Never Happened
J.D. Salinger - Franny and Zooey
Charles Dickens - A Christmas Carol
Timothy Egan - The Big Burn
Deborah Eisenberg - Transactions in a Foreign Currency
Kurt Vonnegut Jr. - Slaughterhouse Five
Kathryn Lance - Pandora's Genes
Cheryl Strayed - Wild
Fyodor Dostoyevsky - The Brothers Karamazov
Jack London - The House of Pride, and Other Tales of Hawaii
Jack Walker - The Extraordinary Rendition of Vincent Dellamaria
Colum McCann - Let the Great World Spin
Niccolò Machiavelli - The Prince
Harper Lee - To Kill a Mockingbird
Emma McLaughlin & Nicola Kraus - The Nanny Diaries
Brian Selznick - The Invention of Hugo Cabret
Sharon Creech - Walk Two Moons
Keith Richards - Life
F. Sionil Jose - Dusk
Natalie Babbitt - Tuck Everlasting
Justin Halpern - S#*t My Dad Says
Mark Herrmann - The Curmudgeon's Guide to Practicing Law
Barry Glassner - The Gospel of Food
Phil Stanford - The Peyton-Allan Files
Jesse Katz - The Opposite Field
Evelyn Waugh - Brideshead Revisited
J.K. Rowling - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
David Sedaris - Holidays on Ice
Donald Miller - A Million Miles in a Thousand Years
Mitch Albom - Have a Little Faith
C.S. Lewis - The Magician's Nephew
F. Scott Fitzgerald - The Great Gatsby
William Shakespeare - A Midsummer Night's Dream
Ivan Doig - Bucking the Sun
Penda Diakité - I Lost My Tooth in Africa
Grace Lin - The Year of the Rat
Oscar Hijuelos - Mr. Ives' Christmas
Madeline L'Engle - A Wrinkle in Time
Steven Hart - The Last Three Miles
David Sedaris - Me Talk Pretty One Day
Karen Armstrong - The Spiral Staircase
Charles Larson - The Portland Murders
Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
Steven D. Stark - Meet the Beatles
Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
Rick Moody - Garden State
Jonathan Schwartz - All in Good Time
David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim
Anthony Holden - Big Deal
Robert J. Spitzer - The Spirit of Leadership
James McManus - Positively Fifth Street
Jeff Noon - Vurt
Road Work
Miles run year to date: 21
At this date last year: 52
Total run in 2012: 129
In 2011: 113
In 2010: 125
In 2009: 67
In 2008: 28
In 2007: 113
In 2006: 100
In 2005: 149
In 2004: 204
In 2003: 269
Comments (32)
Relax. Merkley will win easily. Don't sweat it.
Posted by Geek Squad | November 5, 2008 1:01 PM
Maybe this could be an area for Sizemore to address. He could try and pass an initiative to "incentivize" elections officials to get their act together. If they fail to complete the count by midnight, they lose 50% of their budget for the next 2 years.
Posted by mp97303 | November 5, 2008 1:02 PM
Just as soon as election days are made holidays, and polling stations are set up so that nobody has to wait more than, oh, 15 minutes to vote, then I'll withdraw my support for vote by mail.
Posted by joel dan walls | November 5, 2008 1:02 PM
The fact that the vote-by-mail system is wonderful, and the fact that it takes a long time to process, are not contradictory.
They have to check each signature, after all.
And I still have confidence that the remaining votes from Multnomah and Lane will push Merkley well over the top.
Posted by Lev | November 5, 2008 1:03 PM
I'm still projecting him to win, but not by a lot.
Posted by Jack Bog | November 5, 2008 1:14 PM
There are a number of House/Senate races still outstanding, and the lion's share of them are not in vote-by-mail states so let's not get too snarky, eh?
I've also heard that the Multnomah Elections office was flooded last night.
Posted by Gene | November 5, 2008 1:16 PM
It was actually flooded on Monday -- in the basement. The ballot counting does not get done down there.
I can never remember it taking it this long to count ballots in Oregon. Maybe it's just the 84 percent turnout.
Posted by Jack Bog | November 5, 2008 1:23 PM
The vote-by-mail system isn't perfect ... what is? But it's better than what happens elsewhere.
No vote-flipping on electronic vote screens, for instance.
I mourned the loss of polling station voting in Oregon too until hackable electronic voting machines became all the rage.
No, it's not great to have to wait ... but it's better than most. Certainly better than it could of been.
It's the huge turnout. Yes.
Posted by Samuel John Klein | November 5, 2008 1:48 PM
Merkley is narrowing the gap; at 1:29 pm, the SOS says:
Smith 655,944
Merkley 647,190
Posted by Charlie | November 5, 2008 1:51 PM
Merkley is catching up.
At 2:33 pm, the SOS says:
Smith 660,264
Merkley 655,312
The gap shrank from 8754 votes to 4952 in the last hour.
Posted by JerryB | November 5, 2008 2:55 PM
Here's a question for Merkley and the Democrats that paid out *$10 million* to get him elected to Smith's position: Wouldn't that much money have been better spent on say, helping people without health care? Isn't THAT one of the issues the Democrats are so concerned with? HOW MANY PEOPLE COULD BE HELPED WITH $10 million????!!!!
Posted by Miss Linda | November 5, 2008 3:06 PM
The Secretary of State unofficial results page is maddening. It refers to the ballots counted so far as the "ballots cast" so that the "ballots cast" number changes each hour or two. The county statistics age maintains the misrepresentation.
Hey BillB, "ballots cast" is not the same thing as ballots counted. It would be much more meaningful to have a real, fixed "ballots cast" number and the current "ballots counted" number, both overall and on the county statistics page.
Posted by PdxMark | November 5, 2008 3:08 PM
At 3:05 pm, Multnomah County had counted 61% of the total ballots cast with approximately 138,911 left to be counted. If Smith (23%) and Merkeley (75%) continue at the same individual rates, then Merkeley will get another 103,000 with Smith adding 31,000.
The SOS has Smith ahead statewide by 5,000 but when you consider the additional still to come from Multnomah County alone, Merkeley wins by 67,000. However, you need to do the same calculations for Lane and the other counties which still have a lot to count.
If you do the same calculations for Measure 64, it looks like it will fail.
Posted by John K | November 5, 2008 3:30 PM
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/individual/#mapSOR
The Merkinator is now officially up by about 1200, as of 4pm PST, and with plenty more of Multnomah County coming in.
Posted by ambrown | November 5, 2008 4:01 PM
via CNN online
Merkley
645,711 47%
Smith(Incumbent)
644,554 47%
Posted by dan | November 5, 2008 4:07 PM
via cnn online
Merkley 652,726 47%
Smith (Incumbent) 650,262 47%
Merkley's gained 1300 votes since dan posted at 4:07 pm
Posted by cw moss | November 5, 2008 4:23 PM
Smith pulling ahead.
At 3:36 pm, the SOS says:
Smith 676,642
Merkley 641,864
Smith has a 34,778 vote lead!
Approximately 131,769 left to be counted in Multnomah County.
Multnomah County counted 7142 ballots in the last hour or so.
Posted by JerryB | November 5, 2008 4:28 PM
These numbers aren't making much sense. Merkley is going backwards. CNN must not be using the SoS site, but the big jump in Smiths numbers from the Sos site seems disproportionate.
Posted by PdxMark | November 5, 2008 4:34 PM
cnn.com
Oregon »
7:34 p.m. EST, Nov 5 '08
Merkley
652,726
47%
Smith
(Incumbent)
650,262
47%
76% of precincts reporting
Posted by Kevin | November 5, 2008 4:36 PM
Definitely odd. A big change refreshing the SOS web site though:
Smith 686,681
Merkley 685,408
Posted by JerryB | November 5, 2008 4:45 PM
PDXMark: voting is like a baseball pitch: Those ballots aren't cast until they're counted.
Posted by Allan L. | November 5, 2008 5:06 PM
As of 5:00, there are another 125,000 ballots to count in Multnomah County, where Merkley leads Smith 151,036 to 65,848.
The SOS has Smith up 686,681 to 685,408 statewide. Krazy close!
Anybody else find it idiotic that you click on the drop-down on the SOS website and it calls up nothing. I see the orange bar for unofficial results, but frustrating that the other ain't working...
Posted by Lex De Novo | November 5, 2008 5:20 PM
Looks like Merkley will win. He has now pulled ahead, as of 5:27, according to OregonLive: 691,501 to 691,119. The trend is obviously in his favor.
Posted by Charlie | November 5, 2008 5:43 PM
mp97303, I don't see why it's so horrible we have to wait a day or two to find out who won. I'd rather they count the ballots correctly and verify the signatures properly than hastily.
Posted by Rulial | November 5, 2008 5:56 PM
The Oregonian has called it for Merkley.
Posted by Bob | November 5, 2008 6:18 PM
Congrats to Bill Bradbury, err, Merkley.
Posted by Steve | November 5, 2008 6:41 PM
don't see why it's so horrible we have to wait a day or two
Vote tampering takes time; vote counting should be quicker.
Posted by Allan L. | November 5, 2008 7:20 PM
@Miss Linda:
With current healthcare costs? Errr....I think that's three annual physicals and a store-brand aspirin.
Posted by emiller | November 5, 2008 7:43 PM
too bad, The guy is a zero in my opinion.
Posted by realdon | November 5, 2008 11:34 PM
I fail to get why some folks fail to get that citing information that was said or shown on TV is not only NOT news, but worse, it is false information.
Suppose you knew someone who lied all the time. Prex Chimp, let's say. Or a gossip-monger at the workplace. And suppose that person came to you and told you some information. And you knew he lied all the time. Then are you going to run out and repeat it to all your friends? try to impress them that you are 'in the know'?
Okay, then, same thing: by the time information appears on TV, it not only is NOT news, but furthermore it has been falsified ... why? to protect the jobs and reputation of the persons on TV since working in commercial addiction-TV is the same job and reputation as a drug pusher.
"... stay tuned ... don't touch that dial ... don't you dare go away ... we'll be right back with more hits of amygdala-stimulating sexuality and violence and conflict scenes, right after these commercials containing amygdala-stimulating sexual sales-pitches so you can attract unlimited uninhibited sexual partners by buying these products ..."
Posted by Tenskwatawa | November 6, 2008 8:34 AM
Who ya' gonna call? Here's a 1-step program out of addiction: Ad Busters (dot ORG).
Posted by Tenskwatawa | November 6, 2008 8:39 AM
@Ms Linda:
I donno.
How many people could have been helped with the 568 billion we've spent on the Iraq War so far?
Fair question.
And we'll donate our cash to who we want, thank you.
No go back and watch FOX.
Posted by Samuel John Klein | November 6, 2008 2:10 PM