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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on September 3, 2008 12:45 AM. The previous post in this blog was James Jahar Perez: $350,000. The next post in this blog is Point of no return. Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.



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Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Odds and ends

Here's a place where, apparently, one can wager on whether Sarah Palin will withdraw from the GOP vice presidential nomination between now and the election. At this hour, the gamblers participating in the pool set the chances of her withdrawal at 9.5 percent.

Elsewhere, some reflections on whether, and how, it could happen.

Of course, for Palin to go away, McCain would have to have a replacement lined up. Who would be willing to take the second spot on the ticket at this point?

Comments (27)

Does the name Joe Lieberman Sound like a possibility if she does resign. Switch hitter Joe, would sell his mother if he thought it would get him a big time slot in the administration, any administration.

Mike Huckabee comes to mind as someone he should have picked if he wanted a pro-lifer so badly and I'm sure he'd be all over it if offered. I'm not going to speculate too deeply who would replace her because it's not going to happen unless something really, really huge comes up about her that we don't know about yet. There is a very vocal and influential base within the Republican party that is fully willing to put their blinders on to Mrs. Palin's numerous faults because she is absolutely 100% anti-abortion and that's all they need to know. Many of them are drawn to their romanticized image of her as a gun toting, moose eating, child raising Christian crusader who "was tough enough to stand up to the corrupt Good 'ol Boys" that they are willing to ignore the fact that she is "uniquely and supremely unqualified" for the office she seeks.

They write off all of us educated progressive types as a bunch of elitist sexist snobs who are quick to denigrate and belittle her numerous non-traditional qualifications such as being a mother of five and Governor of a state that is close to Russia. (Also don't forget that she is "smart and a quick learner" and has experience as "Commander in Chief of the Alaska National Guard".)

Every time they open their mouths to explain her qualifications to be one heart beat away from the presidency they look stupid. The more the media talks about her 17 year old kid's pregnancy, the less time they will focus on her lack of qualifications and good judgment. It's like she's getting a free pass on the heavy duty discussion about her qualifications and ethics issues because they are so focused on the juicy dirty stuff. In the long haul the teen pregnancy doesn't matter very much or might turn her into a sympathetic character in the long run. Many of the Republican's are all buying into this and are going on and on about how all of this drama with the daughter, etc. just shows that "she's a real person".

My hope is that the undecided voters will perceive her as religious extremist with numerous skeletons in her closet who is unqualified to become Vice President of the United States of America.

Is Tom Eagleton still available?

A sane whisper among the ravings of the fatuous.

She won't resign and McCain doesn't like to change his mind. The fact she's making the Left all Michael Moorish is just gravy for the Right. They love her, pregant teen daughter and all.

There's still stuff to come out or be covered up, and a large team of handlers up in AK working on that, so we'll see. Best case, she is nominated, campaigns and then crumbles, so that she has to be replaced closer to the election.

Allen you are right, does October surprise sound familiar

RE: October Surprise

Yes, there will be more info that comes out, but be careful what you wish for. Perhaps there will be revelations about the Obama-Biden side of the campaign.

If the media swarm were as interested, just think what will turn up from Obama's Chicago days.

Barring an earth-shattering revelation of some kind, Palin is going to remain on the ticket. I would add that she has a very good chance of becoming the vice president!

I'm worried more about this kind of "October Surprise":

Man, the unhinged left is in full-force over Palin. Amazing the hypocrisy found amongst the Dems. I guess an independent, hard-working mother is to be celebrated when she's a leftist, but taboo when she's a conservative.

Obama gets his political career started by an admitted terrorist and his million dollar house from a convicted felon, but VP nominee Palin is the one being ostracized.

Wow. Just wow.

***Amazing the hypocrisy found amongst the Dems. I guess an independent, hard-working mother is to be celebrated when she's a leftist, but taboo when she's a conservative.***

The issue would be the same if a Democratic soccer mom were being nominated as Vice President whose greatest political accomplishment was to once get 114,697.

She effectively has the same political base and experience as the mayor of Washington DC, including the absence of any meaningful normal tax base and a huge per-capita Federal subsidy. You can add-in that her fiscal experience as Alaska governor makes her better suited to preside over OPEC-member Qatar than anything resembling an urbanized, industrial USA.

oops... 114,697 VOTES.

So we're supposed to believe that the media (and all of us?) should leave the children alone -- leave them out of it, right?

So why are the Palins and the McCains parading around their children (and their unwed fathers of the yet to be born children) -- with front and center photo ops, and public public public displays plus statements about who is going to Iraq etc.

What happened to "leave them out of it?" They're trying to get every inch of mileage out of the kids, and the Republicans know it sells so they're going to milk it for all it's worth. Forget about ignoring, they're HIGHLIGHTING the kids. So why are they "offended" when others have things to say (or ask) about the kids?


You can't bitch about the MSM putting all their attention on the "scandals" and her personal life and ignoring the substance when a large segment of the Democrat support is in fact hammering on the same scandals. Like you, I'd welcome an examination of her credentials - let her go through the same scrutiny on POLICY and JUDGMENT issues that McCain, Obama, and Biden have been through, then make up your mind whether she is fit or unfit.

If you think those in the middle will write her off because of these personal attacks, credible or not, you discount the fact that Americans sometimes have this knack for supporting the little guy or the underdog. Hell, that is at least part of the appeal of Obama (versus the big bad Clinton machine).

Here si the new scenario:

Reporter: WHat is the status of the Troopergate investigation in Alaske, why won't Gov Pallin testify as reuired by law?

McCain Campaign: How dare you attack the governor's teenage daughter.

Reporter: Please explain the fact that the Governor repeatedly supported earmarks which John McCain opposed and has made a cnetral issue of his campaign?

McCain Camppaign: Will you stop these sexist attacks on the governor. And how dare you attack her teenage daughter.

Reporter: Please explain how the governor's experience in a state where they have no industrial economy, no sales, income or property taxes and fund everything through Oil revenue is qualified to become president?

McCain Campaign: Again with the sexist attacks, we will not stand here and let you belittle women in America!

and so on and so on.

I agree that there is potential for a sympathy backlash reaction if the MSM continues to pick on her for poor decision making by her daughter. I have my own personal opinion about the situation, but that doesn't mean it's relevant to whether she is fit to be V.P. Obama came out very early and said the exact same thing do I don't see how the Democrats are at fault for this.

Forget about her daughter. Let's talk about poor decisionmaking by her!

The GOP convention last night was high comedy. First they trotted out Fred Thompson, who so electrified the nation during the primary campaign that he garnered -- what was it? 2 or 3 percent of the vote? And his main contribution last night was to lambaste the Dems for fiscal irresponsibility. It doesn't get any funnier than that -- coming from the party that piled up twice as much debt during the Reagan/Bush/Bush years than under every other president combined. They made earmarks into a high art during the first 6 years of Bush II, when they were in control of Congress. Then when the Dems took control in 2006, the GOP professed to be shocked -- shocked! -- that earmark spending had gotten out of control. You gotta love it.

Then they brought out Lieberman, who extolled McCain primarily for his independence, which Joe illustrated by pointing to two main topics: campaign finance reform and immigration -- and on both issues the GOP base despises McCain for his positions!

If you saw all this in a Hollywood movie, you would dismiss it as wholly unbelievable. The GOP seems to live in an alternate universe.

I still can't believe that hockey boy/prospective papa Levi is flying to the convention. Bad judgment aside, didn't the school year just begin? What are his parents thinking?

Then again, judging by how the Palins pulled Track and Bristol out of school for months at a time, perhaps Alaskans are a bit more laisse faire in their devotion to secondary education.

I think Chris Matthews on MSNBC hit the right note for the GOP strategy - McCain and Palin are the "new GOP" made up of mavericks and reformers ... they are just as "outside" and against the Bush policies as Obama and the Democrats. "We're like you, tired of this administration and politics as usual." The danger to the Left is that if Obama doesn't tamp down on the non-issue criticisms by his surrogates, he begins to sound like the party machine he just defeated and suddenly the new brand-McCain sounds appealing.

It'll be a hell of a success, with no small contribution from the other side, * IF * they can pull that off in this election.

So, the Republicans at the national level have become just like the Oregon Republicans - hostage to a small group that is totally wedded to core, extreme fundamentalist social beliefs, and in Oregon, unable to find/nominate any moderate candidates who could win a state-wide office. If they want to play that game at the national level, fine with me.

Just listened to Romney's very angry, scary speech. This is a job application. He and Huckabee are no dummies. They know there could be an opening soon...

Watching her speak right now, she's not leaving.

Hey DE, let me clue you in ... even a moderate Republican couldn't win around here ("here" = west of the Cascades). Hell, they don't even bother nominating any candidates in my district.


Negative attack ads work, remember? 4 years ago? 8 years ago? I'm sure McCain remembers.

Can we also place a bet on the likelihood that an Orange Alert will be announced on November 1?


As a lawyer/blogger, I get
to be a member of:

In Vino Veritas

Lange, Pinot Gris 2015
Kiona, Lemberger 2014
Willamette Valley, Pinot Gris 2015
Aix, Rosé de Provence 2016
Marchigüe, Cabernet 2013
Inazío Irruzola, Getariako Txakolina Rosé 2015
Maso Canali, Pinot Grigio 2015
Campo Viejo, Rioja Reserva 2011
Kirkland, Côtes de Provence Rosé 2016
Cantele, Salice Salentino Reserva 2013
Whispering Angel, Côtes de Provence Rosé 2013
Avissi, Prosecco
Cleto Charli, Lambrusco di Sorbara Secco, Vecchia Modena
Pique Poul, Rosé 2016
Edmunds St. John, Bone-Jolly Rosé 2016
Stoller, Pinot Noir Rosé 2016
Chehalem, Inox Chardonnay 2015
The Four Graces, Pinot Gris 2015
Gascón, Colosal Red 2013
Cardwell Hill, Pinot Gris 2015
L'Ecole No. 41, Merlot 2013
Della Terra, Anonymus
Willamette Valley, Dijon Clone Chardonnay 2013
Wraith, Cabernet, Eidolon Estate 2012
Januik, Red 2015
Tomassi, Valpolicella, Rafaél, 2014
Sharecropper's Pinot Noir 2013
Helix, Pomatia Red Blend 2013
La Espera, Cabernet 2011
Campo Viejo, Rioja Reserva 2011
Villa Antinori, Toscana 2013
Locations, Spanish Red Wine
Locations, Argentinian Red Wine
La Antigua Clásico, Rioja 2011
Shatter, Grenache, Maury 2012
Argyle, Vintage Brut 2011
Abacela, Vintner's Blend #16 Abacela, Fiesta Tempranillo 2014
Benton Hill, Pinot Gris 2015
Primarius, Pinot Gris 2015
Januik, Merlot 2013
Napa Cellars, Cabernet 2013
J. Bookwalter, Protagonist 2012
LAN, Rioja Edicion Limitada 2011
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 2009
Denada Cellars, Cabernet, Maipo Valley 2014
Marchigüe, Cabernet, Colchagua Valley 2013
Oberon, Cabernet 2014
Hedges, Red Mountain 2012
Balboa, Rose of Grenache 2015
Ontañón, Rioja Reserva 2015
Three Horse Ranch, Pinot Gris 2014
Archery Summit, Vireton Pinot Gris 2014
Nelms Road, Merlot 2013
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Pinot Gris 2014
Conn Creek, Cabernet, Napa 2012
Conn Creek, Cabernet, Napa 2013
Villa Maria, Sauvignon Blanc 2015
G3, Cabernet 2013
Chateau Smith, Cabernet, Washington State 2014
Abacela, Vintner's Blend #16
Willamette Valley, Rose of Pinot Noir, Whole Clusters 2015
Albero, Bobal Rose 2015
Ca' del Baio Barbaresco Valgrande 2012
Goodfellow, Reserve Pinot Gris, Clover 2014
Lugana, San Benedetto 2014
Wente, Cabernet, Charles Wetmore 2011
La Espera, Cabernet 2011
King Estate, Pinot Gris 2015
Adelsheim, Pinot Gris 2015
Trader Joe's, Pinot Gris, Willamette Valley 2015
La Vite Lucente, Toscana Red 2013
St. Francis, Cabernet, Sonoma 2013
Kendall-Jackson, Pinot Noir, California 2013
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Napa Valley 2013
Erath, Pinot Noir, Estate Selection 2012
Abbot's Table, Columbia Valley 2014
Intrinsic, Cabernet 2014
Oyster Bay, Pinot Noir 2010
Occhipinti, SP68 Bianco 2014
Layer Cake, Shiraz 2013
Desert Wind, Ruah 2011
WillaKenzie, Pinot Gris 2014
Abacela, Fiesta Tempranillo 2013
Des Amis, Rose 2014
Dunham, Trautina 2012
RoxyAnn, Claret 2012
Del Ri, Claret 2012
Stoppa, Emilia, Red 2004
Primarius, Pinot Noir 2013
Domaines Bunan, Bandol Rose 2015
Albero, Bobal Rose 2015
Deer Creek, Pinot Gris 2015
Beaulieu, Rutherford Cabernet 2013
Archery Summit, Vireton Pinot Gris 2014
King Estate, Pinot Gris, Backbone 2014
Oberon, Napa Cabernet 2013
Apaltagua, Envero Carmenere Gran Reserva 2013
Chateau des Arnauds, Cuvee des Capucins 2012
Nine Hats, Red 2013
Benziger, Cabernet, Sonoma 2012
Roxy Ann, Claret 2012
Januik, Merlot 2012
Conundrum, White 2013
St. Francis, Sonoma Cabernet 2012

The Occasional Book

Marc Maron - Waiting for the Punch
Phil Stanford - Rose City Vice
Kenneth R. Feinberg - What is Life Worth?
Kent Haruf - Our Souls at Night
Peter Carey - True History of the Kelly Gang
Suzanne Collins - The Hunger Games
Amy Stewart - Girl Waits With Gun
Philip Roth - The Plot Against America
Norm Macdonald - Based on a True Story
Christopher Buckley - Boomsday
Ryan Holiday - The Obstacle is the Way
Ruth Sepetys - Between Shades of Gray
Richard Adams - Watership Down
Claire Vaye Watkins - Gold Fame Citrus
Markus Zusak - I am the Messenger
Anthony Doerr - All the Light We Cannot See
James Joyce - Dubliners
Cheryl Strayed - Torch
William Golding - Lord of the Flies
Saul Bellow - Mister Sammler's Planet
Phil Stanford - White House Call Girl
John Kaplan & Jon R. Waltz - The Trial of Jack Ruby
Kent Haruf - Eventide
David Halberstam - Summer of '49
Norman Mailer - The Naked and the Dead
Maria Dermoȗt - The Ten Thousand Things
William Faulkner - As I Lay Dying
Markus Zusak - The Book Thief
Christopher Buckley - Thank You for Smoking
William Shakespeare - Othello
Joseph Conrad - Heart of Darkness
Bill Bryson - A Short History of Nearly Everything
Cheryl Strayed - Tiny Beautiful Things
Sara Varon - Bake Sale
Stephen King - 11/22/63
Paul Goldstein - Errors and Omissions
Mark Twain - A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur's Court
Steve Martin - Born Standing Up: A Comic's Life
Beverly Cleary - A Girl from Yamhill, a Memoir
Kent Haruf - Plainsong
Hope Larson - A Wrinkle in Time, the Graphic Novel
Rudyard Kipling - Kim
Peter Ames Carlin - Bruce
Fran Cannon Slayton - When the Whistle Blows
Neil Young - Waging Heavy Peace
Mark Bego - Aretha Franklin, the Queen of Soul (2012 ed.)
Jenny Lawson - Let's Pretend This Never Happened
J.D. Salinger - Franny and Zooey
Charles Dickens - A Christmas Carol
Timothy Egan - The Big Burn
Deborah Eisenberg - Transactions in a Foreign Currency
Kurt Vonnegut Jr. - Slaughterhouse Five
Kathryn Lance - Pandora's Genes
Cheryl Strayed - Wild
Fyodor Dostoyevsky - The Brothers Karamazov
Jack London - The House of Pride, and Other Tales of Hawaii
Jack Walker - The Extraordinary Rendition of Vincent Dellamaria
Colum McCann - Let the Great World Spin
Niccolò Machiavelli - The Prince
Harper Lee - To Kill a Mockingbird
Emma McLaughlin & Nicola Kraus - The Nanny Diaries
Brian Selznick - The Invention of Hugo Cabret
Sharon Creech - Walk Two Moons
Keith Richards - Life
F. Sionil Jose - Dusk
Natalie Babbitt - Tuck Everlasting
Justin Halpern - S#*t My Dad Says
Mark Herrmann - The Curmudgeon's Guide to Practicing Law
Barry Glassner - The Gospel of Food
Phil Stanford - The Peyton-Allan Files
Jesse Katz - The Opposite Field
Evelyn Waugh - Brideshead Revisited
J.K. Rowling - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
David Sedaris - Holidays on Ice
Donald Miller - A Million Miles in a Thousand Years
Mitch Albom - Have a Little Faith
C.S. Lewis - The Magician's Nephew
F. Scott Fitzgerald - The Great Gatsby
William Shakespeare - A Midsummer Night's Dream
Ivan Doig - Bucking the Sun
Penda Diakité - I Lost My Tooth in Africa
Grace Lin - The Year of the Rat
Oscar Hijuelos - Mr. Ives' Christmas
Madeline L'Engle - A Wrinkle in Time
Steven Hart - The Last Three Miles
David Sedaris - Me Talk Pretty One Day
Karen Armstrong - The Spiral Staircase
Charles Larson - The Portland Murders
Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
Steven D. Stark - Meet the Beatles
Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
Rick Moody - Garden State
Jonathan Schwartz - All in Good Time
David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim
Anthony Holden - Big Deal
Robert J. Spitzer - The Spirit of Leadership
James McManus - Positively Fifth Street
Jeff Noon - Vurt

Road Work

Miles run year to date: 5
At this date last year: 3
Total run in 2017: 113
In 2016: 155
In 2015: 271
In 2014: 401
In 2013: 257
In 2012: 129
In 2011: 113
In 2010: 125
In 2009: 67
In 2008: 28
In 2007: 113
In 2006: 100
In 2005: 149
In 2004: 204
In 2003: 269

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