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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on August 22, 2007 11:26 PM. The previous post in this blog was You know you got it when you're going insane. The next post in this blog is Barrels of blood either way. Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

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Wednesday, August 22, 2007

If you're going to be a fool, now's the time

Those of you who, like me, pay the stupidity tax from time to time, take note: Saturday's Powerball jackpot will be $300 million. The cash option should pay about half that, right? Which would be $150 million.

The odds of winning the big prize are 146,107,962 to 1. And so for once, they're paying decent odds, if you're the only one with the magic numbers come this time Saturday night.

If you do win, remember that you read about it here. I'll cover any gift tax that you owe on what you flip my way.

Posted at 11:26 PM | Bookmark and Share

Comments (12)

Whats the tax for a $150 million dollar payout? Somewhere in the 50% range?

According to Powerball.com, the cash option is $140.3 million.

It occurred to me recently that a lot of endowment-funded organizations follow a strategy of only spending the income that spins off the endowment - and never touching the principal.

If I remember right (and I might not), the annual income is usually pretty consistently around 5% of the total value of the endowment... into perpetuity.

So, if you got $140 million cash, paid $70 million in taxes, and then invested the remainder like an endowment... you'd then get $3.5 million a year in income - forever. That's $291,000 a month.

Right? Where's my math off?

It's not.

I'm in.

Whats the tax for a $150 million dollar payout?

Feds, roughly 35%. Oregon, roughly another 9%. There are some asterisks, but it doesn't reach 50% -- more like 45%.

Of course, if you make money buying and selling stocks, it's 15%...

Kari, and if you spent the $3.5 million every years (maybe more like $2 million after taxes), there'd still be $70 million in the bank at all times.

Mega-Millions up here in The Couv is $200+ million right now too. I have tickets for both.

My wife (who has a degree in mathematics) likes to point out that, statistically speaking, your chances of winning are effectively equal whether you buy a ticket or not. ;-)

I heard the PDC is "investing" in Powerball as a "linchpin".
They are purchasing some $5 million tickets on behalf of their favorite public-private developer partners in hopes of genrating the $300 million return for their friends.
After the draw Saturday they intend on quietly claiming success as the $5 million will have been spent.

As with other linchpins winning won't be neccessary once the spending has occured.
They need only establish that more spending will follow and pretend it's the same as winning.

My wife (who has a degree in mathematics) likes to point out that, statistically speaking, your chances of winning are effectively equal whether you buy a ticket or not. ;-)

Ask her how I can get myself on the list of people who won it without buying a ticket.

Double your money instantly!

Fold it and put it back in your pocket.

The words 'investment' and 'lottery' should never be used in the same sentence.

The 6/49 lottery was brought to France by Cassanova when he escaped confinement in the Italian city states. The lottery in France grew to proportions that almost equaled the Tulip Mania in Holland. Casanova ofcourse got rich several times via the lottery, by selling tickets not by winning it.

The NetPresentValue of that stream of income can be a tidy sum but most lottery winners let the money trickle away in lifestyle changes that are poorly planned.

A lottery is indeed a tax on the mathematically feebleminded. Ofcourse, one may wonder if that is not a class of persons who should be taxed. We have "sin taxes" levied on alcohol and tobaco, why not a 'stupidity tax' levied on those foolish enough to buy lottery tickets.

As to the mathematically similar chances for non-ticket purchase, that is true. Its only the administrative classification of 'ticket purchaser' that is significant. Once that hurdle has been reached, the chances are about the same as before. "You can't win if you don't play the game; but if you play the game, your chances of winning are about the same as before you paid your game-entry fee".

A PassLine bet at 100x odds offers a house edge of 0.09 percent against the player. Even a blackjack game offers about a 2 percent house edge. Roulette a 5.25 percent house edge. That is known as gambling. A lottery is not gambling, it is a voluntary gift to the state by those who are deluded.

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In Vino Veritas

Dom Martinho, Tinto 2005
Chateau St. Jean, Cabernet, California 2007
Kirkland, Napa Cabernet 2007
Revelry, The Reveler, 2007
Joseph Drouhin, Chablis 2006
Altos Las Hormigas, Mendoza Malbec 2008
Alodio, Ribeira Sacra Mencia 2007
Charles Smith, Kung Fu Girl Riesling 2008
Kiona, Lemberger 2006
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Columbia Valley Merlot 2005
Paranga, Kir-Yianni 2005
L. Guigal, Cotes du Rhone Rose 2007
Gloria Ferrer, Sonoma Brut
Kirkland, Napa Valley Meritage 2006
Abacela, Tempranillo 2006
Woodward Canyon, Columbia Valley Red
Santa Margherita, Pinot Grigio 2007
Mas Donis Barrica, Celler de Capcanes Red, 2005
Three Rivers, Merlot 2006
Raptor Ridge, Pinot Gris 2008
Lezaun, Rosado, Navarra
Lezaun, Red, Navarra
Hedges, Three Vineyards, Red Mountain 2005
Raptor Ridge, Pinot Gris 2008
Vega Sindoa, Cabernet-Tempranillo 2006
Inama, Soave Classico 2007
Alois Lageder, Lagrein Rosato 2008
Broglia, Gavi 2007
Marqués de Cáceres, Rioja Rose 2008
Spaltagna, Riserva Pinot Noir 2008
Portuga, Rose 2008
Warre's Warrior Port
Lange, Pinot Noir 2007
Chateau Guiraud, Le G, 2007
Falset, Garnacha Rose, Montsant 2006
Castello di Bossi, Chianti Classico 2004
Domaine Chandon, Pinot Noir, La Riviere Sonoma 2006
Brazin, Old Vine Zinfandel, Lodi 2006
B.R. Cohn, Silver Label Cabernet 2006
Casillero del Diablo, Cabernet 2007
Gentil Hugel, Alsace 2006
Mesoneros de Castilla, Ribero del Duero, Rosado 2008
Cor, Momentum 2007
Santa Margherita, Pinot Grigio 2006
Rubico, Lacrima di Morro d'Alba 2007
Gilstrap Brothers, Reserve Merlot 2003
Conundrum 2007
Chandler Reach, 36 Red
Santa Rita, Reserve Cabernet 2005
Marietta, Old Vine Red Lot 47
L'Ecole No. 41, Recess Red 2006
Dom Martinho, Red 2004
Beaulieu, Georges Latour 1994
Caymus, Cabernet 1995
Columbia Winery, Merlot 2005
Bergevin Lane, Columbia Valley Cabernet 2005
Savigny-les-Beaune, Les Lavieres 2003
David Hill, Reserve Merlot, Rogue Valley 2006
Educated Guess, Cabernet 2006
Maquis Lien, Red 2005
Charles Smith, Kung Fu Girl Riesling 2007
David Hill, Farmhouse White
Robert Mondavi Solaire, Cabernet 2005
Castello Monaci, Liante, Salice Salentino 2006
Ricardo Santos, Malbec 2006
Quinta da Espiga, Tinto 2006
Charles Smith, Holy Cow Merlot 2006
Charles Smith, Boom Boom Syrah 2006
Charles Smith, The Honorable Pinot Gris 2007
Santa Rita, Cabernet Reserva 2005
King Estate, Pinot Gris 2007
Gloria, Douro, Tinto 2002
Bogle, Petite Sirah Port, Clarksburg 2005
Cardwell Hill, Pinot Noir 2004
Silkwood, Red Duet Cabernet-Syrah 2004
Portuga, Vinho Branco 2006, 2007
Osborne, Solaz 2004
Santa Rita, Cabernet, Reserva 2005
Penfold's, Koonunga Hill, Shiraz Cabernet 2006
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Cabernet, Indian Wells 2004
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Merlot, Horse Heaven Hills 2004
Hannah Nicole, Red 2004
Penfold's, Koonunga Hill Shiraz Cabernet 2005
Protocolo, Red 2005
Woodbridge, Chardonnay 2006
Portuga, Vinho Branco 2006
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 1998
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 1996
Kirkland, Roogle Shiraz 2004
Garda, Classico Chiaretto
A to Z, Oregon Pinot Gris 2005
I Giusti & Zanza, Nemorino 2006
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Fife, Syrah, "Stanford" 2000
B.R. Cohn, Silver Label Cabernet 2005
Marques de Casa Concha, Cabernet 2005
Santi, Sortesele Pinot Grigio 2006
Al Muvedre, Tinto Joven 2006
Layer Cake, Shiraz 2006
Gritti, Ca' Andrea, Umbria red 2005
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Thomas Leithner, Zweigelt 2004
Cain Cuvee NV 3
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Merlot 2003
Meridian, Sauvignon Blanc 2005
Canoe Ridge, Merlot 2003
Paringa, Shiraz 2005

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