This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on January 17, 2013 1:39 PM.
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Portland police pension liability jumps $330 million in two years
Just as the national media focuses on the City of Portland's scandalously unfunded police and firefighter pension and disability "system," the latest official estimate of the unfunded pension liability to public safety officers has shown up on the city's website. The city's actuaries peg the unfunded liability at $2.88 billion as of last June 30. That's up from $2.55 billion on the same date in 2010. In other words, the city's unfunded liability grew by $330 million, or 12.96%, during that two-year period -- a compound growth rate of 6.28% a year.
The new report confirms, rather than uncovers, the crippling debt. Police and fire pensions keep moving in the wrong direction, and will continue to do so for at least another decade -- with virtually no money set aside to cover them. It's all coming out of future property taxes.
We've been using a 6.5% growth rate for the pension debt in our City of Portland debt clock (see left sidebar), and so we aren't too far off. But part of the difficulty in pegging that rate is that the actuaries are constantly changing the assumptions they use. Probably the most important factor in present-valuing future amounts is the discount rate, and the city actuaries just cut theirs from 4.0% to 3.5% a year. They also switched from using an "attained age normal" methodology to an "entry age normal" methodology; if anybody out there can explain that, please help us out in the comments.
In any event, no amount of lipstick can make this particular pig look good. It's irresponsible financial stewardship, in the extreme.
Comments (16)
So stop worrying about a bunch of bus drivers.
We are chump change compared to the cops.
And as an extra bonus, we don't shoot people.
When Leonard gave us that cock-n-bull story about his measure 3 or so years ago. Remember we only needed a prop tax increase for 30 years to pay for his pension.
This guy is going to be expensive long after he's gone. PWB is already sucking $40M a year more out rate payers more than they did 4 years ago.
I'm not sure I would divide $2,880,000,000 by 600,000 residents. Better to divide it by the number of property taxpayers, because it's coming out of their hides. At least until they introduce Portland's new "Public Safety Income Tax".
Praise, honor and a bronze statue on the Eastbank Esplanade go to Vera Katz, who I believe negotiated this pension problem. And Willy Week correctly pointed this out at the time.
Characteristics
Aggregate
Projected Benefit
Level Percentage for normal cost
Separate Past Service Benefit
The past service benefits for all participants, defined as in the Unit Credit method, are lumped and spread evenly over a fixed period of years. The current service cost is expressed as a percentage of payroll as in the aggregate method.
Entry Age Normal
Also called: Individual Level Cost with Supplemental Liability
Characteristics
Individual
Projected Benefit
Level Payment
Separate Past Service Benefit
The cost of the full benefit for each participant is first spread as a level amount each year, from year of hire to year of retirement. In the years from the start of the plan until the individual retires, this amount is called the normal cost. The cost from hire to the start of the plan is then reassigned to a fixed period of time, generally 10 to 30 years. This becomes the supplemental cost."
I think it will eventually become clear that the politicians that created this mess could've cared less whether or not these commitments could ever possibly be met, they simply got something that they wanted out of it at the time.
Mr. Grumpy:
It's breaking here, but Oregon for sure is not the only state of no accountability, in a nation of no accountability.
It's going to be real ugly in some places when the fit hits the shan.
What is going to happen when those who say 6B push back at paying the bill when it comes due? Not even the well managed states (Indiana, for instance) are 100% immune.
Jack, could you tell me how to stop my page from refreshing automatically every so many seconds? I am using Windows 8 and the latest internet explorer. I like the new Windows 8 operating system over my old XP OS, and especially the multitasking new quad pro intel processor. But for some reason haven't been able to find something to slow the refreshing on your page.
Wouldn't a better approach to have placed Portland fire and police into the PERS system, as this puts it out of the hands of the especially financially irresponsible Portland City Hall? At least the PERS system is under some significant review for change.
I certainly bow to experts, but from the days I used to work with actuaries and accountants on these type issues, my recollection is that anything which was referenced as normal cost did a decent job at synching with liabilities as they are incurred. The supplemental liability cost part referenced by k2, if it underlies the Portland numbers, suggests there may be some catch up for insufficient past accounting of accrued retirement liabilities amortized over a future period of time, judgmentally determined.
The only way to fix this pension system is to take it out of the hides of those already retired. The probability that this city council will ever do that is really close to zero. Time for another on-side kick.
This is what happens when the people who negotiate the contract have no skin in the game. The politicians who negotiate with the unions are not personally responsible for what they promise. The worst that could happen to them is to not be re-elected; their pockets aren't affected at all.
If we could go back to the elected and non-elected officials who negotiated these contracts, and the boards or mayors or whatever who approved them contracts, and make them personally responsible for the benefits they approved, that would satisfy my sense of justice just fine.
If this is the work of multiple politicians, there is one primary architect. Randy Leonard. While serving in the State Legislature in the 90's he made some stealthy tweaks to the state collective bargaining laws as well as the workers compensation laws with respect to police and fire. For example, certain illnesses were by state law deemed automatically "work related" for fire fighters thereby folding all manner of additional maladies under the Police and Fire Disability Fund (same as the pension fund) regardless of whether they were, in actuality, caused by their work. A classic example is one former President of the Portland Firefighters Association (PFFA) developed lung cancer. He was a lifelong smoker, but his illness was paid for by Portland's uber rich disability fund owing to the state law Randy had crafted while in the Oregon Legislature.
Knowing how he had tweaked the state law in so many small corners of the ORS, once he became a member of City Council he then went about "suggesting" changes to City policies or certain provisions to the Police and Fire labor contracts to dovetail with his legislative work.
He was a master. Randy spent two and half decades screwing Portland taxpayers. He was so good at it, it will take five decades to dig out from under Randy's stealthy largess.
Charamba, Douro 2008
Horse Heaven Hills, Cabernet 2010
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills Pinot Grigio 2011
Avignonesi, Montepulciano 2004
Lorelle, Willamette Valley Pinot Noir 2011
Villa Antinori, Toscana 2007
Mercedes Eguren, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
Lorelle, Columbia Valley Cabernet 2011
Purple Moon, Merlot 2011
Purple Moon, Chardonnnay 2011
Abacela, Vintner's Blend No. 12
Opula Red Blend 2010
Liberte, Pinot Noir 2010
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Indian Wells Red Blend 2010
Woodbridge, Chardonnay 2011
King Estate, Pinot Noir 2011
Famille Perrin, Cotes du Rhone Villages 2010
Columbia Crest, Les Chevaux Red 2010
14 Hands, Hot to Trot White Blend
Familia Bianchi, Malbec 2009
Terrapin Cellars, Pinot Gris 2011
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2009
Campo Viejo, Rioja, Termpranillo 2010
Ravenswood, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2010
Waterbrook, Reserve Merlot 2009
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills, Pinot Grigio 2011
Tarantas, Rose
Chateau Lajarre, Bordeaux 2009
La Vielle Ferme, Rose 2011
Benvolio, Pinot Grigio 2011
Nobilo Icon, Pinot Noir 2009
Lello, Douro Tinto 2009
Quinson Fils, Cotes de Provence Rose 2011
Anindor, Pinot Gris 2010
Buenas Ondas, Syrah Rose 2010
Les Fiefs d'Anglars, Malbec 2009
14 Hands, Pinot Gris 2011
Conundrum 2012
Condes de Albarei, Albariño 2011
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2007
Penelope Sanchez, Garnacha Syrah 2010
Canoe Ridge, Merlot 2007
Atalaya do Mar, Godello 2010
Vega Montan, Mencia
Benvolio, Pinot Grigio
Nobilo Icon, Pinot Noir, Marlborough 2009
Portuga, Rose 2011
Revelation, Chardonnay, Pays d'Oc 2010
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 2005
Monte Alto, Tinto Reserva 2005
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Cabernet, Indian Wells 2009
Espiral, Vinho Rose
Vin-Koru, Pinot Gris 2011
14 Hands, Hot to Trot Red 2009
Rodney Strong, Cabernet, Sonoma 2009
Abacela, Vintner's Blend #11
Portuga, White 2010
La Bourgeoisie, Red 2009
Januik, Red 2009
Three Rivers, River's Red 2008
Kirkland, Alexander Valley Merlot 2008
Muga, Rioja Rose 2010
Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2009
Mauro Molino, Barbera d'Alba 2009
Garda Chiaretto Rose
Columbia Crest, Two Vines Vineyard 10 White
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Pinot Gris, Columbia Valley 2009
L'Hortus, Rose de Saignee 2010
Maculan, Pino & Toi 2008
McKinley Springs, Bombing Range Red 2008
Trader Joe's Pinot Gris 2009
Montes Alpha, Cabernet 2007
Gran Sasso, Sangiovese, Terre di Chieti 2009
Garda, Classico Chiaretto Rose
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 1999
Picos del Montgo, Tempranillo 2008
Chateau de Montmirail, Vacqueyras 2008
La Granja 360, Syrah 2009
Montgras, Carmenere Reserva 2009
Lange, Pinot Gris 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Cabernet 2008
Kirkland, Pinot Grigio 2010
Trader Joe's Coastal Syrah 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Merlot 2008
Trader Joe's Coastal Chardonnay 2009
Vieux Papes Red
Domaine de l'Aujardiere, Chardonnay 2009
Santa Rita, Cabernet, Medalla Real 2007
Penfold's, Koonunga Hill Shiraz Cabernet 2008
Guild, Red, Lot #02 2008
Dievole, Dievolino Sangiovese 2008
Laforet, Burgogne Chardonnay 2009
Columbia Winery, Merlot 2007
Bonterra, Cabernet 2008
Elk Cove, Pinot Gris 2009
Maquis Lien 2006
Scott Paul, Pinot Noir, Le Paulee 2007
The Occasional Book
Neil Young - Waging Heavy Peace
Mark Bego - Aretha Franklin, the Queen of Soul (2012 ed.)
Jenny Lawson - Let's Pretend This Never Happened
J.D. Salinger - Franny and Zooey
Charles Dickens - A Christmas Carol
Timothy Egan - The Big Burn
Deborah Eisenberg - Transactions in a Foreign Currency
Kurt Vonnegut Jr. - Slaughterhouse Five
Kathryn Lance - Pandora's Genes
Cheryl Strayed - Wild
Fyodor Dostoyevsky - The Brothers Karamazov
Jack London - The House of Pride, and Other Tales of Hawaii
Jack Walker - The Extraordinary Rendition of Vincent Dellamaria
Colum McCann - Let the Great World Spin
Niccolò Machiavelli - The Prince
Harper Lee - To Kill a Mockingbird
Emma McLaughlin & Nicola Kraus - The Nanny Diaries
Brian Selznick - The Invention of Hugo Cabret
Sharon Creech - Walk Two Moons
Keith Richards - Life
F. Sionil Jose - Dusk
Natalie Babbitt - Tuck Everlasting
Justin Halpern - S#*t My Dad Says
Mark Herrmann - The Curmudgeon's Guide to Practicing Law
Barry Glassner - The Gospel of Food
Phil Stanford - The Peyton-Allan Files
Jesse Katz - The Opposite Field
Evelyn Waugh - Brideshead Revisited
J.K. Rowling - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
David Sedaris - Holidays on Ice
Donald Miller - A Million Miles in a Thousand Years
Mitch Albom - Have a Little Faith
C.S. Lewis - The Magician's Nephew
F. Scott Fitzgerald - The Great Gatsby
William Shakespeare - A Midsummer Night's Dream
Ivan Doig - Bucking the Sun
Penda Diakité - I Lost My Tooth in Africa
Grace Lin - The Year of the Rat
Oscar Hijuelos - Mr. Ives' Christmas
Madeline L'Engle - A Wrinkle in Time
Steven Hart - The Last Three Miles
David Sedaris - Me Talk Pretty One Day
Karen Armstrong - The Spiral Staircase
Charles Larson - The Portland Murders
Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
Steven D. Stark - Meet the Beatles
Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
Rick Moody - Garden State
Jonathan Schwartz - All in Good Time
David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim
Anthony Holden - Big Deal
Robert J. Spitzer - The Spirit of Leadership
James McManus - Positively Fifth Street
Jeff Noon - Vurt
Road Work
Miles run year to date: 21
At this date last year: 52
Total run in 2012: 129
In 2011: 113
In 2010: 125
In 2009: 67
In 2008: 28
In 2007: 113
In 2006: 100
In 2005: 149
In 2004: 204
In 2003: 269
Comments (16)
So stop worrying about a bunch of bus drivers.
We are chump change compared to the cops.
And as an extra bonus, we don't shoot people.
Posted by al m | January 17, 2013 1:57 PM
That is even more than the $100 million/yr property tax diverted to the PDC and other UR blood suckers.
Thanks
JK
Posted by jim karlock | January 17, 2013 2:11 PM
OK, 6b.
When Leonard gave us that cock-n-bull story about his measure 3 or so years ago. Remember we only needed a prop tax increase for 30 years to pay for his pension.
This guy is going to be expensive long after he's gone. PWB is already sucking $40M a year more out rate payers more than they did 4 years ago.
Posted by Steve | January 17, 2013 2:23 PM
I'm not sure I would divide $2,880,000,000 by 600,000 residents. Better to divide it by the number of property taxpayers, because it's coming out of their hides. At least until they introduce Portland's new "Public Safety Income Tax".
Posted by Mister Tee | January 17, 2013 2:58 PM
Praise, honor and a bronze statue on the Eastbank Esplanade go to Vera Katz, who I believe negotiated this pension problem. And Willy Week correctly pointed this out at the time.
Posted by Don | January 17, 2013 3:00 PM
"
Attained Age Normal
Characteristics
Aggregate
Projected Benefit
Level Percentage for normal cost
Separate Past Service Benefit
The past service benefits for all participants, defined as in the Unit Credit method, are lumped and spread evenly over a fixed period of years. The current service cost is expressed as a percentage of payroll as in the aggregate method.
Entry Age Normal
Also called: Individual Level Cost with Supplemental Liability
Characteristics
Individual
Projected Benefit
Level Payment
Separate Past Service Benefit
The cost of the full benefit for each participant is first spread as a level amount each year, from year of hire to year of retirement. In the years from the start of the plan until the individual retires, this amount is called the normal cost. The cost from hire to the start of the plan is then reassigned to a fixed period of time, generally 10 to 30 years. This becomes the supplemental cost."
From Cal State LA Accounting 503 course materials
http://www.calstatela.edu/faculty/hwarren/a503/actuari2.htm
If you want a mathier explanation you could take a look at this: Fundamentals of Pension Funding - Society of Actuaries
http://www.soa.org/library/monographs/50th-anniversary/society-of-actuaries-50th-anniversary/1999/january/m-av99-1-02.pdf
Posted by k2 | January 17, 2013 3:17 PM
I think it will eventually become clear that the politicians that created this mess could've cared less whether or not these commitments could ever possibly be met, they simply got something that they wanted out of it at the time.
State of Oregon = state of no accountability.
Posted by Mr. Grumpy | January 17, 2013 3:28 PM
Mr. Grumpy:
It's breaking here, but Oregon for sure is not the only state of no accountability, in a nation of no accountability.
It's going to be real ugly in some places when the fit hits the shan.
What is going to happen when those who say 6B push back at paying the bill when it comes due? Not even the well managed states (Indiana, for instance) are 100% immune.
Not looking forward to what happens.
It's Mike
Posted by It's Mike | January 17, 2013 4:07 PM
Jack, could you tell me how to stop my page from refreshing automatically every so many seconds? I am using Windows 8 and the latest internet explorer. I like the new Windows 8 operating system over my old XP OS, and especially the multitasking new quad pro intel processor. But for some reason haven't been able to find something to slow the refreshing on your page.
Wouldn't a better approach to have placed Portland fire and police into the PERS system, as this puts it out of the hands of the especially financially irresponsible Portland City Hall? At least the PERS system is under some significant review for change.
Posted by Bob Clark | January 17, 2013 4:13 PM
Am I the only one that doesn't know what this 6B and 6C code is all about? Is that the nonprofit tax break code or something?
Posted by Jo | January 17, 2013 6:24 PM
http://bojack.org/2013/01/dirty_little_portland_chapter.html#comment-210130
Posted by Jack Bog | January 17, 2013 7:48 PM
I certainly bow to experts, but from the days I used to work with actuaries and accountants on these type issues, my recollection is that anything which was referenced as normal cost did a decent job at synching with liabilities as they are incurred. The supplemental liability cost part referenced by k2, if it underlies the Portland numbers, suggests there may be some catch up for insufficient past accounting of accrued retirement liabilities amortized over a future period of time, judgmentally determined.
Posted by Newleaf | January 17, 2013 8:36 PM
In a nutshell:
6B.= Stop your whining, you voted for them, . . .
6C.= No I didn't vote for them . . .
Posted by clinamen | January 17, 2013 10:45 PM
The only way to fix this pension system is to take it out of the hides of those already retired. The probability that this city council will ever do that is really close to zero. Time for another on-side kick.
Posted by Frank | January 18, 2013 5:37 AM
This is what happens when the people who negotiate the contract have no skin in the game. The politicians who negotiate with the unions are not personally responsible for what they promise. The worst that could happen to them is to not be re-elected; their pockets aren't affected at all.
If we could go back to the elected and non-elected officials who negotiated these contracts, and the boards or mayors or whatever who approved them contracts, and make them personally responsible for the benefits they approved, that would satisfy my sense of justice just fine.
Posted by Kai Jones | January 18, 2013 8:01 AM
If this is the work of multiple politicians, there is one primary architect. Randy Leonard. While serving in the State Legislature in the 90's he made some stealthy tweaks to the state collective bargaining laws as well as the workers compensation laws with respect to police and fire. For example, certain illnesses were by state law deemed automatically "work related" for fire fighters thereby folding all manner of additional maladies under the Police and Fire Disability Fund (same as the pension fund) regardless of whether they were, in actuality, caused by their work. A classic example is one former President of the Portland Firefighters Association (PFFA) developed lung cancer. He was a lifelong smoker, but his illness was paid for by Portland's uber rich disability fund owing to the state law Randy had crafted while in the Oregon Legislature.
Knowing how he had tweaked the state law in so many small corners of the ORS, once he became a member of City Council he then went about "suggesting" changes to City policies or certain provisions to the Police and Fire labor contracts to dovetail with his legislative work.
He was a master. Randy spent two and half decades screwing Portland taxpayers. He was so good at it, it will take five decades to dig out from under Randy's stealthy largess.
Posted by x-portlander | January 23, 2013 8:51 PM