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Monday, November 5, 2012

Reader poll: Who will win the White House?

Well, here we are, folks -- election eve. Who do you think will prevail in the presidential election? Not necessarily the candidate you voted for, or the one you want to win. We want your prediction:

Who will win the presidential election? free polls 

Comments (36)

I'm going for 302 to 236, Romney for the EC win, and the popular vote by 4%, 47-51%. Yes, I'm an outlier, a rebel, a total non-conformist.

To quote the great Woody Allen:

“More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly.”

My preferred candidate isn't here. As in every election year since 1988, I write-in Charles Manson, on the campaign slogan "Because A Nation of Freaks Deserves To Be Led By One". We certainly can't do worse than to let Charlie be in charge, now can we?

Now you should report on the findings of this poll and put a headline like: Obama wins the election

Report it as news.

"Now you should report on the findings of this poll and put a headline like: Obama "

A writer actually wrote to a Q&A column in my local newspaper last week to ask (seriously) if the election process counted all the votes or just took a random sampling of them as polls did.

The only thing that is for sure is that "we the people" are going to be the real losers.

Harry, I think its going to be a little bigger than you may think... Romney 312 EC votes and wins popular vote by 5.5%.
Polling shows Obama never breaks 50%, the polling is skewed towards the historic 08 turnout (therefore oversampling D's), with no correction for '10 turnout.
Jack: is there a prize for those who go on a limb with actual numbers and come closest?
Cheers, It's Mike

There may be prize Mike, but you ain't winning it with that prediction.

Obama: 328 Romney: 206. Obama: 51.1% Romney 48.4%.

Unless the polls are way off, Obama should cruise to victory. Once he wins Ohio and Virginia, the race is over. Expect this to be called early for Obama. Like 5pm PST, early.

I predict that I will be disappointed no matter what happens. And then my life will go on and, since the President has very little real power, I won't really care much.

The House and Senate races are much more interesting.

So you get one guy that will systematically disassemble this country piece by line-item piece, like an expense report...or the guy who will hunt your American citizenship holding ass down and throw away the key with a drone, produced in White Salmon.

We need more less party affiliation.

Obama he electoral voe, Romney the popular vote.

he Blue Oregon ideologues will be on he opposite end of Bush - Gore. Maybe hey'll finally shut up.

Well, I can at least hope they will.

(Darn "T" key keeps sticking.)

Obama the electoral vote, Romney the popular vote.

The Blue Oregon ideologues will be on he opposite end of Bush - Gore. Maybe they'll finally shut up.

Well, I can at least hope they will.

The Blue Oregon ideologues will be on he opposite end of Bush - Gore.

Nonny, have you really forgotten what actually happened in 2000, or are you betting that the rest of us have?

Romney gets 279 EC votes and 52%. Don't blame me. I voted Gary Johnson.

The POTUS has a problem. He can't pull anywhere near 50%, he relied heavily on independents four years ago. Democrat registrations are down generally and those indep. votes he received last time are headed out the barn.

Not all of the democrats are willing to hold their respective noses as well.

Nonny, have you really forgotten what actually happened in 2000, or are you betting that the rest of us have?

Apparently, some of "us" never knew.

Bush won the EC, Gore won the PV.

BO screamed bloody murder.

If this outcome is reversed, I'm sure BO's silence will be deafening.

Um, you guys do realize that Obama is going to win right? I mean, bluster has its place, but....

Problem is, Snards, everybody is blustering.

Allen L.

I haven' forgotten what happened in 2000.

Bush won he Electoral college fair and square.

I know that clashes with your alternate reality. Get over it.

Gore won the popular vote.

Popular vote alone doesn't decide he elecion.

This time Obama will win the Electoral college.

Romney will win he otal popular vote.

No "mandate" for Obama. Four more years of uter gridlock.

Lucky us.

Its a damn shame Obama wased he wo years when he had a majoriy in boh Hopuse and Senate from January 3, 2009 hrough January 3, 2011.

An even greater shame that the feckless Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid hasn'tfigured out the actual Senate rules on filibisters, and required a few Repugnicans o actually exhaust themselves with a real filibuster.

That spectacle,on C-Span, parallel to Gingrich's stupidity during the Clinton Administraion, of "shutting down he government", would garner the Senate Repugnicans the same public opprobrium earned by Gingrich and Company, and result in more than a few losses of Repubnican seats in the Senate.

Its hardball, it takes balls, and both Reid and especially are woefully deficient in cojones.

Last line should read:

Its hardball, it takes balls, and both Reid and especially Obama are woefully deficient in cojones.

Snards: I dont realize it at all... Maybe I travel too much to other parts of the country (Even MSP, not exactly red-state), and talk to too many other people across the spectrum that tell me that while they may have voted Obama in '08, they are not going to do so again. Not that they are staunch Romney advocates, but they are let down by the actualities of the current administration (talk to folks in Fremont about Solyndra: your eyes will be opened, and that is NOT a red area of CA).

And I may not well win the prize for my prediction above, but i went out on the limb and made it (you can too, put some numbers behind your "everyone knows").. and yes, my limb includes PA for Romney; which is the only time the limb shakes a little.

The "buyers remorse" will be seen on Wednesday morning as much deeper than anyone thought, or got mentioned in the polls..

On the last couple of presidential elections, a quite liberal friend of mine and i have a gentleman's wager where the loser contributes a fixed pre-determined amount to the winners charity of choice. No one loses, and in '08 the winner was the Oregon Food Bank ('04's winner was Oregon Humane Society)

Cheers, It's Mike

What puzzles me is what purpose is served by rewriting the history of the 2000 election. First of all, there is no popular vote election for anyone to win. You can add up the numbers, but in our system the totals have no political significance. As for the Electoral College, we really don't know who won it, because of the intervention of the courts.

Watching Ohio and Florida devolve into chaos, one wonders how we can expend blood and treasure on "establishing democracy in the Middle East" while not ensuring -- and indeed, taking steps to inhibit -- the full voting participation of all citizens wishing to exercise their privilege.

Well good luck Mike. If it doesn't bounce your way remember that the polls have basically been saying the same thing for a year, so the surprise is not really a surprise.

My prediction is that Obama wins EC with 290 to 300, and popular vote by less than 1%.

The polling pundits that aggregate the state and national polls predict Obama at about 300 in the EC and maybe 1% in the general popular vote. But I think Mike is on to the issue that might discredit those statistical models. My rational analysis tells me Obama, but there's a small voice of intuition that's screaming Romney. So I'm trying to limit my expectations.
Just hope that with a second term, Obama has the will and determination to make the hard compromises on his party's side of the aisle,necessary to get the deficit and future debt profile of our Country under control, and that the Tea Party Republicans don't take us all hostage again. Oh, and I wish for world peace too.

279-279 tie. House stays GOP but they lose a few seats. Senate remains dem or tied. Romney gets the majority in the House. If the dems retain control of the Senate they elect Biden. If the Senate is tied . . . civil war followed by amendment getting rid of the stupid electoral system.

errr. . . 269-269

I have it as tie with Romney firmly taking the popular vote. It goes to the legislature and Romney takes it.

Of the swing states:

Romney: The south (FL, VA, NC) and the western swingers (NV & CO, both went for Bush).

Obama: The entire mid west including Ohio, PA, etc...

Then it comes down to Iowa and New Hampshire. If Iowa goes Romney and NH go Obama we have a tie. If that flips, Obama wins by 2.

Barack coasts with 300+ EV, and 51+ in the PV. The GOP did themselves no favors by letting the Limbaugh wing take over.

Romney will win, not before the whole sentient population steps on their very last collective nerve, and has a gigantic absence seizure under the bedcovers, with the TV firmly switched off, from midday PST through the long, long night of the election...

This election reminds me of ditching an abusive boyfriend on the very same day you enter an arranged marriage with someone you've never met, who comes highly recommended, and is easy on the eyes. The relief of escaping a hellish interpersonal trap produces a euphoric level of optimism about the new member of the household.

I have my ear protectors and eyepatches all prepped to go. If my prediction is right, I will remove them for coffee in the morning. If wrong, they will be replaced and I will return to bed for at least a few more hours.

266 Obama/272 Romney.

He wins Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Iowa.

If Romney loses Iowa, then he has to win Colorado or Wisconsin. Unless PA is actually in play, which seems unlikely.

My preferred outcome: Romney loses Iowa, but picks up Oregon...Wouldn't that be a surprise?

All you Romney predictors should have waited until the measure passed making that stuff legal before you smoked it.

The measure "making that stuff legal" is not going to pass, Allan. So there's one you got wrong. I wish it were the other.

Sally, I made no prediction in that last post about anything.


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In Vino Veritas

Lange, Pinot Gris 2015
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Willamette Valley, Pinot Gris 2015
Aix, Rosé de Provence 2016
Marchigüe, Cabernet 2013
Inazío Irruzola, Getariako Txakolina Rosé 2015
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Kirkland, Côtes de Provence Rosé 2016
Cantele, Salice Salentino Reserva 2013
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Avissi, Prosecco
Cleto Charli, Lambrusco di Sorbara Secco, Vecchia Modena
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Edmunds St. John, Bone-Jolly Rosé 2016
Stoller, Pinot Noir Rosé 2016
Chehalem, Inox Chardonnay 2015
The Four Graces, Pinot Gris 2015
Gascón, Colosal Red 2013
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L'Ecole No. 41, Merlot 2013
Della Terra, Anonymus
Willamette Valley, Dijon Clone Chardonnay 2013
Wraith, Cabernet, Eidolon Estate 2012
Januik, Red 2015
Tomassi, Valpolicella, Rafaél, 2014
Sharecropper's Pinot Noir 2013
Helix, Pomatia Red Blend 2013
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Primarius, Pinot Gris 2015
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Napa Cellars, Cabernet 2013
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Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 2009
Denada Cellars, Cabernet, Maipo Valley 2014
Marchigüe, Cabernet, Colchagua Valley 2013
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Balboa, Rose of Grenache 2015
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Phil Stanford - Rose City Vice
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Kathryn Lance - Pandora's Genes
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Jack London - The House of Pride, and Other Tales of Hawaii
Jack Walker - The Extraordinary Rendition of Vincent Dellamaria
Colum McCann - Let the Great World Spin
Niccolò Machiavelli - The Prince
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Emma McLaughlin & Nicola Kraus - The Nanny Diaries
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Keith Richards - Life
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Natalie Babbitt - Tuck Everlasting
Justin Halpern - S#*t My Dad Says
Mark Herrmann - The Curmudgeon's Guide to Practicing Law
Barry Glassner - The Gospel of Food
Phil Stanford - The Peyton-Allan Files
Jesse Katz - The Opposite Field
Evelyn Waugh - Brideshead Revisited
J.K. Rowling - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
David Sedaris - Holidays on Ice
Donald Miller - A Million Miles in a Thousand Years
Mitch Albom - Have a Little Faith
C.S. Lewis - The Magician's Nephew
F. Scott Fitzgerald - The Great Gatsby
William Shakespeare - A Midsummer Night's Dream
Ivan Doig - Bucking the Sun
Penda Diakité - I Lost My Tooth in Africa
Grace Lin - The Year of the Rat
Oscar Hijuelos - Mr. Ives' Christmas
Madeline L'Engle - A Wrinkle in Time
Steven Hart - The Last Three Miles
David Sedaris - Me Talk Pretty One Day
Karen Armstrong - The Spiral Staircase
Charles Larson - The Portland Murders
Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
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Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
Rick Moody - Garden State
Jonathan Schwartz - All in Good Time
David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim
Anthony Holden - Big Deal
Robert J. Spitzer - The Spirit of Leadership
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