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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on December 6, 2011 2:44 PM. The previous post in this blog was Feds fine PacifiCorp $3.9 million. The next post in this blog is Book review. Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

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Tuesday, December 6, 2011

I'm looking at the 'dogs, reflections of my mind

It's Tuesday afternoon, and time for this week's lineup in our charity pro football underdog game. It includes a few big boys:

16.5 INDIANAPOLIS at Baltimore
14 CLEVELAND at Pittsburgh (Thursday 5:20 p.m.)
11 OAKLAND at Green Bay
9 KANSAS CITY at New York Jets
7.5 WASHINGTON vs. New England
7 MINNESOTA at Detroit
6 BUFFALO at San Diego
3.5 TENNESSEE vs. New Orleans
3.5 CHICAGO at Denver
3.5 ARIZONA vs. San Francisco
3 CAROLINA vs. Atlanta
3 NEW YORK GIANTS at Dallas
3 HOUSTON at Cincinnati
1 JACKSONVILLE vs. Tampa Bay

No Eagles/Dolphins or Rams/Seahawks yet. Happy pickin', players!

UPDATE, 10:03 p.m.: Add this one:

3 PHILADELPHIA at Miami

Comments (5)

Oh man, there are some juicy ones in there.

BTW, I did a little analysis on which favorites consistently lost... and which dogs consistently won.

Interestingly, if a person had bet against Philadelphia every single week they were favored, they'd be leading the pack with 47.5 points! SEVEN TIMES they've lost when favored. Baltimore is next at 21 points over three loses.

As for the most generous 'dog, that would be Seattle. They've clocked 25.5 points by winning 5 times when the underdog.

*disclaimer - I used a different set of lines when doing my analysis, so points may not exactly match up with bojack lines.

Yep...Seattle surprised a lot of folks when they beat the NY Giants in NY, and that's probably a big chunk of the 25.5 points. Philly has been totally schizo by losing at home so frequently even though they looked strong on paper, and Baltimore dropped its focus a few times and unexpectedly lost to a few stinkers as well, hence the big points even though they are a pretty good team overall.

Mojo's "Best Bets," "Upset Special" & "Gamblers Corner" coming up on Saturday. Forget Cleveland at Pittsburgh tomorrow night --though will put analysis of Oakland through a cheesecloth, for good measure in recognition of high volume of action expected on that value-pick & #1 candidate for the "Upset Special."

Do the Colts recapture any magic on this return to Baltimore?

"Mojo's Best Bets"
The Freezing Fog, Pass the Egg Nog, Edition

"Best Bets"
(Last week: 0-2; overall 12-17)

HOUSTON (+3) at Cincinnati -- Despite the Bengals' top-rated defense and above-average offensive performances so far this year, led by their outstanding rookie QB Andy Dalton, Cincinnati has a horrible record against teams with winning records, and have faltered the past two weeks against strong opponents. Houston is a powerful defensive and offensive team, even with a backup now at QB. With their impressive one-two punch at RB, and striving to maintain their 2-game division lead over the dangerous Tennessee Titans, look for the Texans to take this one on the road in making a statement to the league, to the Titans, and to their anxious but hopeful fans.

CHICAGO (+3.5) at Denver -- The Bruins of the Midway will be prepared for Tebow & the triple option. The Broncos may try to air out some downfield to exploit the revolving safeties situation the Bears are forced to go with yet again, but Urlacher will have a big game, as will Julius Peppers who will try to get to Tebow early in the play development. Bears have a big special teams edge, too, with Hester & Gould. Denver has won five in a row. Sheesh. Bet against that streak.

Minus the Bear ~ Animal Backwards
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZ_Wc_DWUXY

"Upset Special"
(Last week 1-1; overall 3-11)

KANSAS CITY (+9) at NY Jets -- 2nd week in a row that the Chiefs are featured on the Upset Special, having won last week over the favored Bears in Chicago! This week, the Chiefs' defense rattles NY QB Mark "Boo-Boo" Sanchez, and KC QB Tyler Palko beats the Jets with his athleticism, scrambling, and throwing medium and short range passes on the run, bolstered with solid run game performances by the OL and RB Thomas Jones, a former Jet who is still loved in NYC. And, after this game, it'll be the Jets' big-mouth coach Rex Ryan's QB who's got "issues." There's side-action betting on whether Sanchez gets booed by his home crowd when he's introduced at the beginning of the game.

Don't Boo Sanchez by Kevin Kernan, New York Post
http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/jets/don_boo_sanchez_hONljB0xUfBvAPRTWOe6OO

"Gamblers Corner"

NY GIANTS (+3) at Dallas -- This is a tempting pick, but here you have two teams going in the opposite direction, performance-wise. The Giants are 1-4 in the last 5 games, and come into Dallas (where they do win now & then) on a 4 game losing streak. Meanwhile, Dallas has looked pretty good going 4-1. Dallas has extra motivation in knowing that a win over NY buries the Giants in the division race and probably seals their fate, putting them waaaay outside looking in for a wildcard playoff spot.

BUFFALO (+6) at San Diego -- The wheels have come after the Bills' super-charged start to this season, and they come rumbling in San Diego facing a Chargers team that is talented, healthy, and desperate. The key to this game will be the performances of the two QBs. If Rivers continues with his recovery and clicks in the first half, the Chargers will win going away.

MINNESOTA (+7) at Detroit -- The Lions won't even miss psycho Suh in handling the Vikings crumbling offensive squad missing any decent player at QB and without superstar RB Adrien Peterson; though if the spectacular Percy Harvin isn't suffering from one of his chronic and terrible migranes, the Vikes could possibly keep this close enough for a last-second kick to be the difference. A tough, tough pick. That's why it's here in the Gamblers Corner.

OAKLAND (+11) at Green Bay -- The Raiders won't be able to pull this one off with so many key guys on offense still hurting and missing this week's contest. Compound that with the fact that the Raiders currently have the NFL's 6th worst pass defense. Good night, nurse!

INDIANAPOLIS (+16.5) at Baltimore -- I wish. Don't you? If Dwight Freeney can get to Flacco, it might happen. Could be another one of those 9-6 games. But, then again, the Ravens might pass for 400 yards and 5 TDs against the poor Colts. I'd bet the Colts to cover the spread, but the chances of them winning outright are about the same as Greg Oden playing goalie for the Timbers next year.


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Charamba, Douro 2008
Horse Heaven Hills, Cabernet 2010
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills Pinot Grigio 2011
Avignonesi, Montepulciano 2004
Lorelle, Willamette Valley Pinot Noir 2011
Villa Antinori, Toscana 2007
Mercedes Eguren, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
Lorelle, Columbia Valley Cabernet 2011
Purple Moon, Merlot 2011
Purple Moon, Chardonnnay 2011
Abacela, Vintner's Blend No. 12
Opula Red Blend 2010
Liberte, Pinot Noir 2010
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Indian Wells Red Blend 2010
Woodbridge, Chardonnay 2011
King Estate, Pinot Noir 2011
Famille Perrin, Cotes du Rhone Villages 2010
Columbia Crest, Les Chevaux Red 2010
14 Hands, Hot to Trot White Blend
Familia Bianchi, Malbec 2009
Terrapin Cellars, Pinot Gris 2011
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2009
Campo Viejo, Rioja, Termpranillo 2010
Ravenswood, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2010
Waterbrook, Reserve Merlot 2009
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills, Pinot Grigio 2011
Tarantas, Rose
Chateau Lajarre, Bordeaux 2009
La Vielle Ferme, Rose 2011
Benvolio, Pinot Grigio 2011
Nobilo Icon, Pinot Noir 2009
Lello, Douro Tinto 2009
Quinson Fils, Cotes de Provence Rose 2011
Anindor, Pinot Gris 2010
Buenas Ondas, Syrah Rose 2010
Les Fiefs d'Anglars, Malbec 2009
14 Hands, Pinot Gris 2011
Conundrum 2012
Condes de Albarei, Albariño 2011
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2007
Penelope Sanchez, Garnacha Syrah 2010
Canoe Ridge, Merlot 2007
Atalaya do Mar, Godello 2010
Vega Montan, Mencia
Benvolio, Pinot Grigio
Nobilo Icon, Pinot Noir, Marlborough 2009
Portuga, Rose 2011
Revelation, Chardonnay, Pays d'Oc 2010
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 2005
Monte Alto, Tinto Reserva 2005
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Cabernet, Indian Wells 2009
Espiral, Vinho Rose
Vin-Koru, Pinot Gris 2011
14 Hands, Hot to Trot Red 2009
Rodney Strong, Cabernet, Sonoma 2009
Abacela, Vintner's Blend #11
Portuga, White 2010
La Bourgeoisie, Red 2009
Januik, Red 2009
Three Rivers, River's Red 2008
Kirkland, Alexander Valley Merlot 2008
Muga, Rioja Rose 2010
Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2009
Mauro Molino, Barbera d'Alba 2009
Garda Chiaretto Rose
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Chateau Ste. Michelle, Pinot Gris, Columbia Valley 2009
L'Hortus, Rose de Saignee 2010
Maculan, Pino & Toi 2008
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Trader Joe's Pinot Gris 2009
Montes Alpha, Cabernet 2007
Gran Sasso, Sangiovese, Terre di Chieti 2009
Garda, Classico Chiaretto Rose
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 1999
Picos del Montgo, Tempranillo 2008
Chateau de Montmirail, Vacqueyras 2008
La Granja 360, Syrah 2009
Montgras, Carmenere Reserva 2009
Lange, Pinot Gris 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Cabernet 2008
Kirkland, Pinot Grigio 2010
Trader Joe's Coastal Syrah 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Merlot 2008
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Vieux Papes Red
Domaine de l'Aujardiere, Chardonnay 2009
Santa Rita, Cabernet, Medalla Real 2007
Penfold's, Koonunga Hill Shiraz Cabernet 2008
Guild, Red, Lot #02 2008
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Columbia Winery, Merlot 2007
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The Occasional Book

Neil Young - Waging Heavy Peace
Mark Bego - Aretha Franklin, the Queen of Soul (2012 ed.)
Jenny Lawson - Let's Pretend This Never Happened
J.D. Salinger - Franny and Zooey
Charles Dickens - A Christmas Carol
Timothy Egan - The Big Burn
Deborah Eisenberg - Transactions in a Foreign Currency
Kurt Vonnegut Jr. - Slaughterhouse Five
Kathryn Lance - Pandora's Genes
Cheryl Strayed - Wild
Fyodor Dostoyevsky - The Brothers Karamazov
Jack London - The House of Pride, and Other Tales of Hawaii
Jack Walker - The Extraordinary Rendition of Vincent Dellamaria
Colum McCann - Let the Great World Spin
Niccolò Machiavelli - The Prince
Harper Lee - To Kill a Mockingbird
Emma McLaughlin & Nicola Kraus - The Nanny Diaries
Brian Selznick - The Invention of Hugo Cabret
Sharon Creech - Walk Two Moons
Keith Richards - Life
F. Sionil Jose - Dusk
Natalie Babbitt - Tuck Everlasting
Justin Halpern - S#*t My Dad Says
Mark Herrmann - The Curmudgeon's Guide to Practicing Law
Barry Glassner - The Gospel of Food
Phil Stanford - The Peyton-Allan Files
Jesse Katz - The Opposite Field
Evelyn Waugh - Brideshead Revisited
J.K. Rowling - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
David Sedaris - Holidays on Ice
Donald Miller - A Million Miles in a Thousand Years
Mitch Albom - Have a Little Faith
C.S. Lewis - The Magician's Nephew
F. Scott Fitzgerald - The Great Gatsby
William Shakespeare - A Midsummer Night's Dream
Ivan Doig - Bucking the Sun
Penda Diakité - I Lost My Tooth in Africa
Grace Lin - The Year of the Rat
Oscar Hijuelos - Mr. Ives' Christmas
Madeline L'Engle - A Wrinkle in Time
Steven Hart - The Last Three Miles
David Sedaris - Me Talk Pretty One Day
Karen Armstrong - The Spiral Staircase
Charles Larson - The Portland Murders
Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
Steven D. Stark - Meet the Beatles
Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
Rick Moody - Garden State
Jonathan Schwartz - All in Good Time
David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim
Anthony Holden - Big Deal
Robert J. Spitzer - The Spirit of Leadership
James McManus - Positively Fifth Street
Jeff Noon - Vurt

Road Work

Miles run year to date: 21
At this date last year: 52
Total run in 2012: 129
In 2011: 113
In 2010: 125
In 2009: 67
In 2008: 28
In 2007: 113
In 2006: 100
In 2005: 149
In 2004: 204
In 2003: 269


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