About

This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on December 6, 2011 2:44 PM. The previous post in this blog was Feds fine PacifiCorp $3.9 million. The next post in this blog is Book review. Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

E-mail, Feeds, 'n' Stuff

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

I'm looking at the 'dogs, reflections of my mind

It's Tuesday afternoon, and time for this week's lineup in our charity pro football underdog game. It includes a few big boys:

16.5 INDIANAPOLIS at Baltimore
14 CLEVELAND at Pittsburgh (Thursday 5:20 p.m.)
11 OAKLAND at Green Bay
9 KANSAS CITY at New York Jets
7.5 WASHINGTON vs. New England
7 MINNESOTA at Detroit
6 BUFFALO at San Diego
3.5 TENNESSEE vs. New Orleans
3.5 CHICAGO at Denver
3.5 ARIZONA vs. San Francisco
3 CAROLINA vs. Atlanta
3 NEW YORK GIANTS at Dallas
3 HOUSTON at Cincinnati
1 JACKSONVILLE vs. Tampa Bay

No Eagles/Dolphins or Rams/Seahawks yet. Happy pickin', players!

UPDATE, 10:03 p.m.: Add this one:

3 PHILADELPHIA at Miami

Comments (5)

Oh man, there are some juicy ones in there.

BTW, I did a little analysis on which favorites consistently lost... and which dogs consistently won.

Interestingly, if a person had bet against Philadelphia every single week they were favored, they'd be leading the pack with 47.5 points! SEVEN TIMES they've lost when favored. Baltimore is next at 21 points over three loses.

As for the most generous 'dog, that would be Seattle. They've clocked 25.5 points by winning 5 times when the underdog.

*disclaimer - I used a different set of lines when doing my analysis, so points may not exactly match up with bojack lines.

Yep...Seattle surprised a lot of folks when they beat the NY Giants in NY, and that's probably a big chunk of the 25.5 points. Philly has been totally schizo by losing at home so frequently even though they looked strong on paper, and Baltimore dropped its focus a few times and unexpectedly lost to a few stinkers as well, hence the big points even though they are a pretty good team overall.

Mojo's "Best Bets," "Upset Special" & "Gamblers Corner" coming up on Saturday. Forget Cleveland at Pittsburgh tomorrow night --though will put analysis of Oakland through a cheesecloth, for good measure in recognition of high volume of action expected on that value-pick & #1 candidate for the "Upset Special."

Do the Colts recapture any magic on this return to Baltimore?

"Mojo's Best Bets"
The Freezing Fog, Pass the Egg Nog, Edition

"Best Bets"
(Last week: 0-2; overall 12-17)

HOUSTON (+3) at Cincinnati -- Despite the Bengals' top-rated defense and above-average offensive performances so far this year, led by their outstanding rookie QB Andy Dalton, Cincinnati has a horrible record against teams with winning records, and have faltered the past two weeks against strong opponents. Houston is a powerful defensive and offensive team, even with a backup now at QB. With their impressive one-two punch at RB, and striving to maintain their 2-game division lead over the dangerous Tennessee Titans, look for the Texans to take this one on the road in making a statement to the league, to the Titans, and to their anxious but hopeful fans.

CHICAGO (+3.5) at Denver -- The Bruins of the Midway will be prepared for Tebow & the triple option. The Broncos may try to air out some downfield to exploit the revolving safeties situation the Bears are forced to go with yet again, but Urlacher will have a big game, as will Julius Peppers who will try to get to Tebow early in the play development. Bears have a big special teams edge, too, with Hester & Gould. Denver has won five in a row. Sheesh. Bet against that streak.

Minus the Bear ~ Animal Backwards
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZ_Wc_DWUXY

"Upset Special"
(Last week 1-1; overall 3-11)

KANSAS CITY (+9) at NY Jets -- 2nd week in a row that the Chiefs are featured on the Upset Special, having won last week over the favored Bears in Chicago! This week, the Chiefs' defense rattles NY QB Mark "Boo-Boo" Sanchez, and KC QB Tyler Palko beats the Jets with his athleticism, scrambling, and throwing medium and short range passes on the run, bolstered with solid run game performances by the OL and RB Thomas Jones, a former Jet who is still loved in NYC. And, after this game, it'll be the Jets' big-mouth coach Rex Ryan's QB who's got "issues." There's side-action betting on whether Sanchez gets booed by his home crowd when he's introduced at the beginning of the game.

Don't Boo Sanchez by Kevin Kernan, New York Post
http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/jets/don_boo_sanchez_hONljB0xUfBvAPRTWOe6OO

"Gamblers Corner"

NY GIANTS (+3) at Dallas -- This is a tempting pick, but here you have two teams going in the opposite direction, performance-wise. The Giants are 1-4 in the last 5 games, and come into Dallas (where they do win now & then) on a 4 game losing streak. Meanwhile, Dallas has looked pretty good going 4-1. Dallas has extra motivation in knowing that a win over NY buries the Giants in the division race and probably seals their fate, putting them waaaay outside looking in for a wildcard playoff spot.

BUFFALO (+6) at San Diego -- The wheels have come after the Bills' super-charged start to this season, and they come rumbling in San Diego facing a Chargers team that is talented, healthy, and desperate. The key to this game will be the performances of the two QBs. If Rivers continues with his recovery and clicks in the first half, the Chargers will win going away.

MINNESOTA (+7) at Detroit -- The Lions won't even miss psycho Suh in handling the Vikings crumbling offensive squad missing any decent player at QB and without superstar RB Adrien Peterson; though if the spectacular Percy Harvin isn't suffering from one of his chronic and terrible migranes, the Vikes could possibly keep this close enough for a last-second kick to be the difference. A tough, tough pick. That's why it's here in the Gamblers Corner.

OAKLAND (+11) at Green Bay -- The Raiders won't be able to pull this one off with so many key guys on offense still hurting and missing this week's contest. Compound that with the fact that the Raiders currently have the NFL's 6th worst pass defense. Good night, nurse!

INDIANAPOLIS (+16.5) at Baltimore -- I wish. Don't you? If Dwight Freeney can get to Flacco, it might happen. Could be another one of those 9-6 games. But, then again, the Ravens might pass for 400 yards and 5 TDs against the poor Colts. I'd bet the Colts to cover the spread, but the chances of them winning outright are about the same as Greg Oden playing goalie for the Timbers next year.




Clicky Web Analytics