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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on December 6, 2011 2:44 PM. The previous post in this blog was Feds fine PacifiCorp $3.9 million. The next post in this blog is Book review. Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

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Tuesday, December 6, 2011

I'm looking at the 'dogs, reflections of my mind

It's Tuesday afternoon, and time for this week's lineup in our charity pro football underdog game. It includes a few big boys:

16.5 INDIANAPOLIS at Baltimore
14 CLEVELAND at Pittsburgh (Thursday 5:20 p.m.)
11 OAKLAND at Green Bay
9 KANSAS CITY at New York Jets
7.5 WASHINGTON vs. New England
7 MINNESOTA at Detroit
6 BUFFALO at San Diego
3.5 TENNESSEE vs. New Orleans
3.5 CHICAGO at Denver
3.5 ARIZONA vs. San Francisco
3 CAROLINA vs. Atlanta
3 NEW YORK GIANTS at Dallas
3 HOUSTON at Cincinnati
1 JACKSONVILLE vs. Tampa Bay

No Eagles/Dolphins or Rams/Seahawks yet. Happy pickin', players!

UPDATE, 10:03 p.m.: Add this one:

3 PHILADELPHIA at Miami

Comments (5)

Oh man, there are some juicy ones in there.

BTW, I did a little analysis on which favorites consistently lost... and which dogs consistently won.

Interestingly, if a person had bet against Philadelphia every single week they were favored, they'd be leading the pack with 47.5 points! SEVEN TIMES they've lost when favored. Baltimore is next at 21 points over three loses.

As for the most generous 'dog, that would be Seattle. They've clocked 25.5 points by winning 5 times when the underdog.

*disclaimer - I used a different set of lines when doing my analysis, so points may not exactly match up with bojack lines.

Yep...Seattle surprised a lot of folks when they beat the NY Giants in NY, and that's probably a big chunk of the 25.5 points. Philly has been totally schizo by losing at home so frequently even though they looked strong on paper, and Baltimore dropped its focus a few times and unexpectedly lost to a few stinkers as well, hence the big points even though they are a pretty good team overall.

Mojo's "Best Bets," "Upset Special" & "Gamblers Corner" coming up on Saturday. Forget Cleveland at Pittsburgh tomorrow night --though will put analysis of Oakland through a cheesecloth, for good measure in recognition of high volume of action expected on that value-pick & #1 candidate for the "Upset Special."

Do the Colts recapture any magic on this return to Baltimore?

"Mojo's Best Bets"
The Freezing Fog, Pass the Egg Nog, Edition

"Best Bets"
(Last week: 0-2; overall 12-17)

HOUSTON (+3) at Cincinnati -- Despite the Bengals' top-rated defense and above-average offensive performances so far this year, led by their outstanding rookie QB Andy Dalton, Cincinnati has a horrible record against teams with winning records, and have faltered the past two weeks against strong opponents. Houston is a powerful defensive and offensive team, even with a backup now at QB. With their impressive one-two punch at RB, and striving to maintain their 2-game division lead over the dangerous Tennessee Titans, look for the Texans to take this one on the road in making a statement to the league, to the Titans, and to their anxious but hopeful fans.

CHICAGO (+3.5) at Denver -- The Bruins of the Midway will be prepared for Tebow & the triple option. The Broncos may try to air out some downfield to exploit the revolving safeties situation the Bears are forced to go with yet again, but Urlacher will have a big game, as will Julius Peppers who will try to get to Tebow early in the play development. Bears have a big special teams edge, too, with Hester & Gould. Denver has won five in a row. Sheesh. Bet against that streak.

Minus the Bear ~ Animal Backwards
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZ_Wc_DWUXY

"Upset Special"
(Last week 1-1; overall 3-11)

KANSAS CITY (+9) at NY Jets -- 2nd week in a row that the Chiefs are featured on the Upset Special, having won last week over the favored Bears in Chicago! This week, the Chiefs' defense rattles NY QB Mark "Boo-Boo" Sanchez, and KC QB Tyler Palko beats the Jets with his athleticism, scrambling, and throwing medium and short range passes on the run, bolstered with solid run game performances by the OL and RB Thomas Jones, a former Jet who is still loved in NYC. And, after this game, it'll be the Jets' big-mouth coach Rex Ryan's QB who's got "issues." There's side-action betting on whether Sanchez gets booed by his home crowd when he's introduced at the beginning of the game.

Don't Boo Sanchez by Kevin Kernan, New York Post
http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/jets/don_boo_sanchez_hONljB0xUfBvAPRTWOe6OO

"Gamblers Corner"

NY GIANTS (+3) at Dallas -- This is a tempting pick, but here you have two teams going in the opposite direction, performance-wise. The Giants are 1-4 in the last 5 games, and come into Dallas (where they do win now & then) on a 4 game losing streak. Meanwhile, Dallas has looked pretty good going 4-1. Dallas has extra motivation in knowing that a win over NY buries the Giants in the division race and probably seals their fate, putting them waaaay outside looking in for a wildcard playoff spot.

BUFFALO (+6) at San Diego -- The wheels have come after the Bills' super-charged start to this season, and they come rumbling in San Diego facing a Chargers team that is talented, healthy, and desperate. The key to this game will be the performances of the two QBs. If Rivers continues with his recovery and clicks in the first half, the Chargers will win going away.

MINNESOTA (+7) at Detroit -- The Lions won't even miss psycho Suh in handling the Vikings crumbling offensive squad missing any decent player at QB and without superstar RB Adrien Peterson; though if the spectacular Percy Harvin isn't suffering from one of his chronic and terrible migranes, the Vikes could possibly keep this close enough for a last-second kick to be the difference. A tough, tough pick. That's why it's here in the Gamblers Corner.

OAKLAND (+11) at Green Bay -- The Raiders won't be able to pull this one off with so many key guys on offense still hurting and missing this week's contest. Compound that with the fact that the Raiders currently have the NFL's 6th worst pass defense. Good night, nurse!

INDIANAPOLIS (+16.5) at Baltimore -- I wish. Don't you? If Dwight Freeney can get to Flacco, it might happen. Could be another one of those 9-6 games. But, then again, the Ravens might pass for 400 yards and 5 TDs against the poor Colts. I'd bet the Colts to cover the spread, but the chances of them winning outright are about the same as Greg Oden playing goalie for the Timbers next year.


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Lange, Pinot Gris 2015
Kiona, Lemberger 2014
Willamette Valley, Pinot Gris 2015
Aix, Rosé de Provence 2016
Marchigüe, Cabernet 2013
Inazío Irruzola, Getariako Txakolina Rosé 2015
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Cleto Charli, Lambrusco di Sorbara Secco, Vecchia Modena
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Edmunds St. John, Bone-Jolly Rosé 2016
Stoller, Pinot Noir Rosé 2016
Chehalem, Inox Chardonnay 2015
The Four Graces, Pinot Gris 2015
Gascón, Colosal Red 2013
Cardwell Hill, Pinot Gris 2015
L'Ecole No. 41, Merlot 2013
Della Terra, Anonymus
Willamette Valley, Dijon Clone Chardonnay 2013
Wraith, Cabernet, Eidolon Estate 2012
Januik, Red 2015
Tomassi, Valpolicella, Rafaél, 2014
Sharecropper's Pinot Noir 2013
Helix, Pomatia Red Blend 2013
La Espera, Cabernet 2011
Campo Viejo, Rioja Reserva 2011
Villa Antinori, Toscana 2013
Locations, Spanish Red Wine
Locations, Argentinian Red Wine
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Shatter, Grenache, Maury 2012
Argyle, Vintage Brut 2011
Abacela, Vintner's Blend #16 Abacela, Fiesta Tempranillo 2014
Benton Hill, Pinot Gris 2015
Primarius, Pinot Gris 2015
Januik, Merlot 2013
Napa Cellars, Cabernet 2013
J. Bookwalter, Protagonist 2012
LAN, Rioja Edicion Limitada 2011
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 2009
Denada Cellars, Cabernet, Maipo Valley 2014
Marchigüe, Cabernet, Colchagua Valley 2013
Oberon, Cabernet 2014
Hedges, Red Mountain 2012
Balboa, Rose of Grenache 2015
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Chateau Ste. Michelle, Pinot Gris 2014
Conn Creek, Cabernet, Napa 2012
Conn Creek, Cabernet, Napa 2013
Villa Maria, Sauvignon Blanc 2015
G3, Cabernet 2013
Chateau Smith, Cabernet, Washington State 2014
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Ca' del Baio Barbaresco Valgrande 2012
Goodfellow, Reserve Pinot Gris, Clover 2014
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Wente, Cabernet, Charles Wetmore 2011
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King Estate, Pinot Gris 2015
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La Vite Lucente, Toscana Red 2013
St. Francis, Cabernet, Sonoma 2013
Kendall-Jackson, Pinot Noir, California 2013
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Napa Valley 2013
Erath, Pinot Noir, Estate Selection 2012
Abbot's Table, Columbia Valley 2014
Intrinsic, Cabernet 2014
Oyster Bay, Pinot Noir 2010
Occhipinti, SP68 Bianco 2014
Layer Cake, Shiraz 2013
Desert Wind, Ruah 2011
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Dunham, Trautina 2012
RoxyAnn, Claret 2012
Del Ri, Claret 2012
Stoppa, Emilia, Red 2004
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The Occasional Book

Phil Stanford - Rose City Vice
Kenneth R. Feinberg - What is Life Worth?
Kent Haruf - Our Souls at Night
Peter Carey - True History of the Kelly Gang
Suzanne Collins - The Hunger Games
Amy Stewart - Girl Waits With Gun
Philip Roth - The Plot Against America
Norm Macdonald - Based on a True Story
Christopher Buckley - Boomsday
Ryan Holiday - The Obstacle is the Way
Ruth Sepetys - Between Shades of Gray
Richard Adams - Watership Down
Claire Vaye Watkins - Gold Fame Citrus
Markus Zusak - I am the Messenger
Anthony Doerr - All the Light We Cannot See
James Joyce - Dubliners
Cheryl Strayed - Torch
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Saul Bellow - Mister Sammler's Planet
Phil Stanford - White House Call Girl
John Kaplan & Jon R. Waltz - The Trial of Jack Ruby
Kent Haruf - Eventide
David Halberstam - Summer of '49
Norman Mailer - The Naked and the Dead
Maria Dermoȗt - The Ten Thousand Things
William Faulkner - As I Lay Dying
Markus Zusak - The Book Thief
Christopher Buckley - Thank You for Smoking
William Shakespeare - Othello
Joseph Conrad - Heart of Darkness
Bill Bryson - A Short History of Nearly Everything
Cheryl Strayed - Tiny Beautiful Things
Sara Varon - Bake Sale
Stephen King - 11/22/63
Paul Goldstein - Errors and Omissions
Mark Twain - A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur's Court
Steve Martin - Born Standing Up: A Comic's Life
Beverly Cleary - A Girl from Yamhill, a Memoir
Kent Haruf - Plainsong
Hope Larson - A Wrinkle in Time, the Graphic Novel
Rudyard Kipling - Kim
Peter Ames Carlin - Bruce
Fran Cannon Slayton - When the Whistle Blows
Neil Young - Waging Heavy Peace
Mark Bego - Aretha Franklin, the Queen of Soul (2012 ed.)
Jenny Lawson - Let's Pretend This Never Happened
J.D. Salinger - Franny and Zooey
Charles Dickens - A Christmas Carol
Timothy Egan - The Big Burn
Deborah Eisenberg - Transactions in a Foreign Currency
Kurt Vonnegut Jr. - Slaughterhouse Five
Kathryn Lance - Pandora's Genes
Cheryl Strayed - Wild
Fyodor Dostoyevsky - The Brothers Karamazov
Jack London - The House of Pride, and Other Tales of Hawaii
Jack Walker - The Extraordinary Rendition of Vincent Dellamaria
Colum McCann - Let the Great World Spin
Niccolò Machiavelli - The Prince
Harper Lee - To Kill a Mockingbird
Emma McLaughlin & Nicola Kraus - The Nanny Diaries
Brian Selznick - The Invention of Hugo Cabret
Sharon Creech - Walk Two Moons
Keith Richards - Life
F. Sionil Jose - Dusk
Natalie Babbitt - Tuck Everlasting
Justin Halpern - S#*t My Dad Says
Mark Herrmann - The Curmudgeon's Guide to Practicing Law
Barry Glassner - The Gospel of Food
Phil Stanford - The Peyton-Allan Files
Jesse Katz - The Opposite Field
Evelyn Waugh - Brideshead Revisited
J.K. Rowling - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
David Sedaris - Holidays on Ice
Donald Miller - A Million Miles in a Thousand Years
Mitch Albom - Have a Little Faith
C.S. Lewis - The Magician's Nephew
F. Scott Fitzgerald - The Great Gatsby
William Shakespeare - A Midsummer Night's Dream
Ivan Doig - Bucking the Sun
Penda Diakité - I Lost My Tooth in Africa
Grace Lin - The Year of the Rat
Oscar Hijuelos - Mr. Ives' Christmas
Madeline L'Engle - A Wrinkle in Time
Steven Hart - The Last Three Miles
David Sedaris - Me Talk Pretty One Day
Karen Armstrong - The Spiral Staircase
Charles Larson - The Portland Murders
Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
Steven D. Stark - Meet the Beatles
Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
Rick Moody - Garden State
Jonathan Schwartz - All in Good Time
David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim
Anthony Holden - Big Deal
Robert J. Spitzer - The Spirit of Leadership
James McManus - Positively Fifth Street
Jeff Noon - Vurt

Road Work

Miles run year to date: 113
At this date last year: 155
Total run in 2016: 155
In 2015: 271
In 2014: 401
In 2013: 257
In 2012: 129
In 2011: 113
In 2010: 125
In 2009: 67
In 2008: 28
In 2007: 113
In 2006: 100
In 2005: 149
In 2004: 204
In 2003: 269


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