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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on December 6, 2011 2:44 PM. The previous post in this blog was Feds fine PacifiCorp $3.9 million. The next post in this blog is Book review. Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

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Tuesday, December 6, 2011

I'm looking at the 'dogs, reflections of my mind

It's Tuesday afternoon, and time for this week's lineup in our charity pro football underdog game. It includes a few big boys:

16.5 INDIANAPOLIS at Baltimore
14 CLEVELAND at Pittsburgh (Thursday 5:20 p.m.)
11 OAKLAND at Green Bay
9 KANSAS CITY at New York Jets
7.5 WASHINGTON vs. New England
7 MINNESOTA at Detroit
6 BUFFALO at San Diego
3.5 TENNESSEE vs. New Orleans
3.5 CHICAGO at Denver
3.5 ARIZONA vs. San Francisco
3 CAROLINA vs. Atlanta
3 NEW YORK GIANTS at Dallas
3 HOUSTON at Cincinnati
1 JACKSONVILLE vs. Tampa Bay

No Eagles/Dolphins or Rams/Seahawks yet. Happy pickin', players!

UPDATE, 10:03 p.m.: Add this one:

3 PHILADELPHIA at Miami

Comments (5)

Oh man, there are some juicy ones in there.

BTW, I did a little analysis on which favorites consistently lost... and which dogs consistently won.

Interestingly, if a person had bet against Philadelphia every single week they were favored, they'd be leading the pack with 47.5 points! SEVEN TIMES they've lost when favored. Baltimore is next at 21 points over three loses.

As for the most generous 'dog, that would be Seattle. They've clocked 25.5 points by winning 5 times when the underdog.

*disclaimer - I used a different set of lines when doing my analysis, so points may not exactly match up with bojack lines.

Yep...Seattle surprised a lot of folks when they beat the NY Giants in NY, and that's probably a big chunk of the 25.5 points. Philly has been totally schizo by losing at home so frequently even though they looked strong on paper, and Baltimore dropped its focus a few times and unexpectedly lost to a few stinkers as well, hence the big points even though they are a pretty good team overall.

Mojo's "Best Bets," "Upset Special" & "Gamblers Corner" coming up on Saturday. Forget Cleveland at Pittsburgh tomorrow night --though will put analysis of Oakland through a cheesecloth, for good measure in recognition of high volume of action expected on that value-pick & #1 candidate for the "Upset Special."

Do the Colts recapture any magic on this return to Baltimore?

"Mojo's Best Bets"
The Freezing Fog, Pass the Egg Nog, Edition

"Best Bets"
(Last week: 0-2; overall 12-17)

HOUSTON (+3) at Cincinnati -- Despite the Bengals' top-rated defense and above-average offensive performances so far this year, led by their outstanding rookie QB Andy Dalton, Cincinnati has a horrible record against teams with winning records, and have faltered the past two weeks against strong opponents. Houston is a powerful defensive and offensive team, even with a backup now at QB. With their impressive one-two punch at RB, and striving to maintain their 2-game division lead over the dangerous Tennessee Titans, look for the Texans to take this one on the road in making a statement to the league, to the Titans, and to their anxious but hopeful fans.

CHICAGO (+3.5) at Denver -- The Bruins of the Midway will be prepared for Tebow & the triple option. The Broncos may try to air out some downfield to exploit the revolving safeties situation the Bears are forced to go with yet again, but Urlacher will have a big game, as will Julius Peppers who will try to get to Tebow early in the play development. Bears have a big special teams edge, too, with Hester & Gould. Denver has won five in a row. Sheesh. Bet against that streak.

Minus the Bear ~ Animal Backwards
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZ_Wc_DWUXY

"Upset Special"
(Last week 1-1; overall 3-11)

KANSAS CITY (+9) at NY Jets -- 2nd week in a row that the Chiefs are featured on the Upset Special, having won last week over the favored Bears in Chicago! This week, the Chiefs' defense rattles NY QB Mark "Boo-Boo" Sanchez, and KC QB Tyler Palko beats the Jets with his athleticism, scrambling, and throwing medium and short range passes on the run, bolstered with solid run game performances by the OL and RB Thomas Jones, a former Jet who is still loved in NYC. And, after this game, it'll be the Jets' big-mouth coach Rex Ryan's QB who's got "issues." There's side-action betting on whether Sanchez gets booed by his home crowd when he's introduced at the beginning of the game.

Don't Boo Sanchez by Kevin Kernan, New York Post
http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/jets/don_boo_sanchez_hONljB0xUfBvAPRTWOe6OO

"Gamblers Corner"

NY GIANTS (+3) at Dallas -- This is a tempting pick, but here you have two teams going in the opposite direction, performance-wise. The Giants are 1-4 in the last 5 games, and come into Dallas (where they do win now & then) on a 4 game losing streak. Meanwhile, Dallas has looked pretty good going 4-1. Dallas has extra motivation in knowing that a win over NY buries the Giants in the division race and probably seals their fate, putting them waaaay outside looking in for a wildcard playoff spot.

BUFFALO (+6) at San Diego -- The wheels have come after the Bills' super-charged start to this season, and they come rumbling in San Diego facing a Chargers team that is talented, healthy, and desperate. The key to this game will be the performances of the two QBs. If Rivers continues with his recovery and clicks in the first half, the Chargers will win going away.

MINNESOTA (+7) at Detroit -- The Lions won't even miss psycho Suh in handling the Vikings crumbling offensive squad missing any decent player at QB and without superstar RB Adrien Peterson; though if the spectacular Percy Harvin isn't suffering from one of his chronic and terrible migranes, the Vikes could possibly keep this close enough for a last-second kick to be the difference. A tough, tough pick. That's why it's here in the Gamblers Corner.

OAKLAND (+11) at Green Bay -- The Raiders won't be able to pull this one off with so many key guys on offense still hurting and missing this week's contest. Compound that with the fact that the Raiders currently have the NFL's 6th worst pass defense. Good night, nurse!

INDIANAPOLIS (+16.5) at Baltimore -- I wish. Don't you? If Dwight Freeney can get to Flacco, it might happen. Could be another one of those 9-6 games. But, then again, the Ravens might pass for 400 yards and 5 TDs against the poor Colts. I'd bet the Colts to cover the spread, but the chances of them winning outright are about the same as Greg Oden playing goalie for the Timbers next year.


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In Vino Veritas

Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2009
Mauro Molino, Barbera d'Alba 2009
Garda Chiaretto Rose
Columbia Crest, Two Vines Vineyard 10 White
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Pinot Gris, Columbia Valley 2009
L'Hortus, Rose de Saignee 2010
Maculan, Pino & Toi 2008
McKinley Springs, Bombing Range Red 2008
Trader Joe's Pinot Gris 2009
Montes Alpha, Cabernet 2007
Gran Sasso, Sangiovese, Terre di Chieti 2009
Garda, Classico Chiaretto Rose
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 1999
Picos del Montgo, Tempranillo 2008
Chateau de Montmirail, Vacqueyras 2008
La Granja 360, Syrah 2009
Montgras, Carmenere Reserva 2009
Lange, Pinot Gris 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Cabernet 2008
Kirkland, Pinot Grigio 2010
Trader Joe's Coastal Syrah 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Merlot 2008
Trader Joe's Coastal Chardonnay 2009
Vieux Papes Red
Domaine de l'Aujardiere, Chardonnay 2009
Santa Rita, Cabernet, Medalla Real 2007
Penfold's, Koonunga Hill Shiraz Cabernet 2008
Guild, Red, Lot #02 2008
Dievole, Dievolino Sangiovese 2008
Laforet, Burgogne Chardonnay 2009
Columbia Winery, Merlot 2007
Bonterra, Cabernet 2008
Elk Cove, Pinot Gris 2009
Maquis Lien 2006
Scott Paul, Pinot Noir, Le Paulee 2007
Cameron, Chardonnay
B.R. Cohn, Cabernet, Silver Label 2006
Graffigna, Cabernet 2005
Palo Alto, Reserve Red 2008
Menguante, Garnacha 2008
Lange, Pinot Gris 2009
Felsina Berardenga, Vin Santo 1997
Anne Amie, Pinot Gris 2009
McKinley Springs, Bombing Ramge Red 2007
Vieux Papes Red
Dionysius Chardonnay 2009
Haden Fig, Pinot Noir 2009
Vega Montan, Mencia 2008
Chateau la Vernede, Coteaux du Languedoc 2007
Mount Defiance, Hellfire (White) 2008
Root: 1, Cabernet 2008
Columbia Crest, Two Vines Pinot Grigio 2009
Columbia Crest, Two Vines, Vineyard 10 White, 2008
Columbia Crest, Two Vines, Vineyard 10 Rose, 2007
Abacela, Grenache Rose 2009
Avia Cabernet 2004
Lemelson Pinot Noir, Thea's Selection 2007
Chateau de la Roulerie, Rose d'Anjou 2009
Casal Garcia, Vinho Verde Rose
La Ferme Julien, Rose 2008
Cana's Feast, Bricco Red, 2006
Hogue, Genesis Merlot, 2008
Owen Roe, Sharecropper's Cabernet, 2008
Kim Crawford, Unoaked Chardonnay 2008
J. Scott, Pinot Noir 2008
Edmunds St. John, White, Heart of Gold 2008
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2006
Stevenot, Cabernet, Sierra Foothills, "Stanford" 2000
Portuga, Vinho Rose 2009
Taylor Fladgate, First Estate Reserve Porto
Franciscan, Cabernet, Napa 2006
Chaparral de Vega Sindoa, Garnacha 2008
Quinta da Aveleda, Vinho Verde 2008
St. Francis, Chardonnay Sonoma 2008
E. Guigal, Cotes du Rhone Blanc, 2007
Edmunds St. John, Bone-Jolly, Gamay Noir 2008
St. Innocent, Pinot Noir 2006
Jigsaw, Pinot Noir 2007
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Merlot, Indian Wells 2007
Charles Shaw, Chardonnay 2008
Edmunds St. John, Bone-Jolly, Gamay Rosé 2009
Cameron, Willamette Valley Chardonnay
Il Valore, Sangiovese, Giovane, Puglia 2008
Duck Pond, Chardonnay, Wahluke Slope 2007
Kim Crawford, Marlborough Pinot Noir 2008
Domaine du Pesquier, Cotes du Rhone 2005
Cantina Zaccagnini, Montepulciano d'Abruzzo 2006
Domaine Matrot, Chardonnay, Bourgogne 2007
David Hill, Oregon Sparkling Wine, Brut
Chandler Reach, Monte Regalo 2006
Elk Cove, Pinot Gris 2008
Kirkland, Columbia Valley Merlot 2008
D'Aragon, Old Vine Garnacha 2008
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2005
Pavin & Riley, Merlot 2006
David Hill, Estate Pinot Noir, Barrel Select 2006
Castle Rock, Paso Robles Cabernet 2006
Magnificent, Cabernet, Steak House 2008
Conundrum 2008
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 1998
Saint Cosme, Cotes-du-Rhone 2007
La Granja, Tempranillo 360, 2008
Santa Rita, Mendalla Real Cabernet 2006
Columbia Crest, Grand Estates Merlot 2006
Andezon, Cotes-du-Rhone 2007
Collegiata, Montepulciano d'Abruzzo
Troon, Druid's Fluid 2008
La Granja, Tempranillo 2008
Monte Antico, Toscana 2006
Vieux Papes, Blanc de Blancs

The Occasional Book

Jack London - The House of Pride, and Other Tales of Hawaii
Jack Walker - The Extraordinary Rendition of Vincent Dellamaria
Colum McCann - Let the Great World Spin
Niccolò Machiavelli - The Prince
Harper Lee - To Kill a Mockingbird
Emma McLaughlin & Nicola Kraus - The Nanny Diaries
Brian Selznick - The Invention of Hugo Cabret
Sharon Creech - Walk Two Moons
Keith Richards - Life
F. Sionil Jose - Dusk
Natalie Babbitt - Tuck Everlasting
Justin Halpern - S#*t My Dad Says
Mark Herrmann - The Curmudgeon's Guide to Practicing Law
Barry Glassner - The Gospel of Food
Phil Stanford - The Peyton-Allan Files
Jesse Katz - The Opposite Field
Evelyn Waugh - Brideshead Revisited
J.K. Rowling - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
David Sedaris - Holidays on Ice
Donald Miller - A Million Miles in a Thousand Years
Mitch Albom - Have a Little Faith
C.S. Lewis - The Magician's Nephew
F. Scott Fitzgerald - The Great Gatsby
William Shakespeare - A Midsummer Night's Dream
Ivan Doig - Bucking the Sun
Penda Diakité - I Lost My Tooth in Africa
Grace Lin - The Year of the Rat
Oscar Hijuelos - Mr. Ives' Christmas
Madeline L'Engle - A Wrinkle in Time
Steven Hart - The Last Three Miles
David Sedaris - Me Talk Pretty One Day
Karen Armstrong - The Spiral Staircase
Charles Larson - The Portland Murders
Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
Steven D. Stark - Meet the Beatles
Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
Rick Moody - Garden State
Jonathan Schwartz - All in Good Time
David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim
Anthony Holden - Big Deal
Robert J. Spitzer - The Spirit of Leadership
James McManus - Positively Fifth Street
Jeff Noon - Vurt

Road Work

Miles run year to date: 54
At this date last year: 50
Total run in 2011: 113
In 2010: 125
In 2009: 67
In 2008: 28
In 2007: 113
In 2006: 100
In 2005: 149
In 2004: 204
In 2003: 269


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