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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on November 1, 2011 8:21 PM. The previous post in this blog was WW asks, "Who else is exploiting Occupy Portland?". The next post in this blog is Willamette Week hacked again?. Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.



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Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Papa's got a brand new bag (of underdogs)

Here are the lines for this week's Big Daddies of the NFL:

11.5 SEATTLE at Dallas
11 CLEVELAND at Houston
8.5 NEW YORK GIANTS at New England
8 TAMPA BAY at New Orleans
8 DENVER at Oakland
8 CHICAGO at Philadelphia
7 INDIANAPOLIS vs. Atlanta
5.5 SAN DIEGO vs. Green Bay
4.5 MIAMI at Kansas City
3.5 WASHINGTON vs. San Francisco
3 CINCINNATI at Tennessee
3 BALTIMORE at Pittsburgh
1.5 NEW YORK JETS at Buffalo

Only St.Louis/Arizona remains to be set. Two home 'dogs, lots of substantial point amounts to be earned. Players in our charity 'dognostication game, have at it. Your picks are due by 10 a.m. Pacific Standard Time Sunday.

UPDATE, 11/2, 11:29 p.m.: The straggler:

3 ST. LOUIS at Arizona

Comments (8)

Hmmm. The Colts & Giants games appear to have tempting probabilities. Analysis upcoming Saturday in "Mojo's Best Bets" (last week, 2-1; "upset special" missed the Rams' surprise over the Saints, just like the rest of the Occupied World did).

The Sunday night game in The Hospital City ("Steel City" no longer as manufacturing continues to flee the U.S.) should be a spectacular contest, even with "only" 3pts in play there -- might drop to 2.5 in Vegas by kickoff, with so many Pittsburgh linebackers (3 of 4 starters) injured. May see a 4-3 or 3-2-6 defense much of the game by the Steelers.

Going to take a hard look at the Chargers-Packers game, too. SD had a haunting freak turnover at the end of regulation in KC on Halloween night. They're ready to make their annual dash into the playoffs, and the odds are against the Packers going undefeated.

a haunting freak turnover

The NFL is fixed.

How the Charger/GB line is ONLY 5.5 is beyond me. And I say that as a Chargers fan.

Maybe Jack knows why, Larry. Hey, my dad was certain that the NFL was fixed. Me? I'm just a composter. You can tell me by the way I walk.

Although the Pats seldom lose back-to-back, here are some reasons the 8.5 payoff for a Giants' win might be seriously considered:

Notice the special mention of former Duck Patrick Chung -- who desperately needs help in the secondary -- and the disappointment former Beav Chad Ochocinco has become.

The Steelers are not as good as they appeared last Sunday; the Pats, who seemed to be improving with each contest prior to the bye, do not have enough offensive weapons to nullify their grave defensive shortcomings. They did show strength protecting the red zone last Sunday, keeping the score closer than the game was, with Pittsburgh commanding two-thirds of the hour.

Chung's become one of the dirtiest secondary players in the NFL. Maybe it's out of frustration with Belichick.

Mojo's Best Bets
"Turn back the clock" Edition

"Best Bets"
(Last week: 2-1; to date: 10-10)

CINCINNATI (+3) at Tennessee -- With a top-ranked defense (#2 rushing; #9 passing; #1 total defense) and an efficient, fully weaponized steady offense QB'd by the the second-best offensive rookie in the NFL this year, Andy Dalton, the Bengals will come into Nashville and take this game away from an inconsistent Titans team that has problems in understanding itself. Even if Titans Coach Jeff Fisher, Offensive Coordinator Chris Palmer, and star RB finally gets their heads on straight and the Titans rush the football adequately, the Bengals defense will prevent many touchdowns while the Bengals offense shows them how to do it.

The Bengals are intent on winning the AFC North division and can situate themselves well by winning this one while the Ravens and the Steelers beat each others' brains out in the prime-time Sunday night game on NBC (Hey, don't miss that one! Steelers will win it, not turning over the ball 7 times like they did in handing the Ravens Game 1).

ST. LOUIS (+3) at Arizona -- The Cardinals are in a terrible tailspin and will be starting Jack Skelton at QB due to the painful turf toe injury to Kolb. Skelton has proven to be one of the worst starting QBs in NFL history, Tim Tebow nothwithstanding. The Rams will run the big man, Oregon State's great RB Steven Jackson, and may have talented QB Sam Bradford for this game -- but if not, A.J. Feeley should be able to guide the Rams to their second victory in a row. St. Louis' defense was the key to their win over the high-octane offense of New Orleans. They'll be pumped up to rack up another one, rattling Skelton's bones. His healthy backup is third-stringer Rich Bartel, who's thrown a total of 18 passes in the NFL over 3.5 years. His QB rating this year barely registers at 5.6. By comparison, Tebow's horrorshow rates at 75.1 this year. Top dog is Green Bay's Aaron Rogers at 125.7.

"Upset Special"
(Last week 0-1; to date: 1-6 -- hey, I'm gettin' really upset!)

NY GIANTS (+8.5) at New England -- Even though the Giants' #1 RB Ahmad Bradshaw is out for this game, it's the Patriot's horrible pass defense that will continue to be their undoing, from their pathetic pass rush to their tissue paper linebacker and secondary pass coverage. NY QB Manning will be missing WR Hakeem Nicks a bit, but will utilize his TEs and medium pass routes, mixed in with smart run calls, to keep the ball moving and away from Patriot's offense. NY Giants pass rush and run-stuffing will continue to make Sundays this year a lot less fun for Patriots QB Tom Brady and Coach Bill Belichick. The key is likely to be how the Giants defense deals with the Brady connections to star WR Wes Welker, which the Steelers stifled with a bump & run, man to man smothering of Welker, holding him to 37 yards total.

With this a rematch of that great Super Bowl XLII win by the Giants ( Here's the last minute winning drive, starting with David Tyree's fantastic catch ~ ), this is the afternoon game to watch this week!

Giants’ Secondary Faces Test in Patriots’ Passing
Published: November 4, 2011

Fun Facts:

Dec. 29, 2007- The Patriots defeat the Giants in a thrilling game, 38-35, to cap off the first 16-0 regular season in NFL history.

February 3, 2008- Super Bowl XLII in Glendale, Ariz. The Giants 17-14 win snatched away the Patriots' perfect season (to the delight of the 1972 Miami Dolphins team) and captured the NFL Championship.

"Gamblers Corner"

INDIANAPOLIS (+7) vs Atlanta -- This one is the most likely "maybe" of the rest of this field. The Colts have only lost to the Falcons once, and this game is in the noisy dome at home for Indy. Superb Colts running back Addai and impact defensive player, LB Angerer, will be back and be difference-makers. How much difference? Well, maybe enough. With the Falcons relying on a ball-control and dink & dunk offense, with skilled QB Ryan and superstar RB Turner, the key to a Colts win will be holding Atlanta to field goals in the red zone and forcing turnovers, plus not making more than 1 of their own. A kick return could provide the winning score here.

TAMPA BAY (+8) at New Orleans -- Bucs' QB Josh Freeman's thumb injury on his throwing hand combined with their anemic rushing game dooms Tampa Bay to a long day in three hours in the Big Easy. A foregone conclusion when you also factor in the Saints' anger at losing to the winless Rams last week. Saints' super QB Drew Brees is not going to throw any interceptions in this game, their downfall in previous losses.

CHICAGO (+8) at Philadelphia -- Ah, well, maybe. I doubt it too much. The Eagles will be at home, and have so many weapons on offense, while all that Chicago has is a great running back who accounts for 46% of the Bears' total offense. Bears defense not what it was, even just a year ago. Watch the show that'll be put on by Eagle's QB Michael Vick and RB LaSean "Shady" McCoy.

Carry On - Keep running, Shady, but don't fumble

Maybe the Bears will get lucky and cause enough turnovers to stop the Eagles and pull off this upset in a very hostile venue.

"I Saw Mommy Dissing Santa Claus"

SEATTLE (+11.5) at Dallas -- I'd pick this game only if I was at or near the bottom of the rankings in this underdog pool at this midway point in the regular season. The point spreads in the playoffs are rarely more than 7 pts. and after the first round, hardly ever more than 4. Dallas, while talented and packed with stars on offense and defense, are a bunch of head cases on a team owned by the biggest narcissistic jerk southwest of Donald Trump: Jerry "Make me another old-fashioned, will ya?" Jones.

Addendum to the "Gamblers Corner" for the somewhat tantalizing SAN DIEGO (+5.5) vs Green Bay game:

While it would be a great story if Chargers QB Philip Rivers redeemed himself from that boneheaded fumbled snap in primetime on Monday night in losing to the underdog Chiefs, San Diego doesn't have enough of a running game to win. Lack of a clutch defense also leaves the Chargers short. The '72 Miami Dolphins will officially begin their 2011 watch over their historic undefeated performance after Green Bay leaves San Diego as winners Sunday night.


As a lawyer/blogger, I get
to be a member of:

In Vino Veritas

Louis Jadot, Pouilly-Fuissé 2011
Trader Joe's, Grower's Reserve Pinot Noir 2012
Zenato, Lugana San Benedetto 2012
Vintjs, Cabernet 2010
14 Hands, Hot to Trot White 2012
Rainstorm, Oregon Pinot Gris 2012
Silver Palm, North Coast Cabernet 2011
Andrew Rich, Gewurtztraminer 2008
Rodney Strong, Charlotte's Home Sauvignon Blanc 2012
Canoe Ridge, Pinot Gris, Expedition 2012
Edmunds St. John, Bone-Jolly Gamay Noir Rose 2012
Dark Horse, Big Red Blend No. 01A
Elk Cove, Pinot Noir Rose 2012
Fletcher, Shiraz 2010
Picollo, Gavi 2011
Domaine Eugene Carrel, Jongieux 2012
Eyrie, Pinot Blanc 2010
Atticus, Pinot Noir 2010
Walter Scott, Pinot Noir, Holstein 2011
Shingleback, Cabernet, Davey Estate 2010
Coppola, Sofia Rose 2012
Joel Gott, 851 Cabernet 2010
Pol Roget Reserve Sparkling Wine
Mount Eden Chardonnay, Santa Cruz Mountains 2009
Rombauer Chardonnay, Napa Valley 2011
Beringer, Chardonnay, Napa Reserve 2011
Kim Crawford, Sauvignon Blanc 2011
Schloss Vollrads, Spaetlese Rheingau 2010
Belle Glos, Pinot Noir, Clark & Telephone 2010
WillaKenzie, Pinot Noir, Estate Cuvee 2010
Blackbird Vineyards, Arise, Red 2010
Chauteau de Beaucastel, Chateauneuf-du-Pape 2005
Northstar, Merlot 2008
Feather, Cabernet 2007
Silver Oak, Cabernet, Alexander Valley 2002
Silver Oak, Cabernet, Napa Valley 2002
Trader Joe's, Chardonnay, Grower's Reserve 2012
Silver Palm, Cabernet, North Coast 2010
Shingleback, Cabernet, Davey Estate 2010
E. Guigal, Cotes du Rhone 2009
Santa Margherita, Pinot Grigio 2011
Alamos, Cabernet 2011
Cousino Macul, Cabernet, Anitguas Reservas 2009
Dreaming Tree Cabernet 2010
1967, Toscana 2009
Charamba, Douro 2008
Horse Heaven Hills, Cabernet 2010
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills Pinot Grigio 2011
Avignonesi, Montepulciano 2004
Lorelle, Willamette Valley Pinot Noir 2011
Villa Antinori, Toscana 2007
Mercedes Eguren, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
Lorelle, Columbia Valley Cabernet 2011
Purple Moon, Merlot 2011
Purple Moon, Chardonnnay 2011
Horse Heaven Hills, Cabernet 2010
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills Pinot Grigio 2011
Avignonesi, Montepulciano 2004
Lorelle, Willamette Valley Pinot Noir 2011
Villa Antinori, Toscana 2007
Mercedes Eguren, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
Lorelle, Columbia Valley Cabernet 2011
Purple Moon, Merlot 2011
Purple Moon, Chardonnnay 2011
Abacela, Vintner's Blend No. 12
Opula Red Blend 2010
Liberte, Pinot Noir 2010
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Indian Wells Red Blend 2010
Woodbridge, Chardonnay 2011
King Estate, Pinot Noir 2011
Famille Perrin, Cotes du Rhone Villages 2010
Columbia Crest, Les Chevaux Red 2010
14 Hands, Hot to Trot White Blend
Familia Bianchi, Malbec 2009
Terrapin Cellars, Pinot Gris 2011
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2009
Campo Viejo, Rioja, Termpranillo 2010
Ravenswood, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2010
Waterbrook, Reserve Merlot 2009
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills, Pinot Grigio 2011
Tarantas, Rose
Chateau Lajarre, Bordeaux 2009
La Vielle Ferme, Rose 2011
Benvolio, Pinot Grigio 2011
Nobilo Icon, Pinot Noir 2009
Lello, Douro Tinto 2009
Quinson Fils, Cotes de Provence Rose 2011
Anindor, Pinot Gris 2010
Buenas Ondas, Syrah Rose 2010
Les Fiefs d'Anglars, Malbec 2009
14 Hands, Pinot Gris 2011
Conundrum 2012
Condes de Albarei, Albariño 2011
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2007
Penelope Sanchez, Garnacha Syrah 2010
Canoe Ridge, Merlot 2007
Atalaya do Mar, Godello 2010
Vega Montan, Mencia
Benvolio, Pinot Grigio
Nobilo Icon, Pinot Noir, Marlborough 2009

The Occasional Book

Maria Dermoȗt - The Ten Thousand Things
William Faulkner - As I Lay Dying
Markus Zusak - The Book Thief
Christopher Buckley - Thank You for Smoking
William Shakespeare - Othello
Joseph Conrad - Heart of Darkness
Bill Bryson - A Short History of Nearly Everything
Cheryl Strayed - Tiny Beautiful Things
Sara Varon - Bake Sale
Stephen King - 11/22/63
Paul Goldstein - Errors and Omissions
Mark Twain - A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur's Court
Steve Martin - Born Standing Up: A Comic's Life
Beverly Cleary - A Girl from Yamhill, a Memoir
Kent Haruf - Plainsong
Hope Larson - A Wrinkle in Time, the Graphic Novel
Rudyard Kipling - Kim
Peter Ames Carlin - Bruce
Fran Cannon Slayton - When the Whistle Blows
Neil Young - Waging Heavy Peace
Mark Bego - Aretha Franklin, the Queen of Soul (2012 ed.)
Jenny Lawson - Let's Pretend This Never Happened
J.D. Salinger - Franny and Zooey
Charles Dickens - A Christmas Carol
Timothy Egan - The Big Burn
Deborah Eisenberg - Transactions in a Foreign Currency
Kurt Vonnegut Jr. - Slaughterhouse Five
Kathryn Lance - Pandora's Genes
Cheryl Strayed - Wild
Fyodor Dostoyevsky - The Brothers Karamazov
Jack London - The House of Pride, and Other Tales of Hawaii
Jack Walker - The Extraordinary Rendition of Vincent Dellamaria
Colum McCann - Let the Great World Spin
Niccolò Machiavelli - The Prince
Harper Lee - To Kill a Mockingbird
Emma McLaughlin & Nicola Kraus - The Nanny Diaries
Brian Selznick - The Invention of Hugo Cabret
Sharon Creech - Walk Two Moons
Keith Richards - Life
F. Sionil Jose - Dusk
Natalie Babbitt - Tuck Everlasting
Justin Halpern - S#*t My Dad Says
Mark Herrmann - The Curmudgeon's Guide to Practicing Law
Barry Glassner - The Gospel of Food
Phil Stanford - The Peyton-Allan Files
Jesse Katz - The Opposite Field
Evelyn Waugh - Brideshead Revisited
J.K. Rowling - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
David Sedaris - Holidays on Ice
Donald Miller - A Million Miles in a Thousand Years
Mitch Albom - Have a Little Faith
C.S. Lewis - The Magician's Nephew
F. Scott Fitzgerald - The Great Gatsby
William Shakespeare - A Midsummer Night's Dream
Ivan Doig - Bucking the Sun
Penda Diakité - I Lost My Tooth in Africa
Grace Lin - The Year of the Rat
Oscar Hijuelos - Mr. Ives' Christmas
Madeline L'Engle - A Wrinkle in Time
Steven Hart - The Last Three Miles
David Sedaris - Me Talk Pretty One Day
Karen Armstrong - The Spiral Staircase
Charles Larson - The Portland Murders
Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
Steven D. Stark - Meet the Beatles
Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
Rick Moody - Garden State
Jonathan Schwartz - All in Good Time
David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim
Anthony Holden - Big Deal
Robert J. Spitzer - The Spirit of Leadership
James McManus - Positively Fifth Street
Jeff Noon - Vurt

Road Work

Miles run year to date: 115
At this date last year: 21
Total run in 2013: 257
In 2012: 129
In 2011: 113
In 2010: 125
In 2009: 67
In 2008: 28
In 2007: 113
In 2006: 100
In 2005: 149
In 2004: 204
In 2003: 269

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