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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on November 1, 2011 8:21 PM. The previous post in this blog was WW asks, "Who else is exploiting Occupy Portland?". The next post in this blog is Willamette Week hacked again?. Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

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Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Papa's got a brand new bag (of underdogs)

Here are the lines for this week's Big Daddies of the NFL:

11.5 SEATTLE at Dallas
11 CLEVELAND at Houston
8.5 NEW YORK GIANTS at New England
8 TAMPA BAY at New Orleans
8 DENVER at Oakland
8 CHICAGO at Philadelphia
7 INDIANAPOLIS vs. Atlanta
5.5 SAN DIEGO vs. Green Bay
4.5 MIAMI at Kansas City
3.5 WASHINGTON vs. San Francisco
3 CINCINNATI at Tennessee
3 BALTIMORE at Pittsburgh
1.5 NEW YORK JETS at Buffalo

Only St.Louis/Arizona remains to be set. Two home 'dogs, lots of substantial point amounts to be earned. Players in our charity 'dognostication game, have at it. Your picks are due by 10 a.m. Pacific Standard Time Sunday.

UPDATE, 11/2, 11:29 p.m.: The straggler:

3 ST. LOUIS at Arizona

Comments (8)

Hmmm. The Colts & Giants games appear to have tempting probabilities. Analysis upcoming Saturday in "Mojo's Best Bets" (last week, 2-1; "upset special" missed the Rams' surprise over the Saints, just like the rest of the Occupied World did).

The Sunday night game in The Hospital City ("Steel City" no longer as manufacturing continues to flee the U.S.) should be a spectacular contest, even with "only" 3pts in play there -- might drop to 2.5 in Vegas by kickoff, with so many Pittsburgh linebackers (3 of 4 starters) injured. May see a 4-3 or 3-2-6 defense much of the game by the Steelers.

Going to take a hard look at the Chargers-Packers game, too. SD had a haunting freak turnover at the end of regulation in KC on Halloween night. They're ready to make their annual dash into the playoffs, and the odds are against the Packers going undefeated.

a haunting freak turnover

The NFL is fixed.

How the Charger/GB line is ONLY 5.5 is beyond me. And I say that as a Chargers fan.

Maybe Jack knows why, Larry. Hey, my dad was certain that the NFL was fixed. Me? I'm just a composter. You can tell me by the way I walk.

Although the Pats seldom lose back-to-back, here are some reasons the 8.5 payoff for a Giants' win might be seriously considered:
http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/gallery/2011/patriots_fiveweaknesses/

Notice the special mention of former Duck Patrick Chung -- who desperately needs help in the secondary -- and the disappointment former Beav Chad Ochocinco has become.

The Steelers are not as good as they appeared last Sunday; the Pats, who seemed to be improving with each contest prior to the bye, do not have enough offensive weapons to nullify their grave defensive shortcomings. They did show strength protecting the red zone last Sunday, keeping the score closer than the game was, with Pittsburgh commanding two-thirds of the hour.

Chung's become one of the dirtiest secondary players in the NFL. Maybe it's out of frustration with Belichick.

Mojo's Best Bets
"Turn back the clock" Edition

"Best Bets"
(Last week: 2-1; to date: 10-10)

CINCINNATI (+3) at Tennessee -- With a top-ranked defense (#2 rushing; #9 passing; #1 total defense) and an efficient, fully weaponized steady offense QB'd by the the second-best offensive rookie in the NFL this year, Andy Dalton, the Bengals will come into Nashville and take this game away from an inconsistent Titans team that has problems in understanding itself. Even if Titans Coach Jeff Fisher, Offensive Coordinator Chris Palmer, and star RB finally gets their heads on straight and the Titans rush the football adequately, the Bengals defense will prevent many touchdowns while the Bengals offense shows them how to do it.

The Bengals are intent on winning the AFC North division and can situate themselves well by winning this one while the Ravens and the Steelers beat each others' brains out in the prime-time Sunday night game on NBC (Hey, don't miss that one! Steelers will win it, not turning over the ball 7 times like they did in handing the Ravens Game 1).

ST. LOUIS (+3) at Arizona -- The Cardinals are in a terrible tailspin and will be starting Jack Skelton at QB due to the painful turf toe injury to Kolb. Skelton has proven to be one of the worst starting QBs in NFL history, Tim Tebow nothwithstanding. The Rams will run the big man, Oregon State's great RB Steven Jackson, and may have talented QB Sam Bradford for this game -- but if not, A.J. Feeley should be able to guide the Rams to their second victory in a row. St. Louis' defense was the key to their win over the high-octane offense of New Orleans. They'll be pumped up to rack up another one, rattling Skelton's bones. His healthy backup is third-stringer Rich Bartel, who's thrown a total of 18 passes in the NFL over 3.5 years. His QB rating this year barely registers at 5.6. By comparison, Tebow's horrorshow rates at 75.1 this year. Top dog is Green Bay's Aaron Rogers at 125.7.


"Upset Special"
(Last week 0-1; to date: 1-6 -- hey, I'm gettin' really upset!)

NY GIANTS (+8.5) at New England -- Even though the Giants' #1 RB Ahmad Bradshaw is out for this game, it's the Patriot's horrible pass defense that will continue to be their undoing, from their pathetic pass rush to their tissue paper linebacker and secondary pass coverage. NY QB Manning will be missing WR Hakeem Nicks a bit, but will utilize his TEs and medium pass routes, mixed in with smart run calls, to keep the ball moving and away from Patriot's offense. NY Giants pass rush and run-stuffing will continue to make Sundays this year a lot less fun for Patriots QB Tom Brady and Coach Bill Belichick. The key is likely to be how the Giants defense deals with the Brady connections to star WR Wes Welker, which the Steelers stifled with a bump & run, man to man smothering of Welker, holding him to 37 yards total.

With this a rematch of that great Super Bowl XLII win by the Giants ( Here's the last minute winning drive, starting with David Tyree's fantastic catch ~ http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7163359736280137619 ), this is the afternoon game to watch this week!

Giants’ Secondary Faces Test in Patriots’ Passing
By MARK VIERA
Published: November 4, 2011
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/05/sports/football/giants-defense-faces-test-in-patriots-passing.html

Fun Facts:

Dec. 29, 2007- The Patriots defeat the Giants in a thrilling game, 38-35, to cap off the first 16-0 regular season in NFL history.

February 3, 2008- Super Bowl XLII in Glendale, Ariz. The Giants 17-14 win snatched away the Patriots' perfect season (to the delight of the 1972 Miami Dolphins team) and captured the NFL Championship.

"Gamblers Corner"

INDIANAPOLIS (+7) vs Atlanta -- This one is the most likely "maybe" of the rest of this field. The Colts have only lost to the Falcons once, and this game is in the noisy dome at home for Indy. Superb Colts running back Addai and impact defensive player, LB Angerer, will be back and be difference-makers. How much difference? Well, maybe enough. With the Falcons relying on a ball-control and dink & dunk offense, with skilled QB Ryan and superstar RB Turner, the key to a Colts win will be holding Atlanta to field goals in the red zone and forcing turnovers, plus not making more than 1 of their own. A kick return could provide the winning score here.

TAMPA BAY (+8) at New Orleans -- Bucs' QB Josh Freeman's thumb injury on his throwing hand combined with their anemic rushing game dooms Tampa Bay to a long day in three hours in the Big Easy. A foregone conclusion when you also factor in the Saints' anger at losing to the winless Rams last week. Saints' super QB Drew Brees is not going to throw any interceptions in this game, their downfall in previous losses.

CHICAGO (+8) at Philadelphia -- Ah, well, maybe. I doubt it too much. The Eagles will be at home, and have so many weapons on offense, while all that Chicago has is a great running back who accounts for 46% of the Bears' total offense. Bears defense not what it was, even just a year ago. Watch the show that'll be put on by Eagle's QB Michael Vick and RB LaSean "Shady" McCoy.

Carry On - Keep running, Shady, but don't fumble
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/eagles/20111104_Carry_on__Shady__but_dont_fumble.html

Maybe the Bears will get lucky and cause enough turnovers to stop the Eagles and pull off this upset in a very hostile venue.

"I Saw Mommy Dissing Santa Claus"
http://www.snopes.com/holidays/christmas/santa/philadelphia.asp

SEATTLE (+11.5) at Dallas -- I'd pick this game only if I was at or near the bottom of the rankings in this underdog pool at this midway point in the regular season. The point spreads in the playoffs are rarely more than 7 pts. and after the first round, hardly ever more than 4. Dallas, while talented and packed with stars on offense and defense, are a bunch of head cases on a team owned by the biggest narcissistic jerk southwest of Donald Trump: Jerry "Make me another old-fashioned, will ya?" Jones.

Addendum to the "Gamblers Corner" for the somewhat tantalizing SAN DIEGO (+5.5) vs Green Bay game:

While it would be a great story if Chargers QB Philip Rivers redeemed himself from that boneheaded fumbled snap in primetime on Monday night in losing to the underdog Chiefs, San Diego doesn't have enough of a running game to win. Lack of a clutch defense also leaves the Chargers short. The '72 Miami Dolphins will officially begin their 2011 watch over their historic undefeated performance after Green Bay leaves San Diego as winners Sunday night.


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In Vino Veritas

Lange, Pinot Gris 2015
Kiona, Lemberger 2014
Willamette Valley, Pinot Gris 2015
Aix, Rosé de Provence 2016
Marchigüe, Cabernet 2013
Inazío Irruzola, Getariako Txakolina Rosé 2015
Maso Canali, Pinot Grigio 2015
Campo Viejo, Rioja Reserva 2011
Kirkland, Côtes de Provence Rosé 2016
Cantele, Salice Salentino Reserva 2013
Whispering Angel, Côtes de Provence Rosé 2013
Avissi, Prosecco
Cleto Charli, Lambrusco di Sorbara Secco, Vecchia Modena
Pique Poul, Rosé 2016
Edmunds St. John, Bone-Jolly Rosé 2016
Stoller, Pinot Noir Rosé 2016
Chehalem, Inox Chardonnay 2015
The Four Graces, Pinot Gris 2015
Gascón, Colosal Red 2013
Cardwell Hill, Pinot Gris 2015
L'Ecole No. 41, Merlot 2013
Della Terra, Anonymus
Willamette Valley, Dijon Clone Chardonnay 2013
Wraith, Cabernet, Eidolon Estate 2012
Januik, Red 2015
Tomassi, Valpolicella, Rafaél, 2014
Sharecropper's Pinot Noir 2013
Helix, Pomatia Red Blend 2013
La Espera, Cabernet 2011
Campo Viejo, Rioja Reserva 2011
Villa Antinori, Toscana 2013
Locations, Spanish Red Wine
Locations, Argentinian Red Wine
La Antigua Clásico, Rioja 2011
Shatter, Grenache, Maury 2012
Argyle, Vintage Brut 2011
Abacela, Vintner's Blend #16 Abacela, Fiesta Tempranillo 2014
Benton Hill, Pinot Gris 2015
Primarius, Pinot Gris 2015
Januik, Merlot 2013
Napa Cellars, Cabernet 2013
J. Bookwalter, Protagonist 2012
LAN, Rioja Edicion Limitada 2011
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 2009
Denada Cellars, Cabernet, Maipo Valley 2014
Marchigüe, Cabernet, Colchagua Valley 2013
Oberon, Cabernet 2014
Hedges, Red Mountain 2012
Balboa, Rose of Grenache 2015
Ontañón, Rioja Reserva 2015
Three Horse Ranch, Pinot Gris 2014
Archery Summit, Vireton Pinot Gris 2014
Nelms Road, Merlot 2013
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Pinot Gris 2014
Conn Creek, Cabernet, Napa 2012
Conn Creek, Cabernet, Napa 2013
Villa Maria, Sauvignon Blanc 2015
G3, Cabernet 2013
Chateau Smith, Cabernet, Washington State 2014
Abacela, Vintner's Blend #16
Willamette Valley, Rose of Pinot Noir, Whole Clusters 2015
Albero, Bobal Rose 2015
Ca' del Baio Barbaresco Valgrande 2012
Goodfellow, Reserve Pinot Gris, Clover 2014
Lugana, San Benedetto 2014
Wente, Cabernet, Charles Wetmore 2011
La Espera, Cabernet 2011
King Estate, Pinot Gris 2015
Adelsheim, Pinot Gris 2015
Trader Joe's, Pinot Gris, Willamette Valley 2015
La Vite Lucente, Toscana Red 2013
St. Francis, Cabernet, Sonoma 2013
Kendall-Jackson, Pinot Noir, California 2013
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Napa Valley 2013
Erath, Pinot Noir, Estate Selection 2012
Abbot's Table, Columbia Valley 2014
Intrinsic, Cabernet 2014
Oyster Bay, Pinot Noir 2010
Occhipinti, SP68 Bianco 2014
Layer Cake, Shiraz 2013
Desert Wind, Ruah 2011
WillaKenzie, Pinot Gris 2014
Abacela, Fiesta Tempranillo 2013
Des Amis, Rose 2014
Dunham, Trautina 2012
RoxyAnn, Claret 2012
Del Ri, Claret 2012
Stoppa, Emilia, Red 2004
Primarius, Pinot Noir 2013
Domaines Bunan, Bandol Rose 2015
Albero, Bobal Rose 2015
Deer Creek, Pinot Gris 2015
Beaulieu, Rutherford Cabernet 2013
Archery Summit, Vireton Pinot Gris 2014
King Estate, Pinot Gris, Backbone 2014
Oberon, Napa Cabernet 2013
Apaltagua, Envero Carmenere Gran Reserva 2013
Chateau des Arnauds, Cuvee des Capucins 2012
Nine Hats, Red 2013
Benziger, Cabernet, Sonoma 2012
Roxy Ann, Claret 2012
Januik, Merlot 2012
Conundrum, White 2013
St. Francis, Sonoma Cabernet 2012

The Occasional Book

Phil Stanford - Rose City Vice
Kenneth R. Feinberg - What is Life Worth?
Kent Haruf - Our Souls at Night
Peter Carey - True History of the Kelly Gang
Suzanne Collins - The Hunger Games
Amy Stewart - Girl Waits With Gun
Philip Roth - The Plot Against America
Norm Macdonald - Based on a True Story
Christopher Buckley - Boomsday
Ryan Holiday - The Obstacle is the Way
Ruth Sepetys - Between Shades of Gray
Richard Adams - Watership Down
Claire Vaye Watkins - Gold Fame Citrus
Markus Zusak - I am the Messenger
Anthony Doerr - All the Light We Cannot See
James Joyce - Dubliners
Cheryl Strayed - Torch
William Golding - Lord of the Flies
Saul Bellow - Mister Sammler's Planet
Phil Stanford - White House Call Girl
John Kaplan & Jon R. Waltz - The Trial of Jack Ruby
Kent Haruf - Eventide
David Halberstam - Summer of '49
Norman Mailer - The Naked and the Dead
Maria Dermoȗt - The Ten Thousand Things
William Faulkner - As I Lay Dying
Markus Zusak - The Book Thief
Christopher Buckley - Thank You for Smoking
William Shakespeare - Othello
Joseph Conrad - Heart of Darkness
Bill Bryson - A Short History of Nearly Everything
Cheryl Strayed - Tiny Beautiful Things
Sara Varon - Bake Sale
Stephen King - 11/22/63
Paul Goldstein - Errors and Omissions
Mark Twain - A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur's Court
Steve Martin - Born Standing Up: A Comic's Life
Beverly Cleary - A Girl from Yamhill, a Memoir
Kent Haruf - Plainsong
Hope Larson - A Wrinkle in Time, the Graphic Novel
Rudyard Kipling - Kim
Peter Ames Carlin - Bruce
Fran Cannon Slayton - When the Whistle Blows
Neil Young - Waging Heavy Peace
Mark Bego - Aretha Franklin, the Queen of Soul (2012 ed.)
Jenny Lawson - Let's Pretend This Never Happened
J.D. Salinger - Franny and Zooey
Charles Dickens - A Christmas Carol
Timothy Egan - The Big Burn
Deborah Eisenberg - Transactions in a Foreign Currency
Kurt Vonnegut Jr. - Slaughterhouse Five
Kathryn Lance - Pandora's Genes
Cheryl Strayed - Wild
Fyodor Dostoyevsky - The Brothers Karamazov
Jack London - The House of Pride, and Other Tales of Hawaii
Jack Walker - The Extraordinary Rendition of Vincent Dellamaria
Colum McCann - Let the Great World Spin
Niccolò Machiavelli - The Prince
Harper Lee - To Kill a Mockingbird
Emma McLaughlin & Nicola Kraus - The Nanny Diaries
Brian Selznick - The Invention of Hugo Cabret
Sharon Creech - Walk Two Moons
Keith Richards - Life
F. Sionil Jose - Dusk
Natalie Babbitt - Tuck Everlasting
Justin Halpern - S#*t My Dad Says
Mark Herrmann - The Curmudgeon's Guide to Practicing Law
Barry Glassner - The Gospel of Food
Phil Stanford - The Peyton-Allan Files
Jesse Katz - The Opposite Field
Evelyn Waugh - Brideshead Revisited
J.K. Rowling - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
David Sedaris - Holidays on Ice
Donald Miller - A Million Miles in a Thousand Years
Mitch Albom - Have a Little Faith
C.S. Lewis - The Magician's Nephew
F. Scott Fitzgerald - The Great Gatsby
William Shakespeare - A Midsummer Night's Dream
Ivan Doig - Bucking the Sun
Penda Diakité - I Lost My Tooth in Africa
Grace Lin - The Year of the Rat
Oscar Hijuelos - Mr. Ives' Christmas
Madeline L'Engle - A Wrinkle in Time
Steven Hart - The Last Three Miles
David Sedaris - Me Talk Pretty One Day
Karen Armstrong - The Spiral Staircase
Charles Larson - The Portland Murders
Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
Steven D. Stark - Meet the Beatles
Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
Rick Moody - Garden State
Jonathan Schwartz - All in Good Time
David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim
Anthony Holden - Big Deal
Robert J. Spitzer - The Spirit of Leadership
James McManus - Positively Fifth Street
Jeff Noon - Vurt

Road Work

Miles run year to date: 113
At this date last year: 155
Total run in 2016: 155
In 2015: 271
In 2014: 401
In 2013: 257
In 2012: 129
In 2011: 113
In 2010: 125
In 2009: 67
In 2008: 28
In 2007: 113
In 2006: 100
In 2005: 149
In 2004: 204
In 2003: 269


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