This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on October 24, 2011 4:46 AM.
The previous post in this blog was A great Dane that wasn't.
The next post in this blog is Money to burn.
Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.
The bad economic news keeps jumping off our screen. This graph caught one reader's eye, and here's a grim assessment of where the country is heading.
Meanwhile, here's a fascinating graphic laying out the dire straits in which Europe finds itself.
Comments (12)
Feldstein suggests mortgage principal write downs as a possible way to recovery. The idea to provide a reduction in mortgages only for those completely underwater is perceived by many as unfair. A bail-out so to speak for some who may have may have been less repsonsible in their purchases.
One plan I have seen calls for a reduction in principal for anyone with a bank mortage. The reduction would be based on the drop in value of homes for a particular area. The write down includes provisions for the bank to recover money if the home is later sold for a profit so the money can be paid back.
In any case, more forclosures are certainly on the way if we stay on the current path.
This is all public information yet many of our elected officials prefer to ignore this news. It is fairly obvious for everyone to see the long term effects of public worker unions, unfunded pension plans, and spending on things like trains, green energy, etc.
But this is exactly what Sam and others continue to do. They hand out money to the unions, they waste money on silly public works projects, they hire PR people by the dozen, etc.
Why the big disconnect?? Almost everyone who isn't an elected official gets the fact that too much spending is killing economies around the world, but the politicians continue to waste money by the bushel basket.
"Why the big disconnect?? Almost everyone who isn't an elected official gets the fact that too much spending [backed by inadequate levels of taxation, leading to rising inequality] is killing economies around the world, but the politicians continue to waste money by the bushel basket."
So the short version is the whole planet is like a family being destroyed by soaring debt it will never be able to pay.
Attempting to do so is sacrificing far more than the cost of bankruptcy.
Earth bankruptcy.
Human race, start over?
The numbers of homes being held in default and awaiting foreclosure is probably the worst sign of imminent deepening of our own economy.
That and the massive inability of our governments to pay their bills, obligations and liabilities.
Minus total mayhem, how can the economic scenery be any worse?
There's obviously many people well positioned to weather the re-living of any historical economical storm but if the world is as it seems that will not serve as any obstruction to the apparent inevitability of further collapse.
And won't collapse suck many of the currently secure into the abyss?
Seldes, "..backed by inadequate levels of taxation...".
Let's examine just one small entity of taxation-Portland's. If we were to eliminate urban renewal that would be an additional 26 cents of each dollar going to the whatever you deem needs funding. But on top of that you can add just the debt service of Portland's 11 URA's amounting to over $132 Million per year, not counting paying down the principal.
Add it up and that's big money without your call for more taxation.
“Is the U.S. in a depression? In a word, “no,” … “I’m not quite sure what a depression is,” he said.”
I’m not sure what it is, but I know this is not it. Hmmmm...
IMO we are in a depression, obviously. Falling asset prices, high unemployment, ‘flight to safety’ at the drop of a news story, all levels of gov and big industry doing everything they can to ‘boost confidence’, it plays out like all other depressions.
Simply because it doesn’t look like 1933 doesn’t mean squat. The war in Vietnam looked nothing like the Peloponnesian War, but they were both wars. The current depression doesn’t look like the last – more safety net, different technologies – but it sure exhibits the same symptoms underneath.
Interesting factoid: During the “Great Depression” the country was NOT in recession most of the time. Yet we still call the entire time a depression.
I attended a talk given by Richard Heinberg on Friday - he's the author behind "Peak Oil" and has a new book out titled "The End of Growth." He's basically saying that GDP can no longer be expected to increase by significant amounts, and that increase is what has enabled everyone (governmennts included) to continue to increase debt loads, expecting to pay off the debt down the road with proceeds from the growth. Basically an economic Ponzi scheme. I don't see where 6.5 million jobs (especially living-wage jobs) will come from - and governments are starting to shed jobs at rates that offset the private market increases.
Returning to the underlying problem of derivatives that was broached again last week in this forum in the matter of BAC:
"Bank of America is shifting derivatives in its Merrill investment banking unit to its depository arm, which has access to the Fed discount window and is protected by the FDIC.
This means that the investment bank's European derivatives exposure is now backstopped by U.S. taxpayers. Bank of America didn't get regulatory approval to do this, they just did it at the request of frightened counterparties. Now the Fed and the FDIC are fighting as to whether this was sound. The Fed wants to 'give relief' to the bank holding company, which is under heavy pressure.
This is a direct transfer of risk to the taxpayer done by the bank without approval by regulators and without public input. You will also read below that JP Morgan is apparently doing the same thing with $79 trillion of notional derivatives guaranteed by the FDIC and Federal Reserve.
What this means for you is that when Europe finally implodes and banks fail, U.S. taxpayers will hold the bag for trillions in CDS insurance contracts sold by Bank of America and JP Morgan. Even worse, the total exposure is unknown because Wall Street successfully lobbied during Dodd-Frank passage so that no central exchange would exist keeping track of net derivative exposure." http://dailybail.com/home/holy-bailout-federal-reserve-now-backstopping-75-trillion-of.html
Credit unions, btw, are not insured by the FDIC; the NCUA backs deposits with "the full faith and credit of the US government." http://www.ncua.gov/NCUAsafe.aspx
But how solid will the credit of the US government be if it has to make good potential derivatives losses for just BAC?
Charamba, Douro 2008
Horse Heaven Hills, Cabernet 2010
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills Pinot Grigio 2011
Avignonesi, Montepulciano 2004
Lorelle, Willamette Valley Pinot Noir 2011
Villa Antinori, Toscana 2007
Mercedes Eguren, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
Lorelle, Columbia Valley Cabernet 2011
Purple Moon, Merlot 2011
Purple Moon, Chardonnnay 2011
Abacela, Vintner's Blend No. 12
Opula Red Blend 2010
Liberte, Pinot Noir 2010
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Indian Wells Red Blend 2010
Woodbridge, Chardonnay 2011
King Estate, Pinot Noir 2011
Famille Perrin, Cotes du Rhone Villages 2010
Columbia Crest, Les Chevaux Red 2010
14 Hands, Hot to Trot White Blend
Familia Bianchi, Malbec 2009
Terrapin Cellars, Pinot Gris 2011
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2009
Campo Viejo, Rioja, Termpranillo 2010
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Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2010
Waterbrook, Reserve Merlot 2009
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills, Pinot Grigio 2011
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La Vielle Ferme, Rose 2011
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Nobilo Icon, Pinot Noir 2009
Lello, Douro Tinto 2009
Quinson Fils, Cotes de Provence Rose 2011
Anindor, Pinot Gris 2010
Buenas Ondas, Syrah Rose 2010
Les Fiefs d'Anglars, Malbec 2009
14 Hands, Pinot Gris 2011
Conundrum 2012
Condes de Albarei, Albariño 2011
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2007
Penelope Sanchez, Garnacha Syrah 2010
Canoe Ridge, Merlot 2007
Atalaya do Mar, Godello 2010
Vega Montan, Mencia
Benvolio, Pinot Grigio
Nobilo Icon, Pinot Noir, Marlborough 2009
Portuga, Rose 2011
Revelation, Chardonnay, Pays d'Oc 2010
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 2005
Monte Alto, Tinto Reserva 2005
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Cabernet, Indian Wells 2009
Espiral, Vinho Rose
Vin-Koru, Pinot Gris 2011
14 Hands, Hot to Trot Red 2009
Rodney Strong, Cabernet, Sonoma 2009
Abacela, Vintner's Blend #11
Portuga, White 2010
La Bourgeoisie, Red 2009
Januik, Red 2009
Three Rivers, River's Red 2008
Kirkland, Alexander Valley Merlot 2008
Muga, Rioja Rose 2010
Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2009
Mauro Molino, Barbera d'Alba 2009
Garda Chiaretto Rose
Columbia Crest, Two Vines Vineyard 10 White
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Pinot Gris, Columbia Valley 2009
L'Hortus, Rose de Saignee 2010
Maculan, Pino & Toi 2008
McKinley Springs, Bombing Range Red 2008
Trader Joe's Pinot Gris 2009
Montes Alpha, Cabernet 2007
Gran Sasso, Sangiovese, Terre di Chieti 2009
Garda, Classico Chiaretto Rose
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 1999
Picos del Montgo, Tempranillo 2008
Chateau de Montmirail, Vacqueyras 2008
La Granja 360, Syrah 2009
Montgras, Carmenere Reserva 2009
Lange, Pinot Gris 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Cabernet 2008
Kirkland, Pinot Grigio 2010
Trader Joe's Coastal Syrah 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Merlot 2008
Trader Joe's Coastal Chardonnay 2009
Vieux Papes Red
Domaine de l'Aujardiere, Chardonnay 2009
Santa Rita, Cabernet, Medalla Real 2007
Penfold's, Koonunga Hill Shiraz Cabernet 2008
Guild, Red, Lot #02 2008
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Laforet, Burgogne Chardonnay 2009
Columbia Winery, Merlot 2007
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Maquis Lien 2006
Scott Paul, Pinot Noir, Le Paulee 2007
The Occasional Book
Neil Young - Waging Heavy Peace
Mark Bego - Aretha Franklin, the Queen of Soul (2012 ed.)
Jenny Lawson - Let's Pretend This Never Happened
J.D. Salinger - Franny and Zooey
Charles Dickens - A Christmas Carol
Timothy Egan - The Big Burn
Deborah Eisenberg - Transactions in a Foreign Currency
Kurt Vonnegut Jr. - Slaughterhouse Five
Kathryn Lance - Pandora's Genes
Cheryl Strayed - Wild
Fyodor Dostoyevsky - The Brothers Karamazov
Jack London - The House of Pride, and Other Tales of Hawaii
Jack Walker - The Extraordinary Rendition of Vincent Dellamaria
Colum McCann - Let the Great World Spin
Niccolò Machiavelli - The Prince
Harper Lee - To Kill a Mockingbird
Emma McLaughlin & Nicola Kraus - The Nanny Diaries
Brian Selznick - The Invention of Hugo Cabret
Sharon Creech - Walk Two Moons
Keith Richards - Life
F. Sionil Jose - Dusk
Natalie Babbitt - Tuck Everlasting
Justin Halpern - S#*t My Dad Says
Mark Herrmann - The Curmudgeon's Guide to Practicing Law
Barry Glassner - The Gospel of Food
Phil Stanford - The Peyton-Allan Files
Jesse Katz - The Opposite Field
Evelyn Waugh - Brideshead Revisited
J.K. Rowling - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
David Sedaris - Holidays on Ice
Donald Miller - A Million Miles in a Thousand Years
Mitch Albom - Have a Little Faith
C.S. Lewis - The Magician's Nephew
F. Scott Fitzgerald - The Great Gatsby
William Shakespeare - A Midsummer Night's Dream
Ivan Doig - Bucking the Sun
Penda Diakité - I Lost My Tooth in Africa
Grace Lin - The Year of the Rat
Oscar Hijuelos - Mr. Ives' Christmas
Madeline L'Engle - A Wrinkle in Time
Steven Hart - The Last Three Miles
David Sedaris - Me Talk Pretty One Day
Karen Armstrong - The Spiral Staircase
Charles Larson - The Portland Murders
Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
Steven D. Stark - Meet the Beatles
Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
Rick Moody - Garden State
Jonathan Schwartz - All in Good Time
David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim
Anthony Holden - Big Deal
Robert J. Spitzer - The Spirit of Leadership
James McManus - Positively Fifth Street
Jeff Noon - Vurt
Road Work
Miles run year to date: 21
At this date last year: 52
Total run in 2012: 129
In 2011: 113
In 2010: 125
In 2009: 67
In 2008: 28
In 2007: 113
In 2006: 100
In 2005: 149
In 2004: 204
In 2003: 269
Comments (12)
Feldstein suggests mortgage principal write downs as a possible way to recovery. The idea to provide a reduction in mortgages only for those completely underwater is perceived by many as unfair. A bail-out so to speak for some who may have may have been less repsonsible in their purchases.
One plan I have seen calls for a reduction in principal for anyone with a bank mortage. The reduction would be based on the drop in value of homes for a particular area. The write down includes provisions for the bank to recover money if the home is later sold for a profit so the money can be paid back.
In any case, more forclosures are certainly on the way if we stay on the current path.
Posted by Gibby | October 24, 2011 7:13 AM
Why not retire all debt and just print money? We could bring everyone home, close the borders and make the US a ghetto of sustainable equality.
Posted by dhughes609 | October 24, 2011 7:59 AM
This is all public information yet many of our elected officials prefer to ignore this news. It is fairly obvious for everyone to see the long term effects of public worker unions, unfunded pension plans, and spending on things like trains, green energy, etc.
But this is exactly what Sam and others continue to do. They hand out money to the unions, they waste money on silly public works projects, they hire PR people by the dozen, etc.
Why the big disconnect?? Almost everyone who isn't an elected official gets the fact that too much spending is killing economies around the world, but the politicians continue to waste money by the bushel basket.
Posted by Andy | October 24, 2011 8:19 AM
"Why the big disconnect?? Almost everyone who isn't an elected official gets the fact that too much spending [backed by inadequate levels of taxation, leading to rising inequality] is killing economies around the world, but the politicians continue to waste money by the bushel basket."
fixed that for you
Posted by George Anonymuncule Seldes | October 24, 2011 8:48 AM
So the short version is the whole planet is like a family being destroyed by soaring debt it will never be able to pay.
Attempting to do so is sacrificing far more than the cost of bankruptcy.
Earth bankruptcy.
Human race, start over?
The numbers of homes being held in default and awaiting foreclosure is probably the worst sign of imminent deepening of our own economy.
That and the massive inability of our governments to pay their bills, obligations and liabilities.
Minus total mayhem, how can the economic scenery be any worse?
There's obviously many people well positioned to weather the re-living of any historical economical storm but if the world is as it seems that will not serve as any obstruction to the apparent inevitability of further collapse.
And won't collapse suck many of the currently secure into the abyss?
Help is here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=emwwBm6yeRQ&feature=related
Posted by Ben | October 24, 2011 8:49 AM
Rumors have it that many banks are refusing to let you get your money out.
Why?
The banks are broke and nobody is making them have to play in the real world, where you balance your books and take your losses.
This is all leading to total collapse and then the issuance of electronic credit.
We are being suckered into a wireless world controlled by the few.
Posted by Ralph Woods | October 24, 2011 9:52 AM
Seldes, "..backed by inadequate levels of taxation...".
Let's examine just one small entity of taxation-Portland's. If we were to eliminate urban renewal that would be an additional 26 cents of each dollar going to the whatever you deem needs funding. But on top of that you can add just the debt service of Portland's 11 URA's amounting to over $132 Million per year, not counting paying down the principal.
Add it up and that's big money without your call for more taxation.
Posted by lw | October 24, 2011 9:53 AM
“Is the U.S. in a depression? In a word, “no,” … “I’m not quite sure what a depression is,” he said.”
I’m not sure what it is, but I know this is not it. Hmmmm...
IMO we are in a depression, obviously. Falling asset prices, high unemployment, ‘flight to safety’ at the drop of a news story, all levels of gov and big industry doing everything they can to ‘boost confidence’, it plays out like all other depressions.
Simply because it doesn’t look like 1933 doesn’t mean squat. The war in Vietnam looked nothing like the Peloponnesian War, but they were both wars. The current depression doesn’t look like the last – more safety net, different technologies – but it sure exhibits the same symptoms underneath.
Interesting factoid: During the “Great Depression” the country was NOT in recession most of the time. Yet we still call the entire time a depression.
Posted by EB | October 24, 2011 10:15 AM
This will eventually be called the Great something.
Perhaps the Great Depreciation
or the Great Desolation
Posted by Ben | October 24, 2011 11:21 AM
I attended a talk given by Richard Heinberg on Friday - he's the author behind "Peak Oil" and has a new book out titled "The End of Growth." He's basically saying that GDP can no longer be expected to increase by significant amounts, and that increase is what has enabled everyone (governmennts included) to continue to increase debt loads, expecting to pay off the debt down the road with proceeds from the growth. Basically an economic Ponzi scheme. I don't see where 6.5 million jobs (especially living-wage jobs) will come from - and governments are starting to shed jobs at rates that offset the private market increases.
Posted by umpire | October 24, 2011 12:43 PM
This will eventually be called the Great something....
The Great Deception!
Posted by clinamen | October 25, 2011 3:08 PM
Returning to the underlying problem of derivatives that was broached again last week in this forum in the matter of BAC:
"Bank of America is shifting derivatives in its Merrill investment banking unit to its depository arm, which has access to the Fed discount window and is protected by the FDIC.
This means that the investment bank's European derivatives exposure is now backstopped by U.S. taxpayers. Bank of America didn't get regulatory approval to do this, they just did it at the request of frightened counterparties. Now the Fed and the FDIC are fighting as to whether this was sound. The Fed wants to 'give relief' to the bank holding company, which is under heavy pressure.
This is a direct transfer of risk to the taxpayer done by the bank without approval by regulators and without public input. You will also read below that JP Morgan is apparently doing the same thing with $79 trillion of notional derivatives guaranteed by the FDIC and Federal Reserve.
What this means for you is that when Europe finally implodes and banks fail, U.S. taxpayers will hold the bag for trillions in CDS insurance contracts sold by Bank of America and JP Morgan. Even worse, the total exposure is unknown because Wall Street successfully lobbied during Dodd-Frank passage so that no central exchange would exist keeping track of net derivative exposure."
http://dailybail.com/home/holy-bailout-federal-reserve-now-backstopping-75-trillion-of.html
Credit unions, btw, are not insured by the FDIC; the NCUA backs deposits with "the full faith and credit of the US government."
http://www.ncua.gov/NCUAsafe.aspx
But how solid will the credit of the US government be if it has to make good potential derivatives losses for just BAC?
Posted by Gardiner Menefree | October 25, 2011 4:29 PM