We're now through six weeks out of the 20-week season in our charity pro football underdog game. If we're counting right, there have been 25 winning 'dogs so far; the average points won per victorious 'dog is 4.16. A perfect score so far would be 45.0. Discounting 'dogs that have paid 2 points or less, there have been 20 winners.
Last year at this time, we count 35 winning 'dogs, but averaging only 4.03. A perfect score would have been only 41.5. Discounting 'dogs that paid 2 or less, there were 28 winners.
This year there are 33 players. 27 have some points; last year, 29 out of 32 did. The top score so far is 21.5; last year at this time it was 26.5. Two players currently have four correct picks; none has five or six. (Last year we had one player with 5 out of 6, but he was not the leader or the eventual winner.) Perhaps most tellingly, the average score per player is currently 8.47; last year it was 12.45.
Maybe it's the labor strife that delayed the pre-season that's making it easier for the bookies to call the winners in the moneyline. Whatever it is, it's been a challenging season for our players so far.
But don't look back -- somebody might be gaining on you. Here's how the mutts shape up for the weekend ahead:
14 INDIANAPOLIS at New Orleans
13 ST. LOUIS at Dallas
8.5 MINNESOTA vs. Green Bay
8 JACKSONVILLE vs. Baltimore
3.5 ATLANTA at Detroit
3.5 ARIZONA vs. Pittsburgh
3.5 KANSAS CITY at Oakland
3 SEATTLE at Cleveland
3 HOUSTON at Tennessee
2.5 WASHINGTON at Carolina
1 TAMPA BAY vs. Chicago
Nothing for Chargers/Jets or Broncos/Dolphins yet... probably tonight.
So far we see a couple of great Danes, a couple of full-size shepherds, a bunch of yapping terriers, and a chihuahua. Good luck with the pickin', players.
UPDATE, 8:38 p.m.: As promised, the last two:
2 NEW YORK JETS vs. San Diego
1.5 DENVER at Miami
Comments (9)
I just read Carson Palmer is going to the Raiders. Could this be another Jim Plunkett situation?
Wistful, Bill -- but very unlikely. He's just there to try to get them into the postures this year and mentor Pryor. Palmer will be with some other team next year: Seattle & Pete Carroll?
Will he or won't he? Who's on first, Carson Palmer or Kyle Boller?
How will the Vikings new QB fare at home under the Metrodome against the defending World Champs? It may not matter:
Half of the Vikings' starting defensive backs are listed as doubtful heading into Sunday's game against the Packers and quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who leads the NFL in passer rating (122.5), completion percentage (70.2), yards per attempt (9.76) and touchdowns (17). http://www.startribune.com/sports/vikings/blogs/132331713.html
It's gonna be a tough week to pick up many points.
"Mojo's Best Bets" will be up in the morning Saturday.
Wow. It sure does get tougher here each week, doesn't it?
1. TAMPA BAY (+1) vs. Chicago (@London, England) -- Yeah, well, who picks a team in this underdog contest for a measly one point anyway? Mojo does, hoping to crawl back to respectability with his prognostication record taking a dip below .500 last week going 0-3. Oy. Mojo says, given the tough sheet of games to pick from this week though, it might be a good gamble for someone near the front of the slow-runnin' dog pack to take a baby step further up.
2. NY JETS (+2) vs. San Diego -- While the sideshow of former Charger RB LaDainian Thomlinson trying to get a TD against the only team he hasn't scored on in the NFL, the splash story on Monday morning is more likely to be Plaxico Burress' bust out party with Sanchez all over the field on Sunday. San Diego is inconsistent, despite QB Rivers' exceptional talent and skills, and the Jets can not lose a third game in a row and expect to make the playoffs behind New England and Buffalo in their division. A must win game for the Jets. One to watch.
3. SEATTLE (+3) at Cleveland -- The Seahawks' defense will win this one along the northern shore of Ohio. Cleveland's running game is hobbled, Colt McCoy's arm is still suspect, to wit:
Yes, the Browns are throwing way too much -- 43 times a game. But if they were completing, say, 30 of those passes, would anyone complain?
The bigger problem is the number of passes hitting the ground. Colt McCoy is averaging an astounding 19 incompletions a game. That computes to 304 missed passes over 16 games. That's 54 more incomplete passes than the Browns had in 2008, which is arguably their most tortured season of quarterbacking in their new era. http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2011/10/cleveland_browns_working_to_ge.html
"The Upset Special"
(last week, 0-1; to date, 1-4)
ARIZONA (+3.5) vs. Pittsburgh -- The other game to watch on Sunday (besides NYJ-SD). Should be a spectacular clash, with lots of emotion on both sides of the ball and the sidelines (see "The X Factor," below). Arizona head coach Whisenhunt was the former offensive coordinator of the Steelers under Bill Cowher, and along with OL coach (and former Steelers OL & Ass't Head Coach) Russ Grimm, was passed over by the Steelers owners in favor of Tampa secondary coach, Mike Tomlin. Then, of course, these two teams played just two years ago in what has been called the most exciting Super Bowl ever, with a crushing last-second loss by the Cards on an all-time great final drive and super catch by Santonio ("Wake & Bake") Holmes, over-shadowing an awesome 2nd half display by Arizona All-Pro (and former Pitt All-American) WR Larry Fitzgerald.
The Cardinals must not fall behind early like they have several times already this season. Steelers splash play WR Mike Wallace is nursing a hamstring injury and may not be a factor, though Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown (who are very good special teams return men) are developing into above-average speedy & elusive receivers, especially in the clutch. The Steelers will need to win the turnover battle to pull this one out, and will be taking risks to go for the ball. Right now Pittsburgh is a horrible -7 in takeaways.
A special teams' play at any time could be the difference in this one, and the Cards are certainly very capable of making one -- or two -- against a Steelers team that is notorious for ST coverage breakdowns against underdogs.
Not much going on here, unless you're feelin' lucky about INDIANAPOLIS (+14) pulling off a monster upset in the Big Easy. I just don't believe that's likely, but with not much attractive mid-sized-point plays available to move up with this week, it might be a good time to go for it.
JACKSONVILLE (+8) just doesn't have what it takes to either stop Ray Rice + Flacco & Co., or to protect rookie QB Blaine Gabbert from the powerful Ravens defense, who will treat Gabbert to a Halloween horror preview. Blaine, meet Pain.
ST LOUIS (+13) at Dallas? Not this year. Especially after the Cowboys letdown at the end last week in Foxboro.
MINNESOTA (+8.5) vs. Green Bay? Yeah, maybe worth "pondering," but only if Aaron Rogers falls getting off of the team bus and breaks both of his arms. It would be fun to root for the rookie Vikings QB Christian Ponder, making his first start for the former perennial All-Pro Donovan McNabb, to have some beginners luck. This game is likely to be out of hand before halftime. 8.5? Should be more like 10 or 11 by kickoff. Vegas has it at 9.5/10 right now.
This won't help the Vikings any, either:
Vikings cornerback Chris Cook was arrested on two domestic assault charges and booked into the Hennepin County Jail early Saturday morning. Cook is being held without bail and will not appear in court until Monday morning, meaning he will almost certainly miss Sunday's game with the Green Bay Packers at Mall of America Field.
From The Minneapolis Star-Tribune, October 22, 2011 - 12:30 PM
Charamba, Douro 2008
Horse Heaven Hills, Cabernet 2010
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills Pinot Grigio 2011
Avignonesi, Montepulciano 2004
Lorelle, Willamette Valley Pinot Noir 2011
Villa Antinori, Toscana 2007
Mercedes Eguren, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
Lorelle, Columbia Valley Cabernet 2011
Purple Moon, Merlot 2011
Purple Moon, Chardonnnay 2011
Abacela, Vintner's Blend No. 12
Opula Red Blend 2010
Liberte, Pinot Noir 2010
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Indian Wells Red Blend 2010
Woodbridge, Chardonnay 2011
King Estate, Pinot Noir 2011
Famille Perrin, Cotes du Rhone Villages 2010
Columbia Crest, Les Chevaux Red 2010
14 Hands, Hot to Trot White Blend
Familia Bianchi, Malbec 2009
Terrapin Cellars, Pinot Gris 2011
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2009
Campo Viejo, Rioja, Termpranillo 2010
Ravenswood, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2010
Waterbrook, Reserve Merlot 2009
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills, Pinot Grigio 2011
Tarantas, Rose
Chateau Lajarre, Bordeaux 2009
La Vielle Ferme, Rose 2011
Benvolio, Pinot Grigio 2011
Nobilo Icon, Pinot Noir 2009
Lello, Douro Tinto 2009
Quinson Fils, Cotes de Provence Rose 2011
Anindor, Pinot Gris 2010
Buenas Ondas, Syrah Rose 2010
Les Fiefs d'Anglars, Malbec 2009
14 Hands, Pinot Gris 2011
Conundrum 2012
Condes de Albarei, Albariño 2011
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2007
Penelope Sanchez, Garnacha Syrah 2010
Canoe Ridge, Merlot 2007
Atalaya do Mar, Godello 2010
Vega Montan, Mencia
Benvolio, Pinot Grigio
Nobilo Icon, Pinot Noir, Marlborough 2009
Portuga, Rose 2011
Revelation, Chardonnay, Pays d'Oc 2010
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 2005
Monte Alto, Tinto Reserva 2005
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Cabernet, Indian Wells 2009
Espiral, Vinho Rose
Vin-Koru, Pinot Gris 2011
14 Hands, Hot to Trot Red 2009
Rodney Strong, Cabernet, Sonoma 2009
Abacela, Vintner's Blend #11
Portuga, White 2010
La Bourgeoisie, Red 2009
Januik, Red 2009
Three Rivers, River's Red 2008
Kirkland, Alexander Valley Merlot 2008
Muga, Rioja Rose 2010
Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2009
Mauro Molino, Barbera d'Alba 2009
Garda Chiaretto Rose
Columbia Crest, Two Vines Vineyard 10 White
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Pinot Gris, Columbia Valley 2009
L'Hortus, Rose de Saignee 2010
Maculan, Pino & Toi 2008
McKinley Springs, Bombing Range Red 2008
Trader Joe's Pinot Gris 2009
Montes Alpha, Cabernet 2007
Gran Sasso, Sangiovese, Terre di Chieti 2009
Garda, Classico Chiaretto Rose
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 1999
Picos del Montgo, Tempranillo 2008
Chateau de Montmirail, Vacqueyras 2008
La Granja 360, Syrah 2009
Montgras, Carmenere Reserva 2009
Lange, Pinot Gris 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Cabernet 2008
Kirkland, Pinot Grigio 2010
Trader Joe's Coastal Syrah 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Merlot 2008
Trader Joe's Coastal Chardonnay 2009
Vieux Papes Red
Domaine de l'Aujardiere, Chardonnay 2009
Santa Rita, Cabernet, Medalla Real 2007
Penfold's, Koonunga Hill Shiraz Cabernet 2008
Guild, Red, Lot #02 2008
Dievole, Dievolino Sangiovese 2008
Laforet, Burgogne Chardonnay 2009
Columbia Winery, Merlot 2007
Bonterra, Cabernet 2008
Elk Cove, Pinot Gris 2009
Maquis Lien 2006
Scott Paul, Pinot Noir, Le Paulee 2007
The Occasional Book
Neil Young - Waging Heavy Peace
Mark Bego - Aretha Franklin, the Queen of Soul (2012 ed.)
Jenny Lawson - Let's Pretend This Never Happened
J.D. Salinger - Franny and Zooey
Charles Dickens - A Christmas Carol
Timothy Egan - The Big Burn
Deborah Eisenberg - Transactions in a Foreign Currency
Kurt Vonnegut Jr. - Slaughterhouse Five
Kathryn Lance - Pandora's Genes
Cheryl Strayed - Wild
Fyodor Dostoyevsky - The Brothers Karamazov
Jack London - The House of Pride, and Other Tales of Hawaii
Jack Walker - The Extraordinary Rendition of Vincent Dellamaria
Colum McCann - Let the Great World Spin
Niccolò Machiavelli - The Prince
Harper Lee - To Kill a Mockingbird
Emma McLaughlin & Nicola Kraus - The Nanny Diaries
Brian Selznick - The Invention of Hugo Cabret
Sharon Creech - Walk Two Moons
Keith Richards - Life
F. Sionil Jose - Dusk
Natalie Babbitt - Tuck Everlasting
Justin Halpern - S#*t My Dad Says
Mark Herrmann - The Curmudgeon's Guide to Practicing Law
Barry Glassner - The Gospel of Food
Phil Stanford - The Peyton-Allan Files
Jesse Katz - The Opposite Field
Evelyn Waugh - Brideshead Revisited
J.K. Rowling - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
David Sedaris - Holidays on Ice
Donald Miller - A Million Miles in a Thousand Years
Mitch Albom - Have a Little Faith
C.S. Lewis - The Magician's Nephew
F. Scott Fitzgerald - The Great Gatsby
William Shakespeare - A Midsummer Night's Dream
Ivan Doig - Bucking the Sun
Penda Diakité - I Lost My Tooth in Africa
Grace Lin - The Year of the Rat
Oscar Hijuelos - Mr. Ives' Christmas
Madeline L'Engle - A Wrinkle in Time
Steven Hart - The Last Three Miles
David Sedaris - Me Talk Pretty One Day
Karen Armstrong - The Spiral Staircase
Charles Larson - The Portland Murders
Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
Steven D. Stark - Meet the Beatles
Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
Rick Moody - Garden State
Jonathan Schwartz - All in Good Time
David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim
Anthony Holden - Big Deal
Robert J. Spitzer - The Spirit of Leadership
James McManus - Positively Fifth Street
Jeff Noon - Vurt
Road Work
Miles run year to date: 21
At this date last year: 52
Total run in 2012: 129
In 2011: 113
In 2010: 125
In 2009: 67
In 2008: 28
In 2007: 113
In 2006: 100
In 2005: 149
In 2004: 204
In 2003: 269
Last year at this time, we count 35 winning 'dogs, but averaging only 4.03. A perfect score would have been only 41.5. Discounting 'dogs that paid 2 or less, there were 28 winners.
Comments (9)
I just read Carson Palmer is going to the Raiders. Could this be another Jim Plunkett situation?
Posted by Bill McDonald | October 18, 2011 10:40 AM
Wistful, Bill -- but very unlikely. He's just there to try to get them into the postures this year and mentor Pryor. Palmer will be with some other team next year: Seattle & Pete Carroll?
Posted by Mojo | October 18, 2011 9:51 PM
That's "playoffs" (freakin' autokorrekt!).
Posted by Mojo | October 18, 2011 9:53 PM
On further review: Wow. What a bungled deal the Raiders made. Dey got stuh-uh-uck.
Posted by Mojo | October 19, 2011 2:14 AM
Will he or won't he? Who's on first, Carson Palmer or Kyle Boller?
How will the Vikings new QB fare at home under the Metrodome against the defending World Champs? It may not matter:
Half of the Vikings' starting defensive backs are listed as doubtful heading into Sunday's game against the Packers and quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who leads the NFL in passer rating (122.5), completion percentage (70.2), yards per attempt (9.76) and touchdowns (17).
http://www.startribune.com/sports/vikings/blogs/132331713.html
It's gonna be a tough week to pick up many points.
"Mojo's Best Bets" will be up in the morning Saturday.
Posted by Mojo | October 21, 2011 12:05 PM
Olin Kreutz walks away from the Saints
http://www.nola.com/saints/index.ssf/2011/10/new_orleans_saints_center_olin_1.html
Makes that Indy game a little more interesting.
Posted by Mojo | October 21, 2011 1:07 PM
"Mojo's Best Bets"
(Last week, 0-3; to date, 7-8)
Wow. It sure does get tougher here each week, doesn't it?
1. TAMPA BAY (+1) vs. Chicago (@London, England) -- Yeah, well, who picks a team in this underdog contest for a measly one point anyway? Mojo does, hoping to crawl back to respectability with his prognostication record taking a dip below .500 last week going 0-3. Oy. Mojo says, given the tough sheet of games to pick from this week though, it might be a good gamble for someone near the front of the slow-runnin' dog pack to take a baby step further up.
2. NY JETS (+2) vs. San Diego -- While the sideshow of former Charger RB LaDainian Thomlinson trying to get a TD against the only team he hasn't scored on in the NFL, the splash story on Monday morning is more likely to be Plaxico Burress' bust out party with Sanchez all over the field on Sunday. San Diego is inconsistent, despite QB Rivers' exceptional talent and skills, and the Jets can not lose a third game in a row and expect to make the playoffs behind New England and Buffalo in their division. A must win game for the Jets. One to watch.
3. SEATTLE (+3) at Cleveland -- The Seahawks' defense will win this one along the northern shore of Ohio. Cleveland's running game is hobbled, Colt McCoy's arm is still suspect, to wit:
Yes, the Browns are throwing way too much -- 43 times a game. But if they were completing, say, 30 of those passes, would anyone complain?
The bigger problem is the number of passes hitting the ground. Colt McCoy is averaging an astounding 19 incompletions a game. That computes to 304 missed passes over 16 games. That's 54 more incomplete passes than the Browns had in 2008, which is arguably their most tortured season of quarterbacking in their new era.
http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2011/10/cleveland_browns_working_to_ge.html
"The Upset Special"
(last week, 0-1; to date, 1-4)
ARIZONA (+3.5) vs. Pittsburgh -- The other game to watch on Sunday (besides NYJ-SD). Should be a spectacular clash, with lots of emotion on both sides of the ball and the sidelines (see "The X Factor," below). Arizona head coach Whisenhunt was the former offensive coordinator of the Steelers under Bill Cowher, and along with OL coach (and former Steelers OL & Ass't Head Coach) Russ Grimm, was passed over by the Steelers owners in favor of Tampa secondary coach, Mike Tomlin. Then, of course, these two teams played just two years ago in what has been called the most exciting Super Bowl ever, with a crushing last-second loss by the Cards on an all-time great final drive and super catch by Santonio ("Wake & Bake") Holmes, over-shadowing an awesome 2nd half display by Arizona All-Pro (and former Pitt All-American) WR Larry Fitzgerald.
Super Bowl XLIII Highlights 2009
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWAmqHVmzkY&feature=related&fmt=18
The Cardinals must not fall behind early like they have several times already this season. Steelers splash play WR Mike Wallace is nursing a hamstring injury and may not be a factor, though Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown (who are very good special teams return men) are developing into above-average speedy & elusive receivers, especially in the clutch. The Steelers will need to win the turnover battle to pull this one out, and will be taking risks to go for the ball. Right now Pittsburgh is a horrible -7 in takeaways.
A special teams' play at any time could be the difference in this one, and the Cards are certainly very capable of making one -- or two -- against a Steelers team that is notorious for ST coverage breakdowns against underdogs.
The X Factor:
Whisenhunt, Roethlisberger not friends
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/sports/articles/2009/01/27/20090127bickley0127.html
Big Ben vs. Whiz: Ice Bowl II
http://www.timesonline.com/sports/big-ben-vs-whiz-ice-bowl-ii/article_2020cba4-58a1-5ee1-b1e8-4031a0c1a8a7.html
"Gamblers Corner"
Not much going on here, unless you're feelin' lucky about INDIANAPOLIS (+14) pulling off a monster upset in the Big Easy. I just don't believe that's likely, but with not much attractive mid-sized-point plays available to move up with this week, it might be a good time to go for it.
JACKSONVILLE (+8) just doesn't have what it takes to either stop Ray Rice + Flacco & Co., or to protect rookie QB Blaine Gabbert from the powerful Ravens defense, who will treat Gabbert to a Halloween horror preview. Blaine, meet Pain.
ST LOUIS (+13) at Dallas? Not this year. Especially after the Cowboys letdown at the end last week in Foxboro.
MINNESOTA (+8.5) vs. Green Bay? Yeah, maybe worth "pondering," but only if Aaron Rogers falls getting off of the team bus and breaks both of his arms. It would be fun to root for the rookie Vikings QB Christian Ponder, making his first start for the former perennial All-Pro Donovan McNabb, to have some beginners luck. This game is likely to be out of hand before halftime. 8.5? Should be more like 10 or 11 by kickoff. Vegas has it at 9.5/10 right now.
This won't help the Vikings any, either:
Vikings cornerback Chris Cook was arrested on two domestic assault charges and booked into the Hennepin County Jail early Saturday morning. Cook is being held without bail and will not appear in court until Monday morning, meaning he will almost certainly miss Sunday's game with the Green Bay Packers at Mall of America Field.
From The Minneapolis Star-Tribune, October 22, 2011 - 12:30 PM
GOOD LUCK EVERYBODY!
Posted by Mojo | October 22, 2011 11:33 AM
"Mojo's Best Bets" got blitzed after posting.
In sum, without ratioanles:
1. TAMPA BAY
2. SEATTLE
"Upset Special" -- ARIZONA
Posted by Mojo | October 22, 2011 1:58 PM
Oops. Peek-a-boo. Thanks, Jack! Forgot the Jets in that impromptu emergency summary, too. Whew.
Posted by Mojo | October 22, 2011 3:34 PM