Not surprising at all since they have run out of bullets a long time ago. They are essentially buying treasury bonds to prevent a total collapse of the bond market. Japan and China have had enough and are no longer buying bonds in the numbers they bought previously.
This latest Fed action will do nothing to spur the economy. Until the banks are forced to mark-to-market their housing inventory and do a complete reset, there can be no recovery. Of course most banks will be proven bankrupt, so nobody wants to do it. If it wasn't for drug money laundering and the Fed's funny money, they would already be out of business
In extending its campaign of novel efforts to shake the economy from its torpor, the Fed said that it was responding to evidence that there was a clear need for help.
The problem here is the money from QE1 and QE2 clearly ended up on bank balance sheets, and not in the economy. QE3 will be no different. Buy bank stocks.
The most "novel" idea I've heard in a while was for the treasury to start charging banks interest for parking their money there. Rather than paying .25% or whatever it is, start charging them 2% for the privilege of keeping their money safe. Then let's see where all the money goes.
The U.S. bond market is still very strong, and inflation is low. So it seems that the Fed is doing the right thing by not taking advice from the economists commenting on this blog.
"The central bank said in a statement that the program was aimed at reducing the cost of borrowing for businesses and consumers, including the cost of mortgage loans. It hopes that the lower rates will encourage companies to build new factories and hire more workers, and consumers to start spending again on homes and cars and clothes and vacations."
That's the ticket! Back to spending what we don't have and overextending ourselves while enriching the banking industry. Never mind that people without jobs HAVE to borrow or they don't HAVE anything to spend.
We;ve already seen global businesses sitting on millions/billions in cash, and not hiring in the US. Folks, they no longer need us as consumers here in the good ol' USA for the most part. India, Pakistan, China, parts of S. America - that's where the markets are. I do like Bean's idea to tax the cash holdings over some fairly low threshold. Maybe that would also help kickstart some spending in the US. Or, the money just goes to another entity in another country.
OK, this is the definition of insanity - Doing the same thing and expecting different results.
They made long-term money cheaper. Average Joe doesn't have any more money. Yet the banks and companies have plenty of money. They just don't want to tie it up in any long-term investments like plant or expansion.
Look at gold, T-bills or the stock market (at least before today). Those are all going up in price for no real reason besides whoever bought can sell tomorrow and get their money back with the chance of some return greater than lending it out.
The 3.8 percent inflation rate of the past 12 months is not what's hurting Americans. If anything, this move by the Fed is too modest to meet the task.
Pete - when people are either unemployed or not getting pay raises if they are employed or their raises are under 3%, then, in fact, 3.8% is big. Real income is declining but perhaps you don't see the bigger picture. You can Google and see that the relative position (adjusted for inflation) of the middle class income is declining.
The 3.8% inflation rate is a figment of the government's imagination.
If you eat protein, use energy, wear cotton, take medicine, or pay health insurance premiums, you have experienced much higher inflation than any government statistic has captured.
Understating the CPI is the best way to keep Social Security solvent without passing any new legislation.
Charamba, Douro 2008
Horse Heaven Hills, Cabernet 2010
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills Pinot Grigio 2011
Avignonesi, Montepulciano 2004
Lorelle, Willamette Valley Pinot Noir 2011
Villa Antinori, Toscana 2007
Mercedes Eguren, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
Lorelle, Columbia Valley Cabernet 2011
Purple Moon, Merlot 2011
Purple Moon, Chardonnnay 2011
Abacela, Vintner's Blend No. 12
Opula Red Blend 2010
Liberte, Pinot Noir 2010
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Indian Wells Red Blend 2010
Woodbridge, Chardonnay 2011
King Estate, Pinot Noir 2011
Famille Perrin, Cotes du Rhone Villages 2010
Columbia Crest, Les Chevaux Red 2010
14 Hands, Hot to Trot White Blend
Familia Bianchi, Malbec 2009
Terrapin Cellars, Pinot Gris 2011
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2009
Campo Viejo, Rioja, Termpranillo 2010
Ravenswood, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2010
Waterbrook, Reserve Merlot 2009
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills, Pinot Grigio 2011
Tarantas, Rose
Chateau Lajarre, Bordeaux 2009
La Vielle Ferme, Rose 2011
Benvolio, Pinot Grigio 2011
Nobilo Icon, Pinot Noir 2009
Lello, Douro Tinto 2009
Quinson Fils, Cotes de Provence Rose 2011
Anindor, Pinot Gris 2010
Buenas Ondas, Syrah Rose 2010
Les Fiefs d'Anglars, Malbec 2009
14 Hands, Pinot Gris 2011
Conundrum 2012
Condes de Albarei, Albariño 2011
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2007
Penelope Sanchez, Garnacha Syrah 2010
Canoe Ridge, Merlot 2007
Atalaya do Mar, Godello 2010
Vega Montan, Mencia
Benvolio, Pinot Grigio
Nobilo Icon, Pinot Noir, Marlborough 2009
Portuga, Rose 2011
Revelation, Chardonnay, Pays d'Oc 2010
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 2005
Monte Alto, Tinto Reserva 2005
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Cabernet, Indian Wells 2009
Espiral, Vinho Rose
Vin-Koru, Pinot Gris 2011
14 Hands, Hot to Trot Red 2009
Rodney Strong, Cabernet, Sonoma 2009
Abacela, Vintner's Blend #11
Portuga, White 2010
La Bourgeoisie, Red 2009
Januik, Red 2009
Three Rivers, River's Red 2008
Kirkland, Alexander Valley Merlot 2008
Muga, Rioja Rose 2010
Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2009
Mauro Molino, Barbera d'Alba 2009
Garda Chiaretto Rose
Columbia Crest, Two Vines Vineyard 10 White
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Trader Joe's Pinot Gris 2009
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Garda, Classico Chiaretto Rose
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 1999
Picos del Montgo, Tempranillo 2008
Chateau de Montmirail, Vacqueyras 2008
La Granja 360, Syrah 2009
Montgras, Carmenere Reserva 2009
Lange, Pinot Gris 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Cabernet 2008
Kirkland, Pinot Grigio 2010
Trader Joe's Coastal Syrah 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Merlot 2008
Trader Joe's Coastal Chardonnay 2009
Vieux Papes Red
Domaine de l'Aujardiere, Chardonnay 2009
Santa Rita, Cabernet, Medalla Real 2007
Penfold's, Koonunga Hill Shiraz Cabernet 2008
Guild, Red, Lot #02 2008
Dievole, Dievolino Sangiovese 2008
Laforet, Burgogne Chardonnay 2009
Columbia Winery, Merlot 2007
Bonterra, Cabernet 2008
Elk Cove, Pinot Gris 2009
Maquis Lien 2006
Scott Paul, Pinot Noir, Le Paulee 2007
The Occasional Book
Neil Young - Waging Heavy Peace
Mark Bego - Aretha Franklin, the Queen of Soul (2012 ed.)
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J.D. Salinger - Franny and Zooey
Charles Dickens - A Christmas Carol
Timothy Egan - The Big Burn
Deborah Eisenberg - Transactions in a Foreign Currency
Kurt Vonnegut Jr. - Slaughterhouse Five
Kathryn Lance - Pandora's Genes
Cheryl Strayed - Wild
Fyodor Dostoyevsky - The Brothers Karamazov
Jack London - The House of Pride, and Other Tales of Hawaii
Jack Walker - The Extraordinary Rendition of Vincent Dellamaria
Colum McCann - Let the Great World Spin
Niccolò Machiavelli - The Prince
Harper Lee - To Kill a Mockingbird
Emma McLaughlin & Nicola Kraus - The Nanny Diaries
Brian Selznick - The Invention of Hugo Cabret
Sharon Creech - Walk Two Moons
Keith Richards - Life
F. Sionil Jose - Dusk
Natalie Babbitt - Tuck Everlasting
Justin Halpern - S#*t My Dad Says
Mark Herrmann - The Curmudgeon's Guide to Practicing Law
Barry Glassner - The Gospel of Food
Phil Stanford - The Peyton-Allan Files
Jesse Katz - The Opposite Field
Evelyn Waugh - Brideshead Revisited
J.K. Rowling - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
David Sedaris - Holidays on Ice
Donald Miller - A Million Miles in a Thousand Years
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C.S. Lewis - The Magician's Nephew
F. Scott Fitzgerald - The Great Gatsby
William Shakespeare - A Midsummer Night's Dream
Ivan Doig - Bucking the Sun
Penda Diakité - I Lost My Tooth in Africa
Grace Lin - The Year of the Rat
Oscar Hijuelos - Mr. Ives' Christmas
Madeline L'Engle - A Wrinkle in Time
Steven Hart - The Last Three Miles
David Sedaris - Me Talk Pretty One Day
Karen Armstrong - The Spiral Staircase
Charles Larson - The Portland Murders
Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
Steven D. Stark - Meet the Beatles
Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
Rick Moody - Garden State
Jonathan Schwartz - All in Good Time
David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim
Anthony Holden - Big Deal
Robert J. Spitzer - The Spirit of Leadership
James McManus - Positively Fifth Street
Jeff Noon - Vurt
Road Work
Miles run year to date: 21
At this date last year: 52
Total run in 2012: 129
In 2011: 113
In 2010: 125
In 2009: 67
In 2008: 28
In 2007: 113
In 2006: 100
In 2005: 149
In 2004: 204
In 2003: 269
Comments (17)
And those of us with 401ks for retirement got a lot more hosed.
Posted by LucsAdvo | September 21, 2011 2:28 PM
Not surprising at all since they have run out of bullets a long time ago. They are essentially buying treasury bonds to prevent a total collapse of the bond market. Japan and China have had enough and are no longer buying bonds in the numbers they bought previously.
This latest Fed action will do nothing to spur the economy. Until the banks are forced to mark-to-market their housing inventory and do a complete reset, there can be no recovery. Of course most banks will be proven bankrupt, so nobody wants to do it. If it wasn't for drug money laundering and the Fed's funny money, they would already be out of business
Posted by Ralph Woods | September 21, 2011 2:43 PM
Cool! On the count of three, everyone say "Vie-mar".
Posted by Mr. Grumpy | September 21, 2011 2:51 PM
In extending its campaign of novel efforts to shake the economy from its torpor, the Fed said that it was responding to evidence that there was a clear need for help.
The problem here is the money from QE1 and QE2 clearly ended up on bank balance sheets, and not in the economy. QE3 will be no different. Buy bank stocks.
The most "novel" idea I've heard in a while was for the treasury to start charging banks interest for parking their money there. Rather than paying .25% or whatever it is, start charging them 2% for the privilege of keeping their money safe. Then let's see where all the money goes.
Posted by Bean | September 21, 2011 2:53 PM
Mr. Grumpy, are you suggesting that the Tea Baggers will play the role of the NSDAP?
Posted by LucsAdvo | September 21, 2011 3:06 PM
The U.S. bond market is still very strong, and inflation is low. So it seems that the Fed is doing the right thing by not taking advice from the economists commenting on this blog.
Y'all seem to be worrying about the wrong things.
Posted by Richard | September 21, 2011 3:09 PM
Actually, an article in the Economist this morning said the Fed should do just this.
Posted by canucken | September 21, 2011 3:28 PM
Hey Richard, "Inflation is low" ?
You must be using "new math" or something. Here is a source for the real rate of inflation, which is currently around 13%:
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
And yes the bond market is currently strong, but that can (and probably will) go South really, really fast.
Posted by Ralph Woods | September 21, 2011 3:33 PM
"The central bank said in a statement that the program was aimed at reducing the cost of borrowing for businesses and consumers, including the cost of mortgage loans. It hopes that the lower rates will encourage companies to build new factories and hire more workers, and consumers to start spending again on homes and cars and clothes and vacations."
That's the ticket! Back to spending what we don't have and overextending ourselves while enriching the banking industry. Never mind that people without jobs HAVE to borrow or they don't HAVE anything to spend.
Posted by NW Portlander | September 21, 2011 4:06 PM
We;ve already seen global businesses sitting on millions/billions in cash, and not hiring in the US. Folks, they no longer need us as consumers here in the good ol' USA for the most part. India, Pakistan, China, parts of S. America - that's where the markets are. I do like Bean's idea to tax the cash holdings over some fairly low threshold. Maybe that would also help kickstart some spending in the US. Or, the money just goes to another entity in another country.
Posted by umpire | September 21, 2011 5:09 PM
OK, this is the definition of insanity - Doing the same thing and expecting different results.
They made long-term money cheaper. Average Joe doesn't have any more money. Yet the banks and companies have plenty of money. They just don't want to tie it up in any long-term investments like plant or expansion.
Look at gold, T-bills or the stock market (at least before today). Those are all going up in price for no real reason besides whoever bought can sell tomorrow and get their money back with the chance of some return greater than lending it out.
Posted by Steve | September 21, 2011 6:21 PM
BTW - Not that banks look any better because of all this thrashing by the Fed:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44613160
Still looks like the "too big to fail" approach hasn't changed one bit since 2009.
Posted by Steve | September 21, 2011 6:24 PM
F'em all. U-pick:
The End Of The World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine) ~ R.E.M. (Pinkpop, 1989)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKdsV9HixbQ
Daysleeper
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dciDcRZovP4
Turn You Inside Out (Live)
"This one goes out to the Exxon Corporation"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-LAnnu09tk
World Leader Pretend ~ (Pinkpop, 1989)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDhOKNlbuwM
Everybody Hurts (Stirling Castle, Scotland)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W7g5YKEEPoI
Stand ("Green" tour film, 1989)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62ANpt9lI4w
Posted by Mojo | September 21, 2011 6:29 PM
The 3.8 percent inflation rate of the past 12 months is not what's hurting Americans. If anything, this move by the Fed is too modest to meet the task.
Posted by Pete | September 21, 2011 10:47 PM
Pete - when people are either unemployed or not getting pay raises if they are employed or their raises are under 3%, then, in fact, 3.8% is big. Real income is declining but perhaps you don't see the bigger picture. You can Google and see that the relative position (adjusted for inflation) of the middle class income is declining.
Posted by LucsAdvo | September 22, 2011 6:11 AM
"this move by the Fed is too modest to meet the task."
Yuu're beginning to sound like 99% of the politicians (and Krugman) - The noly reason things aren't working is because we (govt) haven't spent enough.
I'd think after $1T+ and no results, we may want to reconsider. In addition, based on interest rates, there isn't exactly a tight money situation.
Posted by Steve | September 22, 2011 7:50 AM
The 3.8% inflation rate is a figment of the government's imagination.
If you eat protein, use energy, wear cotton, take medicine, or pay health insurance premiums, you have experienced much higher inflation than any government statistic has captured.
Understating the CPI is the best way to keep Social Security solvent without passing any new legislation.
Posted by Mister Tee | September 23, 2011 8:20 PM