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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on June 17, 2011 8:42 AM. The previous post in this blog was Could you be quiet. The next post in this blog is A tale of two bridges. Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

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Friday, June 17, 2011

Portland's big lie continues

The planning types who are warping Portland's neighborhoods never stop with lines like these:

In the next 25 years, Portland is expected to grow by more than 130,000 households, nearly doubling our population.
Expected by whom? Someone who's been smoking the funny stuff?

To double in 25 years, the population would have to be growing 2.8% a year. According to the Census Bureau, between 2000 and 2010, the actual population growth within the city limits was 0.99% a year -- from 529,121 to 583,776. At that rate, the growth over the next 25 years will be 27.86%.

Over the last 20 years, the rate was even slower: 0.92% a year. And for part of that time, the city had an actual economy.

Whatever the bureaucrats are selling with the supposed population boom as its basis must be bogus.

Comments (35)

The Million are coming! Do your share! What have you sacrificed today for The Million, comrade?

Another liberal crisis debunked. Nice homework! Now the question is will any body listen. Most certainly not. Rationality never trumps the good intentions of liberals.

The 130,000 households number comes from a Metro forecast. But the doubling statement is just wrong. Average household size is just north of 2.0 if I recall, which would mean more like a 40% growth which is consistent with a 1.2-1.3% annual growth rate over 25 years.

Even if you assume 0.9% annual growth you get a 25% increase in population

Looking at county population data going back to 1960, Multnomah County only grew by 2.8% or more once in the last 50 years. I do not have city data, but it is not comparable because much of the growth here was due to annexation.

I second Robert's comment; the growth in the City of Portland was mainly because of annexation until Portland got into the outer Southeast. Portland's population was 373,000 in the 1950 census, 372,000 in the 1960 census, 382,000 in 1970, and 366,000 in 1980, right before Resolution A and the beginning of aggressive annexation. Although the city's population was 437,000 in 1990, I was told once, I believe authoritatively, that in 1990 the population inside the 1960 boundaries was only about 320,000, meaning that the 1960 city had lost about 13% of its population over 30 years.

You forget the Manhattanites are coming and soon.

We have sacrificed enough already, look at the downward spiral our livability in the city has taken since the first myth "lie"
enough gridlock yet?....
but still on that record.

Stop! It is beginning to feel like the punishment of one's finger on the record as it goes round and round!!
millions are coming
millions are coming
millions are coming..................

They just won't let up, will they?

Let's not forget that the growth planning bureaus have mutated over the decades into full blown industries that must make dire growth predictions or they'll have no reason to exist. And, given the large number of California hating ex-Californians that have moved here, it's probably not to difficult to find an audience for the Big Scare, analogous to what went on during parts of the Cold War.

In preparation for all the new climate refugees, Gerdling-Edlen just announced a new line of LEED Gold Port-o-Condos that fit in spaces too skinny for skinny houses and can be assembled in just 1 day.

Abe+1

Portland is seen as a modern day Sutter's Mill. Under-Valued real estate combined with an under-taxed population makes Portland a virtual goldmine for the developer locusts who have decimated their own fields.

They are brilliant in their mining strategy - using front men like Adams to fragment the constituency into ineffective happathy and marginalizing the majority by ignoring them and telling them what they think/believe through master propagandists like Hibbitts.

The City Club is their mini Bilderberg - and we are nothing more than coppertops. Go back to sleep - there's nothing to see here.
All we want is your livability, Portland and we'll get it because we can.

And you will pay, pay, pay.

OK, I'm an adult moving to the Portland AREA - and the jobs, cheaper housing, shorter commute times suggest I might be better off living in Gresham, Hillsboro or Clark County - who would move to Portland proper given the premium paid for housing and the lack of jobs in many industries?

Umpire, that's easy. The answer is "pretty much anyone whose financial issues are settled with a fresh allowance check from Daddy." And yes, that includes the mayor.

Let's not forget the 50 million climate refugees that will be displaced by global warming. Many will set up in the Pearl.

"comes from a Metro forecast"

Well heck, if TriMet helped out too we're golden?

You just wait until California runs out of water, then you'll see millions of climate refugees pouring in. Remember, that's what Multnomah County's Director of Sustainability says. And she should know. Oh, and her favorite video is "The Story of Stuff", in case you'd like to follow along.


"A Bad Economy Means Fewer Babies" -- June 2011, The Atlantic

http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2011/06/a-bad-economy-means-fewer-babies/240529/

Adding to the problem of Planner Propagandists is that Planners don't learn math and percentages in their Planner Havens. They think 1+1=4, and they don't know how to calculate percentages, or how they can be manipulated.

Well, on the last point, maybe they do, but I think it's more of their dumbness than cleverness from my experiences.

I have just finished read a non fiction book called "The Floor of Heaven". It is all about the Klondike gold rush and the grifters, 'sporting ladies', and con men who came out to Alaska as the old west was dying to make their last fortunes at the expense of the settlers and prospectors.
One of the most famous con men of 1898 was a man named Jefferson (Soapy) Smith. He got his nick name by making and then auctioning off his soap. He laced some of the soap wrappers with 50 and 100 bills and the 'marks' bid up the bars of soap hoping to get something for nothing. What they got was nothing.
Soapy ran the town of Skagway for some years before being shot.
If Soapy were alive and living in Portland today he would be the head of the PDC.

There just might be a surge in cross-dressing city employees moving to the area. And how about "major league" soccer fans?!?!? We'll be bursting at the seams with those MLS fans.

Do they also account for those of us planning to get the hell out of here as soon as we can?

They are adding 437 acres to the current 3744 acres.
Brad Schmidt in the comment section of an O story
"the net is smaller because I-5 has been removed. It's hard to imagine any redevelopment activity happening on the freeway, or taxes being generated from a public road.

There's other disturbing components.

Subsidizing mixed-use,
Funding light rail -w debt service probably $65 million
Paying PDC staff/bills with $16.5 million in borrowed TIF money
Vry little on business and industry

http://blog.oregonlive.com/portlandcityhall/2011/06/portland_city_hall_roundup_gro.html

"The boundary additions into the Interstate Corridor actually total about 437 acres, but the net change is much smaller because officials are removing Interstate 5 right of way from the district.

Projects to be prioritized in the district include: mixed-use building Killingsworth Station; a public plaza across from Jefferson High School; and sidewalk and other street improvements on Killingsworth, Russell and Lombard. The new boundary also includes Roosevelt High School, which Portland Public Schools officials requested, although no specific investment has been identified.

PDC has already spent more than $94 million in the Interstate Corridor, and of that, about $36 million -- nearly 40 percent -- went to pay for the Interstate light rail line. The other big-ticket item is the New Columbia housing development, which replaced the notorious Columbia Villa housing project. PDC paid $6.4 million toward that effort. About $17 million has been spent on affordable housing and $16.5 million has paid for agency staff and indirect costs. Less than $5 million has been spent on business and industry efforts. "

Jack, I'm not seeing that quote - "In the next 25 years, Portland is expected to grow by more than 130,000 households, nearly doubling our population" - in the article you link to. Does it come from something else or did they make a change? What I see in that article now says, "In the next 25 years, Portland is expected to grow by 105,000-136,000 households."

Soon Gone said, "Do they also account for those of us planning to get the hell out of here as soon as we can?" I suspect there are many of us who feel that way and will leave as soon as possible.

"In the next 25 years"

Remember the trick is to spend all your time solving the 25 year out maybe problems so that the voters can't see you have no clue on what to do today.

Makes it a lot easier to invent your work load this way also instead of addressing what really needs to be done (like they'd have a clue.)

Ladies and Gentlemen...step right up.
Under this walnut shell I have a small pea, and these 2 are empty, now just watch my hands as I move the shells around on this board...Look! there is the pea.
Now who wants to guess under which shell the pea will be?
Just pay your 25 cents and take a guess and win this jackpot of quarters...now follow my hands...closely....
Sorry you missed this one...take another chance...only 25 cents!!!
The principle of the game never changes...fleece the stooges...

Just wait 'til climate change brings decades of drought to the PNW. Let 'em drink Perrier! Or, Willamette River "water". Or, the Columbia's glow-in-the-dark brand.

Just put a bird on it! A pterodactyl.

Steve,
My thoughts as well. . when they come around to discuss 2020 and what to plan for 2040!

In addition to taking the focus off of not addressing today's problems, the focus can then be put on what "needs" to be done for the future and in my view that works for continuing the fleecing of Portland.

The offending document has been updated to indicate a range for the household growth and remove the comment about population, which was clearly wrong.

"The offending document has been updated"

You mean made less fabulizing?

If there are no new jobs in Portland, anyone that moves here is probably moving to Hillsboro - No matter how much they try to make Portland into an adult Disneyland.

Remember these are the same guys that keep pouring $0.90 or every public development dollar downtown which is still bleeding jobs in the past 15 years.

It's nice they corrected it.

It's criminal that they'll make the same "mistake" again very soon.

Lying about population growth is very, very Bicycle Rex and Sustainable Susan. You really have to watch those folks.

I remember reading about Soapy Smith. He's still something of an icon there.

If global warming is true, and all of the water levels rise...why would anyone want to live in Portland whose elevation is less than 100 feet above sea level?

Wouldn't we want to live in...oh, Boise? Or Missoula? Or Spokane?

None of this stuff is ever about common sense or even saving the planet. It's about lining the pockets of developers, and starry-eyed noobs that want to feel good about their carbon footprint keep enabling it ...

Msmith said it all above... the new Sutter's Mill.

If the Million More future includes PDC's cost in "agency staff and indirect costs" as Ben quoted above in Interstates URA PDC costs, then there won't be any money left to Plan. Interstate's $16.5 Million for staff out of the $94 Million spent is almost a 20% administrative cost. Astonishing!

But considering PDC admits to 12% to 15% for SoWhat, I guess we just have to swallow it. Who are we, the taxpayer providers, to critique? PDC has become a government workers full-employment agency.


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