Detail, east Portland photo, courtesy Miles Hochstein / Portland Ground.

For old times' sake
The bojack bumper sticker -- only $1.50!

To order, click here.

Excellent tunes -- free! And on your browser right now. Just click on Radio Bojack!

E-mail us here.


This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on May 15, 2011 10:44 AM. The previous post in this blog was Fukushima reactor 1 back to square 1. The next post in this blog is Thankin' the Lord for her fingers. Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.



Law and Taxation
How Appealing
TaxProf Blog
Mauled Again
Tax Appellate Blog
A Taxing Matter
Josh Marquis
Native America, Discovered and Conquered
The Yin Blog
Ernie the Attorney
Above the Law
The Volokh Conspiracy
Going Concern
Bag and Baggage
Wealth Strategies Journal
Jim Hamilton's World of Securities Regulation
World of Work
The Faculty Lounge
Lowering the Bar
OrCon Law

Hap'nin' Guys
Tony Pierce
Parkway Rest Stop
Along the Gradyent
Dwight Jaynes
Bob Borden
Dingleberry Gazette
The Red Electric
Iced Borscht
Jeremy Blachman
Dean's Rhetorical Flourish
Straight White Guy
As Time Goes By
Dave Wagner
Jeff Selis
Alas, a Blog
Scott Hendison
The View Through the Windshield
Appliance Blog
The Bleat

Hap'nin' Gals
My Whim is Law
Lelo in Nopo
Attorney at Large
Linda Kruschke
The Non-Consumer Advocate
10 Steps to Finding Your Happy Place
A Pig of Success
Attorney at Large
Margaret and Helen
Kimberlee Jaynes
Cornelia Seigneur
And Sew It Goes
Mile 73
Rainy Day Thoughts
That Black Girl
Posie Gets Cozy
Cat Eyes
Rhi in Pink
Ragwaters, Bitters, and Blue Ruin
Rose City Journal
Type Like the Wind

Portland and Oregon
Isaac Laquedem
Rantings of a [Censored] Bus Driver
Jeff Mapes
Vintage Portland
The Portlander
South Waterfront
Amanda Fritz
O City Hall Reporters
Guilty Carnivore
Old Town by Larry Norton
The Alaunt
Bend Blogs
Lost Oregon
Cafe Unknown
Tin Zeroes
David's Oregon Picayune
Mark Nelsen's Weather Blog
Travel Oregon Blog
Portland Daily Photo
Portland Building Ads
Portland Food and
Dave Knows Portland
Idaho's Portugal
Alameda Old House History
MLK in Motion

Retired from Blogging
Various Observations...
The Daily E-Mail
Saving James
Portland Freelancer
Furious Nads (b!X)
Izzle Pfaff
The Grich
Kevin Allman
AboutItAll - Oregon
Lost in the Details
Worldwide Pablo
Tales from the Stump
Whitman Boys
Two Pennies
This Stony Planet
1221 SW 4th
I am a Fish
Here Today
What If...?
Superinky Fixations
The Rural Bus Route
Another Blogger
Mikeyman's Computer Treehouse
Portland Housing Blog

Wonderfully Wacky
Dave Barry
Borowitz Report
Stuff White People Like
Worst of the Web

Valuable Time-Wasters
My Gallery of Jacks
Litterbox, On the Prowl
Litterbox, Bag of Bones
Litterbox, Scratch
Ride That Donkey
Singin' Horses
Rally Monkey
Simon Swears
Strong Bad's E-mail

Oregon News
The Oregonian
Portland Tribune
Willamette Week
The Sentinel
Southeast Examiner
Northwest Examiner
Sellwood Bee
Mid-County Memo
Vancouver Voice
Eugene Register-Guard
OPB - Portland
Salem Statesman-Journal
Oregon Capitol News
Portland Business Journal
Daily Journal of Commerce
Oregon Business
Portland Info Net
McMinnville News Register
Lake Oswego Review
The Daily Astorian
Bend Bulletin
Corvallis Gazette-Times
Roseburg News-Review
Medford Mail-Tribune
Ashland Daily Tidings
Newport News-Times
Albany Democrat-Herald
The Eugene Weekly
Portland IndyMedia
The Columbian

The Beatles
Bruce Springsteen
Joni Mitchell
Ella Fitzgerald
Steve Earle
Joe Ely
Stevie Wonder
Lou Rawls

E-mail, Feeds, 'n' Stuff

Sunday, May 15, 2011

Why no media polls on Portland school tax ballot measures?

Here Portlanders are, voting in the largest bond election in state history, and yet apparently no one in our local media has bothered to take an unofficial poll to see how the dual bond measures are doing. Could it be that the press is just too broke to afford these kinds of straw votes any more?

With a seven-figure war chest, the proponents of the measures surely have taken a poll or two. Wonder what they've learned.

Comments (34)

I'm sure the polls are not in favor of the bond. Otherwise, you'd be gettting another 26 pieces of glossy mail to throw out saying how much Portland supports it.

They are looking for cover from this debacle. Maybe next time we can have an adult conversation about the school issues before we get to this point.

I was wondering the same thing, and I think we all can figure out why, “most likely voters,” smell rats!

obviously it's not what they want to share...

I've thought the same thing. I don't think the "yes" campaign is hearing what they want to hear.

It's completely anecdotal but I've seen many comments between the O, WW, and even the Mercury along the lines of "I'm a liberal,and I have always voted for these things, but I'm voting no this time."

I love fishing for spring chinook this time of the year. Nothing much like catching a world class fish with the Portland cityscape in the backdrop.

The many days I spend out on the river include a diverse group of Portlanders, who are often invited along on the daily trips. Business leaders, attorneys, doctors, the unemployed, stay at home dads and moms. All of them with varied cultural backgrounds, with Oregon fishing as our most common bond.

When the fishing gets slow the conversations often turn to local politics. Having the opportunity to talk with so many Portlanders about this and other local issues I can only offer my very own unofficial fishing poll (sorry)

Based on this very unscientific survey I would predict this bond fails (59% to 41%). Understand however that the results of this fishing poll may vary + or - 20 points.

I have to wonder about the theoy that the TV stations are "..too broke..." to do a poll. While the current bond and levy election within the PPS district isn't generating ad revenue like a November statewide general election, the stations in PDX are reaping some ad revenue from the contractor financed pro side.

Yesterday (Saturday) one of the stations (? 2 or 8 cant remember which) had a repoter interviewing a door to door "pro" canvasser. The canvasser said, without citation to any actual polling results, that"...we know we're ahead..."

It is certainly curious that there are no polling data out in the public view.

Sort of like the Sherlock Holmes' story about the race horse, with the line about the significance of the barking dog. Watson says, the dog did not bark, and Holmes replies to the effect "Yes, Watson, that is what is so significant."

We will all know by Wednesday night.

Looking at the list of contributors to the pro-vote side, I see that Davis, Hibbits and Midghall have contributed north of $20,000. I would guess they would be doing some focus groups and polling for the PPS bond.

All the usual corporate suspects can be seen supporting the bond. Part of the gravy train.

Please know that most of our News Professionals have aspirations of becoming a media contact person (spin/pitch) with a governmental agency at some point in their career and don't wish to burn any bridges.

Thanks, Gibby, for the fishing poll.

Unofficial eastside friends & neighbors poll: The nays have it.

The pro bond people know they're ahead by a slight margin. They're keeping it quiet because they want to suppress turnout against the bond.

I'll bet if Jack ran a poll it would be 90% no on the capital & 50/50 on the operating levy.

Steve is right. If the polls were running in favor of the bond, we'd be getting flooded with glossies saying how much Portlanders love school bonds.

Pdxmick seems to be pretty close. This site says 81% against the bond and 65% against the levy.

I've known Mike Riley of Riley Research for many years; and the simple fact that Channel 8 (or any other organization) didn't hire his company to do a poll speaks volumes about the "popularity" of these school bonds.

My take:
It is much easier to play with the election machine returns when no polls have been reported.

Do the research on elections in our country, also on link below,
click: Go to your State.

PDX Mick is right about a poll result on the bond issue here. It would be 90% against.

We all need to remember that this group self selects, and we are in a number of ways listening to echoes of our own opinions.

We are not representative. We are correct, but not representative.

Talk about prophets without honor in their own country.

I'm not sure the levy would get 50% yes in a poll among folks who post here.

I think the levy will get 50% in the distict wide vote.

My fishing poll out around Fred's Marina to the beginning of Multnomah Channel is 89% against both. But then I didn't look at their precinct cards to know if they are even valid voters because we were being harassed by seals. Next door boat lost a springer to a seal and tore up his net, but he saved his rigging after a 45 minute battle. He said he saved over $100 dollars by saving his rigging. That's determination. Now we need that kind of tenacity to defeat PPS's bond and levy.

Please vote because it sends a message on several regional money and policy issues. Lower voter turnout benefits PPS because they will certainly be having many PPS personnel, unions, contractor unions, public employees out in force. Watch the phone banks rigging your phones. Wouldn't it be nice to have phone banks from these same groups that are opposed to the bond and levy making calls? I did receive a call a few days ago doing exactly that.

The absense of reports on polling is not only bad news for the yes vote it is very bad news.

Because it would have been easy for, and expected, the yes campaign to concoct a poll that provided favorable results unless it was failing my a large margin.

I suspect there has been polling, push polling and anything else imaginable.

But the silence reveals it did not go well.

What a waste of money the campaign and ballot has been.

Heads should roll.

Perhaps they, too, have children being held hostage and don't want to do anything to anger the power mongers and decision makers.

Or thinking more deviously, perhaps reporting nothing is meant to keep it out the average voter's consciousness and encourage a very low voter turnout, except from the supporters, of course, who'll be there 100%, similar to the election of our ignominious mayor.

If there are no polls, there is no reference to which to compare the outcome, therefore no way of knowing whether in fact the vote count is accurate.

DHM Survey, Between September 1 and 6, 2010, DHM Research conducted a random scientific telephone survey of 400 likely voters (those who have voted in at least 2 of the last 4 general and primary elections) living within the PPS District

The Portland Public Schools may ask voters to approve a bond measure sometime in the near future. Let me read the wording of that proposed measure to you. It reads: Portland Public Schools bond to update local school buildings. Shall Portland Schools restore, rebuild, increase safety of public school facilities; issue $500 million in general obligation bonds, with citizen oversight? As of today, would you vote for a bond measure like that, or against it?
62% for, 30% against, 9% undecided

This bond measure would amount to about $2 per $1,000 of assessed valuation of a home. This would be about $30 per month for the average homeowner in the district over the next five years, and would pay to renovate school buildings that are 50 to 60 years old. Knowing this, would you vote for or against the bond measure for Portland Public Schools I just described?

Suppose the district asked voters to approve a less expensive bond measure than I just read you. It would read: Portland Public Schools bond to make repairs. Shall Schools make urgent repairs, increase safety of public school facilities; issue $300 million in general obligation bonds, with citizen oversight? As of today, would you vote for a measure like that, or against it?

This bond measure would amount to about $1.25 per $1000 of assessed valuation of a home. This would be about $18 per month for the average homeowner in the district over the next five years, and would fund only the most urgently needed repairs to schools. It would not fund the upgrading or modernizing of schools that are between 50 and 60 years old. Knowing this, would you vote for this measure or against it?

The Portland Public Schools may also ask voters to renew a local option levy in the near future. The measure would read: Portland Public Schools levy for teachers, classrooms, educational programs, learning materials. Shall schools protect class size, restore teaching positions, levy $1.70 per $1000 of assessed value for five years, require oversight? If this levy is up for renewal in the next year or so, would you vote for it, or against it?

This levy would provide funding to retain about 350 current teachers, and also restore additional teaching positions and educational programs that have been cut, at a cost to the average homeowner of about $25 per month in property taxes over the next five years. Knowing this, would you vote yes, to renew the levy, or no, against renewing the levy?

Income of respondents -

25-50 - 21%
50-75 - 24%
75-100 - $13%
100+ - 20%
refused - 9%

There's poll on KATU's site (I'm sure it's not scientific) that's got the bond losing by a large margin.

Gosh Nick,
PPS should publicize that one sided 9 month old poll that was taken before all of the public discussion.

Just think how convincing it would be for others to wanna get on board. :)

There might be something to the wisdom of not biting the hand that feeds the local media.

From today's Fish Wrapper the "O"
Leaders of the campaign, which has paid for $50,000 worth of polling from a top-drawer firm this year, won't say what those polls have shown. But it's clear from the sustained vigorous campaign they're mounting in the final days that they expect the vote to be close -- much closer than for a separate tax increase to retain teaching jobs in Portland. The campaign is barely mentioning the reasons they think voters should support that tax, presumably because polls suggest it's a sure bet to pass.

On Friday, a man with a clipboard knocked on my door and said he was with the "Irvington Elementary School". He asked whether I'd turned in my ballot yet. I said no, but that election day is Tuesday and I planned to turn it in myself by then. He told me that Sunday was the last day I could turn my ballot it and that he did not know anything about Tuesday being election day. The man was heavily tattooed and pierced, shabbily dressed and traveling on a bike that appeared to carry all his worldly possessions. When I asked if he was a paid canvasser, he said he was a volunteer. Seriously?

"Perhaps they, too, have children being held hostage and don't want to do anything to anger the power mongers and decision makers."

And to avoid that hostage feeling, they could take their kids out of public school to private or home school. Problem solved.

There is a poll happening on Portland Business Journal if anyone is interested:

Hi there. We're having an unofficial poll on The Oregonian Facebook page.

Check it out and vote!

I saw a lot of yes signs on people's lawns in Irvington the other day.

This one might be close.

If the PPS Bonds pass tomorrow, it will just be one more let down, for it does not bode well for the health of our city.

No matter how it goes, some parents and children who want it will feel awful if it fails. They need to put pressure on decision makers around here who have used up our resources on pet projects and let the children's needs go unmet.

At any rate, I see this as a very divisive matter in our community. This has happened as a result of horrible leadership. Citizens who cannot afford this should not have to make up for unwise decisions.


As a lawyer/blogger, I get
to be a member of:

In Vino Veritas

Lange, Pinot Gris 2015
Kiona, Lemberger 2014
Willamette Valley, Pinot Gris 2015
Aix, Rosé de Provence 2016
Marchigüe, Cabernet 2013
Inazío Irruzola, Getariako Txakolina Rosé 2015
Maso Canali, Pinot Grigio 2015
Campo Viejo, Rioja Reserva 2011
Kirkland, Côtes de Provence Rosé 2016
Cantele, Salice Salentino Reserva 2013
Whispering Angel, Côtes de Provence Rosé 2013
Avissi, Prosecco
Cleto Charli, Lambrusco di Sorbara Secco, Vecchia Modena
Pique Poul, Rosé 2016
Edmunds St. John, Bone-Jolly Rosé 2016
Stoller, Pinot Noir Rosé 2016
Chehalem, Inox Chardonnay 2015
The Four Graces, Pinot Gris 2015
Gascón, Colosal Red 2013
Cardwell Hill, Pinot Gris 2015
L'Ecole No. 41, Merlot 2013
Della Terra, Anonymus
Willamette Valley, Dijon Clone Chardonnay 2013
Wraith, Cabernet, Eidolon Estate 2012
Januik, Red 2015
Tomassi, Valpolicella, Rafaél, 2014
Sharecropper's Pinot Noir 2013
Helix, Pomatia Red Blend 2013
La Espera, Cabernet 2011
Campo Viejo, Rioja Reserva 2011
Villa Antinori, Toscana 2013
Locations, Spanish Red Wine
Locations, Argentinian Red Wine
La Antigua Clásico, Rioja 2011
Shatter, Grenache, Maury 2012
Argyle, Vintage Brut 2011
Abacela, Vintner's Blend #16 Abacela, Fiesta Tempranillo 2014
Benton Hill, Pinot Gris 2015
Primarius, Pinot Gris 2015
Januik, Merlot 2013
Napa Cellars, Cabernet 2013
J. Bookwalter, Protagonist 2012
LAN, Rioja Edicion Limitada 2011
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 2009
Denada Cellars, Cabernet, Maipo Valley 2014
Marchigüe, Cabernet, Colchagua Valley 2013
Oberon, Cabernet 2014
Hedges, Red Mountain 2012
Balboa, Rose of Grenache 2015
Ontañón, Rioja Reserva 2015
Three Horse Ranch, Pinot Gris 2014
Archery Summit, Vireton Pinot Gris 2014
Nelms Road, Merlot 2013
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Pinot Gris 2014
Conn Creek, Cabernet, Napa 2012
Conn Creek, Cabernet, Napa 2013
Villa Maria, Sauvignon Blanc 2015
G3, Cabernet 2013
Chateau Smith, Cabernet, Washington State 2014
Abacela, Vintner's Blend #16
Willamette Valley, Rose of Pinot Noir, Whole Clusters 2015
Albero, Bobal Rose 2015
Ca' del Baio Barbaresco Valgrande 2012
Goodfellow, Reserve Pinot Gris, Clover 2014
Lugana, San Benedetto 2014
Wente, Cabernet, Charles Wetmore 2011
La Espera, Cabernet 2011
King Estate, Pinot Gris 2015
Adelsheim, Pinot Gris 2015
Trader Joe's, Pinot Gris, Willamette Valley 2015
La Vite Lucente, Toscana Red 2013
St. Francis, Cabernet, Sonoma 2013
Kendall-Jackson, Pinot Noir, California 2013
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Napa Valley 2013
Erath, Pinot Noir, Estate Selection 2012
Abbot's Table, Columbia Valley 2014
Intrinsic, Cabernet 2014
Oyster Bay, Pinot Noir 2010
Occhipinti, SP68 Bianco 2014
Layer Cake, Shiraz 2013
Desert Wind, Ruah 2011
WillaKenzie, Pinot Gris 2014
Abacela, Fiesta Tempranillo 2013
Des Amis, Rose 2014
Dunham, Trautina 2012
RoxyAnn, Claret 2012
Del Ri, Claret 2012
Stoppa, Emilia, Red 2004
Primarius, Pinot Noir 2013
Domaines Bunan, Bandol Rose 2015
Albero, Bobal Rose 2015
Deer Creek, Pinot Gris 2015
Beaulieu, Rutherford Cabernet 2013
Archery Summit, Vireton Pinot Gris 2014
King Estate, Pinot Gris, Backbone 2014
Oberon, Napa Cabernet 2013
Apaltagua, Envero Carmenere Gran Reserva 2013
Chateau des Arnauds, Cuvee des Capucins 2012
Nine Hats, Red 2013
Benziger, Cabernet, Sonoma 2012
Roxy Ann, Claret 2012
Januik, Merlot 2012
Conundrum, White 2013
St. Francis, Sonoma Cabernet 2012

The Occasional Book

Phil Stanford - Rose City Vice
Kenneth R. Feinberg - What is Life Worth?
Kent Haruf - Our Souls at Night
Peter Carey - True History of the Kelly Gang
Suzanne Collins - The Hunger Games
Amy Stewart - Girl Waits With Gun
Philip Roth - The Plot Against America
Norm Macdonald - Based on a True Story
Christopher Buckley - Boomsday
Ryan Holiday - The Obstacle is the Way
Ruth Sepetys - Between Shades of Gray
Richard Adams - Watership Down
Claire Vaye Watkins - Gold Fame Citrus
Markus Zusak - I am the Messenger
Anthony Doerr - All the Light We Cannot See
James Joyce - Dubliners
Cheryl Strayed - Torch
William Golding - Lord of the Flies
Saul Bellow - Mister Sammler's Planet
Phil Stanford - White House Call Girl
John Kaplan & Jon R. Waltz - The Trial of Jack Ruby
Kent Haruf - Eventide
David Halberstam - Summer of '49
Norman Mailer - The Naked and the Dead
Maria Dermoȗt - The Ten Thousand Things
William Faulkner - As I Lay Dying
Markus Zusak - The Book Thief
Christopher Buckley - Thank You for Smoking
William Shakespeare - Othello
Joseph Conrad - Heart of Darkness
Bill Bryson - A Short History of Nearly Everything
Cheryl Strayed - Tiny Beautiful Things
Sara Varon - Bake Sale
Stephen King - 11/22/63
Paul Goldstein - Errors and Omissions
Mark Twain - A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur's Court
Steve Martin - Born Standing Up: A Comic's Life
Beverly Cleary - A Girl from Yamhill, a Memoir
Kent Haruf - Plainsong
Hope Larson - A Wrinkle in Time, the Graphic Novel
Rudyard Kipling - Kim
Peter Ames Carlin - Bruce
Fran Cannon Slayton - When the Whistle Blows
Neil Young - Waging Heavy Peace
Mark Bego - Aretha Franklin, the Queen of Soul (2012 ed.)
Jenny Lawson - Let's Pretend This Never Happened
J.D. Salinger - Franny and Zooey
Charles Dickens - A Christmas Carol
Timothy Egan - The Big Burn
Deborah Eisenberg - Transactions in a Foreign Currency
Kurt Vonnegut Jr. - Slaughterhouse Five
Kathryn Lance - Pandora's Genes
Cheryl Strayed - Wild
Fyodor Dostoyevsky - The Brothers Karamazov
Jack London - The House of Pride, and Other Tales of Hawaii
Jack Walker - The Extraordinary Rendition of Vincent Dellamaria
Colum McCann - Let the Great World Spin
Niccolò Machiavelli - The Prince
Harper Lee - To Kill a Mockingbird
Emma McLaughlin & Nicola Kraus - The Nanny Diaries
Brian Selznick - The Invention of Hugo Cabret
Sharon Creech - Walk Two Moons
Keith Richards - Life
F. Sionil Jose - Dusk
Natalie Babbitt - Tuck Everlasting
Justin Halpern - S#*t My Dad Says
Mark Herrmann - The Curmudgeon's Guide to Practicing Law
Barry Glassner - The Gospel of Food
Phil Stanford - The Peyton-Allan Files
Jesse Katz - The Opposite Field
Evelyn Waugh - Brideshead Revisited
J.K. Rowling - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
David Sedaris - Holidays on Ice
Donald Miller - A Million Miles in a Thousand Years
Mitch Albom - Have a Little Faith
C.S. Lewis - The Magician's Nephew
F. Scott Fitzgerald - The Great Gatsby
William Shakespeare - A Midsummer Night's Dream
Ivan Doig - Bucking the Sun
Penda Diakité - I Lost My Tooth in Africa
Grace Lin - The Year of the Rat
Oscar Hijuelos - Mr. Ives' Christmas
Madeline L'Engle - A Wrinkle in Time
Steven Hart - The Last Three Miles
David Sedaris - Me Talk Pretty One Day
Karen Armstrong - The Spiral Staircase
Charles Larson - The Portland Murders
Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
Steven D. Stark - Meet the Beatles
Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
Rick Moody - Garden State
Jonathan Schwartz - All in Good Time
David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim
Anthony Holden - Big Deal
Robert J. Spitzer - The Spirit of Leadership
James McManus - Positively Fifth Street
Jeff Noon - Vurt

Road Work

Miles run year to date: 113
At this date last year: 155
Total run in 2016: 155
In 2015: 271
In 2014: 401
In 2013: 257
In 2012: 129
In 2011: 113
In 2010: 125
In 2009: 67
In 2008: 28
In 2007: 113
In 2006: 100
In 2005: 149
In 2004: 204
In 2003: 269

Clicky Web Analytics