Portland school construction bond election tightening up (Jack Bog's Blog)

While the population sleeps, Multnomah County election results inevitably shift to the left, and the Portland school tax construction bond election is no exception to the rule. Just after 3 a.m., some new results were posted by the county elections bureau, and they show the race getting closer. The no votes are still ahead, but by far less than they were a few hours ago. The margin for the no votes is now only about 1.5%, whereas just after midnight it was about 5%. Here are the latest numbers:

Construction bond, Measure 26-121 $2 per $1,000
County	Yes	No
Washington	406	474
Clackamas	43	64
Multnomah	49,922	51,346
Total	50,371 49.26%	51,884 50.74%

That's a margin of only 1,513 votes. It's not clear at this late hour how many more votes are to be counted; if last November is any indication, it could be weeks before the final tallies are available. Multnomah County is not promising any further updates until about 4:00 this afternoon. Our earlier comments on the apparent outcome of the election are here.

UPDATE, 6:46 a.m.: The O is reporting now that "nearly 85 percent" of the votes have been counted. That would leave about 18,000 votes left to be counted. They'd have to be about 54.5% yes to 45.5% no for the bond measure to pass. Seems unlikely, but stranger things have happened.

Comments (17)

Never fear: MultCo will keep counting until the measures win. Then they'll quit looking for more ballots.

Posted by Mister Tee | May 18, 2011 5:44 AM

"Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men? The Shadow knows!"

Posted by David E Gilmore | May 18, 2011 6:24 AM

The O and KGW are reporting this am that their prediction is form the Levy to pass and the Bond to be defeated.

Posted by Portland Native | May 18, 2011 6:42 AM

The levy is definitely passed. The bond will be close, but most likely defeated.

Posted by Jack Bog | May 18, 2011 6:57 AM

At the current trend, I'd actually bet that the bond passes (but I wouldn't put much money on it). Late ballots - those counted after 8pm - have been breaking 57% in favor. The most recent batch broke 59% in favor. The bond needs 54.5% of remaining ballots to go "yes" in order to pass. I wouldn't be surprised by either outcome, but I think it's probably just barely more likely that it passes at this rate.

Posted by Henry Kraemer | May 18, 2011 7:13 AM

Where have I seen this before?

Posted by Lawrence | May 18, 2011 7:21 AM

Time to disqualify ballots, find uncounted ballots in the trunk of someone's car, find ballots in a box under the table. Never fear, it can be rigged, and typically it is.

Posted by Native Oregonian | May 18, 2011 7:26 AM

Is there an equivalent drift in the levy vote as well?

Posted by Lawrence | May 18, 2011 7:41 AM

It ain't over 'til it's over. Remember how Randy's fire bond was trailing 95% of the time last election until enough votes trickled in to put it over the top by a minuscule margin?

Posted by Eric | May 18, 2011 8:34 AM

Ain't vote-by-mail grand?

Posted by Mr. Grumpy | May 18, 2011 8:37 AM

My ballot disappeared for a while, and much to my disgust I was getting mentally ready to go down to elections to get a replacement to make sure my NO vote counted. As Fortuna happened, I was changing into my dance shoes on Monday night at the tango milonga and I found the envelope slipped between the two shoeboxes in my dance tote. Very fitting.

Posted by gaye harris | May 18, 2011 8:41 AM

Quick dispatch someone to Seattle, they are always good for a few hundred/thousand votes that are just laying around.

Posted by pj | May 18, 2011 9:03 AM

The bond lost. Guaranteed. Moving on now, and getting ready to vote NO in any future attempt.

Posted by the other white meat | May 18, 2011 10:07 AM

Oregonian says there are 16,000 Mult. Co. ballots left. Would have to break 55% yes to overcome current spread, but it is tightening up.

Posted by Snards | May 18, 2011 10:39 AM

I have a feeling in my gut that the bond will pass. We're talking north of half a billion dollars here, with over $1million spent by the unions and contractors to push it.

This close, they'll find a way to "pass" it.

Posted by PD | May 18, 2011 10:48 AM

Suspicions such as these are one reason that the local rightists have been calling on Multnomah County to follow the state law that requires the county to destroy all unused ballots promptly after 8:00 p.m. on election day, something the county persistently refuses to do despite the clear state mandate to do so.

Posted by Isaac Laquedem | May 18, 2011 12:37 PM

As of 3:17PM:

"Here is the tally:

YES 58,730 49.5%

NO 59,814 50.5%

The Oregonian's totals include votes cast in the small portions of Portland Public Schools that lie in Washington and Clackamas counties along with the Multnomah totals.

There are now about 1,000 potential votes uncounted, according to Multnomah elections director Tim Scott -- too few votes to change the outcome of the bond vote. And the margin, while narrow, is far larger than the two-tenths of 1 percent difference that triggers an automatic recount."
http://www.oregonlive.com/portland/index.ssf/2011/05/portland_schools_bond_results.html

Posted by Gardiner Menefree | May 18, 2011 3:46 PM

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Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Portland school construction bond election tightening up

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