Portland school construction bond election tightening up
While the population sleeps, Multnomah County election results inevitably shift to the left, and the Portland school tax construction bond election is no exception to the rule. Just after 3 a.m., some new results were posted by the county elections bureau, and they show the race getting closer. The no votes are still ahead, but by far less than they were a few hours ago. The margin for the no votes is now only about 1.5%, whereas just after midnight it was about 5%. Here are the latest numbers:
That's a margin of only 1,513 votes. It's not clear at this late hour how many more votes are to be counted; if last November is any indication, it could be weeks before the final tallies are available. Multnomah County is not promising any further updates until about 4:00 this afternoon. Our earlier comments on the apparent outcome of the election are here.
UPDATE, 6:46 a.m.: The O is reporting now that "nearly 85 percent" of the votes have been counted. That would leave about 18,000 votes left to be counted. They'd have to be about 54.5% yes to 45.5% no for the bond measure to pass. Seems unlikely, but stranger things have happened.
Comments (17)
Never fear: MultCo will keep counting until the measures win. Then they'll quit looking for more ballots.
At the current trend, I'd actually bet that the bond passes (but I wouldn't put much money on it). Late ballots - those counted after 8pm - have been breaking 57% in favor. The most recent batch broke 59% in favor. The bond needs 54.5% of remaining ballots to go "yes" in order to pass. I wouldn't be surprised by either outcome, but I think it's probably just barely more likely that it passes at this rate.
Time to disqualify ballots, find uncounted ballots in the trunk of someone's car, find ballots in a box under the table. Never fear, it can be rigged, and typically it is.
It ain't over 'til it's over. Remember how Randy's fire bond was trailing 95% of the time last election until enough votes trickled in to put it over the top by a minuscule margin?
My ballot disappeared for a while, and much to my disgust I was getting mentally ready to go down to elections to get a replacement to make sure my NO vote counted. As Fortuna happened, I was changing into my dance shoes on Monday night at the tango milonga and I found the envelope slipped between the two shoeboxes in my dance tote. Very fitting.
I have a feeling in my gut that the bond will pass. We're talking north of half a billion dollars here, with over $1million spent by the unions and contractors to push it.
Suspicions such as these are one reason that the local rightists have been calling on Multnomah County to follow the state law that requires the county to destroy all unused ballots promptly after 8:00 p.m. on election day, something the county persistently refuses to do despite the clear state mandate to do so.
The Oregonian's totals include votes cast in the small portions of Portland Public Schools that lie in Washington and Clackamas counties along with the Multnomah totals.
There are now about 1,000 potential votes uncounted, according to Multnomah elections director Tim Scott -- too few votes to change the outcome of the bond vote. And the margin, while narrow, is far larger than the two-tenths of 1 percent difference that triggers an automatic recount." http://www.oregonlive.com/portland/index.ssf/2011/05/portland_schools_bond_results.html
Charamba, Douro 2008
Horse Heaven Hills, Cabernet 2010
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills Pinot Grigio 2011
Avignonesi, Montepulciano 2004
Lorelle, Willamette Valley Pinot Noir 2011
Villa Antinori, Toscana 2007
Mercedes Eguren, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
Lorelle, Columbia Valley Cabernet 2011
Purple Moon, Merlot 2011
Purple Moon, Chardonnnay 2011
Abacela, Vintner's Blend No. 12
Opula Red Blend 2010
Liberte, Pinot Noir 2010
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Indian Wells Red Blend 2010
Woodbridge, Chardonnay 2011
King Estate, Pinot Noir 2011
Famille Perrin, Cotes du Rhone Villages 2010
Columbia Crest, Les Chevaux Red 2010
14 Hands, Hot to Trot White Blend
Familia Bianchi, Malbec 2009
Terrapin Cellars, Pinot Gris 2011
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2009
Campo Viejo, Rioja, Termpranillo 2010
Ravenswood, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2010
Waterbrook, Reserve Merlot 2009
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills, Pinot Grigio 2011
Tarantas, Rose
Chateau Lajarre, Bordeaux 2009
La Vielle Ferme, Rose 2011
Benvolio, Pinot Grigio 2011
Nobilo Icon, Pinot Noir 2009
Lello, Douro Tinto 2009
Quinson Fils, Cotes de Provence Rose 2011
Anindor, Pinot Gris 2010
Buenas Ondas, Syrah Rose 2010
Les Fiefs d'Anglars, Malbec 2009
14 Hands, Pinot Gris 2011
Conundrum 2012
Condes de Albarei, Albariño 2011
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2007
Penelope Sanchez, Garnacha Syrah 2010
Canoe Ridge, Merlot 2007
Atalaya do Mar, Godello 2010
Vega Montan, Mencia
Benvolio, Pinot Grigio
Nobilo Icon, Pinot Noir, Marlborough 2009
Portuga, Rose 2011
Revelation, Chardonnay, Pays d'Oc 2010
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 2005
Monte Alto, Tinto Reserva 2005
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Cabernet, Indian Wells 2009
Espiral, Vinho Rose
Vin-Koru, Pinot Gris 2011
14 Hands, Hot to Trot Red 2009
Rodney Strong, Cabernet, Sonoma 2009
Abacela, Vintner's Blend #11
Portuga, White 2010
La Bourgeoisie, Red 2009
Januik, Red 2009
Three Rivers, River's Red 2008
Kirkland, Alexander Valley Merlot 2008
Muga, Rioja Rose 2010
Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2009
Mauro Molino, Barbera d'Alba 2009
Garda Chiaretto Rose
Columbia Crest, Two Vines Vineyard 10 White
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Pinot Gris, Columbia Valley 2009
L'Hortus, Rose de Saignee 2010
Maculan, Pino & Toi 2008
McKinley Springs, Bombing Range Red 2008
Trader Joe's Pinot Gris 2009
Montes Alpha, Cabernet 2007
Gran Sasso, Sangiovese, Terre di Chieti 2009
Garda, Classico Chiaretto Rose
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 1999
Picos del Montgo, Tempranillo 2008
Chateau de Montmirail, Vacqueyras 2008
La Granja 360, Syrah 2009
Montgras, Carmenere Reserva 2009
Lange, Pinot Gris 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Cabernet 2008
Kirkland, Pinot Grigio 2010
Trader Joe's Coastal Syrah 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Merlot 2008
Trader Joe's Coastal Chardonnay 2009
Vieux Papes Red
Domaine de l'Aujardiere, Chardonnay 2009
Santa Rita, Cabernet, Medalla Real 2007
Penfold's, Koonunga Hill Shiraz Cabernet 2008
Guild, Red, Lot #02 2008
Dievole, Dievolino Sangiovese 2008
Laforet, Burgogne Chardonnay 2009
Columbia Winery, Merlot 2007
Bonterra, Cabernet 2008
Elk Cove, Pinot Gris 2009
Maquis Lien 2006
Scott Paul, Pinot Noir, Le Paulee 2007
The Occasional Book
Hope Larson - A Wrinkle in Time, the Graphic Novel
Rudyard Kipling - Kim
Peter Ames Carlin - Bruce
Fran Cannon Slayton - When the Whistle Blows
Neil Young - Waging Heavy Peace
Mark Bego - Aretha Franklin, the Queen of Soul (2012 ed.)
Jenny Lawson - Let's Pretend This Never Happened
J.D. Salinger - Franny and Zooey
Charles Dickens - A Christmas Carol
Timothy Egan - The Big Burn
Deborah Eisenberg - Transactions in a Foreign Currency
Kurt Vonnegut Jr. - Slaughterhouse Five
Kathryn Lance - Pandora's Genes
Cheryl Strayed - Wild
Fyodor Dostoyevsky - The Brothers Karamazov
Jack London - The House of Pride, and Other Tales of Hawaii
Jack Walker - The Extraordinary Rendition of Vincent Dellamaria
Colum McCann - Let the Great World Spin
Niccolò Machiavelli - The Prince
Harper Lee - To Kill a Mockingbird
Emma McLaughlin & Nicola Kraus - The Nanny Diaries
Brian Selznick - The Invention of Hugo Cabret
Sharon Creech - Walk Two Moons
Keith Richards - Life
F. Sionil Jose - Dusk
Natalie Babbitt - Tuck Everlasting
Justin Halpern - S#*t My Dad Says
Mark Herrmann - The Curmudgeon's Guide to Practicing Law
Barry Glassner - The Gospel of Food
Phil Stanford - The Peyton-Allan Files
Jesse Katz - The Opposite Field
Evelyn Waugh - Brideshead Revisited
J.K. Rowling - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
David Sedaris - Holidays on Ice
Donald Miller - A Million Miles in a Thousand Years
Mitch Albom - Have a Little Faith
C.S. Lewis - The Magician's Nephew
F. Scott Fitzgerald - The Great Gatsby
William Shakespeare - A Midsummer Night's Dream
Ivan Doig - Bucking the Sun
Penda Diakité - I Lost My Tooth in Africa
Grace Lin - The Year of the Rat
Oscar Hijuelos - Mr. Ives' Christmas
Madeline L'Engle - A Wrinkle in Time
Steven Hart - The Last Three Miles
David Sedaris - Me Talk Pretty One Day
Karen Armstrong - The Spiral Staircase
Charles Larson - The Portland Murders
Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
Steven D. Stark - Meet the Beatles
Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
Rick Moody - Garden State
Jonathan Schwartz - All in Good Time
David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim
Anthony Holden - Big Deal
Robert J. Spitzer - The Spirit of Leadership
James McManus - Positively Fifth Street
Jeff Noon - Vurt
Road Work
Miles run year to date: 29
At this date last year: 66
Total run in 2012: 129
In 2011: 113
In 2010: 125
In 2009: 67
In 2008: 28
In 2007: 113
In 2006: 100
In 2005: 149
In 2004: 204
In 2003: 269
Comments (17)
Never fear: MultCo will keep counting until the measures win. Then they'll quit looking for more ballots.
Posted by Mister Tee | May 18, 2011 5:44 AM
"Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men? The Shadow knows!"
Posted by David E Gilmore | May 18, 2011 6:24 AM
The O and KGW are reporting this am that their prediction is form the Levy to pass and the Bond to be defeated.
Posted by Portland Native | May 18, 2011 6:42 AM
The levy is definitely passed. The bond will be close, but most likely defeated.
Posted by Jack Bog | May 18, 2011 6:57 AM
At the current trend, I'd actually bet that the bond passes (but I wouldn't put much money on it). Late ballots - those counted after 8pm - have been breaking 57% in favor. The most recent batch broke 59% in favor. The bond needs 54.5% of remaining ballots to go "yes" in order to pass. I wouldn't be surprised by either outcome, but I think it's probably just barely more likely that it passes at this rate.
Posted by Henry Kraemer | May 18, 2011 7:13 AM
Where have I seen this before?
Posted by Lawrence | May 18, 2011 7:21 AM
Time to disqualify ballots, find uncounted ballots in the trunk of someone's car, find ballots in a box under the table. Never fear, it can be rigged, and typically it is.
Posted by Native Oregonian | May 18, 2011 7:26 AM
Is there an equivalent drift in the levy vote as well?
Posted by Lawrence | May 18, 2011 7:41 AM
It ain't over 'til it's over. Remember how Randy's fire bond was trailing 95% of the time last election until enough votes trickled in to put it over the top by a minuscule margin?
Posted by Eric | May 18, 2011 8:34 AM
Ain't vote-by-mail grand?
Posted by Mr. Grumpy | May 18, 2011 8:37 AM
My ballot disappeared for a while, and much to my disgust I was getting mentally ready to go down to elections to get a replacement to make sure my NO vote counted. As Fortuna happened, I was changing into my dance shoes on Monday night at the tango milonga and I found the envelope slipped between the two shoeboxes in my dance tote. Very fitting.
Posted by gaye harris | May 18, 2011 8:41 AM
Quick dispatch someone to Seattle, they are always good for a few hundred/thousand votes that are just laying around.
Posted by pj | May 18, 2011 9:03 AM
The bond lost. Guaranteed. Moving on now, and getting ready to vote NO in any future attempt.
Posted by the other white meat | May 18, 2011 10:07 AM
Oregonian says there are 16,000 Mult. Co. ballots left. Would have to break 55% yes to overcome current spread, but it is tightening up.
Posted by Snards | May 18, 2011 10:39 AM
I have a feeling in my gut that the bond will pass. We're talking north of half a billion dollars here, with over $1million spent by the unions and contractors to push it.
This close, they'll find a way to "pass" it.
Posted by PD | May 18, 2011 10:48 AM
Suspicions such as these are one reason that the local rightists have been calling on Multnomah County to follow the state law that requires the county to destroy all unused ballots promptly after 8:00 p.m. on election day, something the county persistently refuses to do despite the clear state mandate to do so.
Posted by Isaac Laquedem | May 18, 2011 12:37 PM
As of 3:17PM:
"Here is the tally:
YES 58,730 49.5%
NO 59,814 50.5%
The Oregonian's totals include votes cast in the small portions of Portland Public Schools that lie in Washington and Clackamas counties along with the Multnomah totals.
There are now about 1,000 potential votes uncounted, according to Multnomah elections director Tim Scott -- too few votes to change the outcome of the bond vote. And the margin, while narrow, is far larger than the two-tenths of 1 percent difference that triggers an automatic recount."
http://www.oregonlive.com/portland/index.ssf/2011/05/portland_schools_bond_results.html
Posted by Gardiner Menefree | May 18, 2011 3:46 PM