This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on May 18, 2011 3:45 AM. The previous post in this blog was Portland school construction bond losing, operating levy passing. The next post in this blog is Look out, DNA, here they go. Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

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Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Portland school construction bond election tightening up

While the population sleeps, Multnomah County election results inevitably shift to the left, and the Portland school tax construction bond election is no exception to the rule. Just after 3 a.m., some new results were posted by the county elections bureau, and they show the race getting closer. The no votes are still ahead, but by far less than they were a few hours ago. The margin for the no votes is now only about 1.5%, whereas just after midnight it was about 5%. Here are the latest numbers:

Construction bond, Measure 26-121
$2 per $1,000

That's a margin of only 1,513 votes. It's not clear at this late hour how many more votes are to be counted; if last November is any indication, it could be weeks before the final tallies are available. Multnomah County is not promising any further updates until about 4:00 this afternoon. Our earlier comments on the apparent outcome of the election are here.

UPDATE, 6:46 a.m.: The O is reporting now that "nearly 85 percent" of the votes have been counted. That would leave about 18,000 votes left to be counted. They'd have to be about 54.5% yes to 45.5% no for the bond measure to pass. Seems unlikely, but stranger things have happened.

Comments (17)

Never fear: MultCo will keep counting until the measures win. Then they'll quit looking for more ballots.

"Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men? The Shadow knows!"

The O and KGW are reporting this am that their prediction is form the Levy to pass and the Bond to be defeated.

The levy is definitely passed. The bond will be close, but most likely defeated.

At the current trend, I'd actually bet that the bond passes (but I wouldn't put much money on it). Late ballots - those counted after 8pm - have been breaking 57% in favor. The most recent batch broke 59% in favor. The bond needs 54.5% of remaining ballots to go "yes" in order to pass. I wouldn't be surprised by either outcome, but I think it's probably just barely more likely that it passes at this rate.

Where have I seen this before?

Time to disqualify ballots, find uncounted ballots in the trunk of someone's car, find ballots in a box under the table. Never fear, it can be rigged, and typically it is.

Is there an equivalent drift in the levy vote as well?

It ain't over 'til it's over. Remember how Randy's fire bond was trailing 95% of the time last election until enough votes trickled in to put it over the top by a minuscule margin?

Ain't vote-by-mail grand?

My ballot disappeared for a while, and much to my disgust I was getting mentally ready to go down to elections to get a replacement to make sure my NO vote counted. As Fortuna happened, I was changing into my dance shoes on Monday night at the tango milonga and I found the envelope slipped between the two shoeboxes in my dance tote. Very fitting.

Quick dispatch someone to Seattle, they are always good for a few hundred/thousand votes that are just laying around.

The bond lost. Guaranteed. Moving on now, and getting ready to vote NO in any future attempt.

Oregonian says there are 16,000 Mult. Co. ballots left. Would have to break 55% yes to overcome current spread, but it is tightening up.

I have a feeling in my gut that the bond will pass. We're talking north of half a billion dollars here, with over $1million spent by the unions and contractors to push it.

This close, they'll find a way to "pass" it.

Suspicions such as these are one reason that the local rightists have been calling on Multnomah County to follow the state law that requires the county to destroy all unused ballots promptly after 8:00 p.m. on election day, something the county persistently refuses to do despite the clear state mandate to do so.

As of 3:17PM:

"Here is the tally:

YES 58,730 49.5%

NO 59,814 50.5%

The Oregonian's totals include votes cast in the small portions of Portland Public Schools that lie in Washington and Clackamas counties along with the Multnomah totals.

There are now about 1,000 potential votes uncounted, according to Multnomah elections director Tim Scott -- too few votes to change the outcome of the bond vote. And the margin, while narrow, is far larger than the two-tenths of 1 percent difference that triggers an automatic recount."

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