Thanks for access to Pisarski's current thinking. He has a solid track record to support his authoritative judgments.

Great article but the comments below it are just as interesting.

Here is a video of Pisarski on congestion:

http://blip.tv/file/2648144

thanks
JK

"Americans will drive to where they want to walk."

Worldwide conventional oil production peaked several years ago, so the above prediction will require a technological miracle to come true. Like a cure for cancer or cheap fusion power, it's feasible, but I'm not holding my breath waiting for it to happen.

Here's a very good writeup on peak oil:

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/economy-set-starve/48474

Of course, Americans weren't free to choose to drive tens or hundreds of miles away at 65 mph until the Big Federal Government autocratically decided to build the highways. And the reason the govmint gave for building them was for defense, moving the troops, not because it was 'what the people chose'. What people can 'choose' to do frequently relies on government structuring the choices, not the free market.

JD: Here's a very good writeup on peak oil:
JK: Oh, come on. Oil is produced in response to demand - all a drop in production tells us is that there was a drop in demand. In the rest of the economy people recognize that reduced production means that demand is down, why doesn’t the peak oil crown recognize this reality? (You don’t really believe oil companies spend money producing oil just to fill tank farms do you ?)

We have a series of huge new oil fields recently discovered. We have HUGE amounts of coal and coal is easily made into oil. Sasol is doing it today and making money at it. We have HUGE amounts of Natural gas and Sasol is making oil from it today and making money at it.

To believe in peak oil you have to deny economics, chemistry and history:

economics (supply goes up, consumption goes down with price)
That is why we have recently had a series of dramatic announcements of new discoveries - the recent high oil prices have brought much new exploration which has found more supplies.

chemistry (you can make the stuff)
The Fischer–Tropsch (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fischer%E2%80%93Tropsch_process) (also: fischer-tropsch.org) process and the Bergius process (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bergius_process), both used from the 1930s on, make li quid fuels form coal. Methane instead of coal can also be used a starting point. Sasol (sasol.com/) has been producing commercial quantities of oil from both processes for years. Also from natural gas.

History (Hitler ran a war on manmade oil).
The Role of Synthetic Fuel In World War II Germany Said this: “The percentage of synthetic fuels compared to the yield from all sources grew from 22 percent to more than 50 percent by 1943" airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/aureview/1981/jul-aug/becker.htm

Thanks
JK

elpagan: Of course, Americans weren't free to choose to drive tens or hundreds of miles away at 65 mph until the Big Federal Government autocratically decided to build the highways.
JK: A couple of details you may not know:
1. The interstate Federal highways started in the 1950s. Mass transit dramatically declined 20-30 years earlier as people switched to more convenient, faster and eventually cheaper, cars. So better highways were badly needed to serve a genuine public need.

2. The interstate highways were 100% built from user fees. Even today user fees pay for MORE than the total cost of Federal Interstate highways,

elpagan: What people can 'choose' to do frequently relies on government structuring the choices, not the free market.
JK: Does that mean you are in favor of letting people build in the country, outside the UGB, or are you criticizing the government structuring our choice as to where we can build a house?

In the case of transportation, it is very clear that people choose the car because it is more convenient and faster than mass transit. Once one owns a car, it is frequently cheaper to drive than to pay the fare. And the only reason the fare is as low as it is, is because 80% of the actual cost of transit is paid by other people - transit actually double to quadruple the cost of driving a car.

Thanks
JK