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Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Kitzhaber's going to win

Our amateur projections have Dr. Rerun winning by about 30,000 votes.

UPDATE, 11:08 p.m.: Some new statewide numbers have us shaving our projected margin of victory for Sponge John Faded Jeans down to about 20,000.

UPDATE, 11/3, 2:48 a.m.: As the night wears on, this race gets tighter and tighter. We've still got Kitzhaber ahead, but we project him to have a winning margin of only around 10,000 votes out of well over a million cast. And when it gets that close, anything can still happen.

Multnomah County is saying that it's got 280,000 ballots in hand, and it's showing results for only about 184,000. That leaves about 96,000 to go, which Kitzhaber should win by about a 39,000-vote margin. Lane County has posted "unofficial final results," and so there's apparently no more margin coming from there. Dudley's ahead by 21,500 statewide at the moment, and there are still apparently tens of thousands of ballots not yet counted elsewhere in the state. Kitz has got a 1% lead in Washington County, where the counted votes so far amount to 55% of the registered voters. I'm guessing that there are 20,000 more out there to be counted, which means that Kitz would pick up only a few hundred additional there.

It would be great if the first thing every county did on election night was count up all the ballots and publish the turnout numbers. It would make these amateur prognostications just a wee bit easier.

Comments (24)

Yes. Once those Multnomah County numbers start really rolling in..Dudley is toast. There's really no way he can pull it off given the numbers I'm looking at either. Sad day for Oregon...we needed to drive a nail in to the coffin of the too powerful public employees.

Dr. Rerun - I like it.
Jack, Why the hell aren't you on KGW this time adding some blogging cred to the coverage?

I still think he's going down. I can dream.

Why the hell aren't you on KGW this time adding some blogging cred to the coverage?

They didn't ask. I think I was just there in the past so that they could be "interactive" and "bloggy." They have a panel of their own experts tonight -- and they've done pretty well.

I put Dr. Kitzhaber's eventual margin as being narrower, at 19,000 when the votes are in, based on the returns to date (11:14 p.m.), but I agree that based on the votes to date and Multnomah County's slow count, he defeats Mr. Dudley. He has an additional 90,000 vote margin coming from Multnomah County, 11,000 from Lane, 2600 from Washington, and 3000 from Benton, which more than makes up for Mr. Dudley's future gains of 10,000 from Deschutes, 6000 each from Clackamas and Linn,7000 from Klamath, 4000 each from Yamhill and Malheur, and a scattering around the rest of the state. Interestingly, Mr. Dudley is taking Marion County, which should know Dr. Kitzhaber better.

Some things to be happy about this election, some disappointments. It's all just rearranging deck chairs on the titanic anyway.

Thanks for the good news Jack!

"It would be great if the first thing every county did on election night was count up all the ballots and publish the turnout numbers

Multnomah County will never agree to this as they then would not be able to print up however many ballots they need to put Democrat statewide candidates "over the top." The "slow counts" are such an obvious tactic - either they're crooked or it's the most incompetent elections staff in the nation. Maybe both.

Multnomah County always seems able to find another box of ballots when the race is close and they're the last ones counting.

KGW kind of sucked last night and once they put Liars Larson on the air, I switched to KATU. Liars was already polluting the airwaves elsewhere. I'd love to see Jack or other political bloggers who are not ideologues on the air.

Typical. Repugs think there must be cheating if they can't win? Isn't it more likely that tax cuts for the rich and 1920s-era social policy don't sell well everywhere.

Hey, PD, don't be sad. You still have your second amendment remedies.

Hey, PD, don't be sad. You still have your second amendment remedies.

When we lose police and fire protection because all the tax money we have goes to pay pensions and healthcare for retired public employees and union thugs, I'll be glad for that.

Enjoy sucking off of the system, Allan !!! Congrats!

There were many Mult co. Dems out there who said they could not vote for Kitz ever again. In the end, did they pull the trigger by marking the box next to the Dud? I could just imagine the sweat forming on their brows with pencil in hand as they actually considered the switch.

I don't think there is any hanky panky going on with the ballots. But the sour grapes will be a little easier to listen to than the gloating.

"... all the tax money we have goes to pay pensions and healthcare for retired public employees and union thugs"

Yeah, the old fascist switcheroo clogged your mind, PD, naming the imaginary villains who you should hate.

... only DON'T LOOK OVER THERE where you might notice our federal tax dollars being sucked dry by USA War on the World, THREE BILLION dollars a WEEK invading the oil countries, a TRILLION dollars a YEAR to exterminate the non-Americans on the planet.

yeah, yeah, PD, it's those "union thugs" reasonably expecting to get back their own money nest egg they grew for retirement, and all of that financial fancy footwork is what flatlined The Economy.

(pssst!, here's the hellation: The middle east region and our troops in it is all radioactive contaminated from the depleted uranium ordnance the 'drones' spread everywhere -- so the troops can never come home, they're contaminated -- and when we do seize the oil reservoirs and start pumping gas for commuters and vacation drivers, and farm tractors, it turns out there's no more oil left in the ground ... or, only enough to supply military and police maneuvers ....)

Tenskwatawa, the argument that because republicans spend billions starting wars it's okay for democrats to raid the coffers and line the pockets of union thugs and public employees...just doesn't hold water with me.

If you look at the state of Oregon elections site it says that 1.314 million votes were cast in total. The Governor race currently reflects 1.296 million votes and Dudley leads by over 10,000. If you look at the County results on the same website it says that 100% of Multnomah County votes are counted. Maybe that's not correct. I think Kitzhaber may have a problem catching up due to the significantly lower turnout in Multnomah County vs. the rest of the state.

Anybody know what's going on in Union County? OregonLive election site shows that there were more votes for write in candidates (6,800) than either Dudley (5,300) or Kitz (3,300).

OregonLive must be wrong (surprise, surprise). The Union County site doesn't show that irregularity.


This site says Mult County received just over 280,000 ballots: http://www.co.multnomah.or.us/dbcs/elections/2010-11/turnout.shtml

This site seems to indicate they've counted 215,000 of them: http://www.co.multnomah.or.us/dbcs/elections/2010-11/results.shtml

My interpretation could be incorrect, but that would leave 65,000 uncounted votes in Mult County. If trends continue, Kitz will get 45,500 to Dudley's 19,500 - a net gain of 26,000 for Kitz.

It also appears Lane County still has quite a few ballots to count.

Joey, you're right. Given that, it looks like Dr. Rerun will take it by a mere 9,000 votes.

Of course, returns in Multnomah and Lane counties are delayed:

They have to figure out how many votes they need to put Kitz over the top and still make it look legit.

There's no way Dudley can win if it is at all close.


It all works out. Dudley's lead is artificially high right now because they let cows vote Republican in Crook and Lake Counties.

PD, this just in from Commander Kook.

Heed, heed, obey opinion feed:

Beck blames pensions and "union bosses" for why "we don't make anything here anymore", Media Matters .ORG, November 03, 2010

From the November 3 edition of Fox News' Glenn Beck: [video]

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