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Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Hughes is still ahead, but...

... Stacey's gaining on him. Our math says Stacey will win, but only by 2,000 votes or less out of 400,000. Maybe only by literally a few votes.

Hughes is still ahead by about 4,000, but Stacey should more than make that up with what's left to be counted in Multnomah County. On the other hand, there are still 13,000 votes left to be counted in Washington County, which is Hughes country; Hughes should pick up about a 2,700 margin there.

Close -- extremely close.

Comments (4)

The Oregonian is calling it for Kitz.

That's More of the Sameness We Can Believe In!

My math has Hughes winning by about 700 votes. Currently the lead appears to be 3995 votes for Hughes. If you extrapolate the under votes in Multnomah County for the Metro Race which are coming in around .26455 against how votes are remaining, 280101 (total votes according to Multnomah County) -237490 (total votes already counted) =42611 votes remaining to count, there would be only be about 31339 votes to count in the Metro race. The percentage for Stacey is around 56.69 percent and Hughes is at about 42.48 percent for a difference in favor of Stacey by 4454. According to the current lead you will see that Hughes would lose that by 459 votes.

But you have to factor in the votes left to count in Washington County and applying the same math of undervotes of about .36457 percent you would get about 5512 votes left to count in the Metro Race with 3322 breaking for Hughes, given his 60.28% and 2154 for Stacey given his 39.06% for a difference in favor of Hughes by 1168 votes.

1168-459= 709 in favor of Hughes. Buckle up, this one is going to be fun.

PS there may also be a few votes in Clackamas County left to count too which should break to Hughes.

I really think it's time to follow cabbie's lead and move on. I just doesn't make any sense to get caught in the undertow any longer. Montana calls. Anyone looking for a nice little bungalow in Irvington?

Why elect new perspective to METRO? No, we Recycle everything in Portland. Maintain the status quo, everything is fine here.

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