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Sunday, August 29, 2010

Seven more years of recession?

So says someone who knows what she's talking about.

Comments (16)

Genesis 41:30 ???

It's 10 years altogether. We're only three years into it.

She sounds like a typical asperger mind. Brilliant analysis, says things she sees and finds to be true, but alas not social/politically correct. No wonder academia steers clear of her!

You know what you call someone who predicts 7 more years of recession?
An optimist.

I was dismayed by the Newsweek article about how Wall Street rolled Obama.
My logic was that we might as well get behind the guy because we only had a small window to self-correct. The idea that we went though all this hassle and accrued all this debt - only to leave Wall Street doing the same things that got us into this mess - is scary.
It feels like we're hovering between a downward spiral and a free fall here.

Hm... maybe the 7 years of tribulation is at hand (Matthew 24:21)... ;)

When the NYT turns on Obama on the economy, you know things are indeed dire...


U.S. Economy Grinds To Halt As Nation Realizes Money Just A Symbolic, Mutually Shared Illusion

PJB, the NYTimes editorial makes things even more dire when they call for increasing taxes but say nothing about trimming government. Common sense citizens will not have confidence to work, make investments, purchase goods when trimming isn't part of any equation. That is one reason the NYTimes readership keeps falling-like the economy. We are smarter than they think we are.

Newsweek Bill McD.? Didn't they just sell out that rag for $1.00? Is it really even worth that much when almost noone reads it?

Hans Christian Andersen's story on the emperor's new clothes, seems to fit today's headlines.

Welcome to the new normal.

Oh, it's going to be at least another seven more years. You want to see America's future, just look at Japan after their housing bust in the 1980's.

My humble opinion, we need more jobs. And lots of them. And if that means increasing the deficit, then so be it. But I'd rather have a $20 Trillion Deficit and 5% unemployement, than a $10 Trillion Dollar deficit and 10% unemployment.

I hope she's wrong, but this prediction does dovetail with Kondratieff (long-wave) cycle theory, which posits an economic "winter" that began in 2000 (the last real bull-market peak) and can be expected to last between 15 and 20 years.

This country can’t sustain that. We currently have unemployment insurance safety nets that last for two years. Unless the feds extend those benefits for ever there will be rioting in the streets. The real unemployment rate now is probably more than 16% and this consumer driven economy can’t take anymore without total meltdown. Small businesses are hanging on by bare threads. If this continues we will see hundreds of thousands of small businesses go bankrupt. That will lead to millions more unemployed. Ask any small business person here how long they can last. It isn’t pretty.

Dave A.,
Yes, Newsweek sold for a buck, but the reason is that hardly anybody buys it. Why? Because you can link to it online for free.
This piece was linked by the Huffington Post so plenty of people read it. It also echoed the comments of Matt Taibbi in Rolling Stone who said the financial overhaul bill was like the fish in "Old Man and the Sea" - bare bones by the time it came ashore.
Are you saying Wall Street didn't get there way with the new financial bill? What's changed? Are derivatives still a problem? Is the mixture of banking with high-stakes gambling still the same or not? Were the protections that kept us from trouble after the Great Depression reinstated? Did Geithner and Summers get their way? Did Volker?
Are the banks still too big to fail meaning if this happens again, we'll have to bail them out again despite any assurances now? Finally, is Wall Street more empowered now having gotten away with their past behavior?
Maybe Newsweek is desperate enough to try and answer these questions for us.

Our current Great Recession is actually a Great Restructuring. Many sub-industries and jobs are being ‘buggy-whipped’; which is healthy pruning. In October 2008 I said that the world-wide financial crisis was the biggest thing that had ever occurred in my Boomer-Life. I also said that the process would be painful and 4 years long. I stick by that prediction and look forward to October, 2012.

Will everything be back to ‘2006 Normal?’ No, never, not ever; but the new normal will be more sustainable in the thermodynamic sense of the word.

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