That's my last 'dog painted on the wall (Jack Bog's Blog)

So here they are, the final underdogs of the year in our charity pro football pool:

7.5 NY JETS at Indianapolis
4 MINNESOTA at New Orleans

Players must choose which of the two underdogs (in caps) they think will win their game outright -- but of course, to move up past someone else in the standings, they have to pick a 'dog other than the one that that someone else chooses.

All of our players have played with great spirit and skill throughout the season, and we want final picks from them all. Here, however, are the six who still have a shot at placing in the coveted Top 3:

Mark - 44.5
Gordon - 43
genop's mom - 40
Hank - 36.5
Bad Brad - 36
Rick - 33.5

The three best scores for the season get to designate parts of our $420 charity pool to go to their respective favorite charities -- $300, $75, and $45, respectively. Ties will not be broken. For example, if two players tie for second place, each will designate $60 (half of the combined $120 for second and third places).

Oh, the scenarios here. If Mark takes the Jets and they win, he finishes first. But if he takes Minnesota and they win, Gordon could still pass him if Gordon takes the Jets and the Jets win. In any event, unless my math is off, Mark is guaranteed to be somewhere in the Top 3, no matter which game he picks and how it comes out, but no one else is conclusively in the "money."

This is it for the season, folks, and so we want picks from all players and advice from all readers, both about the games and about pool strategy. The full standings are here.

Players, we're back to the normal Saturday night 11:59 deadline, and if you're still in the running for honors and you know who your charity will be, let us know whom it is we'll be rooting for behind the Big Daddies of the NFL.

Comments (12)

If Gordon picks the Jets, I think he can't do worse than third. But if he picks the Jets and so does Mark, then he can't pass Mark.

Posted by Jack Bog | January 19, 2010 8:36 PM

Not sure that either game is a likely upset, but I think MN has a much greater likelihood than the Jets, so that's the pick: The Purple People Eaters.

Posted by George Anonymuncule Seldes | January 19, 2010 9:42 PM

For no good reason, I've been crunching numbers and scenarios, and my unofficial observations are:

Mark is guaranteed to be in the Top 3. No one else is.

Gordon is in the "money" no matter how he picks, unless the Jets win and Minnesota loses, in which case he could wind up lower than third.

The best Hank or Bad Brad can do is second, and the best Rick can do is third.

For Rick to even have a chance to make it to the Top 3, Minnesota has to lose and the Jets have to win.

I've got lots of data on the scenarios (there are 256 possible combinations of player picks and game outcomes). If you've got a question, just ask, but it has to be on the blog where the other players can see the answer.

Posted by Jack Bog | January 20, 2010 5:43 AM

Things I do not Understand

1. How Daniel Snyder ever made a dime in business.

2. How Martha Coakley ever won a single election in Massachusetts.

3. Why, given my track record nobody else picked the Jets lasts week when they saw I did.

Going with Jets this week. My math shows I still have a chance, and that the Dems will wins seats in the 2010 election.

Posted by sidney | January 20, 2010 7:17 AM

Even though I think I am destined for Prefontaine's fate in the '72 Olympics, I will do my utmost to medal in this pool. Thusly, I will send my pick under separate email cover.

Thanks again for doing this. For better or worse, I have paid more attention to the NFL this season than I have in a while.

Posted by Hank Stern | January 20, 2010 10:21 AM

Are there any geeks out there who can show me how to hack into Hank's e-mail account? I'd sure like to know his final pick!

Posted by Bad Brad | January 20, 2010 10:50 AM

As long as we're hacking, I'd love to know Gordon's pick. I'll take Baltimore to win it all by default after revelations of inappropriate home videos are discovered in the ranks of all remaining teams. How many points do I get for that?

Posted by Mark | January 20, 2010 2:26 PM

J-E-T-S
Jets! Jets! Jets! Jets!

Posted by Kevin | January 20, 2010 2:42 PM

More fun facts (unofficial): If the current first four all take the Jets, it guarantees that the current top three will finish in those places.

Also, if Hank takes the Jets, Rick is out of the "money."

Posted by Jack Bog | January 21, 2010 12:28 AM

My "system" has worked only so-so over the course of the pool, but it is telling me to pick the Jets, and who am I to fight my own system?

Posted by Doug | January 21, 2010 9:07 PM

Geez Jack, thanks a lot for exposing my secret strategy that was sure to win me a glorious third place finish. I'm not worried though. I know genop's mom is going to fail her drug test while those wild asses Hank and Bad Brad will be tossed for brandishing handguns in the Bog's Blog locker room, handing me well-deserved third place honors. Go Jets!

Posted by Rick | January 22, 2010 6:58 PM

Hey! I'll take the Jets! Good thing this was just for charity and not my mortgage, eh?

Posted by Flynn | January 23, 2010 5:11 PM

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Tuesday, January 19, 2010

That's my last 'dog painted on the wall

Comments (12)

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