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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on October 28, 2009 6:56 PM. The previous post in this blog was (Rail)road to ruin. The next post in this blog is Cheating ref throws serious grenades at NBA. Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.



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Wednesday, October 28, 2009

More official lies about Portland population growth

The City of Portland has passed its exciting climate change plan -- don't eat meat, don't drive, etc. It's all pretty harmless, but it's distressing that the plan appears to be based on faked population projections. And of course, the sheep that the O sends out to cover it goes right along with the fakery:

In Portland in 2050, the population will be almost double what it is today.... By 2030, 60 percent of Portland's 1 million people will be driving electric vehicles, said Susan Anderson, director of Portland's Bureau of Planning and Sustainability.
The City of Portland population is currently about 586,000. It is growing at an annual rate of less than 1.4%. At that rate, in 2030 the population will not be 1 million. It will be around 785,000. And in 2050, the population will not be "almost double" what it is today. It will be around 1,036,000, which is about a 77 percent increase.

And gee whiz, folks, in 500 years the population will be a zillion! So we should stop eating now?

Comments (21)

I think the official projections assume the rate of population growth will increase as more young creatives flock to our sustainable city, and presumably procreate with other young creatives. As density increases more and more in the neighborhoods, our city's sustainable magnetism will draw them at an ever increasing rate. No shyte, that's the assumption (boiled down to simplest terms).

Maybe he was discussing the portland MSA.

Maybe. Certainly she wasn't.

Pretty funny that you send in your troll points from an OHSU computer --

"It's all pretty harmless"

C'mon people - Harmless?

How does a politician fix global warming? With more laws and txes.

"I think the official projections assume the rate of population growth will increase"

I think they assume a helluva lot, espceially when they have no clue how to increase jobs. All the growth has been outside of Portland where employers are located.

the rate of population growth will increase as more young creatives flock to our sustainable city, and presumably procreate with other young creatives.

As the city's financial messes have to be paid off, there will be no place for these folks to work, and city handouts to keep them busy will dry up. Anything's possible, I suppose. An aerial tram could bring 10,000 high-tech jobs to Portland. Monkeys could fly out of my butt.

Just this morning the AP was chatting about census data regarding the relocation preferences of the newly educated:

Notice that our city is mentioned but nothing more. Nothing about the absence of jobs in our perpetually slender economy. Perhaps more recent data will indicate a rapid reversal of the recent in-migration?

By 2030, 60 percent of Portland's 1 million people will be driving electric vehicles, said Susan Anderson, director of Portland's Bureau of Planning and Sustainability.

It's this kind of vacuous, data-free assertion that helps to make government-by-statistics laughable.

As of last year, local carbon emissions were 19 percent below what they were per person in 1990. But if you count overall emissions from Portland's larger population now, the actual emission reduction has been 1 percent. The 1 percent compares to a 14 percent increase in total emissions nationally over the same period.

This is actually almost entirely wrong, and very misleading. emissions are UP, significantly.

The number of bicyclists crossing bridges has increased five-fold.

Which has no bearing on anything, really. The number of cars crossing the railroad bridge over the Columbia is zero. useful stat? No.

Bus ridership has doubled (since 1990).
False. In fact, it fell slightly. For one curious fact, note that Trimet claims "double ridership", but yet auto ownership and cars on the road in Portland are up *dramatically*.

And in the past year, transit ridership continues to fall:

In 1993, Portland was the nation's first city to adopt a carbon emissions reduction plan. Eight years later, Multnomah County joined the city's efforts.

Which has had absolutely zero effect on carbon emissions.

Portland and Multnomah County's Climate Action Plan relies on local residents, businesses and governments to reach aggressive energy efficiency and waste- and consumption-reduction goals. At the same time, local leaders hope to capitalize on the need to curb global warming by making Portland a hub for new businesses that will tackle the problem.

Ah yes, the old "we'll shrink our consumption while both doubling our population and increasing the amount of development and corporations moving here" strategy.

At first glance, it seems impossible to make the city more livable for twice as many people while doing things such as reducing energy use and miles driven.

Especially when you almost double the automobile carrying capacity of the I-5 bridge, and widen parts of almost every highway in the tri-county area.

Angus Duncan chair of Oregon's Global Warming Commission, praised the city and county plan. "We are in the process of changing a society that was built over the past 200 years on the basis of fossil fuels," he said.

Then you'll love Mayor Facebook's vocal plans to build a much bigger, wider, many-landed Columbia River bridge, Angus. It should help with the transition.

Sorry, City Council, Jane Jacobs was wrong.

This city's governance stinks if you are not part of one of the special groups making money off these "green" scam activities. One part of the plan is pretty laughable. Something about certain minorites not taking advantage of public transportation options or bicycles, and instead choosing to drive their cars. I guess maybe the city and its green nazis could enslave the old and disadvantage, and make them ride bicycles.

Cityhall is a very scarey green color these days, and it's not just a Mayor who has a hard time with personal finance let alone city finance. Is it any wonder Portland is losing jobs at a higher rate than other parts of the state.

"Sorry, City Council, Jane Jacobs was wrong."

Ecohuman (sorry dude, but I have to capitalize your name because I'm starting a sentence): Have you ever read Jane Jacobs? Where did that jibe come from?

A whole lot of nonsense has been perpetrated in Jane Jacobs' name, as is the case with Jesus, Marx and Ronald Reagan.

Well, here's one way to take care of a million of us:

Ssshhhhhh! Don't let Sam see this!

They could sell naming rights to Cialis.

All these predictions of the future remind me of the tomorrow promised to those of us who grew up in the 50s and the 60s. Maybe that's why some of us are a little disappointed in having to go back to biking before first owning a flying car. A little off topic, but I found this and it's just too much fun not to share:

Take some time to enjoy this site. It's futurific!

Ron Tonkin for Mayor! Quit your honkin and come to Tonkin! :)

Ecohuman (sorry dude, but I have to capitalize your name because I'm starting a sentence): Have you ever read Jane Jacobs?

I have. I've even met her. Nice lady.

Excuse my naïveté ... It seems the simplest and least expensive way to reduce Portland's GHG emissions is to move to, say, Happy Valley.

"By 2030, 60 percent of Portland's 1 million people will be driving electric vehicles, said Susan Anderson, director of Portland's Bureau of Planning and Sustainability."

I can claim one thing with 100% certainty: no one has any idea what this place will look like in 2030. You sounds ridiculous even making a statement like this.

Homer Simpson: Aw, people can come up with statistics to prove anything. 14% of all people know that.

While Larabee's article reported the facts, I was also there and had a little bit of a different take.

The atmosphere was quite surreal, to say the least.

If we start eating the young creatives now , we can get the strength to bike every where in our geriatric three wheel bikes ,[where is my dammm flying car]

Thanks, Brian, for documenting yet another injudicious public utterance by County Commissioner Cogen:

The first witness, Multnomah County Commissioner Jeff Cogen, testified for the plan as a “really important project.” He went on to say that we need to be “acting on our values to confront a global problem.”

Cogen introduced a fine non sequitor by noticing that since “South Carolina doesn't address [the global warming problem],” it is in the interest of Portlanders to begin “building a brand for the region.” He emphasized that the City has been “an amazing leader for years” in the green movement.

As county commissioner, Cogen interpreted his mandate to “protect the public” and since climate change is “a public health disaster,” it falls under the county's responsibility as it “protects vulnerable people.”

Cogen then queried rhetorically, “what does it matter?” He concluded that “local action...tangibly empowers others” and will help "insure prosperity for the 21st Century."

Even after the debt implosion, well educated young creatives may come here to sew their wild oats and spawn, but once they do, they'll want those kids in decent schools and eating something better than ramen noodles. Portland won't have a chance until we fix our schools and get some jobs better than casual hot dog seller for Little Lord Paulson.

It should be noted here -- as Brian has in his account -- that Dan Saltzman was AWOL for yet another City Council meeting.


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Lange, Pinot Gris 2015
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Edmunds St. John, Bone-Jolly Rosé 2016
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Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
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Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
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Anthony Holden - Big Deal
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Road Work

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