This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on September 29, 2009 9:37 PM.
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I really showed my prognostication skills in last weekend's round of the pro football underdog pool in which I play. I correctly forecast that a team with a long, long losing streak would finally pull out a victory at home. Yay! Good for me!
Unfortunately, that team was the Detroit Lions, whereas I thought it was going to be the St. Louis Rams, who, like the Carolina Panthers, really and truly do stink. Curses, foiled again.
Not only that, but there are two players in the pool who have picked winning underdogs in all three weeks of the season, whereas I have picked none. One guy has 22 points already!
Never say die. It's a long way to the Super Bowl. This week, I'm going to be both smart and lucky -- I just know it. And so, dear readers, please help me get on track here. Which one of these underdogs (in caps) do you think can win its game outright this weekend? Remember, the point spreads don't count in picking a winner -- in this pool, they serve only to determine how many points the winning gambler will get if he or she picks a 'dog that wins "straight up." If I am among those with the most points at the end of the season, I take home cash. Here's this week's lineup:
10 DETROIT at Chicago
10 KANSAS CITY vs. NY Giants
10 ST. LOUIS at San Francisco
9.5 OAKLAND at Houston
7 TAMPA BAY at Washington
7 NY JETS at New Orleans
6.5 CLEVELAND vs. Cincinnati
6.5 SAN DIEGO at Pittsburgh
3.5 GREEN BAY at Minnesota
3 JACKSONVILLE vs. Tennessee
3 DENVER vs. Dallas
2.5 MIAMI vs. Buffalo
2 BALTIMORE at New England
UPDATE, 10/1, 11:30 p.m.: It's Baltimore on the road against New England, not at home.
I'd take Baltimore over New England in the plausible category and I'm also wondering whether Washington will flat out quit on Jim Zorn and give a sucky team like Tampa a chance. Did you hear Sonny Jergenson and Zorn getting into it? Classic.
The Jets are a fantastic story with a circle of life component since Buddy Ryan was a Jets coach during the Namath Super Bowl year.
Still, New Orleans is loaded on offense and Drew is playing out of his mind. I admire your choice but I can't take the Jets on the road. This is definitely the game I want to see most other than the Pack and you know who.
You didn't take my advice about Detroit last week?!? Ghaa! Why do I even bother?!?
Oh well. Moving on...
Most likely - Baltimore WILL beat New England - New England just isn't that good this year - but it's only two points.
Pretty likely - Green Bay is going to stick it to Brett Favre - just out of spite. And the Vikings are going to have an emotional let-down after last week's lucky win.
Fairly likely - The Jets will beat New Orleans. Nobody has figured out how to beat the Jets Defense yet, and the Saints offense is a paper tiger that's already been figured out once this season. Now that there is game film on all three Saints running backs, it will be easier for defenses to figure out how to key on each particular runner.
Miami - Pennington out for the year.
New Orleans - I haven't seen them even when they beat my Eagles, but the highlights look like they finally have enough weapons for Reggie Bush to do some damage.
Shockey is a matchup problem, even though that one Jets secondary guy is incredible.
The Jets-New Orleans is a tremendous game. Which means they probably won't show it out here. I mean we had Oakland-Denver on here last weekend. WTF?
There's no way last year's Superbowl champion is about to go 1-3 by losing at home to a bunch of half-baked Chargers. The Pittsburgh D will get better each week as it learns to live w/o Polumalu - these things take time. If it were in San Diego, I'd rethink that, but in Pittsburgh, in front of their home crowd of yelling towel-heads, I don't like the odds of an upset there.
Baltimore is less likely to pull off the upset on the road. We'll see what Joe Flacco is really made of this weekend. But I don't see the point in chasing 2 points, give the fact that you've lost 3 weeks in a row already.
Charamba, Douro 2008
Horse Heaven Hills, Cabernet 2010
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills Pinot Grigio 2011
Avignonesi, Montepulciano 2004
Lorelle, Willamette Valley Pinot Noir 2011
Villa Antinori, Toscana 2007
Mercedes Eguren, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
Lorelle, Columbia Valley Cabernet 2011
Purple Moon, Merlot 2011
Purple Moon, Chardonnnay 2011
Abacela, Vintner's Blend No. 12
Opula Red Blend 2010
Liberte, Pinot Noir 2010
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Indian Wells Red Blend 2010
Woodbridge, Chardonnay 2011
King Estate, Pinot Noir 2011
Famille Perrin, Cotes du Rhone Villages 2010
Columbia Crest, Les Chevaux Red 2010
14 Hands, Hot to Trot White Blend
Familia Bianchi, Malbec 2009
Terrapin Cellars, Pinot Gris 2011
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2009
Campo Viejo, Rioja, Termpranillo 2010
Ravenswood, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2010
Waterbrook, Reserve Merlot 2009
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills, Pinot Grigio 2011
Tarantas, Rose
Chateau Lajarre, Bordeaux 2009
La Vielle Ferme, Rose 2011
Benvolio, Pinot Grigio 2011
Nobilo Icon, Pinot Noir 2009
Lello, Douro Tinto 2009
Quinson Fils, Cotes de Provence Rose 2011
Anindor, Pinot Gris 2010
Buenas Ondas, Syrah Rose 2010
Les Fiefs d'Anglars, Malbec 2009
14 Hands, Pinot Gris 2011
Conundrum 2012
Condes de Albarei, Albariño 2011
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2007
Penelope Sanchez, Garnacha Syrah 2010
Canoe Ridge, Merlot 2007
Atalaya do Mar, Godello 2010
Vega Montan, Mencia
Benvolio, Pinot Grigio
Nobilo Icon, Pinot Noir, Marlborough 2009
Portuga, Rose 2011
Revelation, Chardonnay, Pays d'Oc 2010
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 2005
Monte Alto, Tinto Reserva 2005
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Cabernet, Indian Wells 2009
Espiral, Vinho Rose
Vin-Koru, Pinot Gris 2011
14 Hands, Hot to Trot Red 2009
Rodney Strong, Cabernet, Sonoma 2009
Abacela, Vintner's Blend #11
Portuga, White 2010
La Bourgeoisie, Red 2009
Januik, Red 2009
Three Rivers, River's Red 2008
Kirkland, Alexander Valley Merlot 2008
Muga, Rioja Rose 2010
Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2009
Mauro Molino, Barbera d'Alba 2009
Garda Chiaretto Rose
Columbia Crest, Two Vines Vineyard 10 White
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Pinot Gris, Columbia Valley 2009
L'Hortus, Rose de Saignee 2010
Maculan, Pino & Toi 2008
McKinley Springs, Bombing Range Red 2008
Trader Joe's Pinot Gris 2009
Montes Alpha, Cabernet 2007
Gran Sasso, Sangiovese, Terre di Chieti 2009
Garda, Classico Chiaretto Rose
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 1999
Picos del Montgo, Tempranillo 2008
Chateau de Montmirail, Vacqueyras 2008
La Granja 360, Syrah 2009
Montgras, Carmenere Reserva 2009
Lange, Pinot Gris 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Cabernet 2008
Kirkland, Pinot Grigio 2010
Trader Joe's Coastal Syrah 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Merlot 2008
Trader Joe's Coastal Chardonnay 2009
Vieux Papes Red
Domaine de l'Aujardiere, Chardonnay 2009
Santa Rita, Cabernet, Medalla Real 2007
Penfold's, Koonunga Hill Shiraz Cabernet 2008
Guild, Red, Lot #02 2008
Dievole, Dievolino Sangiovese 2008
Laforet, Burgogne Chardonnay 2009
Columbia Winery, Merlot 2007
Bonterra, Cabernet 2008
Elk Cove, Pinot Gris 2009
Maquis Lien 2006
Scott Paul, Pinot Noir, Le Paulee 2007
The Occasional Book
Neil Young - Waging Heavy Peace
Mark Bego - Aretha Franklin, the Queen of Soul (2012 ed.)
Jenny Lawson - Let's Pretend This Never Happened
J.D. Salinger - Franny and Zooey
Charles Dickens - A Christmas Carol
Timothy Egan - The Big Burn
Deborah Eisenberg - Transactions in a Foreign Currency
Kurt Vonnegut Jr. - Slaughterhouse Five
Kathryn Lance - Pandora's Genes
Cheryl Strayed - Wild
Fyodor Dostoyevsky - The Brothers Karamazov
Jack London - The House of Pride, and Other Tales of Hawaii
Jack Walker - The Extraordinary Rendition of Vincent Dellamaria
Colum McCann - Let the Great World Spin
Niccolò Machiavelli - The Prince
Harper Lee - To Kill a Mockingbird
Emma McLaughlin & Nicola Kraus - The Nanny Diaries
Brian Selznick - The Invention of Hugo Cabret
Sharon Creech - Walk Two Moons
Keith Richards - Life
F. Sionil Jose - Dusk
Natalie Babbitt - Tuck Everlasting
Justin Halpern - S#*t My Dad Says
Mark Herrmann - The Curmudgeon's Guide to Practicing Law
Barry Glassner - The Gospel of Food
Phil Stanford - The Peyton-Allan Files
Jesse Katz - The Opposite Field
Evelyn Waugh - Brideshead Revisited
J.K. Rowling - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
David Sedaris - Holidays on Ice
Donald Miller - A Million Miles in a Thousand Years
Mitch Albom - Have a Little Faith
C.S. Lewis - The Magician's Nephew
F. Scott Fitzgerald - The Great Gatsby
William Shakespeare - A Midsummer Night's Dream
Ivan Doig - Bucking the Sun
Penda Diakité - I Lost My Tooth in Africa
Grace Lin - The Year of the Rat
Oscar Hijuelos - Mr. Ives' Christmas
Madeline L'Engle - A Wrinkle in Time
Steven Hart - The Last Three Miles
David Sedaris - Me Talk Pretty One Day
Karen Armstrong - The Spiral Staircase
Charles Larson - The Portland Murders
Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
Steven D. Stark - Meet the Beatles
Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
Rick Moody - Garden State
Jonathan Schwartz - All in Good Time
David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim
Anthony Holden - Big Deal
Robert J. Spitzer - The Spirit of Leadership
James McManus - Positively Fifth Street
Jeff Noon - Vurt
Road Work
Miles run year to date: 21
At this date last year: 52
Total run in 2012: 129
In 2011: 113
In 2010: 125
In 2009: 67
In 2008: 28
In 2007: 113
In 2006: 100
In 2005: 149
In 2004: 204
In 2003: 269
Comments (18)
call me crazy, but I like the Jets on the road.
Posted by disagreement | September 29, 2009 10:48 PM
I'd take Baltimore over New England in the plausible category and I'm also wondering whether Washington will flat out quit on Jim Zorn and give a sucky team like Tampa a chance. Did you hear Sonny Jergenson and Zorn getting into it? Classic.
The Jets are a fantastic story with a circle of life component since Buddy Ryan was a Jets coach during the Namath Super Bowl year.
Still, New Orleans is loaded on offense and Drew is playing out of his mind. I admire your choice but I can't take the Jets on the road. This is definitely the game I want to see most other than the Pack and you know who.
Posted by Bill McDonald | September 29, 2009 11:14 PM
Is this the week Cleveland begins to Cleve?
Posted by Jack Bog | September 30, 2009 1:01 AM
Not good news. Toughest week yet, as I can see every listed underdog losing. GB and Jacksonville are your best hopes.
Posted by Gibby | September 30, 2009 6:39 AM
If Green Bay goes to Minnesota and beats Brett there won't be enough Prosac in the world for Vikings fans.
This is going to be heavy.
Posted by Bill McDonald | September 30, 2009 8:06 AM
Tampa
Posted by Kevin | September 30, 2009 9:06 AM
Tampa
Miami
Baltimore
Posted by jmh | September 30, 2009 9:53 AM
You didn't take my advice about Detroit last week?!? Ghaa! Why do I even bother?!?
Oh well. Moving on...
Most likely - Baltimore WILL beat New England - New England just isn't that good this year - but it's only two points.
Pretty likely - Green Bay is going to stick it to Brett Favre - just out of spite. And the Vikings are going to have an emotional let-down after last week's lucky win.
Fairly likely - The Jets will beat New Orleans. Nobody has figured out how to beat the Jets Defense yet, and the Saints offense is a paper tiger that's already been figured out once this season. Now that there is game film on all three Saints running backs, it will be easier for defenses to figure out how to key on each particular runner.
Posted by Mark | September 30, 2009 10:24 AM
Miami - Pennington out for the year.
New Orleans - I haven't seen them even when they beat my Eagles, but the highlights look like they finally have enough weapons for Reggie Bush to do some damage.
Shockey is a matchup problem, even though that one Jets secondary guy is incredible.
The Jets-New Orleans is a tremendous game. Which means they probably won't show it out here. I mean we had Oakland-Denver on here last weekend. WTF?
Posted by Bill McDonald | September 30, 2009 10:54 AM
Denver, Green Bay, Jets. I predict Favre has a mediocre game.
Cleveland, like its namesake, stinks. San Diego might surprise, but Pittsburgh's likely to tough that one out.
Posted by ecohuman | September 30, 2009 11:07 AM
SAN DIEGO
Pitts D is the pits w/o Troy P. They are not the same team right now.
Posted by mp97303 | September 30, 2009 11:26 AM
Jets
Might as well, they seemed out of steam last weekend. Then Pitt.
Posted by Steve | September 30, 2009 3:51 PM
Favre may not have to be awesome twice in a row. Adrian Peterson is due to go off.
Posted by Bill McDonald | September 30, 2009 7:21 PM
If you're considering the Ravens, you should factor in that they are playing at New England (your list has them at home).
Posted by Tim | October 1, 2009 1:45 PM
There's no way last year's Superbowl champion is about to go 1-3 by losing at home to a bunch of half-baked Chargers. The Pittsburgh D will get better each week as it learns to live w/o Polumalu - these things take time. If it were in San Diego, I'd rethink that, but in Pittsburgh, in front of their home crowd of yelling towel-heads, I don't like the odds of an upset there.
Baltimore is less likely to pull off the upset on the road. We'll see what Joe Flacco is really made of this weekend. But I don't see the point in chasing 2 points, give the fact that you've lost 3 weeks in a row already.
Posted by Mark | October 1, 2009 4:29 PM
they are playing at New England (your list has them at home)
Corrected. Thank you!
Posted by Jack Bog | October 1, 2009 11:22 PM
I think I'll be 2 for 3 this week again. The Jets were surprisingly mediocre. I can't see the Patriots losing tonight.
Posted by ecohuman | October 5, 2009 9:26 AM
Jacksonville
Denver
Miami
so far. Not much in the way of points ... who'd you pick? I hate waiting until the next week's line to find out!
Posted by Kevin | October 5, 2009 9:32 AM