Three 'dog blight (Jack Bog's Blog)

I really showed my prognostication skills in last weekend's round of the pro football underdog pool in which I play. I correctly forecast that a team with a long, long losing streak would finally pull out a victory at home. Yay! Good for me!

Unfortunately, that team was the Detroit Lions, whereas I thought it was going to be the St. Louis Rams, who, like the Carolina Panthers, really and truly do stink. Curses, foiled again.

Not only that, but there are two players in the pool who have picked winning underdogs in all three weeks of the season, whereas I have picked none. One guy has 22 points already!

Never say die. It's a long way to the Super Bowl. This week, I'm going to be both smart and lucky -- I just know it. And so, dear readers, please help me get on track here. Which one of these underdogs (in caps) do you think can win its game outright this weekend? Remember, the point spreads don't count in picking a winner -- in this pool, they serve only to determine how many points the winning gambler will get if he or she picks a 'dog that wins "straight up." If I am among those with the most points at the end of the season, I take home cash. Here's this week's lineup:

10 DETROIT at Chicago
10 KANSAS CITY vs. NY Giants
10 ST. LOUIS at San Francisco
9.5 OAKLAND at Houston
7 TAMPA BAY at Washington
7 NY JETS at New Orleans
6.5 CLEVELAND vs. Cincinnati
6.5 SAN DIEGO at Pittsburgh
3.5 GREEN BAY at Minnesota
3 JACKSONVILLE vs. Tennessee
3 DENVER vs. Dallas
2.5 MIAMI vs. Buffalo
2 BALTIMORE at New England

UPDATE, 10/1, 11:30 p.m.: It's Baltimore on the road against New England, not at home.

And here's a last-minute addition to the slate:

11 SEATTLE at Indianapolis

Comments (18)

call me crazy, but I like the Jets on the road.

Posted by disagreement | September 29, 2009 10:48 PM

I'd take Baltimore over New England in the plausible category and I'm also wondering whether Washington will flat out quit on Jim Zorn and give a sucky team like Tampa a chance. Did you hear Sonny Jergenson and Zorn getting into it? Classic.

The Jets are a fantastic story with a circle of life component since Buddy Ryan was a Jets coach during the Namath Super Bowl year.

Still, New Orleans is loaded on offense and Drew is playing out of his mind. I admire your choice but I can't take the Jets on the road. This is definitely the game I want to see most other than the Pack and you know who.

Posted by Bill McDonald | September 29, 2009 11:14 PM

Is this the week Cleveland begins to Cleve?

Posted by Jack Bog | September 30, 2009 1:01 AM

Not good news. Toughest week yet, as I can see every listed underdog losing. GB and Jacksonville are your best hopes.

Posted by Gibby | September 30, 2009 6:39 AM

If Green Bay goes to Minnesota and beats Brett there won't be enough Prosac in the world for Vikings fans.
This is going to be heavy.

Posted by Bill McDonald | September 30, 2009 8:06 AM

Tampa

Posted by Kevin | September 30, 2009 9:06 AM

Tampa
Miami
Baltimore

Posted by jmh | September 30, 2009 9:53 AM

You didn't take my advice about Detroit last week?!? Ghaa! Why do I even bother?!?

Oh well. Moving on...

Most likely - Baltimore WILL beat New England - New England just isn't that good this year - but it's only two points.
Pretty likely - Green Bay is going to stick it to Brett Favre - just out of spite. And the Vikings are going to have an emotional let-down after last week's lucky win.
Fairly likely - The Jets will beat New Orleans. Nobody has figured out how to beat the Jets Defense yet, and the Saints offense is a paper tiger that's already been figured out once this season. Now that there is game film on all three Saints running backs, it will be easier for defenses to figure out how to key on each particular runner.

Posted by Mark | September 30, 2009 10:24 AM

Miami - Pennington out for the year.
New Orleans - I haven't seen them even when they beat my Eagles, but the highlights look like they finally have enough weapons for Reggie Bush to do some damage.
Shockey is a matchup problem, even though that one Jets secondary guy is incredible.
The Jets-New Orleans is a tremendous game. Which means they probably won't show it out here. I mean we had Oakland-Denver on here last weekend. WTF?

Posted by Bill McDonald | September 30, 2009 10:54 AM

Denver, Green Bay, Jets. I predict Favre has a mediocre game.

Cleveland, like its namesake, stinks. San Diego might surprise, but Pittsburgh's likely to tough that one out.

Posted by ecohuman | September 30, 2009 11:07 AM

SAN DIEGO

Pitts D is the pits w/o Troy P. They are not the same team right now.

Posted by mp97303 | September 30, 2009 11:26 AM

Jets

Might as well, they seemed out of steam last weekend. Then Pitt.

Posted by Steve | September 30, 2009 3:51 PM

Favre may not have to be awesome twice in a row. Adrian Peterson is due to go off.

Posted by Bill McDonald | September 30, 2009 7:21 PM

If you're considering the Ravens, you should factor in that they are playing at New England (your list has them at home).

Posted by Tim | October 1, 2009 1:45 PM

There's no way last year's Superbowl champion is about to go 1-3 by losing at home to a bunch of half-baked Chargers. The Pittsburgh D will get better each week as it learns to live w/o Polumalu - these things take time. If it were in San Diego, I'd rethink that, but in Pittsburgh, in front of their home crowd of yelling towel-heads, I don't like the odds of an upset there.

Baltimore is less likely to pull off the upset on the road. We'll see what Joe Flacco is really made of this weekend. But I don't see the point in chasing 2 points, give the fact that you've lost 3 weeks in a row already.

Posted by Mark | October 1, 2009 4:29 PM

they are playing at New England (your list has them at home)

Corrected. Thank you!

Posted by Jack Bog | October 1, 2009 11:22 PM

I think I'll be 2 for 3 this week again. The Jets were surprisingly mediocre. I can't see the Patriots losing tonight.

Posted by ecohuman | October 5, 2009 9:26 AM

Jacksonville
Denver
Miami

so far. Not much in the way of points ... who'd you pick? I hate waiting until the next week's line to find out!

Posted by Kevin | October 5, 2009 9:32 AM