Here we are, already in Week 2 of the pro football underdog pool in which I play. Last week there were three winning 'dogs -- Denver (4), the Jets (5), and San Francisco (6.5) -- and alas, I had none of the above. The Niners had a certain appeal, but I picked Jacksonville over Indiana (7), and came up a couple of points short.
Many readers advised me to take the Jets -- I should have listened. Commenter Kevin actually had both the Jets and Denver -- that guy speaks with authority.
But hey, don't look back -- it's onward and upward. See any underdogs here (in caps) who can win their game outright this weekend? The point spreads matter only in that they determine how many points I rack up if my 'dog actually wins its game straight up. It's still way early in the season, so it's o.k. to throw the long ball. Here's the slate:
10 ST. LOUIS at Washington
10 DETROIT vs. Minnesota
9 CINCINNATI at Green Bay
7 HOUSTON at Tennessee
6 CAROLINA at Atlanta
5 TAMPA BAY at Buffalo
4.5 NY JETS vs. New England
3.5 ARIZONA at Jacksonville
3.5 BALTIMORE at San Diego
3 CHICAGO vs. Pittsburgh
3 CLEVELAND at Denver
3 NY GIANTS at Dallas
3 OAKLAND at Kansas City
3 MIAMI vs. Indianapolis
1.5 SEATTLE at San Francisco
(The Eagles-Sanits game isn't eligible because of an ambiguously-injured-quarterback situation.)
Help me out with some free advice, folks -- I don't want to take a cipher for a second week running.
Hey ecohuman, three of the four you named (Dallas, San Francisco, and Indianapolis) are the favorites. You want to pick the teams on the left side in CAPS that you think are going to win.
Baltimore over San Diego. Ravens have a solid QB now in Flacco with a top-tier defense. San Diego looked slow against one of the NFL's worse teams.
For a long shot, Tampa Bay could pull off the upset against Buffalo. TB put up 450 yrds offense against the Cowboys. Buffalo is still without its stud RB, Marshawn Lynch, TO is already mouthing off to his QB, and 7 of Buffalo's points was from an interception.
Yes, GAS, the Jets are often surprising early in the season, and they have sometimes surprised the Pats. But do not look for that to happen this week.
One would be wise to go with the team still smarting over being left out of last year's second season pahty despite going 11-5 with a backup QB -- a team whose coach has thought it strong enough to lose extraordinary talent. NE will stumble a couple, perhaps a few, times this year, but they will not lose their next contest: Tom was dissatisfied with his return performance last Monday.
To win you have to go for points. SEATTLE gets you a measly 1.5...Jack, nothing gained there (besides, SF will win). Oakland, same story. Go with CAROLINA. No way they suck that bad two weeks running. They are out to prove something. Even in Atlanta.
Giants over Cowboys. It's a great NFC East division grudge match and the Sunday night game to boot. It will be tough, because NY is playing the first of three straight road games, and the Cowboys' new stadium is expected to break attendance records Sunday night with 100K plus (real numbers, not Beavers numbers). But if the Giants O-line gives Eli Manning time to spread the ball among his receivers, and if Brandon Jacobs stays healthy, New York should win. Tony Romo is good, but he'll have his work cut out against the Giants defense. But I thought the spread was 7.5, not 3?
My guess is Tampa Bay over Buffalo. I think the Bills already hit the high water mark of their season in the first half against New England, and TO is already complaining.
The slam dunk no-brainer pick is for Baltimore. And as a Chargers fan it hurts hurts hurts my heart to say that.
But, that only gives you 3.5 points. Meh.
If you want more points than that, I'd go with Carolina over Atlanta. I like their chances slightly better than Houston's. Cinci, Detroit, and St Louis are NOT going to win.
I think that Baltimore is a solid pick. Last year, I think you did well by picking up points consistently and were able to fend off people at the end. You don't have to make desperation picks toward the end of the season. But 3 points is so little.
I can't stop looking at the Carolina v. Atlanta match up. The game is in Atlanta, but it's not a long trip, so there can't be any Seattle type excuses. Last week, Carolina - who made it to the NFC championship last year - had a team record 7 turnovers, most of which were Delhomme INTs. They still only lost by 12. That means their defense is fairly stout (or Miami's offense is just horrible). I'd pick Carolina for the slightly riskier pick than Baltimore.
Charamba, Douro 2008
Horse Heaven Hills, Cabernet 2010
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills Pinot Grigio 2011
Avignonesi, Montepulciano 2004
Lorelle, Willamette Valley Pinot Noir 2011
Villa Antinori, Toscana 2007
Mercedes Eguren, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
Lorelle, Columbia Valley Cabernet 2011
Purple Moon, Merlot 2011
Purple Moon, Chardonnnay 2011
Abacela, Vintner's Blend No. 12
Opula Red Blend 2010
Liberte, Pinot Noir 2010
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Indian Wells Red Blend 2010
Woodbridge, Chardonnay 2011
King Estate, Pinot Noir 2011
Famille Perrin, Cotes du Rhone Villages 2010
Columbia Crest, Les Chevaux Red 2010
14 Hands, Hot to Trot White Blend
Familia Bianchi, Malbec 2009
Terrapin Cellars, Pinot Gris 2011
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2009
Campo Viejo, Rioja, Termpranillo 2010
Ravenswood, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2010
Waterbrook, Reserve Merlot 2009
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills, Pinot Grigio 2011
Tarantas, Rose
Chateau Lajarre, Bordeaux 2009
La Vielle Ferme, Rose 2011
Benvolio, Pinot Grigio 2011
Nobilo Icon, Pinot Noir 2009
Lello, Douro Tinto 2009
Quinson Fils, Cotes de Provence Rose 2011
Anindor, Pinot Gris 2010
Buenas Ondas, Syrah Rose 2010
Les Fiefs d'Anglars, Malbec 2009
14 Hands, Pinot Gris 2011
Conundrum 2012
Condes de Albarei, Albariño 2011
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2007
Penelope Sanchez, Garnacha Syrah 2010
Canoe Ridge, Merlot 2007
Atalaya do Mar, Godello 2010
Vega Montan, Mencia
Benvolio, Pinot Grigio
Nobilo Icon, Pinot Noir, Marlborough 2009
Portuga, Rose 2011
Revelation, Chardonnay, Pays d'Oc 2010
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 2005
Monte Alto, Tinto Reserva 2005
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Cabernet, Indian Wells 2009
Espiral, Vinho Rose
Vin-Koru, Pinot Gris 2011
14 Hands, Hot to Trot Red 2009
Rodney Strong, Cabernet, Sonoma 2009
Abacela, Vintner's Blend #11
Portuga, White 2010
La Bourgeoisie, Red 2009
Januik, Red 2009
Three Rivers, River's Red 2008
Kirkland, Alexander Valley Merlot 2008
Muga, Rioja Rose 2010
Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2009
Mauro Molino, Barbera d'Alba 2009
Garda Chiaretto Rose
Columbia Crest, Two Vines Vineyard 10 White
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Pinot Gris, Columbia Valley 2009
L'Hortus, Rose de Saignee 2010
Maculan, Pino & Toi 2008
McKinley Springs, Bombing Range Red 2008
Trader Joe's Pinot Gris 2009
Montes Alpha, Cabernet 2007
Gran Sasso, Sangiovese, Terre di Chieti 2009
Garda, Classico Chiaretto Rose
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 1999
Picos del Montgo, Tempranillo 2008
Chateau de Montmirail, Vacqueyras 2008
La Granja 360, Syrah 2009
Montgras, Carmenere Reserva 2009
Lange, Pinot Gris 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Cabernet 2008
Kirkland, Pinot Grigio 2010
Trader Joe's Coastal Syrah 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Merlot 2008
Trader Joe's Coastal Chardonnay 2009
Vieux Papes Red
Domaine de l'Aujardiere, Chardonnay 2009
Santa Rita, Cabernet, Medalla Real 2007
Penfold's, Koonunga Hill Shiraz Cabernet 2008
Guild, Red, Lot #02 2008
Dievole, Dievolino Sangiovese 2008
Laforet, Burgogne Chardonnay 2009
Columbia Winery, Merlot 2007
Bonterra, Cabernet 2008
Elk Cove, Pinot Gris 2009
Maquis Lien 2006
Scott Paul, Pinot Noir, Le Paulee 2007
The Occasional Book
Neil Young - Waging Heavy Peace
Mark Bego - Aretha Franklin, the Queen of Soul (2012 ed.)
Jenny Lawson - Let's Pretend This Never Happened
J.D. Salinger - Franny and Zooey
Charles Dickens - A Christmas Carol
Timothy Egan - The Big Burn
Deborah Eisenberg - Transactions in a Foreign Currency
Kurt Vonnegut Jr. - Slaughterhouse Five
Kathryn Lance - Pandora's Genes
Cheryl Strayed - Wild
Fyodor Dostoyevsky - The Brothers Karamazov
Jack London - The House of Pride, and Other Tales of Hawaii
Jack Walker - The Extraordinary Rendition of Vincent Dellamaria
Colum McCann - Let the Great World Spin
Niccolò Machiavelli - The Prince
Harper Lee - To Kill a Mockingbird
Emma McLaughlin & Nicola Kraus - The Nanny Diaries
Brian Selznick - The Invention of Hugo Cabret
Sharon Creech - Walk Two Moons
Keith Richards - Life
F. Sionil Jose - Dusk
Natalie Babbitt - Tuck Everlasting
Justin Halpern - S#*t My Dad Says
Mark Herrmann - The Curmudgeon's Guide to Practicing Law
Barry Glassner - The Gospel of Food
Phil Stanford - The Peyton-Allan Files
Jesse Katz - The Opposite Field
Evelyn Waugh - Brideshead Revisited
J.K. Rowling - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
David Sedaris - Holidays on Ice
Donald Miller - A Million Miles in a Thousand Years
Mitch Albom - Have a Little Faith
C.S. Lewis - The Magician's Nephew
F. Scott Fitzgerald - The Great Gatsby
William Shakespeare - A Midsummer Night's Dream
Ivan Doig - Bucking the Sun
Penda Diakité - I Lost My Tooth in Africa
Grace Lin - The Year of the Rat
Oscar Hijuelos - Mr. Ives' Christmas
Madeline L'Engle - A Wrinkle in Time
Steven Hart - The Last Three Miles
David Sedaris - Me Talk Pretty One Day
Karen Armstrong - The Spiral Staircase
Charles Larson - The Portland Murders
Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
Steven D. Stark - Meet the Beatles
Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
Rick Moody - Garden State
Jonathan Schwartz - All in Good Time
David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim
Anthony Holden - Big Deal
Robert J. Spitzer - The Spirit of Leadership
James McManus - Positively Fifth Street
Jeff Noon - Vurt
Road Work
Miles run year to date: 21
At this date last year: 52
Total run in 2012: 129
In 2011: 113
In 2010: 125
In 2009: 67
In 2008: 28
In 2007: 113
In 2006: 100
In 2005: 149
In 2004: 204
In 2003: 269
Comments (26)
Chicago. But don't bet your house.
Posted by The Original Bob W | September 16, 2009 4:32 PM
I think Arizona was still a little hung over last week from the Super Bowl hoopla...Cardinals over the Jags.
Posted by Rich | September 16, 2009 4:41 PM
Dallas, San Francisco, Arizona, Indianapolis. I expect the 49ers and Colts to surprise people this year.
Posted by ecohuman | September 16, 2009 4:56 PM
Hey ecohuman, three of the four you named (Dallas, San Francisco, and Indianapolis) are the favorites. You want to pick the teams on the left side in CAPS that you think are going to win.
Posted by Rich | September 16, 2009 5:00 PM
I'd be tempted by NY Jets again, playing at home. But then, I said Tampa Bay last week so . . .
Posted by George Anonymuncule Seldes | September 16, 2009 5:01 PM
Baltimore over San Diego. Ravens have a solid QB now in Flacco with a top-tier defense. San Diego looked slow against one of the NFL's worse teams.
For a long shot, Tampa Bay could pull off the upset against Buffalo. TB put up 450 yrds offense against the Cowboys. Buffalo is still without its stud RB, Marshawn Lynch, TO is already mouthing off to his QB, and 7 of Buffalo's points was from an interception.
Posted by Travis | September 16, 2009 5:05 PM
Two more for you:
Seattle over San Francisco
Oakland over Kansas City
Posted by Rich | September 16, 2009 5:08 PM
Dallas, San Francisco,... Indianapolis.
The game here is to pick one underdog. I am sure that most of the favored teams will win their games. Which ones won't?
Posted by Jack Bog | September 16, 2009 5:17 PM
I may be slow, but I'm also inferior.
Look for St. Louis, Chicago and Oakland to meet or beat the spread.
Posted by ecohuman.com | September 16, 2009 5:23 PM
We are looking for an underdog that will win its game outright, without the benefit of the spread.
Posted by Jack Bog | September 16, 2009 5:29 PM
Win outright, no spread? Ah. Oakland and Chicago. Absolutely. St. Louis probable.
Posted by ecohuman.com | September 16, 2009 6:04 PM
Yes, GAS, the Jets are often surprising early in the season, and they have sometimes surprised the Pats. But do not look for that to happen this week.
One would be wise to go with the team still smarting over being left out of last year's second season pahty despite going 11-5 with a backup QB -- a team whose coach has thought it strong enough to lose extraordinary talent. NE will stumble a couple, perhaps a few, times this year, but they will not lose their next contest: Tom was dissatisfied with his return performance last Monday.
Posted by Gardiner Menefree | September 16, 2009 7:28 PM
Baltimore b/c SD looked bad, LT is injured and SD just didn't look good against Oak.
BTW, Flacco looks like he might be offensive this year instead of just a ball manager.
Posted by mp97303 | September 16, 2009 7:58 PM
the team still smarting over being left out of last year's second season pahty
They did not look good in Week 1 this year. They struggled while the Jets rolled.
Posted by Jack Bog | September 16, 2009 8:57 PM
To win you have to go for points. SEATTLE gets you a measly 1.5...Jack, nothing gained there (besides, SF will win). Oakland, same story. Go with CAROLINA. No way they suck that bad two weeks running. They are out to prove something. Even in Atlanta.
Posted by Mark Mason | September 16, 2009 8:59 PM
The black cats do look like a quality pick. Anybody like Houston?
Posted by Jack Bog | September 16, 2009 9:07 PM
Not one, but two of these will win this week.
Arizona by three
Miami by nine
Pick the one that will give you the most points
Posted by Gibby | September 17, 2009 8:24 AM
Giants over Cowboys. It's a great NFC East division grudge match and the Sunday night game to boot. It will be tough, because NY is playing the first of three straight road games, and the Cowboys' new stadium is expected to break attendance records Sunday night with 100K plus (real numbers, not Beavers numbers). But if the Giants O-line gives Eli Manning time to spread the ball among his receivers, and if Brandon Jacobs stays healthy, New York should win. Tony Romo is good, but he'll have his work cut out against the Giants defense. But I thought the spread was 7.5, not 3?
Posted by jmh | September 17, 2009 9:16 AM
In order:
3.5 BALTIMORE at San Diego
3 NY GIANTS at Dallas
5 TAMPA BAY at Buffalo
Posted by Steve | September 17, 2009 10:03 AM
Giants...(only 3, but come on..they are favored in many circles to win the SB)
Longshot Flyer on St. Louis...I thought the Redskins looked awful
Posted by dr | September 17, 2009 10:53 AM
My guess is Tampa Bay over Buffalo. I think the Bills already hit the high water mark of their season in the first half against New England, and TO is already complaining.
Posted by Not that "Steve" | September 17, 2009 11:59 AM
The slam dunk no-brainer pick is for Baltimore. And as a Chargers fan it hurts hurts hurts my heart to say that.
But, that only gives you 3.5 points. Meh.
If you want more points than that, I'd go with Carolina over Atlanta. I like their chances slightly better than Houston's. Cinci, Detroit, and St Louis are NOT going to win.
Posted by Larry K | September 17, 2009 1:50 PM
I think that Baltimore is a solid pick. Last year, I think you did well by picking up points consistently and were able to fend off people at the end. You don't have to make desperation picks toward the end of the season. But 3 points is so little.
I can't stop looking at the Carolina v. Atlanta match up. The game is in Atlanta, but it's not a long trip, so there can't be any Seattle type excuses. Last week, Carolina - who made it to the NFC championship last year - had a team record 7 turnovers, most of which were Delhomme INTs. They still only lost by 12. That means their defense is fairly stout (or Miami's offense is just horrible). I'd pick Carolina for the slightly riskier pick than Baltimore.
Posted by Kevin | September 18, 2009 9:19 AM
Win outright, no spread? Ah. Oakland and Chicago. Absolutely.
Two for two.
Posted by ecohuman | September 20, 2009 5:31 PM
At's whatam sayin'
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/21/sports/football/21jets.html?partner=rss&emc=rss
Posted by George Anonymuncule Seldes | September 21, 2009 2:17 AM
Big week for the underdogs ... in order of biggest points:
Cincinnati
Houston
NYJ
Baltimore
Chicago
NYG
Jack, who did you pick?
Posted by Kevin | September 21, 2009 9:08 AM