"The mother of all head fakes" (Jack Bog's Blog)

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on June 7, 2009 11:15 AM. The previous post in this blog was You can hear 'em in the back room strummin'. The next post in this blog is Shock and awe. Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

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« You can hear 'em in the back room strummin' | Main | Shock and awe »

Sunday, June 7, 2009

"The mother of all head fakes"

The stock market seems to think that less bad equals good. Not everyone agrees.

Posted at 11:15 AM | Permalink

Comments (4)

Some people are always optimistic, others are grumpy pessimists. To me, things feel better than they did 6 months ago.

Posted by mp97303 | June 7, 2009 3:27 PM

One sign that the big banks would like us to believe housing has bottomed is the sudden jog up in mortgage rates. Wells Fargo (WFC), eg, was sitting at 4.75% for a 30yr on May 21st; but, by the 28th, it was up to 5.375%. It's up another 1/4 to 5.625% a week later; the trend last week was up a tad each day after a 1/4pt dip on Monday.

This rise may put a crimp in the refi business, though the rate is still attractive to new buyers. Then again, it may stimulate the mortgage market as people who need mortgages hasten to avoid anticipated higher rates in the future.

Are the surviving, subsidized banks trying a feint also to coax us into believing the worst is over and that the window of opportunity is closing? To encourage economic activity, that is, with the threat that houses are just going to get more expensive to buy? Rumors abound regarding WFC's toxic portfolio, but that's another discussion. As is the nagging reality of very high unemployment.

Posted by Gardiner Menefree | June 7, 2009 5:27 PM

Maybe our best chance is to pretend things are okay, because if we really start focusing on how bad they really are, the whole thing will collapse - as it may anyway.

I don't pretend to understand the numbers but my sense is that the 700 billion dollar bailout really amounts to the government covering 12 trillion dollars of assets. Meanwhile the banks are now using their power to keep things as they always were, so we're paying for their previous mistakes and the system isn't even getting fixed.

And as usual the unconstitutional Federal Reserve keeps charging us as a nation to have our own currency. Ridiculous.

We may sneak through by being a Money Trap - too big to fail as a country but there has to be a limit to how much the world will put up with as far as lending. As it is they seem to be in a sprint to make the dollar irrelevant.

In addition, our judicial system that essentially no longer applies to politicians is working against us. We could be getting better results if more of the last administration was in prison. Seeing colleagues in cells could work to clear the heads of our decision makers in Congress.

The amazing part for me is hearing this endless string of what would be cataclysmic bad news any other time, and having the American Public not even flinch.

Could our famous lack of an attention span be helping out here?

Posted by Bill McDonald | June 7, 2009 6:03 PM

From the low point of the Great Depression - July 1932 - it took 22 years, until 1954, for the Dow 30 Industrials to just recover their previous high seen in late 1929. Not even a world war could bring it back to where it had been; it took the devastation of the industrial capacity of the rest of the world to boost the US output to this recovery point. The reasons behind the depression were different than our current situation, but the timeline certainly cannot be ignored.

The Nikkei 225 Index in Japan reached a high in 1989 that it hasn't even been close to matching over the past 20 years. Perhaps many reasons are involved here, but there's more of a parallel to our present situation - inflated real estate values and banks holding crap loans in their portfolios and refusing to admit their true condition.

So perhaps things seem a little better than 6 months ago. But to return to the levels seen in 2007? I don't see that prospect any time in the next few years.

Posted by john rettig | June 7, 2009 11:53 PM

In Vino Veritas

Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2009
Mauro Molino, Barbera d'Alba 2009
Garda Chiaretto Rose
Columbia Crest, Two Vines Vineyard 10 White
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Pinot Gris, Columbia Valley 2009
L'Hortus, Rose de Saignee 2010
Maculan, Pino & Toi 2008
McKinley Springs, Bombing Range Red 2008
Trader Joe's Pinot Gris 2009
Montes Alpha, Cabernet 2007
Gran Sasso, Sangiovese, Terre di Chieti 2009
Garda, Classico Chiaretto Rose
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 1999
Picos del Montgo, Tempranillo 2008
Chateau de Montmirail, Vacqueyras 2008
La Granja 360, Syrah 2009
Montgras, Carmenere Reserva 2009
Lange, Pinot Gris 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Cabernet 2008
Kirkland, Pinot Grigio 2010
Trader Joe's Coastal Syrah 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Merlot 2008
Trader Joe's Coastal Chardonnay 2009
Vieux Papes Red
Domaine de l'Aujardiere, Chardonnay 2009
Santa Rita, Cabernet, Medalla Real 2007
Penfold's, Koonunga Hill Shiraz Cabernet 2008
Guild, Red, Lot #02 2008
Dievole, Dievolino Sangiovese 2008
Laforet, Burgogne Chardonnay 2009
Columbia Winery, Merlot 2007
Bonterra, Cabernet 2008
Elk Cove, Pinot Gris 2009
Maquis Lien 2006
Scott Paul, Pinot Noir, Le Paulee 2007
Cameron, Chardonnay
B.R. Cohn, Cabernet, Silver Label 2006
Graffigna, Cabernet 2005
Palo Alto, Reserve Red 2008
Menguante, Garnacha 2008
Lange, Pinot Gris 2009
Felsina Berardenga, Vin Santo 1997
Anne Amie, Pinot Gris 2009
McKinley Springs, Bombing Ramge Red 2007
Vieux Papes Red
Dionysius Chardonnay 2009
Haden Fig, Pinot Noir 2009
Vega Montan, Mencia 2008
Chateau la Vernede, Coteaux du Languedoc 2007
Mount Defiance, Hellfire (White) 2008
Root: 1, Cabernet 2008
Columbia Crest, Two Vines Pinot Grigio 2009
Columbia Crest, Two Vines, Vineyard 10 White, 2008
Columbia Crest, Two Vines, Vineyard 10 Rose, 2007
Abacela, Grenache Rose 2009
Avia Cabernet 2004
Lemelson Pinot Noir, Thea's Selection 2007
Chateau de la Roulerie, Rose d'Anjou 2009
Casal Garcia, Vinho Verde Rose
La Ferme Julien, Rose 2008
Cana's Feast, Bricco Red, 2006
Hogue, Genesis Merlot, 2008
Owen Roe, Sharecropper's Cabernet, 2008
Kim Crawford, Unoaked Chardonnay 2008
J. Scott, Pinot Noir 2008
Edmunds St. John, White, Heart of Gold 2008
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2006
Stevenot, Cabernet, Sierra Foothills, "Stanford" 2000
Portuga, Vinho Rose 2009
Taylor Fladgate, First Estate Reserve Porto
Franciscan, Cabernet, Napa 2006
Chaparral de Vega Sindoa, Garnacha 2008
Quinta da Aveleda, Vinho Verde 2008
St. Francis, Chardonnay Sonoma 2008
E. Guigal, Cotes du Rhone Blanc, 2007
Edmunds St. John, Bone-Jolly, Gamay Noir 2008
St. Innocent, Pinot Noir 2006
Jigsaw, Pinot Noir 2007
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Merlot, Indian Wells 2007
Charles Shaw, Chardonnay 2008
Edmunds St. John, Bone-Jolly, Gamay Rosé 2009
Cameron, Willamette Valley Chardonnay
Il Valore, Sangiovese, Giovane, Puglia 2008
Duck Pond, Chardonnay, Wahluke Slope 2007
Kim Crawford, Marlborough Pinot Noir 2008
Domaine du Pesquier, Cotes du Rhone 2005
Cantina Zaccagnini, Montepulciano d'Abruzzo 2006
Domaine Matrot, Chardonnay, Bourgogne 2007
David Hill, Oregon Sparkling Wine, Brut
Chandler Reach, Monte Regalo 2006
Elk Cove, Pinot Gris 2008
Kirkland, Columbia Valley Merlot 2008
D'Aragon, Old Vine Garnacha 2008
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2005
Pavin & Riley, Merlot 2006
David Hill, Estate Pinot Noir, Barrel Select 2006
Castle Rock, Paso Robles Cabernet 2006
Magnificent, Cabernet, Steak House 2008
Conundrum 2008
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 1998
Saint Cosme, Cotes-du-Rhone 2007
La Granja, Tempranillo 360, 2008
Santa Rita, Mendalla Real Cabernet 2006
Columbia Crest, Grand Estates Merlot 2006
Andezon, Cotes-du-Rhone 2007
Collegiata, Montepulciano d'Abruzzo
Troon, Druid's Fluid 2008
La Granja, Tempranillo 2008
Monte Antico, Toscana 2006
Vieux Papes, Blanc de Blancs

The Occasional Book

Jack London - The House of Pride, and Other Tales of Hawaii
Jack Walker - The Extraordinary Rendition of Vincent Dellamaria
Colum McCann - Let the Great World Spin
Niccolò Machiavelli - The Prince
Harper Lee - To Kill a Mockingbird
Emma McLaughlin & Nicola Kraus - The Nanny Diaries
Brian Selznick - The Invention of Hugo Cabret
Sharon Creech - Walk Two Moons
Keith Richards - Life
F. Sionil Jose - Dusk
Natalie Babbitt - Tuck Everlasting
Justin Halpern - S#*t My Dad Says
Mark Herrmann - The Curmudgeon's Guide to Practicing Law
Barry Glassner - The Gospel of Food
Phil Stanford - The Peyton-Allan Files
Jesse Katz - The Opposite Field
Evelyn Waugh - Brideshead Revisited
J.K. Rowling - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
David Sedaris - Holidays on Ice
Donald Miller - A Million Miles in a Thousand Years
Mitch Albom - Have a Little Faith
C.S. Lewis - The Magician's Nephew
F. Scott Fitzgerald - The Great Gatsby
William Shakespeare - A Midsummer Night's Dream
Ivan Doig - Bucking the Sun
Penda Diakité - I Lost My Tooth in Africa
Grace Lin - The Year of the Rat
Oscar Hijuelos - Mr. Ives' Christmas
Madeline L'Engle - A Wrinkle in Time
Steven Hart - The Last Three Miles
David Sedaris - Me Talk Pretty One Day
Karen Armstrong - The Spiral Staircase
Charles Larson - The Portland Murders
Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
Steven D. Stark - Meet the Beatles
Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
Rick Moody - Garden State
Jonathan Schwartz - All in Good Time
David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim
Anthony Holden - Big Deal
Robert J. Spitzer - The Spirit of Leadership
James McManus - Positively Fifth Street
Jeff Noon - Vurt

Road Work

Miles run year to date: 54
At this date last year: 50
Total run in 2011: 113
In 2010: 125
In 2009: 67
In 2008: 28
In 2007: 113
In 2006: 100
In 2005: 149
In 2004: 204
In 2003: 269