This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on May 21, 2009 5:11 AM.
The previous post in this blog was For the children.
The next post in this blog is That ain't Vegemite.
Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.
Here's what the local operators, the Tri-County Lodging Association, predict -- compared to what the city has been estimating, through its project partner, the Starwood hotel group:
Net Operating Income After Reserve for Furniture, Fixtures and Equipment
Year
Starwood
Tri-County
2012
$6,313,000
$4,186,663
2013
$9,201,000
$5,540,555
2014
$12,093,000
$7,499,111
2015
$12,425,000
$8,655,783
2016
$12,193,000
$8,613,824
These net income figures do not take into account any amounts that would be needed to retire the massive amount of public debt that the proposal would require -- around $247 million, at last report. To pay off that much debt at 6% interest over 30 years would suck up more than $17.9 million a year.
Comments (13)
If we go ahead with the plan and run into trouble, which we will, we can always apply for a bailout. After all, we will have built it with the public's benefit in mind.
Dallas, Texas voters approved building a city-owned convention center hotel last week and the news media and bloggers there are questioning the financials there, too. Some are also charging that the the City of Dallas misled voters about the numbers, and the City Attorney is fighting to keep consultants' reports secret.
An independent audit of the studies done for the Dallas hotel concluded that it will not be able to make its mortgage payments, and will put a huge financial strain on the city.
As pointed out by one citizen blogger in Dallas, the national convention center market is overbuilt and saturated with money-losing publicly-owned hotels funded by taxpayers.
This is an increasingly competitive market. Many cities have recently opened or are building convention center hotels after being advised by consultants that convention business is being lost because their city doesn't have one. What a racket.
Based on even the rosy set of figures, that would still require an average daily rate of like $346 per room. The Nines can't even fill up with $99 rooms. Convention planners are very shrewd and cost conscious, they would book the lowest priced rooms first, likely downtown where there are stores, theaters, clubs and our great waterfront.
Yes, but you forgot to count the 234,621.34 jobs it will create.
I think the original proposal had the hotel operator:
- Not paying prop taxes
- Keeps the room taxes
- If he doesn't make a profit (I know, very small chance), he can skip loan pmts.
The whole thing smacks of desperation on the city/metro side.
Hey, look on the bright side, Adams is the only one willing to take an arrow in the back for this. Maybe we should help him do the right thing.
A Hopeful, that's only part of the situation. There was no way in hell that I was going to vote for the new Dallas hotel (seeing as how the only person who really benefits is Robert Dechard, CEO of A.H. Belo, which owns the property on which the hotel would be built), but voting against it made me a bedfellow with Harlan Crow, the owner of the current convention center hotel in Dallas. Seeing as how Crow is so crooked that he needs four people to help him screw his pants on every morning, I felt nice and slimy voting for the right thing.
The good news about the Dallas fiasco is that while the vote was "close" (and this is a town I love, but the politics are so sleazy that when a candidate starts talking about "rising above the mudslinging," it's only because his opponent found some really good dirt on him, so there were probably lots of shenanigans involved), this was just a vote against a clause preventing city money from being used for private construction. The hotel still needs actual money to start construction, and we have enough legal challenges that it probably won't happen for years, if ever. Robert Dechard needed to make this deal happen fast, as he's looking at his newspaper and television station empire imploding before the end of the year, and it's probably not going to happen in time to keep his staff from hanging him by his toes and using him as a Viking pinata.
TTR - The Dallas convention center hotel site is already being cleared. Unfortunately the demolition crew hit a water main, all to the glee of blog commenters.
someone should ask private hotels and or POVA just how much business they are losing to taxpayer subsidized rates at the Nines. What of their future if PDC / taxpayers have an additional 250 rooms to let at below market rates?
Thanks, Hopeful: I missed that one. It looks as if Dechard is trying his best to ram this through.
What I still find interesting is exactly how this is supposed to pay for itself, at a time when existing Portland hotels are already drowning. I was checking on Portland hotel rates the other day for a book signing gig, and I was shocked to discover that the rates are already cheaper, in real dollars, than they were in 1996 when I moved to Portland. Getting to Portland from the rest of the country is still a nightmare (I loved the United flight that would have required me to lay over in Seattle for eight hours that was still half again as expensive as the Southwest flight I booked that's nearly a nonstop), but the hotels are already scrambling to snag anybody who's coming to the city for business or pleasure. When the best hotels are already dropping their prices to levels that would have been insane five years ago, why the hell would any sane individual want to book a room in the Convention Center hotel unless it's offering better prices and perks?
(Yes, I know: since it's at the Convention Center, the hotel would be handling bulk reservations for hotels. That's already presuming that the conventions are coming in. I brought up this issue about six months back, and some Cat Piss Man got into my face about how Portland had just hosted an open source software conference that might return to Portland. Just what the city needs: a regular run of Cory Doctorow wannabes who come into town with one shirt and one $20 bill, and don't change either for the whole week.)
Charamba, Douro 2008
Horse Heaven Hills, Cabernet 2010
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills Pinot Grigio 2011
Avignonesi, Montepulciano 2004
Lorelle, Willamette Valley Pinot Noir 2011
Villa Antinori, Toscana 2007
Mercedes Eguren, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
Lorelle, Columbia Valley Cabernet 2011
Purple Moon, Merlot 2011
Purple Moon, Chardonnnay 2011
Abacela, Vintner's Blend No. 12
Opula Red Blend 2010
Liberte, Pinot Noir 2010
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Indian Wells Red Blend 2010
Woodbridge, Chardonnay 2011
King Estate, Pinot Noir 2011
Famille Perrin, Cotes du Rhone Villages 2010
Columbia Crest, Les Chevaux Red 2010
14 Hands, Hot to Trot White Blend
Familia Bianchi, Malbec 2009
Terrapin Cellars, Pinot Gris 2011
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2009
Campo Viejo, Rioja, Termpranillo 2010
Ravenswood, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2010
Waterbrook, Reserve Merlot 2009
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills, Pinot Grigio 2011
Tarantas, Rose
Chateau Lajarre, Bordeaux 2009
La Vielle Ferme, Rose 2011
Benvolio, Pinot Grigio 2011
Nobilo Icon, Pinot Noir 2009
Lello, Douro Tinto 2009
Quinson Fils, Cotes de Provence Rose 2011
Anindor, Pinot Gris 2010
Buenas Ondas, Syrah Rose 2010
Les Fiefs d'Anglars, Malbec 2009
14 Hands, Pinot Gris 2011
Conundrum 2012
Condes de Albarei, Albariño 2011
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2007
Penelope Sanchez, Garnacha Syrah 2010
Canoe Ridge, Merlot 2007
Atalaya do Mar, Godello 2010
Vega Montan, Mencia
Benvolio, Pinot Grigio
Nobilo Icon, Pinot Noir, Marlborough 2009
Portuga, Rose 2011
Revelation, Chardonnay, Pays d'Oc 2010
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 2005
Monte Alto, Tinto Reserva 2005
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Cabernet, Indian Wells 2009
Espiral, Vinho Rose
Vin-Koru, Pinot Gris 2011
14 Hands, Hot to Trot Red 2009
Rodney Strong, Cabernet, Sonoma 2009
Abacela, Vintner's Blend #11
Portuga, White 2010
La Bourgeoisie, Red 2009
Januik, Red 2009
Three Rivers, River's Red 2008
Kirkland, Alexander Valley Merlot 2008
Muga, Rioja Rose 2010
Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2009
Mauro Molino, Barbera d'Alba 2009
Garda Chiaretto Rose
Columbia Crest, Two Vines Vineyard 10 White
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Pinot Gris, Columbia Valley 2009
L'Hortus, Rose de Saignee 2010
Maculan, Pino & Toi 2008
McKinley Springs, Bombing Range Red 2008
Trader Joe's Pinot Gris 2009
Montes Alpha, Cabernet 2007
Gran Sasso, Sangiovese, Terre di Chieti 2009
Garda, Classico Chiaretto Rose
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 1999
Picos del Montgo, Tempranillo 2008
Chateau de Montmirail, Vacqueyras 2008
La Granja 360, Syrah 2009
Montgras, Carmenere Reserva 2009
Lange, Pinot Gris 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Cabernet 2008
Kirkland, Pinot Grigio 2010
Trader Joe's Coastal Syrah 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Merlot 2008
Trader Joe's Coastal Chardonnay 2009
Vieux Papes Red
Domaine de l'Aujardiere, Chardonnay 2009
Santa Rita, Cabernet, Medalla Real 2007
Penfold's, Koonunga Hill Shiraz Cabernet 2008
Guild, Red, Lot #02 2008
Dievole, Dievolino Sangiovese 2008
Laforet, Burgogne Chardonnay 2009
Columbia Winery, Merlot 2007
Bonterra, Cabernet 2008
Elk Cove, Pinot Gris 2009
Maquis Lien 2006
Scott Paul, Pinot Noir, Le Paulee 2007
The Occasional Book
Neil Young - Waging Heavy Peace
Mark Bego - Aretha Franklin, the Queen of Soul (2012 ed.)
Jenny Lawson - Let's Pretend This Never Happened
J.D. Salinger - Franny and Zooey
Charles Dickens - A Christmas Carol
Timothy Egan - The Big Burn
Deborah Eisenberg - Transactions in a Foreign Currency
Kurt Vonnegut Jr. - Slaughterhouse Five
Kathryn Lance - Pandora's Genes
Cheryl Strayed - Wild
Fyodor Dostoyevsky - The Brothers Karamazov
Jack London - The House of Pride, and Other Tales of Hawaii
Jack Walker - The Extraordinary Rendition of Vincent Dellamaria
Colum McCann - Let the Great World Spin
Niccolò Machiavelli - The Prince
Harper Lee - To Kill a Mockingbird
Emma McLaughlin & Nicola Kraus - The Nanny Diaries
Brian Selznick - The Invention of Hugo Cabret
Sharon Creech - Walk Two Moons
Keith Richards - Life
F. Sionil Jose - Dusk
Natalie Babbitt - Tuck Everlasting
Justin Halpern - S#*t My Dad Says
Mark Herrmann - The Curmudgeon's Guide to Practicing Law
Barry Glassner - The Gospel of Food
Phil Stanford - The Peyton-Allan Files
Jesse Katz - The Opposite Field
Evelyn Waugh - Brideshead Revisited
J.K. Rowling - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
David Sedaris - Holidays on Ice
Donald Miller - A Million Miles in a Thousand Years
Mitch Albom - Have a Little Faith
C.S. Lewis - The Magician's Nephew
F. Scott Fitzgerald - The Great Gatsby
William Shakespeare - A Midsummer Night's Dream
Ivan Doig - Bucking the Sun
Penda Diakité - I Lost My Tooth in Africa
Grace Lin - The Year of the Rat
Oscar Hijuelos - Mr. Ives' Christmas
Madeline L'Engle - A Wrinkle in Time
Steven Hart - The Last Three Miles
David Sedaris - Me Talk Pretty One Day
Karen Armstrong - The Spiral Staircase
Charles Larson - The Portland Murders
Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
Steven D. Stark - Meet the Beatles
Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
Rick Moody - Garden State
Jonathan Schwartz - All in Good Time
David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim
Anthony Holden - Big Deal
Robert J. Spitzer - The Spirit of Leadership
James McManus - Positively Fifth Street
Jeff Noon - Vurt
Road Work
Miles run year to date: 21
At this date last year: 52
Total run in 2012: 129
In 2011: 113
In 2010: 125
In 2009: 67
In 2008: 28
In 2007: 113
In 2006: 100
In 2005: 149
In 2004: 204
In 2003: 269
Comments (13)
If we go ahead with the plan and run into trouble, which we will, we can always apply for a bailout. After all, we will have built it with the public's benefit in mind.
Posted by Mike Landfair | May 21, 2009 7:58 AM
Dallas, Texas voters approved building a city-owned convention center hotel last week and the news media and bloggers there are questioning the financials there, too. Some are also charging that the the City of Dallas misled voters about the numbers, and the City Attorney is fighting to keep consultants' reports secret.
An independent audit of the studies done for the Dallas hotel concluded that it will not be able to make its mortgage payments, and will put a huge financial strain on the city.
As pointed out by one citizen blogger in Dallas, the national convention center market is overbuilt and saturated with money-losing publicly-owned hotels funded by taxpayers.
This is an increasingly competitive market. Many cities have recently opened or are building convention center hotels after being advised by consultants that convention business is being lost because their city doesn't have one. What a racket.
Posted by A Hopeful | May 21, 2009 8:31 AM
Once you've painted yourself into a corner you might as well apply a second coat.
Posted by PanchoPDX | May 21, 2009 8:33 AM
Based on even the rosy set of figures, that would still require an average daily rate of like $346 per room. The Nines can't even fill up with $99 rooms. Convention planners are very shrewd and cost conscious, they would book the lowest priced rooms first, likely downtown where there are stores, theaters, clubs and our great waterfront.
Posted by RANZ | May 21, 2009 8:34 AM
FYI The Dallas studies were done by HVS. The independent audit was done by CH Johnson Consulting.
Posted by A Hopeful | May 21, 2009 8:45 AM
Yes, but you forgot to count the 234,621.34 jobs it will create.
I think the original proposal had the hotel operator:
- Not paying prop taxes
- Keeps the room taxes
- If he doesn't make a profit (I know, very small chance), he can skip loan pmts.
The whole thing smacks of desperation on the city/metro side.
Hey, look on the bright side, Adams is the only one willing to take an arrow in the back for this. Maybe we should help him do the right thing.
Posted by Steve | May 21, 2009 9:22 AM
Quelle surprise.
Posted by George Anonymuncule Seldes | May 21, 2009 10:40 AM
Year Starwood Tri-County Debt Service
2012 $6,313,000 $4,186,663 ($17,900,000)
2013 $9,201,000 $5,540,555 ($17,900,000)
2014 $12,093,000 $7,499,111 ($17,900,000)
2015 $12,425,000 $8,655,783 ($17,900,000)
2016 $12,193,000 $8,613,824 ($17,900,000)
When you factor debt service, profit is somewhere beyond the horizon. I cannot believe they omitted the debt service factor?? I feel so - - misled.
Posted by genop | May 21, 2009 1:21 PM
Does anyone know how the publicly financed & owned Hilton in Vancouver, WA is doing? Is it covering its debt service?
Posted by BW | May 21, 2009 2:37 PM
A Hopeful, that's only part of the situation. There was no way in hell that I was going to vote for the new Dallas hotel (seeing as how the only person who really benefits is Robert Dechard, CEO of A.H. Belo, which owns the property on which the hotel would be built), but voting against it made me a bedfellow with Harlan Crow, the owner of the current convention center hotel in Dallas. Seeing as how Crow is so crooked that he needs four people to help him screw his pants on every morning, I felt nice and slimy voting for the right thing.
The good news about the Dallas fiasco is that while the vote was "close" (and this is a town I love, but the politics are so sleazy that when a candidate starts talking about "rising above the mudslinging," it's only because his opponent found some really good dirt on him, so there were probably lots of shenanigans involved), this was just a vote against a clause preventing city money from being used for private construction. The hotel still needs actual money to start construction, and we have enough legal challenges that it probably won't happen for years, if ever. Robert Dechard needed to make this deal happen fast, as he's looking at his newspaper and television station empire imploding before the end of the year, and it's probably not going to happen in time to keep his staff from hanging him by his toes and using him as a Viking pinata.
Posted by Texas Triffid Ranch | May 21, 2009 4:57 PM
TTR - The Dallas convention center hotel site is already being cleared. Unfortunately the demolition crew hit a water main, all to the glee of blog commenters.
http://cityhallblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2009/05/serious-water-situation-at-dal.html
Posted by A Hopeful | May 21, 2009 5:26 PM
someone should ask private hotels and or POVA just how much business they are losing to taxpayer subsidized rates at the Nines. What of their future if PDC / taxpayers have an additional 250 rooms to let at below market rates?
Posted by cat | May 22, 2009 6:29 AM
Thanks, Hopeful: I missed that one. It looks as if Dechard is trying his best to ram this through.
What I still find interesting is exactly how this is supposed to pay for itself, at a time when existing Portland hotels are already drowning. I was checking on Portland hotel rates the other day for a book signing gig, and I was shocked to discover that the rates are already cheaper, in real dollars, than they were in 1996 when I moved to Portland. Getting to Portland from the rest of the country is still a nightmare (I loved the United flight that would have required me to lay over in Seattle for eight hours that was still half again as expensive as the Southwest flight I booked that's nearly a nonstop), but the hotels are already scrambling to snag anybody who's coming to the city for business or pleasure. When the best hotels are already dropping their prices to levels that would have been insane five years ago, why the hell would any sane individual want to book a room in the Convention Center hotel unless it's offering better prices and perks?
(Yes, I know: since it's at the Convention Center, the hotel would be handling bulk reservations for hotels. That's already presuming that the conventions are coming in. I brought up this issue about six months back, and some Cat Piss Man got into my face about how Portland had just hosted an open source software conference that might return to Portland. Just what the city needs: a regular run of Cory Doctorow wannabes who come into town with one shirt and one $20 bill, and don't change either for the whole week.)
Posted by Texas Triffid Ranch | May 22, 2009 2:08 PM