My head spins. Anyone thought the Blazers would be playing for the 3 seed on the last day of the regular season? In the west?

If it weren't for Joe Dumars dumping Billups's contract, Portland would be playing for the 2.

Thanks Jack, you made it a somewhat simple to understand.

I'm excited that the Blazers are unlikely to be a five seed with Houston being a four seed. That game against the Rockets about ten days ago was tough.

I don't know if I'd call it unlikely. If I had to predict Wednesday night, I'd say Houston will lose to Dallas and San Antonio will win over the Hornets. If that's the case, a Blazer loss would mean a 5 seed against the Rockets. And Denver is a tough opponent for Portland.

I think what it boils down to is that the Blazers get the home court advantage with a Blazer win or a Spurs loss.

With the Nuggos locked into the #2 seed I can not imagine more than token resistance on Wednesday. Billups, Anthony and Kmart may be at El Gaucho before the end of third quarter.

Now for the next odds: The chance of sunshine for the Thursday rally at Pioneer Square.

I cannot imagine more than token resistance on Wednesday.

You may be on to something there. In the first round, Denver would probably rather play Dallas (whom they swept) than New Orleans (with whom they split) or Utah (with whom they also split). By the start of the Blazer-Nuggets game, however, we'll know all those other teams' final records, and since Denver is locked at 2, there will be nothing they can do about the identity of their first-round opponent. The game will mean a heck of a lot more to the Blazers than it will to the Nuggets.

Perhaps Denver would look ahead to the second round of the playoffs. If they beat the Blazers Wednesday, Denver sets itself up for a second round matchup with Houston or San Antonio. Houston beat them 3-1 in the regular season, including the last three. Denver took 2 out of 3 from the Spurs. Depending on the outcome of the Spurs and Rockets games, Denver might have an incentive to take the night off.

If they lose to the Blazers Wednesday, there's a chance the Nuggets might get Portland in the second round. The two teams will have a regular season split up to that point. Denver would probably rather play Portland than Houston, even if they lost the season finale to the Blazers.

More boiling down:

Most likely first-round opponent: Spurs

Most likely second-round opponent: Lakers

Most likely seed: 4

Obviously playing a first round against the weakened Spurs is our best chance to advance. But that also means a 2nd round against the Lakers, which we'll lose. I think in a 7-game series the Blazers can beat any team except the Lakers, so I'm rooting for a Houston loss and Blazers win for a 3 seed, which has the potential to get us to the conference finals. That would be great experience off of which to build for the next few years.

Wow, a truly great post. Very helpful breakdown. Thanks!

I am so excited right now. The team has been a blast to follow this season. I'm probably going to make the mid-day commute from the job in Wilsonville to the rally Thursday.

Go Blazers!

No outcome is a foregone conclusion. I *hate* that the NBA and NBC/TNT/ESPN focus on the Cavs and Lakers as if everyone else is an also-ran. This last week, the only drama they've focused on is the Lakers quest to catch the Cavs for home court advantage in the finals. Excuse me, but neither team has played a playoff game yet. So presumptuous. What, the three-way (nearly four-way tie) for spots 3 through 5 isn't dramatic enough?

It's a shame because we're in a new golden age for the NBA... There hasn't been this much parity and depth in talent since the 80's.

Memo to David Stern: Drama is good. Hope is good. Dreaming big is good... From teams 1 through 8. As the saying goes, "this is why they play the games".

I *hate* that the NBA and NBC/TNT/ESPN focus on the Cavs and Lakers as if everyone else is an also-ran.

Add ESPN to that. I watched Sportscenter all the way through this morning, and there was no mention of the Blazers blowing out OKC. I was thinking we'd get at least a spot in Top 10 plays for the alley-oop to Bayless towards the end of the game.

The focus is on LAL and Cleveland because a Kobe vs. King James Finals matchup would be the most watched NBA Finals of this decade. Also, you have to add in the fact that we have not seen teams as dominant as the Lakers and Cavaliers since the Jazz and Bulls. The traditional contenders (San Antonio and Detroit) will have the darndest time getting out of the first round due to injuries and crappy play going into the post season and the up and coming teams have a hard time winning on the road, thus leading to the focus on the most consistent teams (LAL, Cleveland, Boston and Orlando).

No-one talked or cared about the OKC blowout because it was a foregone conclusion. Portland is great at home. However, a 20-21 road record is not convincing any paid sports analyst that you should be taken seriously to go deep in the playoffs. Especially after the Blazers allowed the second worst team (LA Clippers) to come back and tie it after Portland had a 15 point lead at the half a couple of days ago.

Weakened Spurs...I don't believe it. Everything changes in the playoffs. There will be no back-to-backs which have been the Spurs achilles heel down the stretch. Instead, there are days of rest between games and travel. Chances for Duncan to heal up. And preparing for just one opponent is a bonus for both teams. It will all come down to talent. (Having home court would be nice, too.)

Hey Jack, I think you're off on your last prediction. If Houston loses, but Portland and SA win, then Portland is the 4 seed, and plays Houston in the first round.

The factor you aren't taking into account is that the division winner is the first tie-breaker. Because SA would be the division winner in that senario, they are seeded above Portland, even though Portland technically has the tie breaker over them.

It's all explained over on Blazer's Edge: http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/4/14/834639/april-14th-seeding-report

I *hate* that the NBA and NBC/TNT/ESPN focus on the Cavs and Lakers as if everyone else is an also-ran.

The fix is in for a Kobe vs. LeBron finals--it's all anyone in TV land wants. In other words, if Blazers-Lakers were to go to Game 7, you can expect the usual ref suspects to be mighty generous with the whistles whenever King Kobe gets his hands on the ball. LaMarcus will be charged with a foul on Kobe while being 8 feet away, just wait and see.

I will always remember my first year in Portland, swept up in a sea of humanity along 4th. 1977 - how sweet that was.
They're baaack. Yipee, red hot and rollin, rip freakin city. Is this premature? Immature? I don't care. Go Blazers - one game at a time sweet Jesus.

Because SA would be the division winner in that senario, they are seeded above Portland, even though Portland technically has the tie breaker over them.

I don't think so. If I am reading the NBA official primer on this correctly, division record is relevant only if the two teams are from the same division.

Does anybody have a link to the complete, official league tiebreaker rules?

I didn't read every single comment but if Blazers, Spurs, and Rockets all win, that also means that Denver loses, and all 4 teams are tied with the same record.

Because Denver is the NW Division Champs, I guess it only affects Denver's position with the No. 2 & 3 spot and doesn't really affect the Blazers, right?

Here is the link stating that "Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division" under TIEBREAKER BASIS:...(http://www.nba.com/statistics/playoff_picture.html)

Denver is all but guaranteed the no. 2 seed at this point. They wrapped up the division leader status earlier. The NBA does not award divisions early, to take them away once teams tie records after the last game.

To further complicate matters, even if Portland did beat Denver, the regular season match-up would stand tied at 2-2.

Denver is not moving anywhere.

Jack I am impressed you can do that calculation on April 14 ...

It appears to me that Denver does not have the 2 seed locked up -- even Houston could still get ahead of them.

Jack,

That's an interesting read of the rules - I hadn't caught that but it does sound like you have a point that the language seems to give Portland a chance to still get the second seed.

But to add yet another voice to the matter, here's the NBA's official take on the matter:
http://www.nba.com/2009/news/features/04/14/scenarios0413/index.html

And of anyone, I guess it's their interpretation that's going to carry the day.