We're down to the last four weeks of the regular season in the pro football underdog pool in which I play. Our pool runs through the playoffs, but in those games there are fewer points to be won, and a greater chance that someone you're jockeying with for money is going to pick the same game as you. And so the wide-open part of the season-long competition has about a month to go. That's still a lot of time for the gamblers to get lucky.
Last week, we were among a crowd who correctly picked Atlanta over San Diego, but there were also quite a few players who scored even bigger with the Broncos over the Jets. As things stand, I'm in third place -- 4 points behind the leader and 3½ behind the second place player. Nine and a half points behind me in fourth place is my nearest challenger.
This week's lineup has quite a few big point spreads, and so I'll need to stay on my toes. Remember, in this pool I need to pick an underdog that will win its game outright, and not just beat the spread. If I'm right, I get the number of points that the underdog was predicted to lose by. Here's this week's slate:
14 ST. LOUIS at Arizona
13.5 CINCINNATI at Indianapolis
13.5 CLEVELAND at Tennessee
10 OAKLAND at San Diego (Thursday)
9 KANSAS CITY at Denver
7.5 PHILADELPHIA at NY Giants
6.5 JACKSONVILLE at Chicago
6 HOUSTON at Green Bay
5 SEATTLE vs. New England
5 WASHINGTON at Baltimore
4 SAN FRANCISCO vs. NY Jets
3 TAMPA BAY at Carolina
3 ATLANTA at New Orleans
3 DALLAS at Pittsburgh
1 MIAMI at Buffalo
Oh, the intrigue! Off the top of my head. I'm sort of liking Oakland, Jacksonville, and Houston, but even Philly could do it to the Giants, who seem about due for a letdown game.
Since the Oakland game is a Thursday number, I'll have to call that one (if it's my pick) in the next 24 hours or so. Otherwise, I've got 'til Saturday night.
I appreciate all the suggestions readers send my way on this -- they give me a lot to think about. Last week everybody seemed to see what was coming. This week, I think, is more difficult.
Comments (15)
Don't overlook how the suspensions will work in all of this (esp. for NO ... and a line on Minnesota v. Detroit if it gets made). This is going to take some thought.
Yeah, I like Tampa as the safe(ish) bet. Or Atlanta. If you really want to swing for the fences, you could take KC. I know they suck, but I'm a Broncos fan and ever since their opening day win over Oakland they've lost a bunch of games they should've won (KC once already, Oakland at home, Jax at home) and won a few they should've lost (@ Jets last week, @ Falcons). No one can get their head around this team. There's no way they should lose to KC... so they probably will.
Take the Skins. The Redskins-Ravens game was moved to 8:15 Sunday night, and the Ravens are 0-6 in their past 6 prime time games. The last time they won in prime time was December 2005.
If I haven't mentioned this before, definitely wait until the day before to make your picks. For example, I believe that 5.5 Jets over titans spread was all the way down to 1 by gametime, making it the math pick of the week by kickoff. Closing lines are the most efficient.
That said, Oakland looks good right now, and I'd take them if there are no major shifts in the next 24 hours.
Buy some time. Skip the Oakland game. I like Geek Squad's advice, and I think Nate's logic on Denver being hard to predict is sound too. However, Tim's blowing smoke rings picking games based on what time of day they start.
Okay, it's a good thing you didn't pick Oakland to upset. You didn't, did you?
Reaching for the stars pick - Houston could somehow find a way to grind down GreenBay. Houston's getting warmer as the weather is getting colder, and GreenBay has signs of an end of season meltdown coming (see New Orleans).
Safer pick - Dallas to beat Pittsburgh. Dallas NEEDS this win - Pittsburgh doesn't. Dallas has Pacman back, and Willie Parker will be rusty upon his return.
Charamba, Douro 2008
Horse Heaven Hills, Cabernet 2010
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills Pinot Grigio 2011
Avignonesi, Montepulciano 2004
Lorelle, Willamette Valley Pinot Noir 2011
Villa Antinori, Toscana 2007
Mercedes Eguren, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
Lorelle, Columbia Valley Cabernet 2011
Purple Moon, Merlot 2011
Purple Moon, Chardonnnay 2011
Abacela, Vintner's Blend No. 12
Opula Red Blend 2010
Liberte, Pinot Noir 2010
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Indian Wells Red Blend 2010
Woodbridge, Chardonnay 2011
King Estate, Pinot Noir 2011
Famille Perrin, Cotes du Rhone Villages 2010
Columbia Crest, Les Chevaux Red 2010
14 Hands, Hot to Trot White Blend
Familia Bianchi, Malbec 2009
Terrapin Cellars, Pinot Gris 2011
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2009
Campo Viejo, Rioja, Termpranillo 2010
Ravenswood, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2010
Waterbrook, Reserve Merlot 2009
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills, Pinot Grigio 2011
Tarantas, Rose
Chateau Lajarre, Bordeaux 2009
La Vielle Ferme, Rose 2011
Benvolio, Pinot Grigio 2011
Nobilo Icon, Pinot Noir 2009
Lello, Douro Tinto 2009
Quinson Fils, Cotes de Provence Rose 2011
Anindor, Pinot Gris 2010
Buenas Ondas, Syrah Rose 2010
Les Fiefs d'Anglars, Malbec 2009
14 Hands, Pinot Gris 2011
Conundrum 2012
Condes de Albarei, Albariño 2011
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2007
Penelope Sanchez, Garnacha Syrah 2010
Canoe Ridge, Merlot 2007
Atalaya do Mar, Godello 2010
Vega Montan, Mencia
Benvolio, Pinot Grigio
Nobilo Icon, Pinot Noir, Marlborough 2009
Portuga, Rose 2011
Revelation, Chardonnay, Pays d'Oc 2010
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 2005
Monte Alto, Tinto Reserva 2005
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Cabernet, Indian Wells 2009
Espiral, Vinho Rose
Vin-Koru, Pinot Gris 2011
14 Hands, Hot to Trot Red 2009
Rodney Strong, Cabernet, Sonoma 2009
Abacela, Vintner's Blend #11
Portuga, White 2010
La Bourgeoisie, Red 2009
Januik, Red 2009
Three Rivers, River's Red 2008
Kirkland, Alexander Valley Merlot 2008
Muga, Rioja Rose 2010
Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2009
Mauro Molino, Barbera d'Alba 2009
Garda Chiaretto Rose
Columbia Crest, Two Vines Vineyard 10 White
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Pinot Gris, Columbia Valley 2009
L'Hortus, Rose de Saignee 2010
Maculan, Pino & Toi 2008
McKinley Springs, Bombing Range Red 2008
Trader Joe's Pinot Gris 2009
Montes Alpha, Cabernet 2007
Gran Sasso, Sangiovese, Terre di Chieti 2009
Garda, Classico Chiaretto Rose
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 1999
Picos del Montgo, Tempranillo 2008
Chateau de Montmirail, Vacqueyras 2008
La Granja 360, Syrah 2009
Montgras, Carmenere Reserva 2009
Lange, Pinot Gris 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Cabernet 2008
Kirkland, Pinot Grigio 2010
Trader Joe's Coastal Syrah 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Merlot 2008
Trader Joe's Coastal Chardonnay 2009
Vieux Papes Red
Domaine de l'Aujardiere, Chardonnay 2009
Santa Rita, Cabernet, Medalla Real 2007
Penfold's, Koonunga Hill Shiraz Cabernet 2008
Guild, Red, Lot #02 2008
Dievole, Dievolino Sangiovese 2008
Laforet, Burgogne Chardonnay 2009
Columbia Winery, Merlot 2007
Bonterra, Cabernet 2008
Elk Cove, Pinot Gris 2009
Maquis Lien 2006
Scott Paul, Pinot Noir, Le Paulee 2007
The Occasional Book
Neil Young - Waging Heavy Peace
Mark Bego - Aretha Franklin, the Queen of Soul (2012 ed.)
Jenny Lawson - Let's Pretend This Never Happened
J.D. Salinger - Franny and Zooey
Charles Dickens - A Christmas Carol
Timothy Egan - The Big Burn
Deborah Eisenberg - Transactions in a Foreign Currency
Kurt Vonnegut Jr. - Slaughterhouse Five
Kathryn Lance - Pandora's Genes
Cheryl Strayed - Wild
Fyodor Dostoyevsky - The Brothers Karamazov
Jack London - The House of Pride, and Other Tales of Hawaii
Jack Walker - The Extraordinary Rendition of Vincent Dellamaria
Colum McCann - Let the Great World Spin
Niccolò Machiavelli - The Prince
Harper Lee - To Kill a Mockingbird
Emma McLaughlin & Nicola Kraus - The Nanny Diaries
Brian Selznick - The Invention of Hugo Cabret
Sharon Creech - Walk Two Moons
Keith Richards - Life
F. Sionil Jose - Dusk
Natalie Babbitt - Tuck Everlasting
Justin Halpern - S#*t My Dad Says
Mark Herrmann - The Curmudgeon's Guide to Practicing Law
Barry Glassner - The Gospel of Food
Phil Stanford - The Peyton-Allan Files
Jesse Katz - The Opposite Field
Evelyn Waugh - Brideshead Revisited
J.K. Rowling - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
David Sedaris - Holidays on Ice
Donald Miller - A Million Miles in a Thousand Years
Mitch Albom - Have a Little Faith
C.S. Lewis - The Magician's Nephew
F. Scott Fitzgerald - The Great Gatsby
William Shakespeare - A Midsummer Night's Dream
Ivan Doig - Bucking the Sun
Penda Diakité - I Lost My Tooth in Africa
Grace Lin - The Year of the Rat
Oscar Hijuelos - Mr. Ives' Christmas
Madeline L'Engle - A Wrinkle in Time
Steven Hart - The Last Three Miles
David Sedaris - Me Talk Pretty One Day
Karen Armstrong - The Spiral Staircase
Charles Larson - The Portland Murders
Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
Steven D. Stark - Meet the Beatles
Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
Rick Moody - Garden State
Jonathan Schwartz - All in Good Time
David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim
Anthony Holden - Big Deal
Robert J. Spitzer - The Spirit of Leadership
James McManus - Positively Fifth Street
Jeff Noon - Vurt
Road Work
Miles run year to date: 21
At this date last year: 52
Total run in 2012: 129
In 2011: 113
In 2010: 125
In 2009: 67
In 2008: 28
In 2007: 113
In 2006: 100
In 2005: 149
In 2004: 204
In 2003: 269
Comments (15)
Don't overlook how the suspensions will work in all of this (esp. for NO ... and a line on Minnesota v. Detroit if it gets made). This is going to take some thought.
Posted by Kevin | December 3, 2008 8:49 AM
How about a pool on the moment Portland's per capita long-term debt breaks the five-figure barrier?
If it happens, I'll pick the moment five minutes after Adams takes the oath of office.
Posted by Gen. Ambrose Burnside, Ret. | December 3, 2008 10:13 AM
I like Houston in this one for the points, but Tampa Bay if you want to play it safe and just get a victory.
Posted by Dave J. | December 3, 2008 10:53 AM
Washington or Tampa Bay.
Posted by Bark Munster | December 3, 2008 11:32 AM
I really like Oakland in this one. SD is way broken, and them hooligan Raiders fans love the drive down to Chardonnay-ville.
I'd normally think Cincy is a good upset too, but Indy is playing for their playoff lives. I'm thinking they get it done at home.
Posted by Sebastian | December 3, 2008 11:35 AM
Yeah, I like Tampa as the safe(ish) bet. Or Atlanta. If you really want to swing for the fences, you could take KC. I know they suck, but I'm a Broncos fan and ever since their opening day win over Oakland they've lost a bunch of games they should've won (KC once already, Oakland at home, Jax at home) and won a few they should've lost (@ Jets last week, @ Falcons). No one can get their head around this team. There's no way they should lose to KC... so they probably will.
Posted by Nate Currie | December 3, 2008 11:40 AM
Take the Skins. The Redskins-Ravens game was moved to 8:15 Sunday night, and the Ravens are 0-6 in their past 6 prime time games. The last time they won in prime time was December 2005.
Posted by Tim | December 3, 2008 1:34 PM
If I haven't mentioned this before, definitely wait until the day before to make your picks. For example, I believe that 5.5 Jets over titans spread was all the way down to 1 by gametime, making it the math pick of the week by kickoff. Closing lines are the most efficient.
That said, Oakland looks good right now, and I'd take them if there are no major shifts in the next 24 hours.
Posted by Geek Squad | December 3, 2008 3:30 PM
Buy some time. Skip the Oakland game. I like Geek Squad's advice, and I think Nate's logic on Denver being hard to predict is sound too. However, Tim's blowing smoke rings picking games based on what time of day they start.
Posted by Mark | December 3, 2008 5:26 PM
Where's the Minnesota at Detroit spread?
This could be Detroit's week if the steroid suspensions in Minnesota are reinstated (TRO issued but NFL is fighting it).
see coverage of legal battle:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3743006
The Williamses are pillars of the Viking's D line (a run stopper and a pass rusher). Could be worth a shot if the spread is wide enough.
Posted by PanchoPdx | December 4, 2008 9:08 AM
Until it's known whether the players are going to get an injunction against the suspensions, it's probably impossible to set odds on that game.
Posted by Jack Bog | December 4, 2008 10:07 AM
Philly....McNabb didn't like being benched and showed it last week.
(I told you I would have to get one right sooner or later....GO FALCONS)
Posted by mp97303 | December 4, 2008 11:30 AM
That said, Oakland looks good right now,
Like I say, the math and the Vegas bookies take you only so far.
Posted by Jack Bog | December 4, 2008 10:00 PM
Okay, it's a good thing you didn't pick Oakland to upset. You didn't, did you?
Reaching for the stars pick - Houston could somehow find a way to grind down GreenBay. Houston's getting warmer as the weather is getting colder, and GreenBay has signs of an end of season meltdown coming (see New Orleans).
Safer pick - Dallas to beat Pittsburgh. Dallas NEEDS this win - Pittsburgh doesn't. Dallas has Pacman back, and Willie Parker will be rusty upon his return.
Posted by Mark | December 5, 2008 3:11 PM
Holy crap...I right 2 weeks in a row
Posted by mp97303 | December 7, 2008 5:06 PM