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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on December 3, 2008 8:23 AM. The previous post in this blog was Sarah Palin's fake pregnancy belly. The next post in this blog is Almost famous. Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

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Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Gone to the 'dogs

We're down to the last four weeks of the regular season in the pro football underdog pool in which I play. Our pool runs through the playoffs, but in those games there are fewer points to be won, and a greater chance that someone you're jockeying with for money is going to pick the same game as you. And so the wide-open part of the season-long competition has about a month to go. That's still a lot of time for the gamblers to get lucky.

Last week, we were among a crowd who correctly picked Atlanta over San Diego, but there were also quite a few players who scored even bigger with the Broncos over the Jets. As things stand, I'm in third place -- 4 points behind the leader and 3½ behind the second place player. Nine and a half points behind me in fourth place is my nearest challenger.

This week's lineup has quite a few big point spreads, and so I'll need to stay on my toes. Remember, in this pool I need to pick an underdog that will win its game outright, and not just beat the spread. If I'm right, I get the number of points that the underdog was predicted to lose by. Here's this week's slate:

14 ST. LOUIS at Arizona
13.5 CINCINNATI at Indianapolis
13.5 CLEVELAND at Tennessee
10 OAKLAND at San Diego (Thursday)
9 KANSAS CITY at Denver
7.5 PHILADELPHIA at NY Giants
6.5 JACKSONVILLE at Chicago
6 HOUSTON at Green Bay
5 SEATTLE vs. New England
5 WASHINGTON at Baltimore
4 SAN FRANCISCO vs. NY Jets
3 TAMPA BAY at Carolina
3 ATLANTA at New Orleans
3 DALLAS at Pittsburgh
1 MIAMI at Buffalo

Oh, the intrigue! Off the top of my head. I'm sort of liking Oakland, Jacksonville, and Houston, but even Philly could do it to the Giants, who seem about due for a letdown game.

Since the Oakland game is a Thursday number, I'll have to call that one (if it's my pick) in the next 24 hours or so. Otherwise, I've got 'til Saturday night.

I appreciate all the suggestions readers send my way on this -- they give me a lot to think about. Last week everybody seemed to see what was coming. This week, I think, is more difficult.

Comments (15)

Don't overlook how the suspensions will work in all of this (esp. for NO ... and a line on Minnesota v. Detroit if it gets made). This is going to take some thought.

How about a pool on the moment Portland's per capita long-term debt breaks the five-figure barrier?

If it happens, I'll pick the moment five minutes after Adams takes the oath of office.

I like Houston in this one for the points, but Tampa Bay if you want to play it safe and just get a victory.

Washington or Tampa Bay.

I really like Oakland in this one. SD is way broken, and them hooligan Raiders fans love the drive down to Chardonnay-ville.

I'd normally think Cincy is a good upset too, but Indy is playing for their playoff lives. I'm thinking they get it done at home.

Yeah, I like Tampa as the safe(ish) bet. Or Atlanta. If you really want to swing for the fences, you could take KC. I know they suck, but I'm a Broncos fan and ever since their opening day win over Oakland they've lost a bunch of games they should've won (KC once already, Oakland at home, Jax at home) and won a few they should've lost (@ Jets last week, @ Falcons). No one can get their head around this team. There's no way they should lose to KC... so they probably will.

Take the Skins. The Redskins-Ravens game was moved to 8:15 Sunday night, and the Ravens are 0-6 in their past 6 prime time games. The last time they won in prime time was December 2005.

If I haven't mentioned this before, definitely wait until the day before to make your picks. For example, I believe that 5.5 Jets over titans spread was all the way down to 1 by gametime, making it the math pick of the week by kickoff. Closing lines are the most efficient.

That said, Oakland looks good right now, and I'd take them if there are no major shifts in the next 24 hours.

Buy some time. Skip the Oakland game. I like Geek Squad's advice, and I think Nate's logic on Denver being hard to predict is sound too. However, Tim's blowing smoke rings picking games based on what time of day they start.

Where's the Minnesota at Detroit spread?

This could be Detroit's week if the steroid suspensions in Minnesota are reinstated (TRO issued but NFL is fighting it).

see coverage of legal battle:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3743006

The Williamses are pillars of the Viking's D line (a run stopper and a pass rusher). Could be worth a shot if the spread is wide enough.

Until it's known whether the players are going to get an injunction against the suspensions, it's probably impossible to set odds on that game.

Philly....McNabb didn't like being benched and showed it last week.

(I told you I would have to get one right sooner or later....GO FALCONS)

That said, Oakland looks good right now,

Like I say, the math and the Vegas bookies take you only so far.

Okay, it's a good thing you didn't pick Oakland to upset. You didn't, did you?

Reaching for the stars pick - Houston could somehow find a way to grind down GreenBay. Houston's getting warmer as the weather is getting colder, and GreenBay has signs of an end of season meltdown coming (see New Orleans).

Safer pick - Dallas to beat Pittsburgh. Dallas NEEDS this win - Pittsburgh doesn't. Dallas has Pacman back, and Willie Parker will be rusty upon his return.

Holy crap...I right 2 weeks in a row

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In Vino Veritas

Falset, Garnacha Rose, Montsant 2006
Castello di Bossi, Chianti Classico 2004
Domaine Chandon, Pinot Noir, La Riviere Sonoma 2006
Brazin, Old Vine Zinfandel, Lodi 2006
B.R. Cohn, Silver Label Cabernet 2006
Casillero del Diablo, Cabernet 2007
Gentil Hugel, Alsace 2006
Mesoneros de Castilla, Ribero del Duero, Rosado 2008
Cor, Momentum 2007
Santa Margherita, Pinot Grigio 2006
Rubico, Lacrima di Morro d'Alba 2007
Gilstrap Brothers, Reserve Merlot 2003
Conundrum 2007
Chandler Reach, 36 Red
Santa Rita, Reserve Cabernet 2005
Marietta, Old Vine Red Lot 47
L'Ecole No. 41, Recess Red 2006
Dom Martinho, Red 2004
Beaulieu, Georges Latour 1994
Caymus, Cabernet 1995
Columbia Winery, Merlot 2005
Bergevin Lane, Columbia Valley Cabernet 2005
Savigny-les-Beaune, Les Lavieres 2003
David Hill, Reserve Merlot, Rogue Valley 2006
Educated Guess, Cabernet 2006
Maquis Lien, Red 2005
Charles Smith, Kung Fu Girl Riesling 2007
David Hill, Farmhouse White
Robert Mondavi Solaire, Cabernet 2005
Castello Monaci, Liante, Salice Salentino 2006
Ricardo Santos, Malbec 2006
Quinta da Espiga, Tinto 2006
Charles Smith, Holy Cow Merlot 2006
Charles Smith, Boom Boom Syrah 2006
Charles Smith, The Honorable Pinot Gris 2007
Santa Rita, Cabernet Reserva 2005
King Estate, Pinot Gris 2007
Gloria, Douro, Tinto 2002
Bogle, Petite Sirah Port, Clarksburg 2005
Cardwell Hill, Pinot Noir 2004
Silkwood, Red Duet Cabernet-Syrah 2004
Portuga, Vinho Branco 2006, 2007
Osborne, Solaz 2004
Santa Rita, Cabernet, Reserva 2005
Penfold's, Koonunga Hill, Shiraz Cabernet 2006
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Cabernet, Indian Wells 2004
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Merlot, Horse Heaven Hills 2004
Hannah Nicole, Red 2004
Penfold's, Koonunga Hill Shiraz Cabernet 2005
Protocolo, Red 2005
Woodbridge, Chardonnay 2006
Portuga, Vinho Branco 2006
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 1998
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 1996
Kirkland, Roogle Shiraz 2004
Garda, Classico Chiaretto
A to Z, Oregon Pinot Gris 2005
I Giusti & Zanza, Nemorino 2006
Treana, Marsanne-Viognier, Central Coast 2005
Fife, Syrah, "Stanford" 2000
B.R. Cohn, Silver Label Cabernet 2005
Marques de Casa Concha, Cabernet 2005
Santi, Sortesele Pinot Grigio 2006
Al Muvedre, Tinto Joven 2006
Layer Cake, Shiraz 2006
Gritti, Ca' Andrea, Umbria red 2005
Altos de Luzon, Jumilla 2004
Thomas Leithner, Zweigelt 2004
Cain Cuvee NV 3
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Merlot 2003
Meridian, Sauvignon Blanc 2005
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Paringa, Shiraz 2005
King Estate, Pinot Gris 2005
Canoe Ridge, Merlot 2003
Maculan, Pino & Toi 2005
Kris, Pinot Grigio 2006
Silvan Ridge, Pinot Gris 2006
Fife, Mendocino Syrah, "Stanford" 2000
Castle Rock, Cabernet, Paso Robles 2005
Willakenzie, Pinot Gris 2006
The Show, Cabernet 2005
Essencia Valdemar, Rioja Rose 2006
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Merlot, Horse Heaven Hills 2004
Beaulieu Vineyard. Napa Valley Cabernet 2004
Irony, Cabernet, Napa Valley 2003
Rosenblum, Petite Sirah, Heritage Clones 2005
Fra Guerau, Montsant 2002
Barefoot Chardonnay
Kana, Syrah 2004
Castell Salegg, Chardonnay, Alto Adige 2004
Fetish, The Watcher Shiraz 2004
Gold Note, Fair Play Zinfandel 2005
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Canoe Ridge Estate Cabernet 2003
Ponzi, Pinot Noir 2004
Red Diamond, Merlot 2003
Mateus, Rose
Benton Lane Pinot Noir 2004
Penya Cadiella Vins de Comtat 2003

The Occasional Book

Ivan Doig - Bucking the Sun
Penda Diakité - I Lost My Tooth in Africa
Grace Lin - The Year of the Rat
Oscar Hijuelos - Mr. Ives' Christmas
Madeline L'Engle - A Wrinkle in Time
Steven Hart - The Last Three Miles
David Sedaris - Me Talk Pretty One Day
Karen Armstrong - The Spiral Staircase
Charles Larson - The Portland Murders
Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
Steven D. Stark - Meet the Beatles
Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
Rick Moody - Garden State
Jonathan Schwartz - All in Good Time
David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim
Anthony Holden - Big Deal
Robert J. Spitzer - The Spirit of Leadership
James McManus - Positively Fifth Street
Jeff Noon - Vurt

Road Work

Miles run year to date: 26
At this date last year: 13
Total run in 2008: 28
In 2007: 113
In 2006: 100
In 2005: 149
In 2004: 204
In 2003: 269
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