'Dog days begin to wane (Jack Bog's Blog)

Snow is flying and Christmas is near, but the big daddies of pro football keep pounding each other. There are two weekends to go in the regular season, and then it's on to the playoffs.

In the underdog pool in which I play, last week I found no inspiration and lamely chose Oakland over New England -- a pick that proved gruesomely wrong in about the first five minutes of the game. I don't feel too bad, because the only other selections that looked good to me were Kansas City and San Francisco, and they both bit it as well. Meanwhile, however, the two people with whom I was jockeying for the lead in the pool correctly picked Cincinnati over the Redskins, and so they've pulled quite a bit ahead of me in first and second place. (The two of them divine their choices every week by reading the entrails of freshly killed mammals, I swear.)

Anyway, I'm now 10½ points behind first place and 8 points behind second, but still a comfortable 15 points ahead of the fourth-place player. Now more than ever, I need a win, and for the evil powers ahead of me to fail.

So help me out, readers: Who in this pack of underdogs (in caps) can win its game outright (no fair using the spread) this week? If I pick correctly, I get the number of points specified on the left:

8 ARIZONA at New England
7.5 OAKLAND vs. Houston
7 DETROIT vs. New Orleans
7 BUFFALO at Denver
6.5 JACKSONVILLE vs. Indianapolis (Thursday)
5.5 ST. LOUIS vs. San Francisco
5 SEATTLE vs. NY Jets
4.5 BALTIMORE at Dallas (Saturday)
4.5 WASHINGTON vs. Philadelphia
4.5 GREEN BAY at Chicago
4 KANSAS CITY vs. Miami
3.5 ATLANTA at Minnesota
3 SAN DIEGO at Tampa Bay
3 CAROLINA at NY Giants
1.5 CINCINNATI at Cleveland
1.5 TENNESSEE vs. Pittsburgh

To my untrained eyes, Jacksonville, St. Louis, and Atlanta have appeal, but with all sorts of playoff intrigue going on, it's hard to tell. Speak up right away if you're with me on Jacksonville -- that one's Thursday night. If you think the Ravens will do what the Giants couldn't and win in Dallas, you'll need to so advise me before kickoff on Saturday night.

The pool will continue through the playoffs, but the point prizes will likely be smaller, and with fewer games to pick, there aren't likely to be many shifts in the standings at that point. This is it -- carpe diem!

Comments (14)

ATL is a nice safe pick, but AZ is your choice if you have some "big ones"

Posted by mp97303 | December 16, 2008 7:19 PM

mmmmmmm..... I think .... 7 BUFFALO at Denver. Buffalo of course.

Posted by de daeng | December 16, 2008 7:22 PM

Carolina will get its defining win of the season (the equivalent of the Giants' win over NE in the regular season last year).

Ravens over the Cowboys. It looked like Romo tweaked his low back last Sunday. This game will resemble the Pitt-Dallas game a week ago.

Washington over Philly. I know, conventional wisdom says that Philly hits its stride this time of year. But I say that Andy Reid and the Birds falter and he (and maybe McNabb) are gone next year. This game starts Philly's tailspin into oblivion.

Who am I, you may ask, to make such magical picks? I am nothin' but right.

Posted by Not a betting man unless its someone else's money | December 16, 2008 7:47 PM

The Lions are going to win one of their last two games. Home against the Saints, who'll be playing out the string, seems very reachable to me.

Posted by Roger | December 16, 2008 8:20 PM

I would go with Buffalo. They have a good shot and you need to throw it down the field.

Posted by Shoes are for throwing | December 16, 2008 9:06 PM

A little game theory question:

Does fourth place pay any $$.

If not then you know that the guy behind you is going to pick a longshot b/c he has to win big two weeks in a row to catch you.

If it does pay then he's probably going to play it safe (depending on his lead over number 5).

If you know that he has to pick a longshot, then you know he'll probably pick AZ (most points and you can make a better argument that they have the tools to win than OAK or DET).

If you believe that he's going to pick AZ then you ought to as well (you'll be guaranteed third and you'll have a realistic shot at moving up).

If you don't think he's going to make the longshot AZ bet, then I'd go with Baltimore.

Posted by PanchoPdx | December 16, 2008 9:45 PM

Fourth does pay. I'm currently 1.5 points out of fourth and 16.5 behind The Professor. It's not a bad place. Last year I was in a similar spot and had a legit shot at taking the whole thing down on the final weekend. It's definitely time though to start taking some healthy swings.

Go Cardinals!

Posted by Chris Snethen | December 16, 2008 10:59 PM

The Jets are going to choke in Seattle. Pick the Hawks, QB Seneca Wallace has been playing well.

Posted by Westside Guy | December 16, 2008 11:24 PM

I like the Seahawks to upset the Jets as well. Holmgren will get inside Favre's head. And the Seahawks offense has been showing a lot of promise lately. I don't think Indy is likely to get upset at this point. They've hit their stride just in time for a decent playoff run. And the tealeaves say Dallas is going to lose to Baltimore because 1) Romo has a bad back, 2) Barber is hurt, and 3) the team as a whole is just ready to fall apart. The Cinci upset of New Orleans is very intriguing, because no team has had a winless season, right? And what motivation does New Orleans have right now?

Posted by Mark | December 17, 2008 9:43 AM

I also recommend Buffalo over Denver. You might as well go for a big win, and Denver is so unpredictable that they could easily get blown out. They could also win by 30, so its a gamble. I just don't see the Cardinals getting it done in New England.

Posted by Drivin' Fool | December 17, 2008 9:58 AM

Mr. Snethen is "table talking" and attempting to goad Mr. Bog into making wild and reckless choices. Beware this man!

Posted by Not a betting man unless its someone else's money | December 17, 2008 10:57 AM

I would go with Buffalo over Denver. They only lost to the Jets on a fumble at the end of the game last week. And the Ravens over the Cowboys. I was really impressed with the Ravens defense in their last game. They are truly relentless.

Posted by Dave A. | December 17, 2008 2:27 PM

Detroit. I, unfortunately, believe that even the Lions can't go 0-16. I hope I'm wrong.

Posted by Kevin | December 17, 2008 2:42 PM

Forgot to add: the caution against picking Detroit, is that NO plays on turf as well, and seems to fair well on it.

About

Search

Clippings

Archives

Links

E-mail, Feeds, 'n' Stuff

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

'Dog days begin to wane

Comments (14)

Sponsors

In Vino Veritas

The Occasional Book

Road Work