Tweeter looking for a woofer (Jack Bog's Blog)

It's hard to believe, but we're already at Week 12 of the pro football underdog pool in which I play. Last week I over-studied the pickings and went with Baltimore -- a poor choice -- and two players right around me correctly chose Cleveland and Denver. (Nobody took the Jets, which was way easy money.) And so I slipped from second place to third place, with a small pack still coming up close behind me.

Reader Mark left some good ideas in last week's comments -- he thought we should go with Kansas City, Cleveland, or the Jets. Two out of three ain't bad, but of course, we get to pick only one 'dog per week.

It's time for a winner, people. Can you see an underdog (in caps) that can win its contest outright this weekend? The points listed next to each game are how many I'll win if I choose that winning 'dog. Otherwise, they have no significance:

10.5 CINCINNATI at Pittsburgh (Thursday)
10 SAN FRANCISCO at Dallas
9.5 OAKLAND at Denver
9 ST. LOUIS vs. Chicago
8.5 DETROIT vs. Tampa Bay
5.5 NY JETS at Tennessee
3.5 KANSAS CITY vs. Buffalo
3.5 ARIZONA vs. NY Giants
3.5 SEATTLE vs. Washington
3 HOUSTON at Cleveland
3 INDIANAPOLIS at San Diego
2.5 GREEN BAY at New Orleans
2.5 MINNESOTA at Jacksonville
2 NEW ENGLAND at Miami
1 CAROLINA at Atlanta
1 PHILADELPHIA at Baltimore

A lot of close games there -- could be time to go for three or three and a half points with a sure thing. Preliminary thoughts: Niners, Jets, Arizona or Indy.

Comments (11)

The NINERS, of course....keeping in mind that the road to hell is paved with people who try.

Posted by Mark Mason | November 18, 2008 10:44 PM

As a Chicago fan, I am nervous about St. Louis until I see Jackson will not be running the ball. The 49ers were my thought for the big score (though @ Dallas seems to quash that dream). Indy seems like the surest bet with Green Bay being second (and worth less points).

Posted by Kevin | November 19, 2008 9:25 AM

San Francisco

Posted by Pat Malach | November 19, 2008 12:39 PM

Again my dog can't pull it out in the last seconds.

Trust me, Jack, going for a 3.5 or less is terrible strategy. Of course they're not sure things or 50/50 to come through - if you think so, go get rich in Vegas. You want no part of a 39% chance at getting 3.5 points.

I like the Rams at home.

Posted by Geek Squad | November 19, 2008 2:09 PM

As the season wears on, 'dogs with less than a 25 percent chance of winning (per the bookies) have been breaking through less and less. And anyway, if I'm going to throw a long bomb, I'd rather go with Gore and the boys than with the Lambs.

Posted by Jack Bog | November 19, 2008 3:43 PM

If you're going to stick with games that give 3.5 points or more, the only game I like is the Jets upseting the Titans, because the Titans luck has to run out sooner or later. But this is a 50/50 shot.

I'm fairly certain Indy will beat SD, because Peyton's hitting his stride while the Chargers are imploding.

And GB is going to beat New Orleans, because Aaron Rogers is the real deal, and the Saints have had a very soft schedule so far.

Posted by Mark | November 20, 2008 10:36 AM

As the season wears on, 'dogs with less than a 25 percent chance of winning (per the bookies) have been breaking through less and less.

Variance. They're not actually less likely to win. Again, if they were, why not just make a killing in Vegas?

The Rams at home are a much better pick than the niners on the road this week. The spread for the STL game is down to 7.5. 9 is a great number. But, sometimes you gotta go with your gut.

Posted by Geek Squad | November 20, 2008 2:51 PM

They're both the "value" games this week. But the last time the very best play won was six weeks ago, when the Lambs beat Washington on the road. They defeated Dallas the next week at home, too, but they haven't come through since.

Posted by Jack Bog | November 21, 2008 4:18 AM

I have a really good feeling about this weeks pick..... CINCY over Pitt. I am sure this one is gonna be a winner. Gotta go for the gusto baby!!!

Posted by mp97303 | November 21, 2008 2:06 PM

Did you pick the 49ers? Hope you didn't go for the gusto ;-)

Posted by Kevin | November 22, 2008 11:45 AM

Whodathunk it would be OAK?

Posted by Kevin | November 24, 2008 9:28 AM