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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on November 18, 2008 9:33 PM. The previous post in this blog was False alarm. The next post in this blog is Everybody, step one rung down. Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

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Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Tweeter looking for a woofer

It's hard to believe, but we're already at Week 12 of the pro football underdog pool in which I play. Last week I over-studied the pickings and went with Baltimore -- a poor choice -- and two players right around me correctly chose Cleveland and Denver. (Nobody took the Jets, which was way easy money.) And so I slipped from second place to third place, with a small pack still coming up close behind me.

Reader Mark left some good ideas in last week's comments -- he thought we should go with Kansas City, Cleveland, or the Jets. Two out of three ain't bad, but of course, we get to pick only one 'dog per week.

It's time for a winner, people. Can you see an underdog (in caps) that can win its contest outright this weekend? The points listed next to each game are how many I'll win if I choose that winning 'dog. Otherwise, they have no significance:

10.5 CINCINNATI at Pittsburgh (Thursday)
10 SAN FRANCISCO at Dallas
9.5 OAKLAND at Denver
9 ST. LOUIS vs. Chicago
8.5 DETROIT vs. Tampa Bay
5.5 NY JETS at Tennessee
3.5 KANSAS CITY vs. Buffalo
3.5 ARIZONA vs. NY Giants
3.5 SEATTLE vs. Washington
3 HOUSTON at Cleveland
3 INDIANAPOLIS at San Diego
2.5 GREEN BAY at New Orleans
2.5 MINNESOTA at Jacksonville
2 NEW ENGLAND at Miami
1 CAROLINA at Atlanta
1 PHILADELPHIA at Baltimore

A lot of close games there -- could be time to go for three or three and a half points with a sure thing. Preliminary thoughts: Niners, Jets, Arizona or Indy.

Comments (11)

The NINERS, of course....keeping in mind that the road to hell is paved with people who try.

As a Chicago fan, I am nervous about St. Louis until I see Jackson will not be running the ball. The 49ers were my thought for the big score (though @ Dallas seems to quash that dream). Indy seems like the surest bet with Green Bay being second (and worth less points).

San Francisco

Again my dog can't pull it out in the last seconds.

Trust me, Jack, going for a 3.5 or less is terrible strategy. Of course they're not sure things or 50/50 to come through - if you think so, go get rich in Vegas. You want no part of a 39% chance at getting 3.5 points.

I like the Rams at home.

As the season wears on, 'dogs with less than a 25 percent chance of winning (per the bookies) have been breaking through less and less. And anyway, if I'm going to throw a long bomb, I'd rather go with Gore and the boys than with the Lambs.

If you're going to stick with games that give 3.5 points or more, the only game I like is the Jets upseting the Titans, because the Titans luck has to run out sooner or later. But this is a 50/50 shot.

I'm fairly certain Indy will beat SD, because Peyton's hitting his stride while the Chargers are imploding.

And GB is going to beat New Orleans, because Aaron Rogers is the real deal, and the Saints have had a very soft schedule so far.

As the season wears on, 'dogs with less than a 25 percent chance of winning (per the bookies) have been breaking through less and less.

Variance. They're not actually less likely to win. Again, if they were, why not just make a killing in Vegas?

The Rams at home are a much better pick than the niners on the road this week. The spread for the STL game is down to 7.5. 9 is a great number. But, sometimes you gotta go with your gut.

They're both the "value" games this week. But the last time the very best play won was six weeks ago, when the Lambs beat Washington on the road. They defeated Dallas the next week at home, too, but they haven't come through since.

I have a really good feeling about this weeks pick..... CINCY over Pitt. I am sure this one is gonna be a winner. Gotta go for the gusto baby!!!

Did you pick the 49ers? Hope you didn't go for the gusto ;-)

Whodathunk it would be OAK?

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In Vino Veritas

Falset, Garnacha Rose, Montsant 2006
Castello di Bossi, Chianti Classico 2004
Domaine Chandon, Pinot Noir, La Riviere Sonoma 2006
Brazin, Old Vine Zinfandel, Lodi 2006
B.R. Cohn, Silver Label Cabernet 2006
Casillero del Diablo, Cabernet 2007
Gentil Hugel, Alsace 2006
Mesoneros de Castilla, Ribero del Duero, Rosado 2008
Cor, Momentum 2007
Santa Margherita, Pinot Grigio 2006
Rubico, Lacrima di Morro d'Alba 2007
Gilstrap Brothers, Reserve Merlot 2003
Conundrum 2007
Chandler Reach, 36 Red
Santa Rita, Reserve Cabernet 2005
Marietta, Old Vine Red Lot 47
L'Ecole No. 41, Recess Red 2006
Dom Martinho, Red 2004
Beaulieu, Georges Latour 1994
Caymus, Cabernet 1995
Columbia Winery, Merlot 2005
Bergevin Lane, Columbia Valley Cabernet 2005
Savigny-les-Beaune, Les Lavieres 2003
David Hill, Reserve Merlot, Rogue Valley 2006
Educated Guess, Cabernet 2006
Maquis Lien, Red 2005
Charles Smith, Kung Fu Girl Riesling 2007
David Hill, Farmhouse White
Robert Mondavi Solaire, Cabernet 2005
Castello Monaci, Liante, Salice Salentino 2006
Ricardo Santos, Malbec 2006
Quinta da Espiga, Tinto 2006
Charles Smith, Holy Cow Merlot 2006
Charles Smith, Boom Boom Syrah 2006
Charles Smith, The Honorable Pinot Gris 2007
Santa Rita, Cabernet Reserva 2005
King Estate, Pinot Gris 2007
Gloria, Douro, Tinto 2002
Bogle, Petite Sirah Port, Clarksburg 2005
Cardwell Hill, Pinot Noir 2004
Silkwood, Red Duet Cabernet-Syrah 2004
Portuga, Vinho Branco 2006, 2007
Osborne, Solaz 2004
Santa Rita, Cabernet, Reserva 2005
Penfold's, Koonunga Hill, Shiraz Cabernet 2006
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Cabernet, Indian Wells 2004
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Merlot, Horse Heaven Hills 2004
Hannah Nicole, Red 2004
Penfold's, Koonunga Hill Shiraz Cabernet 2005
Protocolo, Red 2005
Woodbridge, Chardonnay 2006
Portuga, Vinho Branco 2006
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 1998
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 1996
Kirkland, Roogle Shiraz 2004
Garda, Classico Chiaretto
A to Z, Oregon Pinot Gris 2005
I Giusti & Zanza, Nemorino 2006
Treana, Marsanne-Viognier, Central Coast 2005
Fife, Syrah, "Stanford" 2000
B.R. Cohn, Silver Label Cabernet 2005
Marques de Casa Concha, Cabernet 2005
Santi, Sortesele Pinot Grigio 2006
Al Muvedre, Tinto Joven 2006
Layer Cake, Shiraz 2006
Gritti, Ca' Andrea, Umbria red 2005
Altos de Luzon, Jumilla 2004
Thomas Leithner, Zweigelt 2004
Cain Cuvee NV 3
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Merlot 2003
Meridian, Sauvignon Blanc 2005
Canoe Ridge, Merlot 2003
Paringa, Shiraz 2005
King Estate, Pinot Gris 2005
Canoe Ridge, Merlot 2003
Maculan, Pino & Toi 2005
Kris, Pinot Grigio 2006
Silvan Ridge, Pinot Gris 2006
Fife, Mendocino Syrah, "Stanford" 2000
Castle Rock, Cabernet, Paso Robles 2005
Willakenzie, Pinot Gris 2006
The Show, Cabernet 2005
Essencia Valdemar, Rioja Rose 2006
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Merlot, Horse Heaven Hills 2004
Beaulieu Vineyard. Napa Valley Cabernet 2004
Irony, Cabernet, Napa Valley 2003
Rosenblum, Petite Sirah, Heritage Clones 2005
Fra Guerau, Montsant 2002
Barefoot Chardonnay
Kana, Syrah 2004
Castell Salegg, Chardonnay, Alto Adige 2004
Fetish, The Watcher Shiraz 2004
Gold Note, Fair Play Zinfandel 2005
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Canoe Ridge Estate Cabernet 2003
Ponzi, Pinot Noir 2004
Red Diamond, Merlot 2003
Mateus, Rose
Benton Lane Pinot Noir 2004
Penya Cadiella Vins de Comtat 2003

The Occasional Book

Ivan Doig - Bucking the Sun
Penda Diakité - I Lost My Tooth in Africa
Grace Lin - The Year of the Rat
Oscar Hijuelos - Mr. Ives' Christmas
Madeline L'Engle - A Wrinkle in Time
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David Sedaris - Me Talk Pretty One Day
Karen Armstrong - The Spiral Staircase
Charles Larson - The Portland Murders
Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
Steven D. Stark - Meet the Beatles
Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
Rick Moody - Garden State
Jonathan Schwartz - All in Good Time
David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim
Anthony Holden - Big Deal
Robert J. Spitzer - The Spirit of Leadership
James McManus - Positively Fifth Street
Jeff Noon - Vurt

Road Work

Miles run year to date: 26
At this date last year: 13
Total run in 2008: 28
In 2007: 113
In 2006: 100
In 2005: 149
In 2004: 204
In 2003: 269
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