Oregon Measure 64, restricting payroll deduction of union dues from government employees, was named this blog's Most Misleading Campaign of the election, on both sides. And it's going to go right down to the bitter end of the vote count. Right now, the measure is passing statewide by around 15,000 votes. In Multnomah County, where there are still more than 100,000 votes to count, it's being rejected by a margin of 62 percent to 38 percent. Unlike Merkley-Smith, where the Multnomah vote should bring it home for the lefties, on this measure it's going to be a real squeaker.
Comments (10)
It's going to fail, down to 13k ahead and with so many votes left in MultCo Sizemore bowls another 0fer....
As for 64, it's ahead by 13,000. The no's should pick up around 30,000 in Multnomah County, but lose around 12,000 around the rest of the state. It will be quite close -- less than 10,000 difference out of more than a million and a half votes.
Actually it could be closer than that. If you assume your 62-38 percentage continues that would only be 24,000 more votes in multnomah county. But that number doesn't include the down ticket undervote which I would expect to drop the multnomah pickup to the 18 K range.
The last numbers I ran, there were 408,589 ballots that hadn't been counted statewide. Of these, 147,575 were in Multnomah. I would project that as 90,773 no to 56,802 yes -- a 33,971 pickup, not counting the undervote. The down-ticket undervote so far is 7.45 percent compared to the Presidential election, and so call it 31,000.
Outside Multnomah, there were 261,014 ballots uncounted. I'm projecting 137,580 yes to 123,433 there, only a 14,146-vote difference, not counting the undervote. Factor in the undervote, and yes comes out at around 13,000.
That's an 18,000-vote swing, and 64 was ahead at that point by around 13,000.
Unfortunately, the latest county results are not coordinated with the "latest" statewide results shown by the Secretary of State. As a result, my math shows that M 64 will lose, just barely.
The state and the county aren't that far out of sync. But I agree with you -- if I had to call it, I'd say 64 is going to go down, but by only the slightest of margins.
We were right. It lost, currently by about 1% of the vote (16,000 votes). Mult Co. still has about 25,000 more votes to count, so the "no" margin will increase.
Duh! I know that. My point is that if it weren't for Sizemore/Mannix 61, there would have been no 57. The Legislature played defense, but we still passed what is essentially a major extension of Measure 11. That's a big win for the tough-on-crime crowd.
Charamba, Douro 2008
Horse Heaven Hills, Cabernet 2010
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills Pinot Grigio 2011
Avignonesi, Montepulciano 2004
Lorelle, Willamette Valley Pinot Noir 2011
Villa Antinori, Toscana 2007
Mercedes Eguren, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
Lorelle, Columbia Valley Cabernet 2011
Purple Moon, Merlot 2011
Purple Moon, Chardonnnay 2011
Abacela, Vintner's Blend No. 12
Opula Red Blend 2010
Liberte, Pinot Noir 2010
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Indian Wells Red Blend 2010
Woodbridge, Chardonnay 2011
King Estate, Pinot Noir 2011
Famille Perrin, Cotes du Rhone Villages 2010
Columbia Crest, Les Chevaux Red 2010
14 Hands, Hot to Trot White Blend
Familia Bianchi, Malbec 2009
Terrapin Cellars, Pinot Gris 2011
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2009
Campo Viejo, Rioja, Termpranillo 2010
Ravenswood, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2010
Waterbrook, Reserve Merlot 2009
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills, Pinot Grigio 2011
Tarantas, Rose
Chateau Lajarre, Bordeaux 2009
La Vielle Ferme, Rose 2011
Benvolio, Pinot Grigio 2011
Nobilo Icon, Pinot Noir 2009
Lello, Douro Tinto 2009
Quinson Fils, Cotes de Provence Rose 2011
Anindor, Pinot Gris 2010
Buenas Ondas, Syrah Rose 2010
Les Fiefs d'Anglars, Malbec 2009
14 Hands, Pinot Gris 2011
Conundrum 2012
Condes de Albarei, Albariño 2011
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2007
Penelope Sanchez, Garnacha Syrah 2010
Canoe Ridge, Merlot 2007
Atalaya do Mar, Godello 2010
Vega Montan, Mencia
Benvolio, Pinot Grigio
Nobilo Icon, Pinot Noir, Marlborough 2009
Portuga, Rose 2011
Revelation, Chardonnay, Pays d'Oc 2010
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 2005
Monte Alto, Tinto Reserva 2005
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Cabernet, Indian Wells 2009
Espiral, Vinho Rose
Vin-Koru, Pinot Gris 2011
14 Hands, Hot to Trot Red 2009
Rodney Strong, Cabernet, Sonoma 2009
Abacela, Vintner's Blend #11
Portuga, White 2010
La Bourgeoisie, Red 2009
Januik, Red 2009
Three Rivers, River's Red 2008
Kirkland, Alexander Valley Merlot 2008
Muga, Rioja Rose 2010
Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2009
Mauro Molino, Barbera d'Alba 2009
Garda Chiaretto Rose
Columbia Crest, Two Vines Vineyard 10 White
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Pinot Gris, Columbia Valley 2009
L'Hortus, Rose de Saignee 2010
Maculan, Pino & Toi 2008
McKinley Springs, Bombing Range Red 2008
Trader Joe's Pinot Gris 2009
Montes Alpha, Cabernet 2007
Gran Sasso, Sangiovese, Terre di Chieti 2009
Garda, Classico Chiaretto Rose
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 1999
Picos del Montgo, Tempranillo 2008
Chateau de Montmirail, Vacqueyras 2008
La Granja 360, Syrah 2009
Montgras, Carmenere Reserva 2009
Lange, Pinot Gris 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Cabernet 2008
Kirkland, Pinot Grigio 2010
Trader Joe's Coastal Syrah 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Merlot 2008
Trader Joe's Coastal Chardonnay 2009
Vieux Papes Red
Domaine de l'Aujardiere, Chardonnay 2009
Santa Rita, Cabernet, Medalla Real 2007
Penfold's, Koonunga Hill Shiraz Cabernet 2008
Guild, Red, Lot #02 2008
Dievole, Dievolino Sangiovese 2008
Laforet, Burgogne Chardonnay 2009
Columbia Winery, Merlot 2007
Bonterra, Cabernet 2008
Elk Cove, Pinot Gris 2009
Maquis Lien 2006
Scott Paul, Pinot Noir, Le Paulee 2007
The Occasional Book
Neil Young - Waging Heavy Peace
Mark Bego - Aretha Franklin, the Queen of Soul (2012 ed.)
Jenny Lawson - Let's Pretend This Never Happened
J.D. Salinger - Franny and Zooey
Charles Dickens - A Christmas Carol
Timothy Egan - The Big Burn
Deborah Eisenberg - Transactions in a Foreign Currency
Kurt Vonnegut Jr. - Slaughterhouse Five
Kathryn Lance - Pandora's Genes
Cheryl Strayed - Wild
Fyodor Dostoyevsky - The Brothers Karamazov
Jack London - The House of Pride, and Other Tales of Hawaii
Jack Walker - The Extraordinary Rendition of Vincent Dellamaria
Colum McCann - Let the Great World Spin
Niccolò Machiavelli - The Prince
Harper Lee - To Kill a Mockingbird
Emma McLaughlin & Nicola Kraus - The Nanny Diaries
Brian Selznick - The Invention of Hugo Cabret
Sharon Creech - Walk Two Moons
Keith Richards - Life
F. Sionil Jose - Dusk
Natalie Babbitt - Tuck Everlasting
Justin Halpern - S#*t My Dad Says
Mark Herrmann - The Curmudgeon's Guide to Practicing Law
Barry Glassner - The Gospel of Food
Phil Stanford - The Peyton-Allan Files
Jesse Katz - The Opposite Field
Evelyn Waugh - Brideshead Revisited
J.K. Rowling - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
David Sedaris - Holidays on Ice
Donald Miller - A Million Miles in a Thousand Years
Mitch Albom - Have a Little Faith
C.S. Lewis - The Magician's Nephew
F. Scott Fitzgerald - The Great Gatsby
William Shakespeare - A Midsummer Night's Dream
Ivan Doig - Bucking the Sun
Penda Diakité - I Lost My Tooth in Africa
Grace Lin - The Year of the Rat
Oscar Hijuelos - Mr. Ives' Christmas
Madeline L'Engle - A Wrinkle in Time
Steven Hart - The Last Three Miles
David Sedaris - Me Talk Pretty One Day
Karen Armstrong - The Spiral Staircase
Charles Larson - The Portland Murders
Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
Steven D. Stark - Meet the Beatles
Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
Rick Moody - Garden State
Jonathan Schwartz - All in Good Time
David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim
Anthony Holden - Big Deal
Robert J. Spitzer - The Spirit of Leadership
James McManus - Positively Fifth Street
Jeff Noon - Vurt
Road Work
Miles run year to date: 21
At this date last year: 52
Total run in 2012: 129
In 2011: 113
In 2010: 125
In 2009: 67
In 2008: 28
In 2007: 113
In 2006: 100
In 2005: 149
In 2004: 204
In 2003: 269
Comments (10)
It's going to fail, down to 13k ahead and with so many votes left in MultCo Sizemore bowls another 0fer....
Posted by Don | November 5, 2008 9:42 PM
Not really. Measure 57 is a big win for Sizemore.
As for 64, it's ahead by 13,000. The no's should pick up around 30,000 in Multnomah County, but lose around 12,000 around the rest of the state. It will be quite close -- less than 10,000 difference out of more than a million and a half votes.
Posted by Jack Bog | November 5, 2008 9:48 PM
Actually it could be closer than that. If you assume your 62-38 percentage continues that would only be 24,000 more votes in multnomah county. But that number doesn't include the down ticket undervote which I would expect to drop the multnomah pickup to the 18 K range.
Posted by Dylan | November 5, 2008 10:38 PM
The last numbers I ran, there were 408,589 ballots that hadn't been counted statewide. Of these, 147,575 were in Multnomah. I would project that as 90,773 no to 56,802 yes -- a 33,971 pickup, not counting the undervote. The down-ticket undervote so far is 7.45 percent compared to the Presidential election, and so call it 31,000.
Outside Multnomah, there were 261,014 ballots uncounted. I'm projecting 137,580 yes to 123,433 there, only a 14,146-vote difference, not counting the undervote. Factor in the undervote, and yes comes out at around 13,000.
That's an 18,000-vote swing, and 64 was ahead at that point by around 13,000.
Posted by Jack Bog | November 5, 2008 10:45 PM
Unfortunately, the latest county results are not coordinated with the "latest" statewide results shown by the Secretary of State. As a result, my math shows that M 64 will lose, just barely.
Posted by Dan Meek | November 6, 2008 1:18 AM
The state and the county aren't that far out of sync. But I agree with you -- if I had to call it, I'd say 64 is going to go down, but by only the slightest of margins.
Posted by Jack Bog | November 6, 2008 1:26 AM
We were right. It lost, currently by about 1% of the vote (16,000 votes). Mult Co. still has about 25,000 more votes to count, so the "no" margin will increase.
Posted by Dan Meek | November 6, 2008 1:56 PM
Hey at least now we know where most of the public employee union types live.
Posted by Steve | November 6, 2008 2:13 PM
Quick Point:
"Not really. Measure 57 is a big win for Sizemore."
Jack,
Measure 57 is a legislative referral meant to give Oregonians an option to 61. It is not a Sizemore measure...
Posted by Christa | November 6, 2008 3:36 PM
Duh! I know that. My point is that if it weren't for Sizemore/Mannix 61, there would have been no 57. The Legislature played defense, but we still passed what is essentially a major extension of Measure 11. That's a big win for the tough-on-crime crowd.
Posted by Jack Bog | November 6, 2008 4:36 PM