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Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Why Merkley's going to win

Last night voters went to bed thinking that the race between Gordon Smith and Jeff Merkley for Smith's U.S. Senate seat was too close to call. But a careful look indicates to me that that's probably not the case.

At this hour, the latest return numbers are on this order of magnitude, from the KGW website:

47% Gordon Smith (490250 votes)
47% Jeff Merkley (484722 votes)
6% Dave Brownlow (57778 votes)

Over on the Oregon secretary of state website, we find:

Smith 472,538 47.25%
Merkley 469,304 46.92%
Brownlow 55,649 5.56%

But those counts apparently include far less than half the vote from Multnomah County, where Merkley is winning something like 68-28%. For example, the secretary of state's numbers from Multnomah are:

Smith 36,060 27.93%
Merkley 87,756 67.96%
Brownlow 4,845 3.75%
Write-in 461 0.36%

That's a total of 129,122 votes, but in Multnomah County the official turnout page shows that there were 360,551 votes cast in that county. In other words, there are still more than 225,000 votes yet to be counted in Multnomah. Indeed, at this hour the Multnomah website itself has counted only 133,908 of the 360,551 votes cast.

If there are 200,000 Multnomah ballots still sitting in a pile, uncounted, Merkley should win those by about 136,000 to 56,000. That's an additional 80,000-vote margin. Could Smith win the rest of the uncounted votes around the state -- maybe 550,000 -- by more than that? Can Smith win the rest of the uncounted vote by 315,000 to 235,000? Keep in mind that there appear to be uncounted votes from populous Washington and Clackamas Counties in that mix, and Merkley is leading in both of those counties.

Outside of Multnomah County, the secretary of state's returns are:

Smith 436,478 50.11%
Merkley 381,458 43.80%
Brownlow 50,804 5.83%
Write-in 2,231 0.26%

At that rate, if there were 550,000 uncounted votes outside Multnomah County, Smith would win by 275,605 to 240,900 -- nowhere near the 80,000 lead that Merkley's going to pick up in Multnomah.

This is starting to sound a lot like the 2002 gubernatorial race, in which it took until the day after the election for Multnomah County to finish counting and crown Ted Kulongoski the winner. (BTW, happy 68th birthday, Governor Ted.) Unless I'm missing something, by the end of the day today Merkley will be the new U.S. senator-elect.

UPDATE, 1:27 p.m.: I'm staying with this projection. More here.

Comments (23)

And Measure 64 could go down, too.

You forgot the real reason Merkley will win - Bradbury has his chance for payback to Gordon Smith. If it's close at all, Bradbury can pull enough levers to make it happen.

The fact that Jeff Merkley could not win this race, probably the most winnable Senate race in the country, shows what kind of politician he is. I've been to Eastern Oregon. I've lived out there, I know the people. There is no love for Bush in the East. There is little love for Smith. But there is absolutely no love for anyone who pretends to know what's best for them without actually listening to the people.

Merkley's campaign focused on Eugene and Portland. Yes, he had his 100 city tour, but it was empty and not championed- what if you had a TV commercial showing Merkley in Baker, Condon, Burns, K-Falls, rather than one more anti-Smith ad?

Obama won the USA with a 50 state strategy. Oregonians deserve a candidate with a 39-county strategy, someone who listens to every corner of the state. Novick knew that. If Merkley couldn't get Gilliam County, for chrissakes, he doesn't deserve to be our senator, and he is assured of being a single termer even if he pulls it out, unless he stops looking in the mirror and starts shaking hands and *listening* to people in the rest of this great state.

-Mikey G

Tim Hibbits called it for Merkley last night and that man is extremely accurate. I expect by the time Mult. Co. is done being counted he will come out the the leader. I haven't decided yet if that is good or bad.

I haven't decided yet if that is good or bad.

I'd say it is neither good nor bad. Good, if Smith is out, as it's one less conservative vote in the Senate. Bad, inasmuch as we have the genuine tragedy of Steve Novick's loss in the primary. If he had been the candidate yesterday, we'd have something good.

Oregonians deserve a candidate with a 39-county strategy, someone who listens to every corner of the state. Novick knew that.

That's why I voted for Novick. It was depressing to see Merkley run such a tired, cliched campaign while the man at the top of the ticket ran such an innovative, inspired (and inspirational) campaign. I think Novick was a bigger gamble, perhaps, but is a politician more like Obama than is Merkley.

I still think Merkley will win, but wasn't impressed by his campaign, which mostly depended on Obama's coattails in the urban centers.

When did we add 3 new counties?

Y'know, it's like we're former lives of each other, Jack, joined as twins separated before birth. I mean, you and me do the same things at the same times unattended. (And in the nitwit of Cheney: "So?")

I saw the Multnomah ballot-count 'gap' at the same late-night hour as you, saw Merkley's 'cushion' and reached your conclusion, too, and I went to bed and you went to post this.

In other news, Franken wins the final in Minnesota by less than 1000 votes. When the recount is done it is going to be discovered that Rove's goons rigged Coleman's votes by the 1000's. Franken wins, Coleman gets convicted.

In Alaska, 250,ooo counted, of 500,ooo (total!), and Stevens' margin has varied between 6000 and 3000, and the trend is he is melting. Another recount. More vote-tally rigging discovered.

Golly, ol' "Tired of ... OREGONIANS" (above, 7:34 am), totally sounds like the LIARS person himself, talking. And in the same gone-bananas tone as LIARS, in recent days -- for instance yesterday, quote: "McCain will win." And right on what would be the timing of an 'I-shoulda-said' additional thought, (7:39 am) "... Antics?" sounds like the same person: LIARS. Saying as much as in the same bigoted b.s. as LIARS drenched himself and his act with on Monday, noted here ... and hatefully spit 'Antics' here, first thing in his morning, because his mental illness was outed here a day ago. (In his horoscope, besides showing a congenital LIAR, he has Mars-Venus issues.) I swear to Zeus, and to Pete, that hoser LIARS has lived by the bullet point and makes his destiny to die by a twitchy-finger PDX cop bullet, point-blank. Creepy.

You heard it here first:

Obama taps Earl as his transportation czar, and Oregon's second district is then represented by Steve Novick. How awesome would that be? Even cooler with Merkley, I guess.

I hope Smith wins. He deserves to win after being trashed almost every 10 minutes on TV with DNC attack ads.

P.S. All about where "... Antics?" goes searching for MANDATE:

In 2008, will media recall 2004 declarations of Bush "mandate"?, Nov 4, 2008 11:21pm ET.

Summary: Bush was re-elected in 2004 with 286 electoral votes ... the lowest electoral vote count for an incumbent president's re-election since 1916. Nevertheless, many in the media were quick to echo Cheney's assertion that "the nation" gave Bush "a mandate." It remains to be seen whether the media will apply the same standard in assessing the results of the 2008 election.

Among the many media outlets that declared Bush's victory a "mandate" (identified by affiliations and titles from 2004):

* Paula Zahn, CNN host: "A president with a mandate ....

* Chicago Tribune editorial board: "Bush ... starting with the electoral mandate he got last week."

* John Roberts, CBS News chief White House correspondent (now with CNN): " [Bush], with a mandate that perhaps many people didn't allow him to have in the first term ...."

* Andy Serwer, CNN host and Fortune magazine editor-at-large: " [Bush] seems to have a mandate ... to go ahead and do what he wants to ...."

* Christine Romans, CNN anchor: "... now the president has a mandate."

* Michele Kelemen, National Public Radio diplomatic correspondent: "Others doubt Bush will change much given his election mandate ...."

* Carol Costello, CNN anchor and reporter: "To American politics now and the mandate. Bush is promising to use his election mandate to push ...."

* Ceci Connolly, Washington Post staff writer: "Well, I certainly think that there is a mandate [for Bush]. I think we have to go a little bit careful in terms of what specifically it is a mandate for. ... continuing what he calls the 'war' on terrorism."

* Keith Miller, NBC News correspondent: "Bush, ... has a solid mandate ...."

* Wolf Blitzer, CNN anchor: "My sense is that the president will see this as a mandate ... he's going to say, he's got a mandate ... and by all accounts he does."

* Chris Matthews, MSNBC host: "Yesterday voters reelected [sic] Bush, giving him a mandate ...."

The Media Matters (dot ORG) website documents many more media propaganda poopyheads, parrot-talking "mandate mandate mandate" ... but I've cited enough, you get the idea.

Probably we all get the idea where LIARS "Antics?" -- ego-checking his infamy 'Q' on MediaMatters -- got the word 'mandate' echoing in his airhead, and came to puke it sarcastically on Merkley.

Uh, LIARS, yeah Merkley has a MANDATE, as you said so your media-mouth self.

And the big footprint of Obama entitles him to be Soul-of-President 4 LIFE.

This is my first General Election in Oregon. Can someone tell me why, as of 10 a.m. the morning after, my county (Multnomah) has counted only half the ballots?

Earl gets Sec. of Trans. & Steve gets to replace David Wu? How's that gonna work?

It works for me.

Can someone tell me why, as of 10 a.m. the morning after, my county (Multnomah) has counted only half the ballots?

First, they have to be edited.

Why is it that you have to be an ex-Californian to support Merkley?

I was greatly surprised that some people who voted for Obama voted for Smith. He's just another rich stuffed shirt who does nothing.

As Russell Baker once noted, the study of geography has declined precipitously since the days when National Geographic was the only place young boys could see pictures of naked women.

So far on this one section, we've had someone declare there are 39 counties in Oregon (there are just 36) and have Earl Blumenauer representing the 2nd District (mainly west Portland to the coast), when he represents the 3rd District (which is Multnomah County east of the Willamette).

Ballot counting in Multnomah County was slowed way down by thousands of people dropping ballots off on Tuesday. Also, there's a story circulating that the heavy rains yesterday flooded the basement of the county elections office, which hampered the vote count.

We also don't pay that much attention to the weather anymore. The heavy rains were on Monday.

"Also, there's a story circulating that the heavy rains yesterday flooded the basement of the county elections office, which hampered the vote count."

I'm sure that no one will offer conjecture to how many ballots were destroyed in the floodwaters, either. Isn't the Big Pipe supposed to be fixing this yet?

And like we don't have rain in Portland. And Multnomah Co. can't keep a raindrain cleared and maintain their buildings.

I think the City of Portland should declare the Multnomah Co. Elections Building a disaster zone and give them two days to fix the problem and fine and jail them for each day after.

"I think the City of Portland should declare the Multnomah Co. Elections Building a disaster zone and give them two days to fix the problem and fine and jail them for each day after."

I believe this would have been covered by Measure 61, had it passed, which it did, which means it failed. Maybe next time.

Ballot counting in Multnomah County was slowed way down by thousands of people dropping ballots off on Tuesday.

If that is indeed their excuse, that's pretty lame. There were 74,367 ballots received on Tuesday out of 366,560 total received. Therefore by 10 am the next morning they had counted fewer than half of the ballots? That makes no sense.

The overused term "Mandate" doesn't annoy me nearly as much as the incessant use of "in play" which quickly insinuated itself into any political discussion after it made its odious appearance on Deal or No Deal.

In fact "Mandate" once amused me when used in reference to Bush and his buddy Prince Bandar.


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