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Monday, November 3, 2008

Call the winner: Smith or Merkley?

If you haven't already done so, take our poll here.

Comments (8)

For what it's worth, all of the math, from polling to early voting numbers, strongly favors Merkley. His fate is fairly tied to Obama's: If by the time Oregon results come out, national polls have proven to be fairly accurate and we all but know Obama's our next president, expect Merkley to win fairly easily (3-10%). If the election's still in doubt, and especially if a place like Virginia (and to a lesser extent, OH/FL) has been called for McCain, Smith becomes much more likely to eek his way into reelection.

As it is, I put Merkley as better than an 80% favorite to be put into the senate by the Obama tide.

"Eek" says it all.

I, too, expect Obama's 'coattails' to stretch far down the ballots, and newbie voters who have jumped through the first-time hoops to be able to mark a single-candidate vote, once they have ballot in hand might be surprised to discover there are dozens more votes they can mark ... in places where they have no sensibility of the choice, even in simple terms such as D. or R., left or right.

And there they re-iterate "whatever Obama is having, or is." Which is 'Democrat' ... whatever that means, whatever the definition of 'is' is.

A secondary Merkley-assist could come from a (smaller) group of voters whose single-minded intent is voting anti-incumbent anywhere they find one. (There is mixed 'blessing' in this, though, as I know a one-time Smith-voter whose retaliatory anti-incumbent aim got cast for Brownlow ... "whoever he is," she said.)

My expectation thought surely must not be original. So why has it NOT been mentioned (much) in massmind media, unless they suppress it in order to purposely pose all the help for McCain that they can? Smaller-minded than the "horserace mentality" in which their 'election news' is framed, is then within that, isolating singular attention on a 'lead horse.' Inasmuch as it's a 'horserace,' (although it's not actually that, whatsoever), it is a 'race' between two 'herds' of 'horses.' IF media presented that wider view, TVworshippers could see that one herd is much more extensive with millions more followers, and see that not only the lead horse wins -- the whole herd wins.

So Tensk, what do think will happen?

In Oregon? I expect the vote tallies to match the 'exit polling' and to match the polls. I don't know what the polls are, an 8-point spread, I hear. I guess: Merkley 52 Smith 41 Other 7

Today, GoonGord went to his go-away guy, LIARS. After 20 minutes of cuddling together under the quilt of LIARS fact-suppression -- hey! get a room, you two ... off the air -- by way of saying good-bye, Gord choked up and cried, trying to say, "... listeners to LIARS, I really need your vote, it is really really important ...." It made me think they, too, see The Word of the polls, and the prophets, "written on the subway walls, tenement halls."

The very next LIARS caller dissed the programming, and said he was ex-Smith and had voted for Merkley because GoonGord "didn't act like a true conservative." I suppose that meant he judged by the senator's record in Washington, (although it hasn't appeared nor been mentioned in the re-election campaign ads); but maybe he simply meant big conservatives don't cry.

In other States? Without Vote-by-Mail, or some other style of all paper ballots, I expect the GOPfascist ballot burning to shave Obama's win from a 15-point spread down to a 5-point, 52 - 47. Obama voters are like hurricane Katrina waters: flooding under the GOP voting-barriers, over the GOP voting-barriers, and pouring through every tooth-gap in the GOP ballot-shredders. More than rightwing criminals can corrupt away all of. Besides, the W-decal SUVs are too afraid and too dejected to even show up, get out of the car, and vote.

Anyway, down-ballot everywhere I expect Democrats Democrats Democrats and Democrats over the top with Obama. ('Hungadunga, Hungadunga, Hungadunga, & McCormick' -- Groucho Marx's attorneys ... he left out a Hungadunga.)

Republican losers lips are saying LeftSocialism government brings no bi-partisanship, "doesn't reach across the aisle." But I expect they are too going to reach across the aisle ... with subpoenas and handcuffs.

I've said it before and I'll say it again.

Whatever you're smoking... I want some.

Y'know, if I may just offer some voodoo for thought. Planetary bellwether watching.

Saturn has reached opposition with Uranus, like the minute hand and the hour hand at 12:30. In (over-)simplified synonyms, Saturn means 'conventional,' 'tradition,' 'status quo' -- Saturn the ringed planet: confined, held in, parsimonious, anal retentive. Uranus means 'revolution,' 'shock,' 'sudden change,' 'eccentric' or 'odd' -- Uranus the only planet that rolls along its orbit on its equator, pointing its axial poles at the Sun.

What we understand from this is cultural change happens. At these times of exact opposition, Saturn o-o Uranus.

Nov. 4, 2008 | Feb. 5, '09 | Sept. 15, '09 | April 27, '10 | July 26, '10 (the most at the last, crescendo forte during Aug. and Sept. '10; death of 'patronage' and 'patrimony' then, homicides of establishment chiefs, CEOs, leading-figures, headliners).

April 1, 1965 | * Aug. 28, '65 | Feb. 24, '66 | Nov. 8, '66 | Jan. 6, '67.
(* the fullest-force period, 4 weeks June-to-July '65)

Oct. 1, 1918 | Jan. 25, '19 | Aug. 13, '19 | April 26, '20 | June 7, '20 (with 'aftermath' for approx. Sept. - Oct. '20 ... the time of the Teapot Dome (oil-reserves scandal) preliminaries, Harding's election, then he gets lethally food-poisoned on his train back from Alaska ....)

Three Saturn - Uranus oppositions in the last 100 years. Each one 'blurs' its effects over a 2- or 3-year duration, with specific vivid events that exhibit the 'general mood' on certain days during the interval. 'Hands of a clock' move smoothly in one forward direction; planets move forth-and-back, '2 steps forward and 1 step back' each year, and so they pass each other -- one going forward, one backing up -- then reverse motion and pass each other again, and reverse and again, etc.

Now, anyone can play this Interpretation Game. Just look up each date and find the (historic) news then which exactly matches the news on the next or another date listed.

Here's my takes:
* 1918-20 was the Russian Bolshevik revolution to civil war.
* 1965-67 was the hippies to communal living.
* 2008-10 is the coming into Majority by a coalition of minority groups.

* socialism
* socialism
* socialism

I suppose an equally valid alternative take on the three passages is:
* 1918-20 World War I, League of Nations
* 1965-67 Vietnam War, Civil Rights Law
* 2008-10 Oil War, Water War, Global Warming War, new Neuremberg-type war crimes trials, new re-ratification of Geneva Conventions or Human Rights Accord, the International Court of Justice instituted.

Now your turn. How are these things each like the other one: 1918, 1965, 2008? (Plus+2 in each case.) Or try: 1919, 1966, 2009. And remember, the planets affect the whole Earth and all the peoples' societal cultures on it, so don't limit your historic trend-spotting to only data points in American history (news).

Anyway, speaking on a personal note, as what's called a 'sensitive' in this racket called 'rat-race living,' I have felt a growing stress in social affairs of these recent months. My joints have been stiff and popping, sure sign of barometric low-pressure; I know a storm is fixin' to blow. I forecast a frigid cold winter; people need blankets and heat way more than usual.

Others have felt the social fault-line stresses, too. Just saying ... election day is the moment of the Saturn-Uranus opposition, so the instability should lessen after that. But it strongly persists and replays for the next couple years. What I know is meditate, breathe, read, do manual labors or exercise. Bathe. Repeat.

What are Democrats like?

Look, they're humans. So their vices are always (only) money, sex, or power.

Their virtues are egalitarian sensibilities, beneficial for humankind. Like the Enlightenment, the empowerment of Science, the invention of democracy.

I can't think of an example Democrat. Mahatma Gandhi, I suppose. Ralph Nader, if you will allow, has walked the walk his whole life.

It's just as well to not think of a Democrat in person. Anyone self-serving who campaigns to be elected has Power vice issues anyway. Democrat is something like a state of mind. It's the practice of going by group consensus and the people's common sense. The difficulty is distributing the most information to the most people, so that the group's consensus is an informed one. That's the people's power: Information flow. That's how the electeds exploit or undermine power: Compartmentalizing information.

I expect this generation of Democrats talks and walks different from previous types, (even as recent as Clinton-type Democrats, whatever that is), due to the information distribution in 'the internets tubes' (to the electeds and from the electeds), two-way, as internet wasn't available even as recently as Clinton's 1990s.

So, for what we can expect, in our public government, in our private lives, it seems to me that we can design our expectations, among ourselves, and send a copy to the electeds and tell them this is what we expect, now they better enact it.

Ask not what Democrats do for us. Ask what we might decide better democracy does.

Or, define Democrat by negation: Democrats are what Republicans are not. And here's the history book of what Republicans are: The New Know-Nothings, by Larry Beinhart, November 2, 2008. -- People who, frightened of the way things are changing, want to change back to that white, Protestant place it was, oh, sometime back before 1840. America Firsters. Anti-immigrant. Anti-foreigner. Anti-elite. Anti-intelligence.

So, the way to know a Republican is their fear. The way to know a Democrat is their absence of fear. We know our personal politics by the same test -- Fear: Got any?


As a lawyer/blogger, I get
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In Vino Veritas

Lange, Pinot Gris 2015
Kiona, Lemberger 2014
Willamette Valley, Pinot Gris 2015
Aix, Rosé de Provence 2016
Marchigüe, Cabernet 2013
Inazío Irruzola, Getariako Txakolina Rosé 2015
Maso Canali, Pinot Grigio 2015
Campo Viejo, Rioja Reserva 2011
Kirkland, Côtes de Provence Rosé 2016
Cantele, Salice Salentino Reserva 2013
Whispering Angel, Côtes de Provence Rosé 2013
Avissi, Prosecco
Cleto Charli, Lambrusco di Sorbara Secco, Vecchia Modena
Pique Poul, Rosé 2016
Edmunds St. John, Bone-Jolly Rosé 2016
Stoller, Pinot Noir Rosé 2016
Chehalem, Inox Chardonnay 2015
The Four Graces, Pinot Gris 2015
Gascón, Colosal Red 2013
Cardwell Hill, Pinot Gris 2015
L'Ecole No. 41, Merlot 2013
Della Terra, Anonymus
Willamette Valley, Dijon Clone Chardonnay 2013
Wraith, Cabernet, Eidolon Estate 2012
Januik, Red 2015
Tomassi, Valpolicella, Rafaél, 2014
Sharecropper's Pinot Noir 2013
Helix, Pomatia Red Blend 2013
La Espera, Cabernet 2011
Campo Viejo, Rioja Reserva 2011
Villa Antinori, Toscana 2013
Locations, Spanish Red Wine
Locations, Argentinian Red Wine
La Antigua Clásico, Rioja 2011
Shatter, Grenache, Maury 2012
Argyle, Vintage Brut 2011
Abacela, Vintner's Blend #16 Abacela, Fiesta Tempranillo 2014
Benton Hill, Pinot Gris 2015
Primarius, Pinot Gris 2015
Januik, Merlot 2013
Napa Cellars, Cabernet 2013
J. Bookwalter, Protagonist 2012
LAN, Rioja Edicion Limitada 2011
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 2009
Denada Cellars, Cabernet, Maipo Valley 2014
Marchigüe, Cabernet, Colchagua Valley 2013
Oberon, Cabernet 2014
Hedges, Red Mountain 2012
Balboa, Rose of Grenache 2015
Ontañón, Rioja Reserva 2015
Three Horse Ranch, Pinot Gris 2014
Archery Summit, Vireton Pinot Gris 2014
Nelms Road, Merlot 2013
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Pinot Gris 2014
Conn Creek, Cabernet, Napa 2012
Conn Creek, Cabernet, Napa 2013
Villa Maria, Sauvignon Blanc 2015
G3, Cabernet 2013
Chateau Smith, Cabernet, Washington State 2014
Abacela, Vintner's Blend #16
Willamette Valley, Rose of Pinot Noir, Whole Clusters 2015
Albero, Bobal Rose 2015
Ca' del Baio Barbaresco Valgrande 2012
Goodfellow, Reserve Pinot Gris, Clover 2014
Lugana, San Benedetto 2014
Wente, Cabernet, Charles Wetmore 2011
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King Estate, Pinot Gris 2015
Adelsheim, Pinot Gris 2015
Trader Joe's, Pinot Gris, Willamette Valley 2015
La Vite Lucente, Toscana Red 2013
St. Francis, Cabernet, Sonoma 2013
Kendall-Jackson, Pinot Noir, California 2013
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Napa Valley 2013
Erath, Pinot Noir, Estate Selection 2012
Abbot's Table, Columbia Valley 2014
Intrinsic, Cabernet 2014
Oyster Bay, Pinot Noir 2010
Occhipinti, SP68 Bianco 2014
Layer Cake, Shiraz 2013
Desert Wind, Ruah 2011
WillaKenzie, Pinot Gris 2014
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Des Amis, Rose 2014
Dunham, Trautina 2012
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Del Ri, Claret 2012
Stoppa, Emilia, Red 2004
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Albero, Bobal Rose 2015
Deer Creek, Pinot Gris 2015
Beaulieu, Rutherford Cabernet 2013
Archery Summit, Vireton Pinot Gris 2014
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Nine Hats, Red 2013
Benziger, Cabernet, Sonoma 2012
Roxy Ann, Claret 2012
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Conundrum, White 2013
St. Francis, Sonoma Cabernet 2012

The Occasional Book

Marc Maron - Waiting for the Punch
Phil Stanford - Rose City Vice
Kenneth R. Feinberg - What is Life Worth?
Kent Haruf - Our Souls at Night
Peter Carey - True History of the Kelly Gang
Suzanne Collins - The Hunger Games
Amy Stewart - Girl Waits With Gun
Philip Roth - The Plot Against America
Norm Macdonald - Based on a True Story
Christopher Buckley - Boomsday
Ryan Holiday - The Obstacle is the Way
Ruth Sepetys - Between Shades of Gray
Richard Adams - Watership Down
Claire Vaye Watkins - Gold Fame Citrus
Markus Zusak - I am the Messenger
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James Joyce - Dubliners
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Bill Bryson - A Short History of Nearly Everything
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Sara Varon - Bake Sale
Stephen King - 11/22/63
Paul Goldstein - Errors and Omissions
Mark Twain - A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur's Court
Steve Martin - Born Standing Up: A Comic's Life
Beverly Cleary - A Girl from Yamhill, a Memoir
Kent Haruf - Plainsong
Hope Larson - A Wrinkle in Time, the Graphic Novel
Rudyard Kipling - Kim
Peter Ames Carlin - Bruce
Fran Cannon Slayton - When the Whistle Blows
Neil Young - Waging Heavy Peace
Mark Bego - Aretha Franklin, the Queen of Soul (2012 ed.)
Jenny Lawson - Let's Pretend This Never Happened
J.D. Salinger - Franny and Zooey
Charles Dickens - A Christmas Carol
Timothy Egan - The Big Burn
Deborah Eisenberg - Transactions in a Foreign Currency
Kurt Vonnegut Jr. - Slaughterhouse Five
Kathryn Lance - Pandora's Genes
Cheryl Strayed - Wild
Fyodor Dostoyevsky - The Brothers Karamazov
Jack London - The House of Pride, and Other Tales of Hawaii
Jack Walker - The Extraordinary Rendition of Vincent Dellamaria
Colum McCann - Let the Great World Spin
Niccolò Machiavelli - The Prince
Harper Lee - To Kill a Mockingbird
Emma McLaughlin & Nicola Kraus - The Nanny Diaries
Brian Selznick - The Invention of Hugo Cabret
Sharon Creech - Walk Two Moons
Keith Richards - Life
F. Sionil Jose - Dusk
Natalie Babbitt - Tuck Everlasting
Justin Halpern - S#*t My Dad Says
Mark Herrmann - The Curmudgeon's Guide to Practicing Law
Barry Glassner - The Gospel of Food
Phil Stanford - The Peyton-Allan Files
Jesse Katz - The Opposite Field
Evelyn Waugh - Brideshead Revisited
J.K. Rowling - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
David Sedaris - Holidays on Ice
Donald Miller - A Million Miles in a Thousand Years
Mitch Albom - Have a Little Faith
C.S. Lewis - The Magician's Nephew
F. Scott Fitzgerald - The Great Gatsby
William Shakespeare - A Midsummer Night's Dream
Ivan Doig - Bucking the Sun
Penda Diakité - I Lost My Tooth in Africa
Grace Lin - The Year of the Rat
Oscar Hijuelos - Mr. Ives' Christmas
Madeline L'Engle - A Wrinkle in Time
Steven Hart - The Last Three Miles
David Sedaris - Me Talk Pretty One Day
Karen Armstrong - The Spiral Staircase
Charles Larson - The Portland Murders
Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
Steven D. Stark - Meet the Beatles
Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
Rick Moody - Garden State
Jonathan Schwartz - All in Good Time
David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim
Anthony Holden - Big Deal
Robert J. Spitzer - The Spirit of Leadership
James McManus - Positively Fifth Street
Jeff Noon - Vurt

Road Work

Miles run year to date: 5
At this date last year: 3
Total run in 2017: 113
In 2016: 155
In 2015: 271
In 2014: 401
In 2013: 257
In 2012: 129
In 2011: 113
In 2010: 125
In 2009: 67
In 2008: 28
In 2007: 113
In 2006: 100
In 2005: 149
In 2004: 204
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