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Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Nothin' but the dog in ya

In the Underdog Pool this week, all but one of the 'dogs -- Green Bay -- are the visiting teams. That's not a good omen for any of the gamblers, but we shoulder on. Here are the lines, with the underdogs in caps:

13.5 CINCINNATI at NY Giants
12.5 MIAMI at New England
9.5 OAKLAND at Buffalo
9.5 ST. LOUIS at Seattle
9 NY JETS at San Diego
5.5 KANSAS CITY at Atlanta
5.5 NEW ORLEANS at Denver
5.5 JACKSONVILLE at Indianapolis
5 HOUSTON at Tennessee
4 DETROIT at San Francisco
3.5 CAROLINA at Minnesota
3 ARIZONA at Washington
3 TAMPA BAY at Chicago
3 PITTSBURGH at Philadelphia
3 GREEN BAY vs. Dallas
2.5 CLEVELAND at Baltimore

Unlike the first two weeks, which had some easy picks, this lineup doesn't have anything in it that jumps out. Something brash like a Jets or Raiders win is possible, but hey, not likely. Should we try to make a modest 3 points with Carolina or Arizona?

Readers, I wait on your wisdom. I'm still in second place, but without a win this week, I will likely sink quite a ways in the pool standings. Remember, the underdog that I pick has to win its game outright, without the help of the point spread.

Comments (22)

I can't give you a good reason, and thankfully for you, you have ignored my advice so far............New Orleans.

It is the only one on the list that feels good, for what that's worth. Good Luck!!

I went with Atlanta last week, which was a mistake. Buffalo was the obvious pick, but I got greedy.

MIA was the dog and my pick......oh lord, please don't tell me you actually followed my advice

If there is noting I learned from 4 years in Phoenix, it's that the Card will break your heart EVERY week. And that 115 in the shade is still DARN hot.

noting = anything

Go big -- take the Jets. Favre's looking good.

Jack, less to choose from, but Detroit jumps out big time as the UD pick of the week.

Green Bay at home.

C'mon, Jack. No guts, no glory. Since when have you laid up?
NEW ORLEANS has an axe to grind, they'll beat Denver.
NY JETS over San Diego. Favre has something to prove after last week's mediocre performance.
And Gibby had to be joking about the Lions...It's the first of the Mike Martz hit parade. (That is, he'll enjoy evening the score with old employers this season.)

NO or KC

These are a lousy bunch of games this week. Vegas must not have a clue all the HOMEs are faves.

OK Mark, you got me. I was kidding. Detroit allowed 82 points in the first 2 games and they are really struggling. The newest SF QB (J.T. O'Sullivan) threw for over 321 yards last Sunday, and is a rising (older) star. Nice catch! No pun intended. Jack, I am solid with Mark on his New Orleans pick. His Jet's pick is also a pretty fun choice, but probably not a great choice.


Indy lost to Chicago, and should have lost to Minnesota. And now Bob Sanders is out... when he was out last year, they sucked. JACKSONVILLE!

I will again suggest St. Louis. Imagine the payoff when (if) they finally win a game.

Mr. Bogdanski

Do you by chance remember how many points were needed to win this last year? The reason I ask is I was wondering if the proper strategy is hit "singles" rather than going for a "homerun" each week.

Jacksonville. The Colts are just scraping by.

CAROLINA with Steve Smith back in the line up versus the Vikings with no effective QB.
I hear the Vikings are pulling Jackson for Gus Frerotte.
Panthers are 2-0 with nice wins over San Diego and 'da Bears.

Do you by chance remember how many points were needed to win this last year?

I don't. But the season is waaaaaaaay long, and so I'm inclined to go for middle to large points if anything looks tempting.

The only two games that I think the underdog has a shot at is:

1) Carolina over Minnesota. Minnesota is switching to a career backup QB to carry them, and Carolina has their QB looking like his old self, 2 solid RBs, they are getting Steve Smith back, and their defense is nothing to sneeze at.

2) Cleveland could beat Baltimore. Cleveland has lost to Dallas and Pittsburgh so far, and both those teams are very good, so I think Cleveland is still a bit underrated. I would go with #1 if I were you though.

It is likely that a lot of people making picks outside of these two will score zero, because in every one of these games, the underdog is horrible, traveling across the country, and in some case both horrible and traveling across the country. You'll do good to squeeze 3.5 pts out of this week

Go with the Panthers.

Good luck.

Carolina did me well in Week 1...

Adrian Peterson is Questionable for MIN this week. Combine that with new QB and this one seems like a good pick now

Carolina is a good pick.

Green Bay has a good chance at home. Dallas had a tough game against Philly and a short week to recover.

St. Louis is awful, but could Seattle be even awfuller.

Do you by chance remember how many points were needed to win this last year?

I just looked it up: Last year, 61 points won the pool. I believe there were 19 weeks. That would work out to 3.21 points per week.

This year, with a nice Jacksonville pick, I am at a total of 14.5, or 4.83 per week, so far. Woo hoo!

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