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It's that time again -- time for my call to you to help me make some money. Once again I am participating in a pro football Underdog Pool, the object of which is to pick one team every week that's going to win its game outright despite professional gamblers' predictions that it's going to lose.
Here's is this week's lineup. The underdogs are in caps. To the left are the number of points that they are favored to lose their respective games by. But in order to win, we have to pick a team that's going to win outright -- not just beat the spread. On the other hand, the points are not irrelevant, in that if our pick wins, we get the number of points shown for that game. The player with the most points accumulated by the end of the playoffs wins.
16.5 KANSAS CITY at New England
9.5 CHICAGO at Indianapolis
9 CAROLINA at San Diego
7.5 ST. LOUIS at Philadelphia
6.5 HOUSTON at Pittsburgh
5.5 CLEVELAND vs. Dallas
4 WASHINGTON at Ny giants (Thursday)
3.5 TAMPA BAY at New Orleans
3 MIAMI vs. Ny Jets
3 ATLANTA vs. Detroit
3 TENNESSEE vs. Jacksonville
3 OAKLAND vs. Denver
2.5 MINNESOTA at Green Bay
2.5 SAN FRANCISCO vs. Arizona
1.5 BALTIMORE vs. Cincinnati
1 SEATTLE at Buffalo
See anything there you like? Offhand, I'm thinking maybe Tennessee, Carolina, or Houston, but as I proved last year, I am talking through my hat.
I'd agree that Carolina was a long shot, but its risk and reward ... those 9 points could put you up with a sizable lead in your pool. Carolina does better on the road than at home, if last year is any indication. They'll bring a strong defense against San Diego's newer/recovering offense, but Carolina's offense is outmatched by SD's D. I'd predict this will be a low scoring game where a lucky break for Carolina could carry the game. You're gambling on this pick, but the reward may be worth it.
Tennessee is probably a wild bet: Jacksonville is suffering from some holes in their offense; the Titan's defense should be able to keep control on the game. Titan's offense has its own share of problems, and Jax has a new defense (along with a new coordinator, Gregg Williams). Betting on this game relies on Williams, a great D-Coordinator, not having it together for the Titans to move the ball.
Houston is probably the worst pick. While they're starting it up with their first home season opener, they're going against a play-off Pittsburgh. Houston's big weakness is their pass-defense; Roethlisberger's strength, IMO, is his passing game.
Of your three, I'd pick Carolina for the long-shot points.
Take St. Louis, and anyone against Philly throughout the season - you know McNabb will get injured again, and if it's in your game, they probably lose.
Let's face it, you get the points with the big wins so it's worth the risk even if we get one or two wrong along the way. We got your back, Jack.
Carolina over SD. Chargers never seem to come out of the gate strong.
If you want the sure bet, 9ers over Arizona, but worth 2.5 .... go for the Hail Mary.
My pick is St. Louis over Philly. Both teams suck...I'm just thinking they suck less. It's also a risk reward thing because none of the other picks look that wonderful.
As I recall, last year's winner rode Kansas City's early-season upset over San Diego (16 points, as I recall) all the way to victory. That Carolina game is AWFULLY tempting. Everybody's talking San Diego again this year. I don't see it.
Charamba, Douro 2008
Horse Heaven Hills, Cabernet 2010
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills Pinot Grigio 2011
Avignonesi, Montepulciano 2004
Lorelle, Willamette Valley Pinot Noir 2011
Villa Antinori, Toscana 2007
Mercedes Eguren, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
Lorelle, Columbia Valley Cabernet 2011
Purple Moon, Merlot 2011
Purple Moon, Chardonnnay 2011
Abacela, Vintner's Blend No. 12
Opula Red Blend 2010
Liberte, Pinot Noir 2010
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Indian Wells Red Blend 2010
Woodbridge, Chardonnay 2011
King Estate, Pinot Noir 2011
Famille Perrin, Cotes du Rhone Villages 2010
Columbia Crest, Les Chevaux Red 2010
14 Hands, Hot to Trot White Blend
Familia Bianchi, Malbec 2009
Terrapin Cellars, Pinot Gris 2011
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2009
Campo Viejo, Rioja, Termpranillo 2010
Ravenswood, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2010
Waterbrook, Reserve Merlot 2009
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills, Pinot Grigio 2011
Tarantas, Rose
Chateau Lajarre, Bordeaux 2009
La Vielle Ferme, Rose 2011
Benvolio, Pinot Grigio 2011
Nobilo Icon, Pinot Noir 2009
Lello, Douro Tinto 2009
Quinson Fils, Cotes de Provence Rose 2011
Anindor, Pinot Gris 2010
Buenas Ondas, Syrah Rose 2010
Les Fiefs d'Anglars, Malbec 2009
14 Hands, Pinot Gris 2011
Conundrum 2012
Condes de Albarei, Albariño 2011
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2007
Penelope Sanchez, Garnacha Syrah 2010
Canoe Ridge, Merlot 2007
Atalaya do Mar, Godello 2010
Vega Montan, Mencia
Benvolio, Pinot Grigio
Nobilo Icon, Pinot Noir, Marlborough 2009
Portuga, Rose 2011
Revelation, Chardonnay, Pays d'Oc 2010
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 2005
Monte Alto, Tinto Reserva 2005
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Cabernet, Indian Wells 2009
Espiral, Vinho Rose
Vin-Koru, Pinot Gris 2011
14 Hands, Hot to Trot Red 2009
Rodney Strong, Cabernet, Sonoma 2009
Abacela, Vintner's Blend #11
Portuga, White 2010
La Bourgeoisie, Red 2009
Januik, Red 2009
Three Rivers, River's Red 2008
Kirkland, Alexander Valley Merlot 2008
Muga, Rioja Rose 2010
Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2009
Mauro Molino, Barbera d'Alba 2009
Garda Chiaretto Rose
Columbia Crest, Two Vines Vineyard 10 White
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Pinot Gris, Columbia Valley 2009
L'Hortus, Rose de Saignee 2010
Maculan, Pino & Toi 2008
McKinley Springs, Bombing Range Red 2008
Trader Joe's Pinot Gris 2009
Montes Alpha, Cabernet 2007
Gran Sasso, Sangiovese, Terre di Chieti 2009
Garda, Classico Chiaretto Rose
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 1999
Picos del Montgo, Tempranillo 2008
Chateau de Montmirail, Vacqueyras 2008
La Granja 360, Syrah 2009
Montgras, Carmenere Reserva 2009
Lange, Pinot Gris 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Cabernet 2008
Kirkland, Pinot Grigio 2010
Trader Joe's Coastal Syrah 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Merlot 2008
Trader Joe's Coastal Chardonnay 2009
Vieux Papes Red
Domaine de l'Aujardiere, Chardonnay 2009
Santa Rita, Cabernet, Medalla Real 2007
Penfold's, Koonunga Hill Shiraz Cabernet 2008
Guild, Red, Lot #02 2008
Dievole, Dievolino Sangiovese 2008
Laforet, Burgogne Chardonnay 2009
Columbia Winery, Merlot 2007
Bonterra, Cabernet 2008
Elk Cove, Pinot Gris 2009
Maquis Lien 2006
Scott Paul, Pinot Noir, Le Paulee 2007
The Occasional Book
Neil Young - Waging Heavy Peace
Mark Bego - Aretha Franklin, the Queen of Soul (2012 ed.)
Jenny Lawson - Let's Pretend This Never Happened
J.D. Salinger - Franny and Zooey
Charles Dickens - A Christmas Carol
Timothy Egan - The Big Burn
Deborah Eisenberg - Transactions in a Foreign Currency
Kurt Vonnegut Jr. - Slaughterhouse Five
Kathryn Lance - Pandora's Genes
Cheryl Strayed - Wild
Fyodor Dostoyevsky - The Brothers Karamazov
Jack London - The House of Pride, and Other Tales of Hawaii
Jack Walker - The Extraordinary Rendition of Vincent Dellamaria
Colum McCann - Let the Great World Spin
Niccolò Machiavelli - The Prince
Harper Lee - To Kill a Mockingbird
Emma McLaughlin & Nicola Kraus - The Nanny Diaries
Brian Selznick - The Invention of Hugo Cabret
Sharon Creech - Walk Two Moons
Keith Richards - Life
F. Sionil Jose - Dusk
Natalie Babbitt - Tuck Everlasting
Justin Halpern - S#*t My Dad Says
Mark Herrmann - The Curmudgeon's Guide to Practicing Law
Barry Glassner - The Gospel of Food
Phil Stanford - The Peyton-Allan Files
Jesse Katz - The Opposite Field
Evelyn Waugh - Brideshead Revisited
J.K. Rowling - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
David Sedaris - Holidays on Ice
Donald Miller - A Million Miles in a Thousand Years
Mitch Albom - Have a Little Faith
C.S. Lewis - The Magician's Nephew
F. Scott Fitzgerald - The Great Gatsby
William Shakespeare - A Midsummer Night's Dream
Ivan Doig - Bucking the Sun
Penda Diakité - I Lost My Tooth in Africa
Grace Lin - The Year of the Rat
Oscar Hijuelos - Mr. Ives' Christmas
Madeline L'Engle - A Wrinkle in Time
Steven Hart - The Last Three Miles
David Sedaris - Me Talk Pretty One Day
Karen Armstrong - The Spiral Staircase
Charles Larson - The Portland Murders
Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
Steven D. Stark - Meet the Beatles
Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
Rick Moody - Garden State
Jonathan Schwartz - All in Good Time
David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim
Anthony Holden - Big Deal
Robert J. Spitzer - The Spirit of Leadership
James McManus - Positively Fifth Street
Jeff Noon - Vurt
Road Work
Miles run year to date: 21
At this date last year: 52
Total run in 2012: 129
In 2011: 113
In 2010: 125
In 2009: 67
In 2008: 28
In 2007: 113
In 2006: 100
In 2005: 149
In 2004: 204
In 2003: 269
Comments (20)
In order:
- Tampa
- Oakland
Long shot
- Carolina
Posted by Steve | September 3, 2008 3:58 PM
Cleveland
Minnesota
and
Atlanta
(in order)
Posted by PDXPessimist | September 3, 2008 4:25 PM
I'd agree that Carolina was a long shot, but its risk and reward ... those 9 points could put you up with a sizable lead in your pool. Carolina does better on the road than at home, if last year is any indication. They'll bring a strong defense against San Diego's newer/recovering offense, but Carolina's offense is outmatched by SD's D. I'd predict this will be a low scoring game where a lucky break for Carolina could carry the game. You're gambling on this pick, but the reward may be worth it.
Tennessee is probably a wild bet: Jacksonville is suffering from some holes in their offense; the Titan's defense should be able to keep control on the game. Titan's offense has its own share of problems, and Jax has a new defense (along with a new coordinator, Gregg Williams). Betting on this game relies on Williams, a great D-Coordinator, not having it together for the Titans to move the ball.
Houston is probably the worst pick. While they're starting it up with their first home season opener, they're going against a play-off Pittsburgh. Houston's big weakness is their pass-defense; Roethlisberger's strength, IMO, is his passing game.
Of your three, I'd pick Carolina for the long-shot points.
Posted by Chris Coyle | September 3, 2008 4:37 PM
Chicago, Washington, Atlanta, McCain.
Posted by Bark Munster | September 3, 2008 4:51 PM
If that last one is right, I may be in Canadian Football League pool next year.
Posted by Jack Bog | September 3, 2008 6:14 PM
Take St. Louis, and anyone against Philly throughout the season - you know McNabb will get injured again, and if it's in your game, they probably lose.
Posted by Umpire | September 3, 2008 6:44 PM
Go with a low spread team for the first couple of weeks to see how the teams shake out. I predict San Fransisco over Arizona.
Posted by Travis | September 3, 2008 6:47 PM
Can only help with one. Washington for sure.
Posted by Gibby | September 3, 2008 6:51 PM
Let's face it, you get the points with the big wins so it's worth the risk even if we get one or two wrong along the way. We got your back, Jack.
Carolina over SD. Chargers never seem to come out of the gate strong.
If you want the sure bet, 9ers over Arizona, but worth 2.5 .... go for the Hail Mary.
Posted by Mark Mason | September 3, 2008 6:58 PM
Atlanta -- Lions don't win road games
Washington -- Giants need a D-line and started 0-2 last year
Miami -- Favre isn't in GB anymore.
Posted by Chad | September 3, 2008 8:23 PM
Jack,
That was McCain over Bob Barr.
Posted by Bark Munster | September 3, 2008 10:25 PM
I'm thinking def Denver or New Orleans. They aren't huge dogs, but should get you guaranteed points..
Posted by dr | September 3, 2008 11:09 PM
oooops. Read the whole thing wrong! Disregard two FAVORITE picks above.
That's a bit tougher...the only "sure" thing i see is Seattle, but it's only 1 point. Not really worth it.
Posted by dr | September 3, 2008 11:11 PM
St. Louis is your best bet here. They will really surprise some people this year. I also think Seattle beats Buffalo, but you only get one point.
I think SD crushes Carolina.
Posted by drivin' fool | September 3, 2008 11:52 PM
SEATTLE!!!!!!
Posted by Joseph | September 4, 2008 4:54 AM
Minnesota is a SURE WIN. How they are an underdog, with an excellent defense, stellar running back, and not Favre in GB is beyond me.
My second choice would be Atlanta.
Posted by Larry K | September 4, 2008 8:00 AM
Larry K, I'd agree with you if it was in Minnesota. Don't underestimate the Lambeau advantage.
Posted by drivin' fool | September 4, 2008 10:16 AM
DF - I hear ya. But with 2 relatively untested QBs, I'll take the team with the better D and better RB any day. Side bet? $5.
Posted by Larry K | September 4, 2008 10:24 AM
My pick is St. Louis over Philly. Both teams suck...I'm just thinking they suck less. It's also a risk reward thing because none of the other picks look that wonderful.
Posted by Usual Kevin | September 4, 2008 11:27 AM
go for the Hail Mary
As I recall, last year's winner rode Kansas City's early-season upset over San Diego (16 points, as I recall) all the way to victory. That Carolina game is AWFULLY tempting. Everybody's talking San Diego again this year. I don't see it.
Me? I'm just looking to get on the board.
Posted by Chris Snethen | September 4, 2008 2:32 PM