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Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Didn't take too long 'fore I found out

It's that time again -- time for my call to you to help me make some money. Once again I am participating in a pro football Underdog Pool, the object of which is to pick one team every week that's going to win its game outright despite professional gamblers' predictions that it's going to lose.

Here's is this week's lineup. The underdogs are in caps. To the left are the number of points that they are favored to lose their respective games by. But in order to win, we have to pick a team that's going to win outright -- not just beat the spread. On the other hand, the points are not irrelevant, in that if our pick wins, we get the number of points shown for that game. The player with the most points accumulated by the end of the playoffs wins.

16.5 KANSAS CITY at New England
9.5 CHICAGO at Indianapolis
9 CAROLINA at San Diego
7.5 ST. LOUIS at Philadelphia
6.5 HOUSTON at Pittsburgh
5.5 CLEVELAND vs. Dallas
4 WASHINGTON at Ny giants (Thursday)
3.5 TAMPA BAY at New Orleans
3 MIAMI vs. Ny Jets
3 ATLANTA vs. Detroit
3 TENNESSEE vs. Jacksonville
3 OAKLAND vs. Denver
2.5 MINNESOTA at Green Bay
2.5 SAN FRANCISCO vs. Arizona
1.5 BALTIMORE vs. Cincinnati
1 SEATTLE at Buffalo

See anything there you like? Offhand, I'm thinking maybe Tennessee, Carolina, or Houston, but as I proved last year, I am talking through my hat.

Comments (20)

In order:
- Tampa
- Oakland
Long shot
- Carolina

(in order)

I'd agree that Carolina was a long shot, but its risk and reward ... those 9 points could put you up with a sizable lead in your pool. Carolina does better on the road than at home, if last year is any indication. They'll bring a strong defense against San Diego's newer/recovering offense, but Carolina's offense is outmatched by SD's D. I'd predict this will be a low scoring game where a lucky break for Carolina could carry the game. You're gambling on this pick, but the reward may be worth it.

Tennessee is probably a wild bet: Jacksonville is suffering from some holes in their offense; the Titan's defense should be able to keep control on the game. Titan's offense has its own share of problems, and Jax has a new defense (along with a new coordinator, Gregg Williams). Betting on this game relies on Williams, a great D-Coordinator, not having it together for the Titans to move the ball.

Houston is probably the worst pick. While they're starting it up with their first home season opener, they're going against a play-off Pittsburgh. Houston's big weakness is their pass-defense; Roethlisberger's strength, IMO, is his passing game.

Of your three, I'd pick Carolina for the long-shot points.

Chicago, Washington, Atlanta, McCain.

If that last one is right, I may be in Canadian Football League pool next year.

Take St. Louis, and anyone against Philly throughout the season - you know McNabb will get injured again, and if it's in your game, they probably lose.

Go with a low spread team for the first couple of weeks to see how the teams shake out. I predict San Fransisco over Arizona.

Can only help with one. Washington for sure.

Let's face it, you get the points with the big wins so it's worth the risk even if we get one or two wrong along the way. We got your back, Jack.
Carolina over SD. Chargers never seem to come out of the gate strong.
If you want the sure bet, 9ers over Arizona, but worth 2.5 .... go for the Hail Mary.

Atlanta -- Lions don't win road games
Washington -- Giants need a D-line and started 0-2 last year
Miami -- Favre isn't in GB anymore.


That was McCain over Bob Barr.

I'm thinking def Denver or New Orleans. They aren't huge dogs, but should get you guaranteed points..

oooops. Read the whole thing wrong! Disregard two FAVORITE picks above.

That's a bit tougher...the only "sure" thing i see is Seattle, but it's only 1 point. Not really worth it.

St. Louis is your best bet here. They will really surprise some people this year. I also think Seattle beats Buffalo, but you only get one point.

I think SD crushes Carolina.


Minnesota is a SURE WIN. How they are an underdog, with an excellent defense, stellar running back, and not Favre in GB is beyond me.

My second choice would be Atlanta.

Larry K, I'd agree with you if it was in Minnesota. Don't underestimate the Lambeau advantage.

DF - I hear ya. But with 2 relatively untested QBs, I'll take the team with the better D and better RB any day. Side bet? $5.

My pick is St. Louis over Philly. Both teams suck...I'm just thinking they suck less. It's also a risk reward thing because none of the other picks look that wonderful.

go for the Hail Mary

As I recall, last year's winner rode Kansas City's early-season upset over San Diego (16 points, as I recall) all the way to victory. That Carolina game is AWFULLY tempting. Everybody's talking San Diego again this year. I don't see it.

Me? I'm just looking to get on the board.

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