C a K9 U like? (Jack Bog's Blog)

We had a nice weekend in the pro football underdog pool. Heeding the advice (in all caps, no less!) of Larry K, backed up by Steve, we chose Jacksonville, who squeaked out a win at Indianapolis. A nice 5.5-point pickup on our part.

This puts us in second place in the pool as we head into the fourth weekend -- still ahead of the crazies-like-foxes who somehow called a Miami win over New England, and behind the overall leader in the pool by a mere half-point.

This week's games feature three home 'dogs with big point spreads, which should be tempting for some people. At this hour, there are no lines yet established for Philadephia at Chicago or Baltimore at Pittsburgh; I assume this means that the spreads, if any, on those games will be small.

But spreads be darned, what we're looking for in this pack is an underdog team (in caps) that will win its game outright. See any in here?

11.5 WASHINGTON at Dallas
10 KANSAS CITY vs. Denver
9 OAKLAND vs. San Diego
8 ST. LOUIS vs. Buffalo
7.5 HOUSTON at Jacksonville
7 ATLANTA at Carolina
6 SAN FRANCISCO at New Orleans
3.5 CLEVELAND at Cincinnati
3 MINNESOTA at Tennessee
2 ARIZONA at NY Jets
1 GREEN BAY at Tampa Bay

Boy, nothing's jumping out at me here. Maybe Cleveland? It's still too early in the season for any 1- or 2-point chip shots. I suppose that for the long points (if my underdog wins, I get the number of points they were predicted to lose by), the Lambs or the Niners would be fun, but neither is probably worth the gamble. Is it?

UPDATE, 9/25, 1:22 a.m.: More games for the week added here.

Comments (8)

Let me assure you they WILL loose because I am picking them, but of the teams listed...........ATLANTA would be my pick.

Posted by mp97303 | September 23, 2008 9:19 PM

Hmmm. Now that you mention it, Atlanta might not be a bad pick...

Posted by Jack Bog | September 23, 2008 9:34 PM

Using risk-adjusted point spread methods, my gut says SF, but brain says CLE.

Posted by Steve | September 24, 2008 7:39 AM

After seeing San Francisco play at Seattle, they aren't the train wreck they have been for the last 5 years.

The goats are though - leave the sheep alone. They have one good player (Steven Jackson) and they are misusing him regularly by running him outside rather than up the middle or off-tackle. He's a power guy, not a speed guy.

Posted by MachineShedFred | September 24, 2008 7:56 AM

If you want to go for the gusto, take the Raiders v. the Chargers. The Raiders looked good against a tough Buffalo team in Buffalo last week. It's hard to tell what's really going on with the Chargers, but to be fair, I haven't really dedicated any time to checking into it. Plus, a home win would help Kiffin further stir the more chaotic than usual pot in Raidersland.

Posted by Oscar | September 24, 2008 10:46 AM

No caps this week, that's for sure. I'd be inclined to go with Atlanta. Carolina's close enough to where I would think the home field advantage might be muted a bit, and Michael Turner is a STUD (oops, there are some caps after all).

Can't go with the Niners, as I'm not convinced their pass defense can stand up to Drew Brees, who has been throwing for roughly 15 million yards each week.

Houston/Jacksonville really intrigues me, but for no apparent reason that I can justify. Just feels like it might be time for Jacksonville to lose one...

Posted by Larry K | September 24, 2008 10:58 AM

ATLANTA would be my first pick, but do not overlook SAN FRANCISCO. Without Shockley New Orleans losses a big part of their game. SAN FRAN needs to make a statement and this is their game.

Posted by Mark Mason | September 24, 2008 11:50 AM

Atlanta would also by my pick.

Posted by Kevin | September 24, 2008 2:49 PM

Search this site

About

Clippings

Archives

Links

E-mail, Feeds, 'n' Stuff

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

C a K9 U like?

Comments (8)

Sponsors

In Vino Veritas

The Occasional Book

Road Work