But now these days are gone, I'm not so self-assured
This happened to me last year, too: For the first few weeks of the season, it's not that hard to pick an underdog to win its pro football game outright, but after that, the prospects get much more muddled. Oddsmakers have a lot more information to work with than they did when the season was in its infancy, and so the calls for us gamblers become tougher.
'Dogs that are playing at home are always intriguing, and this week there are five of them. But on the whole, after last week's dud (Atlanta), I haven't got a clue as to which of these might pull out an upset (underdogs in caps):
10 KANSAS CITY at Carolina
7.5 SEATTLE at NY Giants
6.5 MIAMI vs. San Diego
5 WASHINGTON at Philadelphia
4.5 PITTSBURGH at Jacksonville
3.5 DETROIT vs. Chicago
3.5 HOUSTON vs. Indianapolis
3.5 SAN FRANCISCO vs. New England
3.5 MINNESOTA at New Orleans
3 BALTIMORE vs. Tennessee
3 TAMPA BAY at Denver
1 BUFFALO at Arizona
No lines are available yet for Cincinnati at Dallas or Atlanta at Green Bay (the latter being a good candidate for your Crummy Game of the Week).
So help me out! As usual, all theories are welcome, but remember: The team I pick has to win its game outright. The point spread is relevant only in determining how many points in the season-long contest I win if I'm right. I've now dropped to fourth place, 11 points behind the pacesetter, but with most of the long season still ahead of us.
Remember, Washington > Dallas wasn't a good pick because it was likely to happen: It was a good pick because it was likely enough to happen that going for the big points was worth it. Think about it: Cleveland has to beat Cincy over three times as often as the Skins beating the Boys for that pick to be better.
Here's this weeks rankings:
1. Kansas City 2.04
2. Miami 1.97
3. Seattle 1.83
4. Washington 1.52
5. Pittsburgh 1.48
6. Minnesota 1.36
7. Houston 1.33
8. San Fran 1.26
9. Detroit 1.25
10. Baltimore 1.24
11. Tampa Bay 1.15
12. Buffalo 0.49
There's a big dropoff after the top three, so I suggest picking one of those. Notice how bad those 3 and 3.5 point options look: They're just not worth it in the long run. Too risky for too little gain.
That said, I can't even bring myself to advocate strongly for you picking the hapless Chiefs, so if you can't stomach that choice, go with the Fins at home against a Charger team that really struggled to beat Oakland last week. At the very least, don't touch any of the small dogs. Math is on the side of "no guts, no glory".
I only started last week, so my average is a completely sustainable 11.5 points per week ;)
My method is the best possible to use if you acknowledge that you wouldn't actually be a successful gambler betting on these games for real. If you feel like you could beat Vegas, pick any game you want and show your mad handicapping skills. But NFL lines are incredibly efficient and chances are, Vegas knows better than you do.
So these aren't really my picks or my method, it's just what's best based on what the book is saying are the underdog's chances of winning and the points the pool says you'll get if they do. Do you see why it would be silly to bet a 50/50 game for one point instead of an 80/20 game for ten points, though?
First, we've got to get Geek Squad involved with solving our financial problems. I sense greatness here.
Washington will lose to Philly. The mighty Eagles, denied a Super Bowl ring by the Patriots cheating, are due a few breaks.
The thing about the Redskins-Dallas game that stunned me was that the Washington center had two penalties in a 4-down sequence. Both were unrelated to the play, and both caused touchdowns to be called back. And the Skins still won. Jim Zorn - like the Geek Squad - also appears to have the mantle of greatness.
Nice! Perfect, well done, that's exactly it. I won't post it from now on.
A quick note: Of course, use your hunches and don't always pick #1 on the list if you don't like it, as I'm sure this is more about fun to you than money. It's just nice to use that as a guide to pick amongst the best bets.
Jack, quit your kvetching. You know that one big pick and you are right back in the thick of things. WASHINGTON nets you 5 points. SEATTLE (after a bye week) needs this badly. That gets you 7.5 Those are your two best shots at redemption.
The KC game is intriguing. With Huard back at QB, they are enough of a passing threat to create opportunities to run for Larry Johnson. And Carolina, as we have seen, is jekyl and hyde. So, that would be worth a lot of pts if KC plays like it did when they beat Denver last week.
Also, Seattle is tough to pick on the road in the east after a bye at NY, but NY is without its main receiving threat, and they damn near lost to a miserable Cincinnati team at home two weeks ago. Seattle finally has their receiving corps back, and they've been running the ball tough.
Charamba, Douro 2008
Horse Heaven Hills, Cabernet 2010
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills Pinot Grigio 2011
Avignonesi, Montepulciano 2004
Lorelle, Willamette Valley Pinot Noir 2011
Villa Antinori, Toscana 2007
Mercedes Eguren, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
Lorelle, Columbia Valley Cabernet 2011
Purple Moon, Merlot 2011
Purple Moon, Chardonnnay 2011
Abacela, Vintner's Blend No. 12
Opula Red Blend 2010
Liberte, Pinot Noir 2010
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Indian Wells Red Blend 2010
Woodbridge, Chardonnay 2011
King Estate, Pinot Noir 2011
Famille Perrin, Cotes du Rhone Villages 2010
Columbia Crest, Les Chevaux Red 2010
14 Hands, Hot to Trot White Blend
Familia Bianchi, Malbec 2009
Terrapin Cellars, Pinot Gris 2011
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2009
Campo Viejo, Rioja, Termpranillo 2010
Ravenswood, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2010
Waterbrook, Reserve Merlot 2009
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills, Pinot Grigio 2011
Tarantas, Rose
Chateau Lajarre, Bordeaux 2009
La Vielle Ferme, Rose 2011
Benvolio, Pinot Grigio 2011
Nobilo Icon, Pinot Noir 2009
Lello, Douro Tinto 2009
Quinson Fils, Cotes de Provence Rose 2011
Anindor, Pinot Gris 2010
Buenas Ondas, Syrah Rose 2010
Les Fiefs d'Anglars, Malbec 2009
14 Hands, Pinot Gris 2011
Conundrum 2012
Condes de Albarei, Albariño 2011
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2007
Penelope Sanchez, Garnacha Syrah 2010
Canoe Ridge, Merlot 2007
Atalaya do Mar, Godello 2010
Vega Montan, Mencia
Benvolio, Pinot Grigio
Nobilo Icon, Pinot Noir, Marlborough 2009
Portuga, Rose 2011
Revelation, Chardonnay, Pays d'Oc 2010
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 2005
Monte Alto, Tinto Reserva 2005
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Cabernet, Indian Wells 2009
Espiral, Vinho Rose
Vin-Koru, Pinot Gris 2011
14 Hands, Hot to Trot Red 2009
Rodney Strong, Cabernet, Sonoma 2009
Abacela, Vintner's Blend #11
Portuga, White 2010
La Bourgeoisie, Red 2009
Januik, Red 2009
Three Rivers, River's Red 2008
Kirkland, Alexander Valley Merlot 2008
Muga, Rioja Rose 2010
Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2009
Mauro Molino, Barbera d'Alba 2009
Garda Chiaretto Rose
Columbia Crest, Two Vines Vineyard 10 White
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Pinot Gris, Columbia Valley 2009
L'Hortus, Rose de Saignee 2010
Maculan, Pino & Toi 2008
McKinley Springs, Bombing Range Red 2008
Trader Joe's Pinot Gris 2009
Montes Alpha, Cabernet 2007
Gran Sasso, Sangiovese, Terre di Chieti 2009
Garda, Classico Chiaretto Rose
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 1999
Picos del Montgo, Tempranillo 2008
Chateau de Montmirail, Vacqueyras 2008
La Granja 360, Syrah 2009
Montgras, Carmenere Reserva 2009
Lange, Pinot Gris 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Cabernet 2008
Kirkland, Pinot Grigio 2010
Trader Joe's Coastal Syrah 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Merlot 2008
Trader Joe's Coastal Chardonnay 2009
Vieux Papes Red
Domaine de l'Aujardiere, Chardonnay 2009
Santa Rita, Cabernet, Medalla Real 2007
Penfold's, Koonunga Hill Shiraz Cabernet 2008
Guild, Red, Lot #02 2008
Dievole, Dievolino Sangiovese 2008
Laforet, Burgogne Chardonnay 2009
Columbia Winery, Merlot 2007
Bonterra, Cabernet 2008
Elk Cove, Pinot Gris 2009
Maquis Lien 2006
Scott Paul, Pinot Noir, Le Paulee 2007
The Occasional Book
Hope Larson - A Wrinkle in Time, the Graphic Novel
Rudyard Kipling - Kim
Peter Ames Carlin - Bruce
Fran Cannon Slayton - When the Whistle Blows
Neil Young - Waging Heavy Peace
Mark Bego - Aretha Franklin, the Queen of Soul (2012 ed.)
Jenny Lawson - Let's Pretend This Never Happened
J.D. Salinger - Franny and Zooey
Charles Dickens - A Christmas Carol
Timothy Egan - The Big Burn
Deborah Eisenberg - Transactions in a Foreign Currency
Kurt Vonnegut Jr. - Slaughterhouse Five
Kathryn Lance - Pandora's Genes
Cheryl Strayed - Wild
Fyodor Dostoyevsky - The Brothers Karamazov
Jack London - The House of Pride, and Other Tales of Hawaii
Jack Walker - The Extraordinary Rendition of Vincent Dellamaria
Colum McCann - Let the Great World Spin
Niccolò Machiavelli - The Prince
Harper Lee - To Kill a Mockingbird
Emma McLaughlin & Nicola Kraus - The Nanny Diaries
Brian Selznick - The Invention of Hugo Cabret
Sharon Creech - Walk Two Moons
Keith Richards - Life
F. Sionil Jose - Dusk
Natalie Babbitt - Tuck Everlasting
Justin Halpern - S#*t My Dad Says
Mark Herrmann - The Curmudgeon's Guide to Practicing Law
Barry Glassner - The Gospel of Food
Phil Stanford - The Peyton-Allan Files
Jesse Katz - The Opposite Field
Evelyn Waugh - Brideshead Revisited
J.K. Rowling - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
David Sedaris - Holidays on Ice
Donald Miller - A Million Miles in a Thousand Years
Mitch Albom - Have a Little Faith
C.S. Lewis - The Magician's Nephew
F. Scott Fitzgerald - The Great Gatsby
William Shakespeare - A Midsummer Night's Dream
Ivan Doig - Bucking the Sun
Penda Diakité - I Lost My Tooth in Africa
Grace Lin - The Year of the Rat
Oscar Hijuelos - Mr. Ives' Christmas
Madeline L'Engle - A Wrinkle in Time
Steven Hart - The Last Three Miles
David Sedaris - Me Talk Pretty One Day
Karen Armstrong - The Spiral Staircase
Charles Larson - The Portland Murders
Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
Steven D. Stark - Meet the Beatles
Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
Rick Moody - Garden State
Jonathan Schwartz - All in Good Time
David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim
Anthony Holden - Big Deal
Robert J. Spitzer - The Spirit of Leadership
James McManus - Positively Fifth Street
Jeff Noon - Vurt
Road Work
Miles run year to date: 29
At this date last year: 66
Total run in 2012: 129
In 2011: 113
In 2010: 125
In 2009: 67
In 2008: 28
In 2007: 113
In 2006: 100
In 2005: 149
In 2004: 204
In 2003: 269
Comments (15)
I may be "all wet," but at least I gave you fair warning.....
Let me assure you they WILL loose because I am picking them, but of the teams listed...........ATLANTA would be my pick.
Posted by mp97303 | September 23, 2008 9:19 PM
With that being said, here goes nothing...
KANSAS CITY
Nothing else looks good, KC has rediscovered their run game, they look as good as any.
Posted by mp97303 | September 30, 2008 10:00 PM
Washington should be sky-high against Philly. I'm surprised that they're giving 5 on that. Washington could simply win that outright.
Posted by George Seldes | September 30, 2008 10:00 PM
GO BILLS!!!!!
Posted by PDXPessimist | September 30, 2008 10:05 PM
Remember, Washington > Dallas wasn't a good pick because it was likely to happen: It was a good pick because it was likely enough to happen that going for the big points was worth it. Think about it: Cleveland has to beat Cincy over three times as often as the Skins beating the Boys for that pick to be better.
Here's this weeks rankings:
1. Kansas City 2.04
2. Miami 1.97
3. Seattle 1.83
4. Washington 1.52
5. Pittsburgh 1.48
6. Minnesota 1.36
7. Houston 1.33
8. San Fran 1.26
9. Detroit 1.25
10. Baltimore 1.24
11. Tampa Bay 1.15
12. Buffalo 0.49
There's a big dropoff after the top three, so I suggest picking one of those. Notice how bad those 3 and 3.5 point options look: They're just not worth it in the long run. Too risky for too little gain.
That said, I can't even bring myself to advocate strongly for you picking the hapless Chiefs, so if you can't stomach that choice, go with the Fins at home against a Charger team that really struggled to beat Oakland last week. At the very least, don't touch any of the small dogs. Math is on the side of "no guts, no glory".
Posted by Geek Squad | September 30, 2008 10:21 PM
WAS - They are playing good ball and PHI still has Westbrook limping.
Geek Squad - How would your picks have done so far this season? You can only pick one team each weekend, I was curious if your method works.
Posted by Steve | September 30, 2008 10:39 PM
The spreadsheet for this week is here.
Hey, Geek Squad -- how much do I have to pay you to keep that system just between you and me?
8c)
Posted by Jack Bog | September 30, 2008 10:44 PM
I only started last week, so my average is a completely sustainable 11.5 points per week ;)
My method is the best possible to use if you acknowledge that you wouldn't actually be a successful gambler betting on these games for real. If you feel like you could beat Vegas, pick any game you want and show your mad handicapping skills. But NFL lines are incredibly efficient and chances are, Vegas knows better than you do.
So these aren't really my picks or my method, it's just what's best based on what the book is saying are the underdog's chances of winning and the points the pool says you'll get if they do. Do you see why it would be silly to bet a 50/50 game for one point instead of an 80/20 game for ten points, though?
Posted by Geek Squad | September 30, 2008 10:49 PM
First, we've got to get Geek Squad involved with solving our financial problems. I sense greatness here.
Washington will lose to Philly. The mighty Eagles, denied a Super Bowl ring by the Patriots cheating, are due a few breaks.
The thing about the Redskins-Dallas game that stunned me was that the Washington center had two penalties in a 4-down sequence. Both were unrelated to the play, and both caused touchdowns to be called back. And the Skins still won. Jim Zorn - like the Geek Squad - also appears to have the mantle of greatness.
Posted by Bill McDonald | September 30, 2008 10:51 PM
Nice! Perfect, well done, that's exactly it. I won't post it from now on.
A quick note: Of course, use your hunches and don't always pick #1 on the list if you don't like it, as I'm sure this is more about fun to you than money. It's just nice to use that as a guide to pick amongst the best bets.
Good luck!
Posted by Geek Squad | September 30, 2008 10:53 PM
It's a great system, even if it doesn't always work as well as it did last week. Thanks for letting us have it.
Posted by Jack Bog | September 30, 2008 11:30 PM
+1200 is a good estimate for the Dallas/Cincy game, making it too much of a longshot to go for the big points.
Posted by Geek Squad | October 1, 2008 5:41 PM
Miami.
Posted by Kevin | October 2, 2008 2:04 PM
Jack, quit your kvetching. You know that one big pick and you are right back in the thick of things. WASHINGTON nets you 5 points. SEATTLE (after a bye week) needs this badly. That gets you 7.5 Those are your two best shots at redemption.
Posted by Mark Mason | October 3, 2008 7:55 AM
The KC game is intriguing. With Huard back at QB, they are enough of a passing threat to create opportunities to run for Larry Johnson. And Carolina, as we have seen, is jekyl and hyde. So, that would be worth a lot of pts if KC plays like it did when they beat Denver last week.
Also, Seattle is tough to pick on the road in the east after a bye at NY, but NY is without its main receiving threat, and they damn near lost to a miserable Cincinnati team at home two weeks ago. Seattle finally has their receiving corps back, and they've been running the ball tough.
Posted by Tk | October 3, 2008 8:08 PM
Hey! I was right!
Posted by Kevin | October 6, 2008 10:05 AM