By definition, a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. The figures for the 4th quarter of 2007 were just revised downward to 0.6& YoY growth, which (while anemic) is still positive growth. For 2007, real GDP growth was 2.2% (after adjusting for inflation).
I think we are probably entering a recession. That said, the economic definition can only be applied in retrospect, and certainly no sooner than July 2008.
I'd be more concerned the "Chimp" didn't know that gas was headed to $4.00/gallon than his public willingness to predict a recession. What do you expect him to say?
If he's tells it like it is, the Dow 30 would drop 2,000 points and we'd probably see Cheney's lips moving. Pay not attention to the man behind the curtain (shout out to Tenskey!).
The figures for the 4th quarter of 2007 were just revised downward to 0.6& YoY growth, which (while anemic) is still positive growth.
Exactly, which is why we are currently in a recession now, but it won't be official until July.
If he's tells it like it is, the Dow 30 would drop 2,000 points and we'd probably see Cheney's lips moving.
Why is Bush and the Fed obsessed with keeping the Dow afloat. Most Americans don't have money in the stock market, but they do drive to work. These constant rate cuts, while stabalizing the stock market, are killing the dollar, and subsequently dramatically raising gas prices. I say let the Dow burn, and keep inflation low.
While I'm no economist, I fail to see how lowering the FED interest rate will provide a stimulus when the only borrowers who now qualify for loans do not need them.The loan market is flat. As I recall, the last rate reduction had little effect on the stock market. What it does influence negatively are savings/money market interest earnings. So, increase the FED rate, no resulting stimulus, but instead penalize savings? Doesn't make alot of sense to me.6 month T-securities which produced a 5% APY last year are now below 3%. While I have little sympathy for the Chinese who snapped these up, or Bush and Cheney who converted stock holdings to T-securities, there are alot of retirement beneficiaries who should be screaming -stop to the FED. Wait until next years earnings statements are issued, then thank Bernanke for manipulations which do not work in this economy.
"Chimp wisdom ... combination of intelligence and honesty ...." Jack, sarcasm is wasted on inert minds, stuck in one place without the capacity of another p.o.v. -- 'on the other hand,' 'the flipside of the same coin' -- whereat is the perspective required to see parody humor in the first place. So, be it proposed: Chimp wisdom: a combination of stupid brain retardation and dishonest lying speech.
What is it about the demented rightists that perceives in every occurrence of Truth an insulting attack on their self-delusion, (in the grip of their self-told false myth that they are sensible), which is nonsense and always makes them feel fair Justice is an infliction of "nasty" on them? Truth is, we all are born and we all die, and the unmatured, inert-brain rightists are so paralyzed thoughtless by their fear of death, that they can only think equanimity is 'being nasty to' -- death is 'picking on' -- them. (Study shows most significance of correlation in: being driven mad, insane, with 'anxiety arising from mortality salience'.)
Holler back, Mister Tee. I'm unsure which facet of the 'shadowy overlord' controllers you expect me to ply and pile on, in reply to your mention of 'Cheney.' He ain't the ventriloquist speaking for sock-puppet Dumbo Chimp, don'tcha know. (Hey, jbl, subhuman 'chimp' is a softened truth, giving the benefit of a doubt, for that spongebrain syphillitic pus-head psychopathic cretin ... who you worship.)
The controllers of 'your' world, Mr.T, in The Economy, the Market, the price fixing of gas and oil, the numbering of 'our' days in each separate file kept on every individual, ... the price of tea in China, is most assuredly NOT Cheney, another mere minion, mouth moving as another voice speaks. Who (in '68) first spotted and then raised up the gelatinous glob of puke from the dismal swamp, and set him way out of his league in office? The born-monstrous Herbert, and Henry, that's who, ("behind the curtain"). That would be G. Hitler Worker Bushbutcher, and the Killing-er One.
Cheney is a walking stroke-on-a-stick, a coronary under remote control to explode blown-up in any august Assembly where he's allowed entry. It looks like sewer-side but it's murder.
We most certainly "aren't in recession right now", statistically speaking.
We had 0.6% positive GDP growth in the 4th quarter of 2007. You can't call a recession until you have NEGATIVE GDP.
We may be entering a recession, but that can't be known with certainty until (at least) 6 months from now.
GDP calculations are a lagging indicator: they can only tell you what already happened. The Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) are certainly declining, a sign of slowing growth rates. But they haven't indicated that recession is inevitable, merely more likely.
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Comments (12)
Posting this message at 3:45 AM on Feb 29. Only 325 days, 20 Hrs, 13 Mins, and 37.5 Seconds left with this clown in office.
Posted by philip | February 29, 2008 3:47 AM
We're already in a recession, and it's only going to get worse.
It's not all Bush's fault, but he sure isn't help things any. Somehow I don't think he's encouraging Bernake to raise rates.
Posted by Justin | February 29, 2008 5:50 AM
By definition, a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. The figures for the 4th quarter of 2007 were just revised downward to 0.6& YoY growth, which (while anemic) is still positive growth. For 2007, real GDP growth was 2.2% (after adjusting for inflation).
I think we are probably entering a recession. That said, the economic definition can only be applied in retrospect, and certainly no sooner than July 2008.
I'd be more concerned the "Chimp" didn't know that gas was headed to $4.00/gallon than his public willingness to predict a recession. What do you expect him to say?
If he's tells it like it is, the Dow 30 would drop 2,000 points and we'd probably see Cheney's lips moving. Pay not attention to the man behind the curtain (shout out to Tenskey!).
Posted by Mister Tee | February 29, 2008 6:49 AM
The figures for the 4th quarter of 2007 were just revised downward to 0.6& YoY growth, which (while anemic) is still positive growth.
Exactly, which is why we are currently in a recession now, but it won't be official until July.
If he's tells it like it is, the Dow 30 would drop 2,000 points and we'd probably see Cheney's lips moving.
Why is Bush and the Fed obsessed with keeping the Dow afloat. Most Americans don't have money in the stock market, but they do drive to work. These constant rate cuts, while stabalizing the stock market, are killing the dollar, and subsequently dramatically raising gas prices. I say let the Dow burn, and keep inflation low.
Posted by Justin | February 29, 2008 7:29 AM
Bush knows what's up, he's just not talking. We have ways of dealing with people like that, don't we?
Posted by telecom | February 29, 2008 8:23 AM
While I'm no economist, I fail to see how lowering the FED interest rate will provide a stimulus when the only borrowers who now qualify for loans do not need them.The loan market is flat. As I recall, the last rate reduction had little effect on the stock market. What it does influence negatively are savings/money market interest earnings. So, increase the FED rate, no resulting stimulus, but instead penalize savings? Doesn't make alot of sense to me.6 month T-securities which produced a 5% APY last year are now below 3%. While I have little sympathy for the Chinese who snapped these up, or Bush and Cheney who converted stock holdings to T-securities, there are alot of retirement beneficiaries who should be screaming -stop to the FED. Wait until next years earnings statements are issued, then thank Bernanke for manipulations which do not work in this economy.
Posted by genop | February 29, 2008 9:44 AM
"Chimp wisdom ... combination of intelligence and honesty ...." Jack, sarcasm is wasted on inert minds, stuck in one place without the capacity of another p.o.v. -- 'on the other hand,' 'the flipside of the same coin' -- whereat is the perspective required to see parody humor in the first place. So, be it proposed: Chimp wisdom: a combination of stupid brain retardation and dishonest lying speech.
What is it about the demented rightists that perceives in every occurrence of Truth an insulting attack on their self-delusion, (in the grip of their self-told false myth that they are sensible), which is nonsense and always makes them feel fair Justice is an infliction of "nasty" on them? Truth is, we all are born and we all die, and the unmatured, inert-brain rightists are so paralyzed thoughtless by their fear of death, that they can only think equanimity is 'being nasty to' -- death is 'picking on' -- them. (Study shows most significance of correlation in: being driven mad, insane, with 'anxiety arising from mortality salience'.)
Holler back, Mister Tee. I'm unsure which facet of the 'shadowy overlord' controllers you expect me to ply and pile on, in reply to your mention of 'Cheney.' He ain't the ventriloquist speaking for sock-puppet Dumbo Chimp, don'tcha know. (Hey, jbl, subhuman 'chimp' is a softened truth, giving the benefit of a doubt, for that spongebrain syphillitic pus-head psychopathic cretin ... who you worship.)
The controllers of 'your' world, Mr.T, in The Economy, the Market, the price fixing of gas and oil, the numbering of 'our' days in each separate file kept on every individual, ... the price of tea in China, is most assuredly NOT Cheney, another mere minion, mouth moving as another voice speaks. Who (in '68) first spotted and then raised up the gelatinous glob of puke from the dismal swamp, and set him way out of his league in office? The born-monstrous Herbert, and Henry, that's who, ("behind the curtain"). That would be G. Hitler Worker Bushbutcher, and the Killing-er One.
Cheney is a walking stroke-on-a-stick, a coronary under remote control to explode blown-up in any august Assembly where he's allowed entry. It looks like sewer-side but it's murder.
Posted by Tenskwatawa | February 29, 2008 10:09 AM
"U.S. households own individual stocks"
Over half of U.S. households own equities.
Posted by butch | February 29, 2008 10:37 AM
He has almost zero credibility.
In hindsight, isn't it a wonder the Texas Rangers stayed solvent? Thanks goodness for THAT!
Anyway, true or false, he ain't about to utter the "R" word during an election year.
Posted by Dave | February 29, 2008 12:55 PM
I don't think.
We're headed into a recession.
May Bush just uttered two consecutive honest statements for the first time in his Presidency.
Posted by ejs | February 29, 2008 2:03 PM
I don't think.
We're headed into a recession.
May Bush just uttered two consecutive honest statements for the first time in his Presidency.
ROTFLMMFAO!!!
Posted by none | February 29, 2008 3:28 PM
Justin,
We most certainly "aren't in recession right now", statistically speaking.
We had 0.6% positive GDP growth in the 4th quarter of 2007. You can't call a recession until you have NEGATIVE GDP.
We may be entering a recession, but that can't be known with certainty until (at least) 6 months from now.
GDP calculations are a lagging indicator: they can only tell you what already happened. The Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) are certainly declining, a sign of slowing growth rates. But they haven't indicated that recession is inevitable, merely more likely.
Learn more here:
http://economics.about.com/cs/businesscycles/a/economic_ind.htm
Posted by Mister Tee | March 1, 2008 11:40 AM